2019 Draft Discussion

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, here's the long and short of it.  If there's a guy they like at 12, they will take him.  It's entirely possible that they will like someone better than you or I will because they have a lot more information than we do.  In a couple years things like (for example, not necessarily this comparison) "Jerry Tillery is much better than Christian Wilkins" will be a thing everyone believes not just a hot take (like how "Kenny Clark and Chris Jones are better than Jarran Reid, Robert Nkemdiche, and A'Shawn Robinson" would have been a hot take 3 years ago but is obvious now.)

If there's nobody they particularly like at 12, they can trade back.  It's not productive to focus on the first pick and say "there are no good players!" since they do have to make 9 more picks.

[ChaRisMa]

29 minutes ago, Pilprin said:

If Oliver isn't there at 12...and it appears likely he won't...Does GB look to move back with the Giants or Dolphins? They can come up and get a QB and GB can still grab an impact player. Pick up a 3rd in the process?

95% sure this is the case. Think we’ll have 3 guys we’d be okay taking at 12 or happier than hell to get at 15-16 along with  an additional pick.

[JaireAlex]

39 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, here's the long and short of it.  If there's a guy they like at 12, they will take him.  It's entirely possible that they will like someone better than you or I will because they have a lot more information than we do.  In a couple years things like (for example, not necessarily this comparison) "Jerry Tillery is much better than Christian Wilkins" will be a thing everyone believes not just a hot take (like how "Kenny Clark and Chris Jones are better than Jarran Reid, Robert Nkemdiche, and A'Shawn Robinson" would have been a hot take 3 years ago but is obvious now.)

If there's nobody they particularly like at 12, they can trade back.  It's not productive to focus on the first pick and say "there are no good players!" since they do have to make 9 more picks.

All I know is Chris Jones was my number one for GB when that pick came up (but they had flagged him likely for character/heart for the game) and I had Clark just below  on my GB board.

Each draft I get better at identifying the GB board. I have a check list of ten things they like, most explicitly mentioned at pressers and obvious in the picks too. But they have info I do NOT as you say.

So while I may come off "arrogant", I just follow what the Packers like.

I do think DL, OT, edge are all we look at there. No "real clear" leans there for me. I do have clear "no way in hell is he a Packer AT THAT spot." Tackles like Williams, Taylor, Ford are no way in play at 12 and Ford may be off the board.

Honestly, only Dillard gets a clear GB round one grade. And LaFleur looks for a very similar OL as GB always had. I just don't know how Dillard's RED FLAG grades out: is his bad technique easily fixed? I have no idea. But the kid is a cool cucumber. I love him. Does GB want more fight?

Those are the questions I ask. I have a way longer list on WR, which are easier to predict than ever. And I have a GB board this year for the first time. It will go through round 3, with only about 30 players in tiers.

[Isherwood]

I still would like to know more about what Mike Pettine considers his “ideal” defense. I know some of the concepts within his defense, but last season (definitely out of necessity of what he was given), his defensive philosophy was chameleon-like to me. It’s easy to say Burns isn’t a Pettine pass rusher, but we also know he likes a “beyotch kitty pass rusher” and I wouldn’t call Z Smith or P Smith that. 

I want to know more about what he looks for in his front 7. Would he care to upgrade the ILB, even if the Packers FO generally wouldn’t value that?

[JaireAlex]

5 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

95% sure this is the case. Think we’ll have 3 guys we’d be okay taking at 12 or happier than hell to get at 15-16 along with  an additional pick.

They have a deal to move back with Pittsburg allegedly for 20&52.

I really only see 1 or 2 of "our guys" being there. And I am not sure they are worth it. It's a real short top list for GB this year, as I read it.

Anyways, when 12 comes up this year, it will be the biggest mystery to me what we do. Never felt so uncertain about the play in plan or the players they are looking at as this year.

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, last year I would have sworn up and down that there was no way Jaire Alexander would have been the pick because he doesn't fit the height thresholds.  One of the fun things about the draft is that we learn things about teams in the process, since they can't really hide what they think when they are actually picking (or not picking) certain players or positions. 

[JaireAlex]

1 minute ago, Isherwood said:

I still would like to know more about what Mike Pettine considers his “ideal” defense. I know some of the concepts within his defense, but last season (definitely out of necessity of what he was given), his defensive philosophy was chameleon-like to me. It’s easy to say Burns isn’t a Pettine pass rusher, but we also know he likes a “beyotch kitty pass rusher” and I wouldn’t call Z Smith or P Smith that. 

I want to know more about what he looks for in his front 7. Would he care to upgrade the ILB, even if the Packers FO generally wouldn’t value that?

I do have those same questions.

I only hope they don't go ilb that high since personally I think it's a waste of draft capital. Hope Gute sticks with that. We have so many more important things to address.

[JaireAlex]

3 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, last year I would have sworn up and down that there was no way Jaire Alexander would have been the pick because he doesn't fit the height thresholds.  One of the fun things about the draft is that we learn things about teams in the process, since they can't really hide what they think when they are actually picking (or not picking) certain players or positions. 

Yes. To the bolded

 

See. But Pettine doesn't have that threshold.

...Hahaha....actually that threshold probably exists at all from old nightmares of Randy Moss and Buckley.

[Arthur Penske]

49ers obviously draft before GB and Rams after

[Isherwood]

Just now, JaireAlex said:

I do have those same questions.

I only hope they don't go ilb that high since personally I think it's a waste of draft capital. Hope Gute sticks with that. We have so many more important things to address.

I think so too. I basically only want Edge, DT, or OL at 12. 

[PossibleCabbage]

3 minutes ago, JaireAlex said:

See. But Pettine doesn't have that threshold

Coaches don't pick the players, the GM picks the players and the scouts inform the GM.  Generally at most the input coaches get is "what are you looking for" or "between these three guys, who do you like best" kind of stuff.  If Gutekunst wasn't willing to bend or ignore the CB height threshold, he wouldn't have been the pick no mater how much Pettine wanted him.

Coaches can break ties, and can inform priorities, but they don't set your board (or at least shouldn't).  Most likely what happened is they asked Pettine "Hey what do you need to run the defense" and he says "Cornerbacks!  I need Cornerbacks" then they say "Okay, assuming Ward is gone, watch Alexander, Mike Hughes, Josh Jackson, Isaiah Oliver, and Carlton Davis; rank them; and give your grades/observations."  When he comes back with Alexander as #1 with a bullet they discuss internally whether they would take him at all.

[JaireAlex]

2 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

49ers obviously draft before GB and Rams after

Thanks for that

[Arthur Penske]

2 minutes ago, JaireAlex said:

Thanks for that

Funny part is I don’t have the athletic to read the article. Just a good point more or less. If someone with a subscription wants to share some of it...

[JaireAlex]

1 minute ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Coaches don't pick the players, the GM picks the players and the scouts inform the GM.  Generally at most the input coaches get is "what are you looking for" or "between these three guys, who do you like best" kind of stuff.  If Gutekunst wasn't willing to bend or ignore the CB height threshold, he wouldn't have been the pick no mater how much Pettine wanted him.

At the time, if Pettine says, "I can work with shorter CBs" or prefers them. That will tweak the board.

Where a GM doesn't change is on character marks, production thresholds, heart, etc. Gute is very much working with his coaches though.

I mean how tall was Pettine's number one all time favorite cb? And the Packers were rumored to want to draft him but we're jumped by the Jets.

[JaireAlex]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Funny part is I don’t have the athletic to read the article. Just a good point more or less. If someone with a subscription wants to share some of it...

I can't either.

But I will be looking up who they want.