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Around the NFL II - Even NFLier

y2lamanaki

By y2lamanaki
in San Francisco 49ers

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John232

John232

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I'm not advocating for picking Barkley, or elite RB prospects period in the top 10 or even top 15( I'm in love with McGlinchey now). But Barkley is about as good as one can get for a none edge and non qb player in the draft. And there were members on this forum, one in particular who didn't think Barkley was at all special. Barkley is far better then good. The guy is a one man show. 

 

If he was on the Saints or our team, he'd be putting up even crazier numbers. 

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N4L

N4L

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13 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Doesn't the fact that our oft-injured undrafted starter entered the week with more yards on over 20 fewer carries really drive home the point that a first round running back is a tremendous waste for this team?

I'm sorry but this is wildly misleading. You aren't taking into account saquons receiving ability. He has over 800 total yards on 124 touches after last night's game. That is 6.5 ypt. He has 40 catches for 373 yards... 

Breida has 459 yards on 60 touches which is 7.6 ypt. Breida has 49 carries for 369 yards.

Even if you take away all of saquons rushing attempts and throw away breidas 11 catches for 90 yards, he essentially marched breidas production. 

So cherry picking out saquons most productive game as a pro (albeit some of those gathered in garbage time) then trying to compare rushing yards while completely ignoring the fact that saquon is one of the top 5 receiving backs in the NFL (bell, kamara, Johnson, gurley) seems intentionally misleading.

I understand the argument that resources are better allocated towards positions with longer shelf lives, and where the difference between a top 5 pick and an undrafted FA is greater than at running back. With that being said there is simply no denying the incredible, elite physical traits that are coupled with incredible vision, footwork and natural running ability that make saquon a one of a kind player who is truly worthy of his draft position. 

Was Adrian Peterson worth his draft position? Saquon looks to be a more complete version of what Peterson was. 

I'm not advocating drafting a runner in the first round.. but I am advocating for spending draft capital on a multi-faceted runner. Kamara, Kareem hunt, you can find pro-bowl caliber players in the middle rounds. We need to address the position in the off-season. Relying on McKinnon to come back will not be enough. 

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y2lamanaki

y2lamanaki

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9 hours ago, N4L said:

So cherry picking out saquons most productive game as a pro

LOL, it's cherry picking to compare two players entering the week when they played an even number of games, but rather now fairer to compare them after one played a 6th game and the other has yet to play?

This says all I need to about your post.

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N4L

N4L

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14 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

LOL, it's cherry picking to compare two players entering the week when they played an even number of games, but rather now fairer to compare them after one played a 6th game and the other has yet to play?

This says all I need to about your post.

No, it's not cherry picking, it's evaluating all of the data available. Cherry picking would be removing data to better make the information support an opinion, which is what you did. (Twice I might add, by not accounting for his receiving yards) 

 

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y2lamanaki

y2lamanaki

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21 hours ago, N4L said:

...it's evaluating all of the data available...

Ahh, gotcha...I missed that part, and reread your original post. I have to say, it was well thought-out and argued. I love that you included ALL of the available data.  I can totally respect that. For instance, I'm thrilled you led off your post with this: 

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Of course, it's only fair to start by pointing out that our #1 RB went down with an injury and hasn't played a snap for the team, so we'll be comparing a #1 RB vs. a #2 RB. 

Excellent point. That is only fair to point out, considering it is part of the data. I'm glad you included that in ALL of the data. I'm also then thrilled that in further comparing the two, you included this: 

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Now let's talk about their snap counts. When evaluating bulk yardage, it's fair to point out that the two players aren't necessarily playing evenly. Saquon Barkley has been on the field for 309 of his team's snaps, or 80.47% of the total. Matt Breida has racked up all of his yardage despite only being on the field for 135 snaps, or 37.92% of his team's total snaps.

That was an excellent point you made. Since you were evaluating ALL of the data, it was pretty fair to note that it would definitely be more logical to find Saquon Barkley in the lead for total yardage given that he's used a whole lot more than Breida...I mean...Breida has 174 less snaps and is still doing so well! Can you find a way to improve that any?

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Now, I recognize that it's not really fair to compare 6 games of bulk stats vs. 5 games of bulk stats (and really, considering Breida's injuries, less than even 5 games), but I don't think you can compare the two through the first five weeks where they have played an equal amount of games because that's cherry picking data for some reasons I have not been able to fully explain. So rather than doing that, I'm going to just use Breida's last 6 games vs. Barkley's first 6 games. That will at least be a more even representation: 

BREIDA:

61 rushes, 441 yards, 7.2 YPC, 1 TD | 12 receptions, 122 yards, 10.2 YPR, 1 TD

BARKLEY:

84 rushes, 438 yards, 5.2 YPC, 4 TD | 30 receptions, 373 yards, 9.3 YPR, 2 TD

As you can see, when comparing the amount of games in which they've played evenly (which I agree with you - it is the fairest way to compare two players rather than illogically pointing out mid-week in-between games played  that one player has more yards which would absolutely be what you would expect), Breida actually has more rushing yards than Barkley despite over 20 fewer carries (Huh - your original post you made still holds up!). Of course, Barkley does have more receiving yards because he's obviously being used a lot more in the Giants offense as a whole. Breida's yards/per stats are definitely superior. Barkley does easily have the edge on touchdowns, though. Y2, I know you've been noting for quite a while that a redzone threat was really what you saw as the bigger need for this team, so I guess that still holds true.

Hmm...that does seem to make sense to include a 6th game for Breida when analyzing ALL of the data...I mean, comparing them unevenly did seem foolish, so I'm glad you found another way to compare them more evenly since Breida's team has yet to play this week. And yes I have noted repeatedly that the team needs someone who can score TDs. It seems like if we could just find that as a part of the committee, this team would be in great shape. But I'm really glad you noted just how large a usage difference they had and found found a way to analyze that data: 

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Since Breida is obviously in a running back committee, whereas Saquon Barkley, is the #1 back and the rest of the Giants backs have totaled 20 carries in 6 games (just over 3 a game), it might be fair to compare bulk yardage with BOTH of the 49ers running backs. Barkley has 438 yards on the ground and 373 through the air. That's a total of 811 yards in 6 games. Morris and Breida have combined for 597 rushing yards and 156 receiving yards. That's a total of 753 yards for the committee. That's not far off, and they've played 28 fewer snaps than Barkley has...which makes total sense, given that Barkley has played 6 games and they've played only 5. Chances are pretty decent that the extra 58 yards of total offense that Barkley provided his team in 6 games might be made up by the committee members of this team on Monday night. Or - we can just go back to my last analysis of Breida's last 6 games, include his total yardage from that 6th game (while ignoring Alfred Morris's stats since he wasn't here for that game, and ignoring Carlos Hyde's stats because he's no longer here), and then the committee of Breida and Morris - counting only their time with the 49ers - actually outgain Barkley when comparing them over 6 games. Who knew? I mean, you probably recognized that the 49ers have the 3rd-ranked running attack in the league, but I'm not sure I did!

A lot of excellent points in there. Since you evaluated ALL of the data, it was fair for you to show that the first round pick's production through 6 games was almost entirely made up in 5 games by an undrafted free agent and a bargain bin August free agent pick-up on a veteran salary despite playing fewer combined snaps. Is the extra 58 yards of offense worth spending the #2 overall pick on rather than picking up two bargain bin deals instead? When adding in Breida's 6th game - as you did in analyzing ALL of the data - I don't think so. Let's see your thoughts:

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Was Adrian Peterson worth his draft position? Let's take a look at all of the playoff games Minnesota won while Peterson was there: 

January 17th, 2010 vs. the Dallas Cowboys

Hmm...interesting. I guess he didn't really help them win a whole lot. Thanks for pointing that out for us while analyzing ALL of the data. 

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In fact, the only teams this century who have won a Super Bowl with a RB they drafted in the first round were the Ravens in 2000, the Colts in 2006, the Steelers in 2008, and the Saints in 2009. Of those four teams, only Jamal Lewis with the Ravens 18 years ago were a meaningful reason the team won, but that team was obviously built on defense. Joseph Addai only topped 100 total yards in the Wild Card round of the Colts' run. Rashard Mendenhall had fewer than 100 yards and didn't play in the playoffs for the Steelers. And if you combine all of Reggie Bush's all-purpose yards (includes return yardage) from the NFC Championship and Super Bowl during the Saints run, you barely get over 100. I mean, looking at the top 10 backs on the careering running list, Barry Sanders, Frank Gore, Curtis Martin, LaDainian Tomlinson, Eric Dickerson, and Adrian Peterson are ALL without Super Bowl rings (I know we both recognize Gore and Martin were not 1st round picks, this is more a point about great RBs in general). It doesn't appear that a first round running back is at all necessary in building a solid team from a historical perspective.

No it does not, does it? Fascinating research. Thanks for sharing your analysis of ALL of the data on first round running backs.

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Then it's also important to look at the Giants and Eli Manning. Most agree he's done. He's 37, and most thought the Giants should probably select his replacement while having the 2nd overall pick, given that there were 3 legitimate options for them on the table when they picked. One of those QBs could have spent the season learning behind Eli. Sure, they wouldn't have Barkley, but they're putting all of that unnecessary wear on his tires given that they obviously aren't going anywhere. That could likely limit his effectiveness in future years. And sure - the Giants are going to have a high pick and can get a QB this year - but they're also one of the few teams worse at sacking the quarterback than we are...and that's with them playing an extra game. Instead of having both a franchise QB and a franchise sack artist, now they only have a franchise RB...and those historically aren't needed. 

That's part of what we need to do when evaluating draft picks made...evaluating the draft picks on which they passed. Look at us - we took Mike McGlinchey to help out our run game, and he's a large part of the reason that our committee of bargain bin players are doing so well. Not even factoring in a trade up, had Barkley fallen to us and we selected him, he'd be behind a much worse offensive line. We'd probably be downgrading.

More excellent points in your analysis of ALL the data of the draft.

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This isn't even taking into account contracts. Barkley already costs his team over 31 million over the next four years. McKinnon, Breida, and Morris combined only costs that much, and that's including a terrible contract for a RB. And assuming he plays well, when Barkley needs to be re-signed, he's going to cost a heck of a lot more than he currently does. Probably more than the $57 million Gurley just got. Or...they could let him walk and only get four years out of the #2 overall draft pick.

Excellent points when analyzing ALL of the data on contracts and running backs.

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But back to comparing just Barkley and Breida, let's take a look at some advanced metrics to analyze what those bulk stats mean. I think you are probably a fan of advanced metrics, right? 

I am. I really am. Thanks for including this in your analysis of ALL of the available data. After all, it's widely available for free right here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb so I see no reason why you would leave it out in an analysis of ALL of the available data. (I noticed you missed the link in your post - I've got ya covered!)

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Let's start with DVOA. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted value over average. It's an efficiency statistic that actually takes into account the defenses that a player is facing. This is useful, because a player facing top defenses would reasonably be expected to perform worse than someone who faced only poor defenses. Barkley actually ranks pretty well - he's ranked 7th. Breida, however, is ranked 3rd. And if you don't adjust for defense, and just consider VOA - value over average - Barkley drops down to 26th. Breida is #1. 

Now, VOA and DVOA tends to favor backs with lower usage rates, and as we noted - Barkley is used considerably more than Breida. Luckily, there's a stat that serves to fix this. It's called DYAR - Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This factors in the importance of a player and what removing him from the offense would do to the team as a whole. Barkley still does really well at this - he's ranked 8th. Undrafted Breida is still ranked higher at 4th, however. And taking out the adjustment for defenses faced (if that's what you prefer), Breida ranks 2nd whereas Barkley falls to 26th again.

Maybe you prefer straight success rate - the measure of an average player in the same situation with the same play on the same team. Breida doesn't do so well in this metric. He ranks 13th in the league. Barkley, though - 31st. 

Wow...thanks for sharing some advanced metrics in your analysis of ALL of the available data. It's crazy how undrafted Breida seems to lead in so many of these categories. 

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In short, @N4L, I really want to thank you for taking the time to so thoroughly analyze ALL of the available data. When I wrote my original tweet-sized musing, I had no intention of putting much effort into the discussion because it was obvious to me that the low effort I put into it was sufficient given the conversation taking place, but then you went and just went all-out. It was one of the best posts you've ever made, and I applaud you for it. I have to admit, my original post...the one where I wrote this: 

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Doesn't the fact that our oft-injured undrafted starter entered the week with more yards on over 20 fewer carries really drive home the point that a first round running back is a tremendous waste for this team?

...I feel like ALL of the data as you've laid it out really still supports that point, and my opinion has not even remotely been moved by your otherwise thorough examination of the data.

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GW21

GW21

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10 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said:

 

Do it Johnny! I brought this up a couple weeks ago that it seemed like Gruden was getting frustrated with Cooper and that we should make a move. I think Cooper would be a fantastic fit in the offense. 

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