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2019 Draft Discussion

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Gaming the draft. This is a predictive exercise where you examine all the other teams needs, especially their urgent needs, and compare it to the positional strengths in the draft. 

In this draft for example, lets look at the OT position. There is a probable round one group (J.Taylor, A.Dillard, and if you like them at OT J.Williams and C.Ford) followed by a tiers two and three group (and you can decide who is in tier 2 and who is in 3), guys like D.Risner, K.McGary, G.Little, Y.Cajuste T.Howard, D.Edwards, maybe M.Scharping. So if you want one of the highest quality starters you might plan ahead to attempt to get OT before (say) pick 25. If you are good with taking a slightly bigger risk or ok with getting what might be a slightly less talented player, then you take a punt at the tail end of round one or in round two. By round three the more obvious starter-level OT prospects are likely to be down to virtually nothing, maybe just one guy. Looking at this grouping, and comparing it with your and other team needs, you can start making guesses at what other teams might do and how that might impact who will be left.

You can plan your draft strategy beforehand, though as the draft unfolds you need to look at your plans and see if they need adjusting on the fly.  This gaming the system continues all through the draft, noting what each team picks, how that fills their positional needs, how that affects who may be left at a later pick.

What does all this mean. Well, a great many mock drafts I've done with loads of different big boards, suggest what I said above at OT. It looks like the value in this draft at Free Safety is in round 2 (and maybe the odd guy in 3), WR in rounds 3/4, and Center and RB in rounds 4/5. Some positions like Edge and DL seem to have prospects all through the draft. The tiers in these positions are more indistinct as you go through the rounds, just a steady decline of overall talent, or players with increasingly large holes in their overall game. There might be a fairly clear top tier at these positions, but it becomes hard to tier the positions further down the draft. So, if you need an Edge or DL, you just get one whenever you want,  it's the quality of player you require that determines where you pull the trigger, because tiers at these positions are fuzzy (at least they are to me).

Edited by OneTwoSixFive
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I'm really hoping we take a shot at one of these safeties. 

Part of me thinks (hopes) that Amos' style of play gives the safety next to him a ton of comfortably allowing them to be aggressive and ease the learning curve.  I'm really hoping we grab one of these two guys. 

Darnell Savage

Love his SPEED, really think he is going to be the best DEEP safety in this class. I'm sick of the in the box safeties, its not 1994 anymore. 

Savage looks like he can play near the LOS, but his skill set could lead to a stud deep safety 

Nasir Adderley 

I like him, not as much as Savage though. Would not want him at pick 30. 44 or later. He looks to me like a more aggressive/thicker built Randall, I dont know if its the jersey# or what. 

I know most of you are against grabbing White, but a defense with what we've added this offseason now add White manning the middle with Martinenz, Savage at free safety with Amos to help him a long and all of our young CBs, that is looking like a fast, nasty defense. 

 

 

Edited by tredpack

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31 minutes ago, tredpack said:

I'm really hoping we take a shot at one of these safeties. 

Part of me thinks (hopes) that Amos' style of play gives the safety next to him a ton of comfortably allowing them to be aggressive and ease the learning curve.  I'm really hoping we grab one of these two guys. 

Darnell Savage

Love his SPEED, really think he is going to be the best DEEP safety in this class. I'm sick of the in the box safeties, its not 1994 anymore. 

Savage looks like he can play near the LOS, but his skill set could lead to a stud deep safety 

Nasir Adderley 

I like him, not as much as Savage though. Would not want him at pick 30. 44 or later. He looks to me like a more aggressive/thicker built Randall, I dont know if its the jersey# or what. 

I know most of you are against grabbing White, but a defense with what we've added this offseason now add White manning the middle with Martinenz, Savage at free safety with Amos to help him a long and all of our young CBs, that is looking like a fast, nasty defense. 

 

 

In the box safeties are more in demand than ever. They're just Safety/CB hybrids as opposed to Safety/LB hybrids. Somebody has to know their zone concepts and be able to run with faster TEs.

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I'm just looking at WRs and I've just started watching N'Keal Harry tape and my instant reaction without putting on the tape is DeAngelo Yancy. They feel similar- however i'm sure that will change the more I look into Harry.

AJ Brown has some interesting vibes. Built like a RB making him difficult to tackle but also has the speed to get behind defences. He can create matchup issues for defences as he can be versatile enough to play both outside and in the slot. However I have noted that he did not play much outside receiver in college, mainly used in the slot and that may hurt his draft stock a bit but he certainly has the size and speed to become an outside receiver but if that's true then why did his college team not play him exclusively outside? Watching his interviews, he got an immature body language, confident but immature. Not a deal breaker and he has some talent and the skillset to play in the NFL.

I really like Parris Campbell. So quick. I think he would be excellent in the slot but he can play outside too for the deeper balls. Comfortable catching the ball. Interviews shows a likeable, mature and even keeled personality. I have stated previously that like the Rams and 49ers I believe LaFleur too will want a speed type opposite Adams. I think he fits the bill perfectly. Will he fall to 30 or to the 2nd round? probably not.

Marquise Brown can certainly be a De'Sean Jackson type, he could also be a Cobb type too. He can be very versatile if used correctly but 166lbs is freaking scary, I don't think i've ever seen a top rated player come into the NFL this light. I tell you what, whilst he is very quick I don't think his speed is elite like Tyreek Hill. He was not used as a returner, he was not used on end-arounds, does that hint to his limitations? It's difficult to project his value despite his obvious playmaking ability. Watching his interviews his personality does not jump out, very chilled, quiet. I think he's strongly influenced by Antonio Brown. I think behind his quiet demeanor he has an ego. Not necessarily a bad thing but something to note - He obviously embraced his 'Hollywood' nickname and his instagram handle is 'Primetime', a clue towards his personality.  I think he will put in the work and if successful I think that will bring out his ego more which is something to consider in terms of locker room dynamics. Taking everything into consideration plus his injury suggest late 2nd, early 3rd.  If I was the Packers I would exhaust all my other top receiver options first before running to the podium to pick him. I like him but I don't love him to be banging on the table come draft day.

DK Metcalf obviously pops out on tape due to his excellent catches on deep balls but it is concerning that he had so little college production and limited route tree. I find it hard to read on his interviews. He doesn't sound smart. His answers are pretty bland and lacks personality. However he can do things that no other WR can do, he's quick, strong and despite his three cone he appears agile enough to move about and avoid tackles. He clearly worked hard on his body and on his craft and its possible he has the attitude required to take on coaching and succeed at NFL level. Having said that if he worked hard on his craft then why did he not gain a bigger role on the offence? Ultimately it depends on what he's like between the ears and the type of QB throwing to him to bring the best out of him. Someone pointed out on Reddit that players with Metcalf level of production in college don't usually succeed in the NFL. He complied a large list of all the players and not one was a pro bowler or an all pro. Classic boom or bust. I don't think he's the right prospect for the Packers and nor the right kind of receiver for Rodgers. Rodgers is not a chuck the ball up type and his low interception numbers reflects that mindset. He likes receivers who is quick, generate separation, have good route skills and have sure hands. Driver, Jones, Adams, Jennings, Cobb are classic examples of the type of receiver Rodgers works best with. I wonder if Gute will go back to looking at those type of receivers or will he continue to look at H/W/S prospects like Metcalf.

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17 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

In the box safeties are more in demand than ever. They're just Safety/CB hybrids as opposed to Safety/LB hybrids. Somebody has to know their zone concepts and be able to run with faster TEs.

Sure, but for our team? We've beat the Safety/LB hybrid to death. It has not worked out. 

For the roster we have. Give me a Saftey/CB hybrid as oppose to the Safety/LB hybrid. 

Point being, this roster needs  a guy at safety that covers the deep part of the field. We've got Jones, Amos, Burkes, Martinez, hell even Jackson or Alexander to run with the tightends. I want a guy that can stop the big play from happening. Brice and Clinton-Dix were not the going to make that happen. They belonged near the LOS. 

To me, Rapp, Thompson, and Abram come across as more of the same. Another Clinton-Dix , Josh Jones, Brice, Burnett--personally, I'm done with that mold playing at safety. 

 

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48 minutes ago, Chili said:

I'm just looking at WRs and I've just started watching N'Keal Harry tape and my instant reaction without putting on the tape is DeAngelo Yancy. They feel similar- however i'm sure that will change the more I look into Harry.

AJ Brown has some interesting vibes. Built like a RB making him difficult to tackle but also has the speed to get behind defences. He can create matchup issues for defences as he can be versatile enough to play both outside and in the slot. However I have noted that he did not play much outside receiver in college, mainly used in the slot and that may hurt his draft stock a bit but he certainly has the size and speed to become an outside receiver but if that's true then why did his college team not play him exclusively outside? Watching his interviews, he got an immature body language, confident but immature. Not a deal breaker and he has some talent and the skillset to play in the NFL.

I really like Parris Campbell. So quick. I think he would be excellent in the slot but he can play outside too for the deeper balls. Comfortable catching the ball. Interviews shows a likeable, mature and even keeled personality. I have stated previously that like the Rams and 49ers I believe LaFleur too will want a speed type opposite Adams. I think he fits the bill perfectly. Will he fall to 30 or to the 2nd round? probably not.

Marquise Brown can certainly be a De'Sean Jackson type, he could also be a Cobb type too. He can be very versatile if used correctly but 166lbs is freaking scary, I don't think i've ever seen a top rated player come into the NFL this light. I tell you what, whilst he is very quick I don't think his speed is elite like Tyreek Hill. He was not used as a returner, he was not used on end-arounds, does that hint to his limitations? It's difficult to project his value despite his obvious playmaking ability. Watching his interviews his personality does not jump out, very chilled, quiet. I think he's strongly influenced by Antonio Brown. I think behind his quiet demeanor he has an ego. Not necessarily a bad thing but something to note - He obviously embraced his 'Hollywood' nickname and his instagram handle is 'Primetime', a clue towards his personality.  I think he will put in the work and if successful I think that will bring out his ego more which is something to consider in terms of locker room dynamics. Taking everything into consideration plus his injury suggest late 2nd, early 3rd.  If I was the Packers I would exhaust all my other top receiver options first before running to the podium to pick him. I like him but I don't love him to be banging on the table come draft day.

DK Metcalf obviously pops out on tape due to his excellent catches on deep balls but it is concerning that he had so little college production and limited route tree. I find it hard to read on his interviews. He doesn't sound smart. His answers are pretty bland and lacks personality. However he can do things that no other WR can do, he's quick, strong and despite his three cone he appears agile enough to move about and avoid tackles. He clearly worked hard on his body and on his craft and its possible he has the attitude required to take on coaching and succeed at NFL level. Having said that if he worked hard on his craft then why did he not gain a bigger role on the offence? Ultimately it depends on what he's like between the ears and the type of QB throwing to him to bring the best out of him. Someone pointed out on Reddit that players with Metcalf level of production in college don't usually succeed in the NFL. He complied a large list of all the players and not one was a pro bowler or an all pro. Classic boom or bust. I don't think he's the right prospect for the Packers and nor the right kind of receiver for Rodgers. Rodgers is not a chuck the ball up type and his low interception numbers reflects that mindset. He likes receivers who is quick, generate separation, have good route skills and have sure hands. Driver, Jones, Adams, Jennings, Cobb are classic examples of the type of receiver Rodgers works best with. I wonder if Gute will go back to looking at those type of receivers or will he continue to look at H/W/S prospects like Metcalf.

My problem with Parris Campbell is that he’s never been used as a deep threat with all that speed. I think Ben Fennell said he’s only ever caught 2 passes that went more than 20 yards in the air before the reception?

I want a WR with insane deep speed, but I want to know he actually knows what he’s doing in running those deep routes and can track a ball out there. 

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55 minutes ago, Isherwood said:

My problem with Parris Campbell is that he’s never been used as a deep threat with all that speed.

Also he's lazy AF running routes.

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What I learned from reading this thread:

1) Never draft a C or G in round 1. Also never draft a WR, ILB, TE, or RB in round 1.

That leaves only QB, T, DL, Edge and DB as options for 1-12.

2) There are no round 1 worthy DBs this year.

3) There is an abundance of DL that will be available in rounds 2-4, so don't draft one in round 1.

4) The Edge prospects who will be available at 1-12 have some warts, mainly they don't fit Pettine's scheme. Best to pass on them than risk a bust. That leaves only T and QB for options at 1-12. 

5) Rodgers will play into his 40's, so not a good time to draft a QB.

That means Dilliard has to be the number 1 pick. But what if he's gone by 1-12? Trade down! And pray we never have this horrible, high draft position again! :$

 

Edited by Mr. Fussnputz
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The slant with Metcalf is getting ridiculous. You guys do realize he got hurt right? Played 6 full games, had at least 80 yards AND a TD in 5 of the 6, total BS that he "lacked production." Guy declared as a sophomore. He had 650 yards and 7 TDs as a freshman in the SEC. AJ Brown had 410 and 2, Deebo Samuel had 150 and 1.

If you're going to come down on Metcalf, at least do it with facts and not spin.

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8 hours ago, beekay414 said:

I'm having a hard time taking TDN seriously. At this point, I feel it's not any better than Fanspeak or First Pick. This was the mock I just pulled off.

1.12 - Ed Oliver | IDL | Houston
1.30 - Nasir Adderley | SAF | Delaware
2.44 - Marquise Brown | WR | Oklahoma
3.75 - Dawson Knox | TE | Ole Miss
4.114 - Joe Giles-Harris | ILB | Duke
4.118 - Bobby Evans | OT | Oklahoma
5.150 - Jalen Jelks | EDGE | Oregon
6.185 - Devine Ozigbo | RB | Nebraska
6.194 - Lukas Denis | SAF | Boston College
7.226 - TJ Edwards | ILB | Wisconsin

You could argue that every one of those picks goes a round or 2 higher. Oliver goes top 5, Adderley goes top 25, Brown goes 1st round, Knox goes early 2nd, Giles-Harris is a day 2 guy, Bobby Evans is arguably a day 2 guy, Jelks is a toolshed that could possibly last to the 5th but I'm doubtful, Ozigbo might get the RB "value" fall so I guess he's not bad at 185, Denis is a day 2 or early day 3 pick for me and Edwards is a damn stud with no chance of lasting til the 7th.

I mean, there's subjectivity in every single mock simulator.  You're essentially comparing their rankings to yours, and then everything is off.  I don't really see anything crazy about your draft in terms of value.  Does Nasir Adderly probably go somewhere in that 20-25 range?  Probably.  Is it inconceivable he goes in that 25-30 range?  No.

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14 hours ago, ChaRisMa said:

Not sure why Daniel Jones is being mentioned in the 1st round. He’s absolutely nothing special.

I'm not sure how much of it I believe.  We heard rumblings last year that we were going to Mason Rudolph or Mike Lauletta in the first round.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I'm not sure how much of it I believe.  We heard rumblings last year that we were going to Mason Rudolph or Mike Lauletta in the first round.

Lol there was rumors Kyle Lauletta would go round 1 last year? Lol I'm sad I missed that

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2 hours ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

What I learned from reading this thread:

1) Never draft a C or G in round 1. Also never draft a WR, ILB, TE, or RB in round 1.

That leaves only QB, T, DL, Edge and DB as options for 1-12.

2) There are no round 1 worthy DBs this year.

3) There is an abundance of DL that will be available in rounds 2-4, so don't draft one in round 1.

4) The Edge prospects who will be available at 1-12 have some warts, mainly they don't fit Pettine's scheme. Best to pass on them than risk a bust. That leaves only T and QB for options at 1-12. 

5) Rodgers will play into his 40's, so not a good time to draft a QB.

That means Dilliard has to be the number 1 pick. But what if he's gone by 1-12? Trade down! And pray we never have this horrible, high draft position again:$

 

Thank you. 

And it sucks that we have a high pick in this class. I'd take Watt at 12 over any but DL maybe. That was maybe TT's dumbest ever move.

The Pack adheres very strictly to positional value in round one.

Yours is exactly my take and I hope they trade down.

I see Dillard or a DL as BVA at 12. I have one unpopular DL but the Pack may have another. Like you say it's loaded there, deepest class ever, moreso than Daniels' class.

They are willing to take a high WR. Both Moss and Dez were very much in play. I could see the right RB at a 30 slot -- don't know if Jacobs is in play, but he fits GB imo-- amazing locker room guy too. But I don't see any WR worth twelve (after going over it and wavering two weeks now) and about ten that are in play for GB rounds 2-5. This is as deep as Adams' class with far  fewer refined players. Scouting will win this draft and I like a move down with more picks.

A loaded but raw DL, TE, WR, edge, S class, and decent OL. One of the deepest classes ever imo but very little at the top, esp for GB's preferences. Deepest DL ever, deepest TE ever, 2014 depth at WR, safety is close to 2017, OL better than the last two years combined.

I'm going through the receivers again......and it's very hard for me to see whom they like. But many reports they are high on Isabella and Harry. Aside from the reports, I already viewed Butler (just added but I'm unsure on him) and Harry and Isabella as top GB picks. Big flags for others as round 1&2  picks-- they have to have production/ improvement/ heart/ heads to get that grade and usually younger with good upside.These three check almost all the boxes but need work -- Butler is a little old and a late comer to football but could end up being the best in class. Man, he is such a beast, biggest wingspan ever and naturally uses it -- raw, Megatron light. I love Renfrow, my only day one starter.

I do want trade downs. 2-4 is loaded and money. He wants more picks, said Gute. If they don't like what's left at 12, they drop, allegedly have a deal set with Pittsburg for 20&52.

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If Oliver isn't there at 12...and it appears likely he won't...Does GB look to move back with the Giants or Dolphins? They can come up and get a QB and GB can still grab an impact player. Pick up a 3rd in the process?

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