2019 Draft Discussion

[PossibleCabbage]

6 minutes ago, JaireAlex said:

I mean how tall was Pettine's number one all time favorite cb?

5114; he cleared the Wolf threshold by a full inch.

FWIW I 100% believe the Alexander pick was motivated by: we've already got a young tall CB to cover the tall WRs, so a quick guy to cover the quick guys is more useful to us than another tall guy.  If Kevin King weren't here, he's probably not the pick. 

Edited April 6, 2019 by PossibleCabbage

[Chili]

11 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

49ers obviously draft before GB and Rams after

Shame I can't read the article however I'm not surprised by that at all. Our offence is going to run similar concepts to the 49ers and Rams so it makes sense that we might target similar players, especially on the OL.

Edited April 6, 2019 by Chili

[AlexGreen#20]

5 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

Coaches don't pick the players, the GM picks the players and the scouts inform the GM.  Generally at most the input coaches get is "what are you looking for" or "between these three guys, who do you like best" kind of stuff.  If Gutekunst wasn't willing to bend or ignore the CB height threshold, he wouldn't have been the pick no mater how much Pettine wanted him.

I can't speak absolutely, because every team does it differently, but that's not true of the two teams I've heard about in any kind of detail.

In those two situations (Bengals) the coaches basically were the scouts. The team got the film from whichever scouting firm they used, had a group of interns who basically prepared all the film, wrote down their reports, and submitted them to the position coaches, who would then do their own work on it. They would then compare those reports to the work from an outside scouting firm and the GM would take all those reports and make his own big board.

(Panthers) as soon as the coaches are done with their post season evals, they flip over into looking at prospects. The organization gets it's list from the scouting service, and then on a week by week basis, there were two teams working on it simultaneously. The charting team (like for offensive lineman would calculate their pressure percentage, time to QB, type of protection drop, percentage of the time they successfully combo'd off of a blocker) would do their work and the college scouts would write their own "eye-test" observations. When the college season ended, the college scouts would basically audit each other's work. Then they'd work simultaneously with the caoches, after the coaches were done with post season evals. Head of college scouting would draft up a final report on each guy which would then go to the GM. Then the HC, GM, and Head of College Scouting would make a big board. 

[PossibleCabbage]

Preliminary grades should be done before post-season evals start though.  A scouting service gives you the grades from the previous year in like May, which a team uses to plan which schools they are going to visit and when.  By the time the season is over, all the guys you are looking at should already have a grade from scouts.  What happens thereafter is you want to check the work, which you either do by having everybody in the same room watch a few tapes on a guy all together (this is how Ron Wolf did it) or just assigning people to check each other's work on guys (this is how Ozzie Newsome did it).  Coaches will be involved in the process no earlier than these re-checks.

So if the area scout who has Louisville on his beat doesn't bang the table for Jaire Alexander, we never get to the point where Pettine has input.  Since you were going to send someone to Louisville anyway last year to look at the QB, his left tackle, and that pass rusher if not Jaire.

Edited April 6, 2019 by PossibleCabbage

[ChaRisMa]

31 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, last year I would have sworn up and down that there was no way Jaire Alexander would have been the pick because he doesn't fit the height thresholds.  One of the fun things about the draft is that we learn things about teams in the process, since they can't really hide what they think when they are actually picking (or not picking) certain players or positions. 

Why? We got a new GM. And a new DC. All bets are off.

We don’t have the data to know what Gute does. We had a crap ton based on TTs lengthy history running drafts in Seattle. Gute has his own ideas and influences. We could take a 5’8” guy this year and my reaction wouldn’t be surprise. We need at least 50 picks to start looking for trends.

[MaximusGluteus]

3 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Why? We got a new GM. And a new DC. All bets are off.

We don’t have the data to know what Gute does. We had a crap ton based on TTs lengthy history running drafts in Seattle. Gute has his own ideas and influences. We could take a 5’8” guy this year and my reaction wouldn’t be surprise. We need at least 50 picks to start looking for trends.

You mean there's a possibility he isn't exactly like Thompson and Wolf!?  Blasphemy!

Edited April 6, 2019 by MaximusGluteus

[JaireAlex]

18 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I can't speak absolutely, because every team does it differently, but that's not true of the two teams I've heard about in any kind of detail.

In those two situations (Bengals) the coaches basically were the scouts. The team got the film from whichever scouting firm they used, had a group of interns who basically prepared all the film, wrote down their reports, and submitted them to the position coaches, who would then do their own work on it. They would then compare those reports to the work from an outside scouting firm and the GM would take all those reports and make his own big board.

(Panthers) as soon as the coaches are done with their post season evals, they flip over into looking at prospects. The organization gets it's list from the scouting service, and then on a week by week basis, there were two teams working on it simultaneously. The charting team (like for offensive lineman would calculate their pressure percentage, time to QB, type of protection drop, percentage of the time they successfully combo'd off of a blocker) would do their work and the college scouts would write their own "eye-test" observations. When the college season ended, the college scouts would basically audit each other's work. Then they'd work simultaneously with the caoches, after the coaches were done with post season evals. Head of college scouting would draft up a final report on each guy which would then go to the GM. Then the HC, GM, and Head of College Scouting would make a big board. 

But that's not really GB. It's run by scouts. TT was the scout of scouts.

To Charisma, it will be a lot like TT and Wolf, because esp TT's model has more draft picks now playing in the league, even if the fit was bad or the coaches didn't know how to work them in. Hayward and Hyde were great picks; Randall was a safety prospect. They whiffed a lot on DL but what do you do, picking so low yearly?

The GB FO does work heavily with coaches and I suspect Gute does more than TT. But especially on draft strategy, that's Gute's call. It's closer to what PossibleCabbage described in GB.

Last year's receiver all were TT types except bad hands Moore, who still checked all the rest the boxes, but MVS and EQ fell bizarrely and Gute even said as much. They were like Johnson and Janis molds but way better prospects.

They are at least looking very close at Brown, Harry, Isabella, Thompson, and Hart (?). Those all still check most if not all boxes for typical GB WR picks, regardless of size. They are HIGH production, good to excellent hands, love football (Brown??), etc.

Edited April 6, 2019 by JaireAlex

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, JaireAlex said:

But that's not really GB. It's run by scouts. TT was the scout of scouts.

To Charisma, it will be a lot like TT and Wolf, because esp TT's model has more draft picks now playing in the league, even if the fit was bad or the coaches didn't know how to work them in. Hayward and Hyde were great picks; Randall was a safety prospect. They shiffed a lot on DL mostly but what do you do, picking so low yearly?

The GB FO does work heavily with coaches and I suspect Gute does more than TT. But especially on draft strategy, that's Gute's call. It's closer to what PossibleCabbage described in GB.

Last year's receiver all were TT types except bad hands Moore, who still checked all the rest the boxes, but MVS and EQ fell bizarrely and Gute even said as much. They were like Johnson and Janis molds but way better prospects.

They are at least looking very close at Brown, Harry, Isabella, Thompson, and Hart (?). Those all still check most if not all boxes for typical GB WR picks, regardless of size. They are HIGH production, good to excellent hands, love football (Brown??), etc.

We don't know what role the coaches have in the scouting process, if any. The Packers front office was so damn secretive about all internal processes that all we can do is speculate. I've never heard of any team where the coaching staff had no role in the draft. That's not really how it has ever worked. Coaches have always had some role in the scouting process. 

[PossibleCabbage]

14 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Why? We got a new GM. And a new DC. All bets are off.

Thompson pretty much stuck to the thresholds that Wolf insisted on (with some alterations) so why wouldn't Gute stick to pretty much the same thresholds that Thompson did?  It seems like a pretty fair assumption.  It's just as likely that Alexander was a one time exception for a specific player as it is "new rule."

Coaches generally (unless you're the Bengals) don't get involved in scouting players until after the season, after most of the ground work has been done.  Scouts usually do not want the coaches involved until the basic shape of the board is set since you don't want a coach arguing that this 7th round guy should go in the first because he sees what he likes.  Either the coach wins that argument and you make some bizarre reach, or you have wasted everyone's time.  If you get a number on everybody, even if it changes somewhat in the process, it keeps guys in a certain range.

Edited April 6, 2019 by PossibleCabbage

[fistfullofbeer]

How much of a say does our HC have in the draft process?

[JaireAlex]

56 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

49ers obviously draft before GB and Rams after

HaHaha.

I just looked at the combined four drafts of Shanahan and McVay. Don't think Gute is going to abandon the Wolf/TT strategy and method for that. I really hope not. The way Packers screen for good players is best in the league imo. Draft position sucked. Capers and MM were terrible. I absolutely loved Gute's last draft except the lb (but that's way too early). The other picks fit the character/leadership/performance molds with some (upgrades imo) on measurables.

That won't much change......still it will be interesting to see if it does.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, Norm said:

Lol there was rumors Kyle Lauletta would go round 1 last year? Lol I'm sad I missed that

Yes.  Wasn't a very good rumor, but it was a rumor nonetheless.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, Pilprin said:

If Oliver isn't there at 12...and it appears likely he won't...Does GB look to move back with the Giants or Dolphins? They can come up and get a QB and GB can still grab an impact player. Pick up a 3rd in the process?

I think it depends on whose on the board, and what teams are willing to give up.  If the Giants are really only offering a 4th round pick, do the Packers really feel motivated to move from 12 to 17?  Probably not.

[JaireAlex]

53 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

5114; he cleared the Wolf threshold by a full inch.

FWIW I 100% believe the Alexander pick was motivated by: we've already got a young tall CB to cover the tall WRs, so a quick guy to cover the quick guys is more useful to us than another tall guy.  If Kevin King weren't here, he's probably not the pick. 

Indeed.

Also motivated by Jaire was just a damn good prospect and there was no better cb/dl/edge there. Only guy at that position value/fit/level was Derwin James between 14-18. It would be interesting to know who was higher. But worth an extra one in a better draft class no doubt. Pretty comparable picks, unlike this year which just lacks that high end.

[PossibleCabbage]

21 minutes ago, fistfullofbeer said:

How much of a say does our HC have in the draft process?

Generally speaking you want the coach to have input, but not actual decision-making power.  "What positions do you need", "What traits are most/least important", and "watch these guys and tell us what you think" are things the coach can and should offer input on.  But a football coach's job is not "evaluate players" so he doesn't make grades or final decisions.

Coaches, of course, always want more input on this than they get but since this is Coach Flower's first time head coaching at any level, it seems likely he will defer to the scouts after informing them of his priorities.  Remember that the scouting department had preliminary grades on almost everyone before LaFleur was even hired.

Edited April 6, 2019 by PossibleCabbage