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2019 Draft Discussion


jleisher

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On ‎9‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 5:43 PM, CWood21 said:

No.  You made the comment that the Packers should trade the pick for a veteran EDGE, and I asked which one was.  If the option is available, I'd love to know which one is which is what I'm getting at.  Would I love to get a veteran EDGE?  Absolutely, but I'm not going to discuss a hypothetical that isn't realistic.

I agree, but who ever thought Gruden would trade the best defensive player to da Bears?

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1 hour ago, ReadyToThump said:

They've both been piss poor

Pass rush will have their opportunities this week. Buffalo has allowed the most sacks in the league with 14. The interior line is getting most of the pressure which is what we've heard all offseason. The safety position is the bigger surprise to me. Brice isnt a coverage safety. He needs to be playing in the box which really hampers the creativity of the defense. Having safeties that you can play deep or at the LOS gives a huge advantage to hiding coverages.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Green Bay: Devin White, LB, LSU
Jake Ryan’s torn ACL exposed Green Bay’s thin linebacker corps this season. White has 66 tackles and seven of those for loss this season. He has range and versatility, and would be a great fit in Mike Pettine’s system.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/17/mock-draft-2019-justin-herbert-new-york-giants-qb

Rotoworld:

The Draft Network's Jon Ledyard believes that LSU junior LB Devin White has seen his stock rise after his performance against Auburn on Saturday.
White's stock was pretty darn high coming into the year, but he's exceeded expectations, which seems crazy. "He’s hitting and wrapping with authority right now, and while his mental processing is still a bit inconsistent, White seems to be seeing things much cleaner in 2018," Ledyard writes. White doesn't have ideal size (6'0/240) but his speed and playmaking skills are impossible to ignore. This is a special defensive football player. Sep 17 - 6:24 PM
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On 9/23/2018 at 9:21 PM, Kenrik said:

The pass rush hasnt been bad. The safety play gas been worse.

As Ray said it's interesting. I would say our Scheme to pass rush when needed is good/improved. We seem to get home when we need to but i see more blitz get homes then pure one on one wins from our Edge guys. Perry has been pretty bad unless he's knocking passes down or one good pass rush. CM3 well that's a different story that I'd leave to those that have a better eye for what he's been asked to do. AG or a few others.

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On 9/25/2018 at 7:32 AM, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

In my ideal world, the best players available would be 2 defensive ends and a OT with the first three picks, and all would have starting ability.  Then I would re-sign Clay Matthews at a reasonable amount to play MLB in a 4-3 system.

Now, back to reality after brief moment of insanity.

Nothing wrong with this i would not jump on OT for sure in round 2 i'd leave that for BPA if its' a OT great but if a top TE, S, ILB or something of interest is there i'd jump on that before OT could live with a 3rd rounder. 2 Edge and or Edge and power DT, pass rusher ALA fletcher Cox I'd take that with one first and Edge:)

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What happens when you draft non-premium positions in the NFL over the past 4 years:

That's the 2015 NFL draft, 2016 NFL draft 2017 NFL draft and 2018 NFL draft.  Point out any one of these players you'd rather have right now than what we got. 

FYI, I rounded UP to make these statistics look BETTER.  Especially in yards for receivers.  I rounded up to the higher 100 on every one of them. 

INTERIOR LINEBACKER:

236 games Total.  Average of 3 tackles a game, .09 sacks per game, .03 interceptions per game.

2015
Shaq Thompson - 47 games.  131 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 interception.
Stephone Anthony - 40 games.  94 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception.

2016
Darron Lee - 34 games 137 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 interceptions

2017
Haason Reddick - 23 games, 39 tackles, 4.5 sacks
Jarrad Davis - 19 games, 91 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 interception
Reuben Foster - 14 games, 81 tackles,

2018
Roquan Smith - 5 games, 31 tackles, 1 sack
Tremaine Edmunds - 6 games, 32 tackles, 1 sack
Leighton Vander Esch - 6 games, 39 tackles
Rashaan Evans - 5 games, 11 tackles

INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINEMEN:

Average PFF score of 58.7

2015:
Cam Irving - Two teams, current PFF rating, 54.3

2016
Joshua Garnett - 52.7 PFF rating

2018
Quenton Nelson Can't Miss Super Duper Man - 68.3 PFF rating
Frank Ragnow - 60.6 PFF rating
Billy Price - 57.7 PFF rating
 

WIDE RECEIVER:

372 total games3 receptions per game38 yards per game.22 touchdowns per game

2015:
Breshad Perriman - 27 games, 43 receptions, 600 yards, 3 touchdowns
Phillip Dorsett - 47 games, 82 receptions, 1200 yards, 5 touchdowns
Amari Cooper - 52 games.  225 receptions, 3,100 yards, 19 touchdowns
Kevin White - 10 games.  21 receptions, 200 yards. 
DeVante Parker - 44 games, 141 receptions, 2,000 yards, 8 touchdowns
Nelson Agholor - 50 games, 153 receptions, 1,800 yards, 12 touchdowns

2016
Corey Coleman - 19 games, 56 receptions, 800 yards, 5 touchdowns
Will Fuller - 19 games, 96 receptions, 1400 yards, 12 touchdowns
Josh Doctson - 22 games, 45 receptions, 700 yards, 5 touchdowns
Laquon Treadwell - 31 games, 40 receptions, 400 yards, 1 touchdown

2017
John Ross - 7 games, 7 receptions, 80 yards, 2 touchdowns
Corey Davis - 17 games, 61 receptions, 800 yards, 1 touchdown
Mike Williams - 16 games, 27 receptions, 400 yards, 3 touchdowns

2018
DJ Moore - 5 games, 10 receptions, 200 yards, 1 TD
Calvin Ridley - 6 games, 22 receptions, 400 yards, 6 touchdowns

TIGHT END:

61 total games2.9 Receptions per game39.5 yards per game.33 touchdowns per game.

2017
OJ Howard - 19 games, 41 receptions, 800 yards, 8 touchdowns
Evan Engram - 18 games, 74 receptions, 900 yards, 7 touchdowns
David Njoku - 22 games, 59 receptions, 700 yards, 5 touchdowns

2018
Hayden Hurst - 2 games, 1 reception, 7 yards
 

Conclusion:

Devin White is not any different than any of those previous ILB prospects.  Not different whatsoever.  Just like Roquan wasn't any different from the undersized ILBs before him as far back as you can go.  Even when they hit, you've got a good player at the least important position.  We've got one of the best ILBs in the game right now. 

We've got Blake currently rated at 80 on PFF. 
Clay - 52
Perry - 58

Let's say PFF is 100% accurate.  Is there anybody here who would not trade Black Martinez and Nick Perry for a pass rusher rated 70 and an ILB rated 58?  ANYBODY? 

By posting this, I am trying to show two factors in drafting non-premium positions: 

1. Non-premium positions have been busting at an alarming rate the past 4 drafts.
2. Even if they're good, anybody would take a lesser player at a more important position.

Let's define GREAT as 90+, GOOD as 80+, OKAY as 70+, AVERAGE as 60+

A GOOD OT is better than a GREAT IOL.
An OKAY pass rusher is better than a GOOD ILB.
An AVERAGE CB is better than an OKAY WR.

And on ad nauseum.  Positional value has to supersede two full rankings.

If you're going to draft an ILB, you have to believe that ILB is going to be GREAT while the best available pass rusher/OT/CB is only going to be OKAY. 

Looking at history over the past 4 years of drafting, it's clear that those positions aren't thriving in the NFL anyway. 

 

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That's a lot of great work @Outpost31, but I don't expect most rookies to be very impactful at all their first year. I understand we are in a different situation right now where we have glaring needs and need to produce right awaw as our window closes. But it's hardly fair to just use their rookie seasons

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Just now, JBURGE said:

That's a lot of great work @Outpost31, but I don't expect most rookies to be very impactful at all their first year. I understand we are in a different situation right now where we have glaring needs and need to produce right awaw as our window closes. But it's hardly fair to just use their rookie seasons

That's NOT just their rookie seasons. 

The PFF grade of the guards taken before this year reflect their CURRENT grade.  As in THIS year. 

The receivers taken in 2015 have their entire careers reflected in those numbers.  Cooper, in spite of lots of promise, is looking more and more like a bust.  In fact, not a single receiver taken in 2015 or 2016 looks like anything but a hard bust. 

The inside linebackers... Those are their CAREER numbers.  So you're looking at 131 career tackles out of Shaq Thompson over 3.25 years. 

For comparison, Blake Martinez in his second year (single year) matched Stephone Anthony's entire career in sacks, interceptions and was 3 tackles behind.  So in 16 games, Martinez had 3 less tackles than Anthony had in 40 games. 

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