GDT Week 3: DEN @ BAL

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, jolly red giant said:

One thing that does worry me was the body language and demeanour of Von Miller in the post-game presser - he looked like a player who was utterly disillusioned by what was going on around him.

He should be upset.   We got our butts whipped, and it wasn't bad breaks/etc.   We lost in the trenches on both sides of the ball.   And our QB doesn't look like the answer long-term, or even close.   For a D leader (and core leader), that's got to sting.  There are a lot of things I worry about this team, but Von's not one of them.  

[Broncofan]

20 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Nothing about this game suprised me. The 2-0 start is what suprised me. This offseason telegraphed exactly what our issues were in this game, and its a few things I was saying all along.

1) Case Keenum isnt a starting talent. He is a backup who had a fluke year. As a starter, he is one of the 5 worst QB in the league.

2) Vance Joseph isnt a competent HC. He is one of the 5 worst HC in the league (And that may be generous).

3) Trading Talib for a R5 pick (Then subsequently using the money saved to sign the above mentioned backup QB to 22M) was a horrendous move that will deeply cost this team in 2018.

4) While one game doesnt define his improvements, I still prefer Bolles as a RT moving forward. Look, I understand he was going against a HOF pass rusher, but as a R1 pick you should come out slightly negative in that situation not look like a turnstile.

5) I have not been that harsh on Woods, but he looks to be incompetent too. IDK if Vance is influencing the schemes but for a guy that was supossedly Phillips understudy, he sure doesnt call a game like Wade.

Overall, despite the 2-0 start, its going to be a 'nothing to see here' type season. We are a middling team who will end up 6-10 to 8-8. A treadmill team without a competent HC and stuck paying a bad QB a ton of money in a desperate attempt to get booted in the Wildcard.

On the plus side, the 2017 2018 draft class looks tremendous. It just wont matter until we have a QB and HC.

FIFY, I know it was a typo, but the words 2017 draft class and tremendous should never occupy the same line lol.

Re: Talib, it was time to part ways, and move forward to rebuild the team - there were literally no other cap casualties who didn't have a ton of dead money.  As much as I salute Talib the player, it was the only way we could move forward.  Now, spending it on Keenum when we had cheaper stopgap QB's and a draft to invest in, yeah, hated that.   Bad, bad, bad move there.  No doubt.  But we had no way forward without cutting Talib (remember, Wolfe/Marshall/DT-Sanders were all speculated on for 2019 given their big cap #'s and Q's going forward - but they had too much 2018 dead money to make that viable this year).  

As it is, even with Talib and CJ getting cut - Elway still had to restructure Von.  Now, again, we could have gone cheap FA and skipped on Davis/Brock/McDonald to avoid the Von restructure, and if we didn't spend on Keenum but drafted QB and went McCown/Bridgewater as a cheaper stopgap (5-10M), maybe we could have afforded to keep Talib.  But we'd have needed to do all of that to keep Talib.   For a team that wasn't going anywhere with or without him.    So I do get the Talib release, the cap realities forced Elway into that with no other obvious way out, especially once he spent all the $ on Keenum (yes, go after him hard for that one, I'm right there with you).   But then we'd be even more talent-poor this year, with obvious holes going in - which wouldn't have bothered me at all if we were committing entirely for the future - but as we all know, that's not Elway's MO.   And we can't really ding him for it, it's pretty much the MO of all but a few teams. 

If you recall, I hated the Davis re-signing because we didn't have the cap space to commit even 5M a year to just a run-stuffer.  That's how bad our long-term cap situation was (and still is).  The CW reply back then was that we had no one at ILB - which I get, but it reflects more on the poor long-term planning there, to not have drafted even a Day 3 guy in 2017, for what was an obvious roster gap.   2017 was just so bad for us draft-wise, and built on 2-3 prior years of whiffs Day 1-2, the butcher's bill for our cap spending relative-to value has just come home to roost, and it's created big cascade effects (spend $$ on Watson and then Veldheer because we can't develop T, spend $5 AAV on runstuffer ILB because we didn't even draft ILB's, spend 3M on Brock because CB's haven't progressed, 3M more on McDonald because the DL pass rush / legal issues made our DL look poor...it all adds up).  

Like you said, though, at least the 2018 class looks to have early impact guys.  That's the one saving grace to the offseason and early season so far.  Truthfully, that's our real hope to build on.  

[jsthomp2007]

18 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Keenum had the chance to prove us wrong - even if we didn't win, marching down and getting a TD there would have created confidence.

He blew it - the guy was supposed to be good at protecting the ball - but not so far this season.

And it is always in the red zone, which has to be a killer....to generate a good, solid, drive to end in a turnover has to be soul depleting for the rest of the offense...and, the defense has to go back on the field with no points accounted for...at least a field goal keeps you in the game...I  know FGs suck, but it is better than an interceptions.  I mean, if that is what is going to happen why not put Kelly in there, because you'd expect that from him.  Also, Kelly has the arm to fit ball into holes that Keenum just can't do...further, Kelly is mobile, he can take it to the house if there is nothing there to throw too...

 

We can feel the Bronco implosion coming...might as well do it with a first year guy...they are doing it with Yiadom, which I have no problem with...let the corner get torched and learn from it. 

[BroncosFan2010]

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Now, again, we could have gone cheap FA and skipped on Davis/Brock/McDonald to avoid the Von restructure, and if we didn't spend on Keenum but drafted QB and went McCown/Bridgewater as a cheaper stopgap (5-10M), maybe we could have afforded to keep Talib.  But we'd have needed to do all of that to keep Talib. 

I think that would have been the correct move. Talib is an elite talent, and a passionate locker room presence who brought a great enegry to the defense. Lets say we have the below two options:

1) Sign Davis / Brock / McDonald / Keenum as FA  ; Trade Talib for cap space

2) Dont sign the above guys or resign Davis ; Sign Bridgewater or McCown ; Keep Talib ; Sign vet-min level guys in place of Davis (Its ILB, just throw Josey into the fire and see if he can sink/swin, if sink sign a vet off the street) / Brock (Who wouldnt be a need anyways if Talib is kept) / McDonald (Who isnt even on the team)

Its just so clear that option 2 is the correct choice. The talent comparison of say, Bridgewater/Talib vs Keenum/Brock leans pretty clearly to the former.

I will never understand the Case signing. Elway may have been scared of Teddy's injury, but a late career one-year-wonder like Case is just as risky an investment as a guy coming off a terrible injury IMO. Or just get McCown in here.

We are stuck paying a backup QB tens of millions for two seasons. His contract will burden the team next summer to the point that we may have to let quality players walk, or even cut them, to accomodate. Paying him that amount is going to be one of Elway's top 3 blunders. It was a worse decision than drafting Lynch, who the whole NFL was quite high on coming out of Memphis and presented a guy with a pretty high ceiling.

I have parroted it so many times but old QB's that suddenly have a single good season are the definition of 'buyer beware'. Then add in that this single good season came on arguably the most talented team in the league, with an elite defense and great offensive weapons, and its 'buyer run away'. Just so foolish.

[germ-x]

While this QB class isn’t top heavy like last years, I love the depth it brings.  Lot of good prospects in that mid 1st-3rd round range.

Obviously it’s a long way away, but just a gut feeling Denver is going to love Jarrett Stidham when the draft roles around.  He just seems like a Gary Kubiak QB to me.  With Kubiak still in the building I could see him pounding the table for a guy like Stidham, whose a prototypical WCO QB.

[BroncosFan2010]

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While this QB class isn’t top heavy like last years, I love the depth it brings.  Lot of good prospects in that mid 1st-3rd round range.

Obviously it’s a long way away, but just a gut feeling Denver is going to love Jarrett Stidham when the draft roles around.  He just seems like a Gary Kubiak QB to me.  With Kubiak still in the building I could see him pounding the table for a guy like Stidham, whose a prototypical WCO QB.

This is why, once out of playoff contention (Which will happen), we need to see some Kelly. Give him some make-or-break games. Because drafting another QB high only to have him outplayed by a R7 pick in TC and end up on the bench just cant happen again. Kelly needs to get a chance this year so we can enter the 2019 draft with better understanding on whether QB is a R1 need, or a middle round need.

I would start him next game but then again, the optics and media dont weigh on me.

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, germ-x said:

While this QB class isn’t top heavy like last years, I love the depth it brings.  Lot of good prospects in that mid 1st-3rd round range.

Obviously it’s a long way away, but just a gut feeling Denver is going to love Jarrett Stidham when the draft roles around.  He just seems like a Gary Kubiak QB to me.  With Kubiak still in the building I could see him pounding the table for a guy like Stidham, whose a prototypical WCO QB.

The depth is good - but the top end talent isn’t.  That’s the fear - reaching for a pick Rd1 that has no business being there.  If Kelly isn’t the long term guy I don’t mind a Day 2 pick even though the success rate is so low.   The value is way better.    Problem being need forcing picks way earlier than it should. 

[MakeDenverGreatAgain]

That was a thoroughly disappointing performance, but it's exactly what this team is-mediocre, at best.

The game couldn't have started any better with the blocked punt, one play and touchdown. We all knew that our offense wasn't going to set the world on fire, but I think people underestimated how much this defense is going to struggle throughout the year, as Baltimore cut through them like a hot knife through butter to tie the game and dominate the second and third quarters. I honestly thought after the opening touchdown Denver had a good chance to win and win convincingly, but our secondary is BAD (including CHJ at times), and our front 7 is poor. Wolfe has never been an elite player, and Peko seems to be the only person playing with passion. We also couldn't get pressure on a statue, aside from one or two cleanup sacks.  

I've been saying it all along, but Keenum is closer to the QB that got benched in LA than the QB that performed well last season in Minnesota. He just doesn't have the physical tools to be an elite player at his position, and that was exposed yesterday. You can't put the game in his hands and expect to win. It's that simple. If this team gets down by double digits, it's over. I thought Musgrave did a poor job yesterday of calling plays to ease the burden on Case and allow him simple, short throws to give WRs an opportunity for YAC. His turnovers and sacks come from Musgrave asking him to do too much with football, and Keenums own timidness to make a mistake, which he did anyways.

Garrett Bolles is just not a good player, plain and simple, and will be nothing more than an average player in this league. I know T Suggs is one of the best to ever do it, but at 36 years old if you can't handle him one-on-one, especially when you're praised for your mean streak and agility, you're not ready to be an above-average player in this league. To top it off, he'd tackle him and look up like "what'd I do?" 

I may catch heat for this but to me Bradley Chubb was a wasted pick at #5. He's a rich-mans Robert Ayers. He's a good player at the point-of-attack, but he'll never be an elite pass rusher, and is being forced to play out of position in our 3-4. The big problem with not drafting a QB when you have two (and possibly three if you wanted to move up for Darnold), that are elite prospects at #5 is that Keenum is good enough to let you wallow in mediocrity (7-9, 8-8) to the point where you won't have the opportunity to draft an elite QB prospect without mortgaging the farm. You're not going to win championships, but you're not bad enough to have high draft capital to rebuild your team like you did after last year. That's a huge problem, and the reason that Elway is going to be unemployed in 2020. The lack of forethought to see the make-up of this roster and realize that you aren't talented enough to compete in the next 2-3 years is reason enough to draft the QBOTF. We didn't, and we'll pay the price of being a meddling team for the next 3-5 seasons barring an unforeseen signing a la Manning, or lightning in a bottle (mid-round QBOTF).

With all that said, the main change that needs to be made is parting ways with Vance ASAP, and I mean yesterday. The man doesn't have the makeup of an NFL head coach. You can see it in the play on the field and the players on the sideline. A real coach would've let Joe Woods walk and taken ownership of his staff and VJ doesn't do that. I know Elway's ego won't let him admit he made a mistake, hence why VJ is still here, but if he wants to keep his job change is needed and needed now. 

[lomaxgrUK]

I am not ready to call Chubb a wasted pick, but I get your point. A top 5 pick should, in reality, be a focal point of the opposition and Chubb certainly isn't going to be that any time soon. Annoyingly, it appears the Chargers have managed to snag themselves the pure definition of an impact player in Derwin James. He looks incredible.

I wouldn't say Chubb is out of position really. We play so much Cover 1 that if we're in our base 4 Defense, we're rushing 5 a lot of the time anyway because we're playing man coverage outside (as you do in Cover 1 99.9% of the time). Sure, both him and Von have responsibilities in the flat occasionally, but 4-3 DE's have contain responsibilities so it isn't like they just pin their ears back and go.

I didn't see any of Chubb in College, but I remember when Stink said if Chubb had and Garrett had been in the same draft, the former would've gone #1 overall. Well, Stink would likely be fired by now if he was the GM to do that 

[BroncosFan2010]

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I am not ready to call Chubb a wasted pick, but I get your point. A top 5 pick should, in reality, be a focal point of the opposition and Chubb certainly isn't going to be that any time soon. Annoyingly, it appears the Chargers have managed to snag themselves the pure definition of an impact player in Derwin James. He looks incredible.

Amen. You dont take on high motor, edge setters who get effort/motor sacks at 1.05. You take guys that have those aformentioned traits but can also explode around an OT and bend their hips. Chubb doesnt do those things.

It is so disheartening that this teams future probably depends on a R7 pick, Chad Kelly, because as is the team is going nowhere with Case, but wont be nearly bad enough to have a high end R1 to snag a QB. So either Chad is a monumental steal, we ride it out with Case like talents until the Super Bowl players retire/walk and enjoy pergatory or we deal 2-3 high draft picks to roll the dice on a QBOTF (And consitering we are likely picking in the middle of R1, the price to get up top will be monumental). Its a horrible situation to be in, and we could have avoided it all last draft by using 1.05 on a QB.

Even if Chad is the real deal, or we find a competent QB some other way (Herbert is QB1 by miles IMO), we still face Case as a 10M dead cap hit next summer. Thats huge for a team struggling w/ money. Ugh.

[1234567]

35 minutes ago, MakeDenverGreatAgain said:

The big problem with not drafting a QB when you have two (and possibly three if you wanted to move up for Darnold), that are elite prospects at #5 is that Keenum is good enough to let you wallow in mediocrity (7-9, 8-8) to the point where you won't have the opportunity to draft an elite QB prospect without mortgaging the farm. You're not going to win championships, but you're not bad enough to have high draft capital to rebuild your team like you did after last year.

Yup, and it was a concern of mine going into this season. That plan only works if you have an all-time type defense which we clearly don't have anymore and Elway should have recognized that. I will say in fairness though, I've never really viewed Rosen or Darnold as home-run, can't miss type players. I know a LOT of people disagree there, but I just never could quite get on that hype train. I could see them both having pretty Tannehill-esque type careers; definitely above average, but certainly not in the same catagory as PFM, Brady or Brees. And obviously it's just my opinion.. but outside of maybe Mayfield I'm not completely sure I would have pulled the trigger on any of those guys with #5. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Amen. You dont take on high motor, edge setters who get effort/motor sacks at 1.05. You take guys that have those aformentioned traits but can also explode around an OT and bend their hips. Chubb doesnt do those things.

It is so disheartening that this teams future probably depends on a R7 pick, Chad Kelly, because as is the team is going nowhere with Case, but wont be nearly bad enough to have a high end R1 to snag a QB. So either Chad is a monumental steal, we ride it out with Case like talents until the Super Bowl players retire/walk and enjoy pergatory or we deal 2-3 high draft picks to roll the dice on a QBOTF (And consitering we are likely picking in the middle of R1, the price to get up top will be monumental). Its a horrible situation to be in, and we could have avoided it all last draft by using 1.05 on a QB.

Even if Chad is the real deal, or we find a competent QB some other way (Herbert is QB1 by miles IMO), we still face Case as a 10M dead cap hit next summer. Thats huge for a team struggling w/ money. Ugh.

Yeah, that was the argument for drafting QB at 1.5 even with Keenum at 36M/2 - Keenum holds the fort, and then rookie takes over later this year/next year.    The one possible out we have is a trade saves 7M of that 10M next year.  But in order to trade him, he has to look way better than Weeks 1-3.  Our greatest hope is that he can look OK (let's face it, 7-8  years of history says that what we should hope for) until Kelly / whoever takes over.  And then we can deal him for peanuts pick-wise...and save 7M in cap relief.  

I get what you are saying about playing Kelly now, I share your belief we aren't even close to a contender, and the 2-1 record is purely a schedule mirage because of who we played.  But that's not happening this soon.  If anything, playing Keenum is not only in the belief that we still have a shot to make playoffs (we don't, but Elway won't think that way, and really, about 27-28 other GM's would in same boat), but also because he's got to play better to establish any type of 2019 trade value (even as a pure salary dump).

So, we're stuck with the Keenum cannon for a while.   Again, as bad as week 3 was, week 1-2  was still better than 2016-17.  Which is an awfully low bar to pass, I know lol.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think that would have been the correct move. Talib is an elite talent, and a passionate locker room presence who brought a great enegry to the defense. Lets say we have the below two options:

1) Sign Davis / Brock / McDonald / Keenum as FA  ; Trade Talib for cap space

2) Dont sign the above guys or resign Davis ; Sign Bridgewater or McCown ; Keep Talib ; Sign vet-min level guys in place of Davis (Its ILB, just throw Josey into the fire and see if he can sink/swin, if sink sign a vet off the street) / Brock (Who wouldnt be a need anyways if Talib is kept) / McDonald (Who isnt even on the team)

Its just so clear that option 2 is the correct choice. The talent comparison of say, Bridgewater/Talib vs Keenum/Brock leans pretty clearly to the former.

I will never understand the Case signing. Elway may have been scared of Teddy's injury, but a late career one-year-wonder like Case is just as risky an investment as a guy coming off a terrible injury IMO. Or just get McCown in here.

We are stuck paying a backup QB tens of millions for two seasons. His contract will burden the team next summer to the point that we may have to let quality players walk, or even cut them, to accomodate. Paying him that amount is going to be one of Elway's top 3 blunders. It was a worse decision than drafting Lynch, who the whole NFL was quite high on coming out of Memphis and presented a guy with a pretty high ceiling.

I have parroted it so many times but old QB's that suddenly have a single good season are the definition of 'buyer beware'. Then add in that this single good season came on arguably the most talented team in the league, with an elite defense and great offensive weapons, and its 'buyer run away'. Just so foolish.

Well, that was my take to literally just call 2018 rebuilding from the get go and not invest heavily into win-now guys - but we know Elway just can't do that.  To be fair re: Davis, while I hated it, we didn't know if we'd get Jewell or a top ILB earlier.   So I hate it, but I get why it happened - again, that's more on really bad roster planning for 2018 when the 2017 draft happened (novel concept that drafts really help for the next year, not present year, I know).   I personally would have been fine with going into the draft without Davis and target Jewell (and take him 3.99 if they needed to without a starting ILB, instead of 4.106, Jewell's stock clearly had him as an early 100's guy).   But I get that GM's' don't like walking into Draft Day with bases completely uncovered.   On pretty much everything else, I'd have gone cheap too.  But what's done is done.  

Re: QB, I'm right there with you.  Remember that there were calls to trade for Nick Foles this offseason, before Keenum was signed.  It's unbelievable how journeymen QB's get hot for several games, or even in the most extreme, a season surrounded by an elite team...and people fall for the belief they're suddenly different.  I say the above looking squarely at Ryan Fitzpatrick - where the same belief is being promoted.  It's just a matter of when the bubble bursts when you have guys who are vets and established their level of play beyond their first 3+ years of learning.    And a matter of who's left holding the bag when the bubble bursts.   It just so happens it's us for 2018.   Hopefully it's not us in 2019, but for that to happen, well, we'll need Keenum to be at least OK for the RoS until the point when Kelly gets his audition.  And, not a good feeling at all.

[AnAngryAmerican]

The business problems this franchise has are affecting what the team can do on the field. Let me explain. 

The franchise needs an influx of cash that can only come about by finding a name-rights partner for the stadium. That is hard for a couple of reasons, a corporation is only going to shell out big bucks if the team is successful on the field because that brings about more prime-time and nationally televised games. When we're the fourth regional on CBS, the only people watching are our fans and fans of the team we're playing (limited exposure) and our fans all refer to the stadium as "Mile High" anyway. The last decade-plus the NFL has begun to be marketed the way the NBA is, around star players (or, better said, star QBs). The only team that moves the needle ratings wise as a team is Dallas; they could 3-13 and would still get the max number of prime time games allowed by the league and Fox's "America's Game of the Week," for at least half the weeks they're not in prime time.  

It was judged that the best way to get the team to a somewhat competitive level, i.e. be a 9-7 or better team that has playoff hopes through Christmas, maybe sneaks into a Wild Card game and from there who knows what can happen. With the core of in-their-prime veterans - Von, Harris, Wolfe, DT, Sanders - you sign someone like Keenum and hope he replicates what he did last year on (what our FO viewed) as a similar roster. Much as maybe Elway wanted to take one of the QBs at the top fo the draft this year, and given the time we spent scouting all of them it was not a smokescreen, he had to get an instant-impact player who helps the team win now, not one who sits on the bench and learns for a year or two. We need to be competitive in the division and in the AFC now so the team can get the influx of funds it needs. 

Unfortunately this has become a hubris for the team because if there was a time to do a tear-down and rebuild with a new coach and a rookie QB last year was a golden opportunity given that we had a high draft pick and there four or five first-round worthy QB prospects. But we couldn't afford to fire Vance and his staff and pay a new staff. 

This era of the team reminds of the early-2000s. We still have a lot of talented vets in or just past their primes but since HOF QB retired we're trying to band-aid the position, only difference is that instead of Brian Griese and Jake Plummer it's been Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum. Yet it's even harder to win now without an elite QB than it was then given how pass-centric the league has become.

After this year Elway is going to need to go to Joe Ellis and explain that the team is going to need a full tear down and rebuild with a new coach and a young roster that is going to take it's lumps; one step back to take two steps forward. Continuing on the same path we are is going to do exactly what I said it would when we signed Keenum - better than a laughing stock but, at best, a fringe wild card contender, exactly what we were from 1999-2008 (2005 being the exception). 

[BroncosFan2010]

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only difference is that instead of Brian Griese and Jake Plummer it's been Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum.

Jake Plummer would be a godsend right now. He was far more talented than Case. More mobile, better arm, not a one-year-wonder. We wouldnt catch LAC or KC with him, but may slide into a WC spot.

I have so much jealously for KC right now. They have a 23 year old franchise QB, mobile, gunslinging and confident with a quality personality. Players dont play like has has these past three games and just come back to earth. If this is a fluke, the gods certainly do hate KC. He will be the guy we look at in our conference and say 'wow, imagine if we had him' for the next 10+ years. I guess it was time for KC to get something exciting at QB, we have had Elway and PFM while they have struggled finding consistency there, but man I am jealous.

O well, at least we have Case to play the role of the-little-arm-that-could and hold the ball too long then try to make gamechanging throws that inevitabley dont work because noodle.