Is Alvin Kamara the best Running Back in the NFL?

[GSUeagles14]

6 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Of course not. CMac is a stud. I’m simply explaining that you can’t simply use generalized statistics to compare the ability of players. I was encouraging the guy to give me something objective and less prone to multi variables than stats. Again...he can’t because he’s not willing to put in the work to do it. It’s there...but it’s lazy box score analysis. When Kamara was producing more than CMac his first season, it was do to his conditions...but now that it’s the other way around it’s justifiable. It’s laziness and inconsistency that makes this annoying. 

i cant tell if this is trolling or not. i already pointed out the hypocrisy (which you ignored) but now im thinking it may just be ignorance.

[ET80]

18 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

So stats that are heavily dictated by usage, scheme, and blocking are your answer. Gotcha. 

I get what you're trying to say here - but a granular dive into usage, scheme and blocking would only further prove that McCaffrey is a better RB. It would probably make this a no contest in favor of Run CMC, if we're being honest about it:

Usage - Kamara has both immediate and ancillary options to limit his usage. Latavais Murray is there to take carries away (immediate) and Michael Thomas is there as an option in the passing game (ancillary). McCaffrey has emerging options in the passing game with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel (ancillary) but no immediate option to take carries away. 

Verdict: More to defend on the Saints, so usage will be less for Kamara in terms of touch, but additional assets should lead to less of a focus on Kamara. Advantage, Kamara.

Scheme - Sean Payton is perhaps the best offensive mind in football, certainly the most accomplished (Sean McVay and Andy Reid are still missing rings). Norv Turner has been fired from several HC jobs, and his most recent OC gig was with Arizona, which lasted less than half the season - when he was fired in favor of QB coach Byron Leftwich.

Verdict: We're talking "Ford Pinto vs Ferrari 360 Modena" type difference on this one. SIGNIFICANT advantage to Kamara.

Blocking - The Saints boast the best offensive line in football, bar none. There is very little doubt that Armstead, Peat, McCoy, Warford and Ramczyk are the best overall unit right now playing, ahead of Dallas or Chicago at this point. You'll have to go further down the list to find the Panthers. They're not a bad line, but not a great one either.

Verdict: It's not "Ford Pinto vs Ferrari" at least. It's probably "Ford Mustang GT vs Ferrari" but make no mistake, Kamara have a distinct advantage here.

So, in each item that can help or hurt a RB, Kamara has an advantage. Perhaps a significant advantage, at that. Yet, CMC has more yards, more yards per carry and more receptions. Why is that - especially considering that the deck is pretty stacked in Kamara's favor?

[ET80]

21 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

CMac had a really impressive game this week...broke 5 tackles. Kamara broke 19 tackles this week. 

*18 tackles.

*Half of them came on three plays. The other half came on the other 22 plays.

*Per the Tweet, it was an "unofficial" count. 

It's impressive, but it shouldn't be the end all, be all on the subject. It's a small factor at most. I'd be more interested in seeing yards after contact - what's the point of breaking three tackles if tackle attempt #4 nets a three yard loss?

Show me yards after contact, that'll yield much more given what you're trying to illustrate.

[tyler735]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

I get what you're trying to say here - but a granular dive into usage, scheme and blocking would only further prove that McCaffrey is a better RB. It would probably make this a no contest, if we're being about it:

Usage - Kamara has both immediate and ancillary options to limit his usage. Latavais Murray is there to take carries away (immediate) and Michael Thomas is there as an option in the passing game (ancillary). McCaffrey has emerging options in the passing game with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel (ancillary) but no immediate option to take carries away. 

Verdict: More to defend on the Saints, so usage will be less for Kamara in terms of touch, but additional assets should lead to less of a focus on Kamara. Advantage, Kamara.

Scheme - Sean Payton is perhaps the best offensive mind in football, certainly the most accomplished (Sean McVay and Andy Reid are still missing rings). Norv Turner has been fired from several HC jobs, and his most recent OC gig was with Arizona, which lasted less than half the season.

Verdict: We're talking "Ford Pinto vs Ferrari 360 Modena" type difference on this one. SIGNIFICANT advantage to Kamara.

Blocking - The Saints boast the best offensive line in football, bar none. There is very little doubt that Armstead, Peat, McCoy, Warford and Ramczyk are the best overall unit right now playing, ahead of Dallas or Chicago at this point. You'll have to go further down the list to find the Panthers. They're not a bad line, but not a great one either.

Verdict: It's not "Ford Pinto vs Ferrari" at least. It's probably "Ford Mustang GT vs Ferrari" but make no mistake, Kamara have a distinct advantage here.

So, in each item that can help or hurt a RB, Kamara has an advantage. Perhaps a significant advantage, at that. Yet, CMC has more yards, more yards per carry and more receptions. Why is that, especially considering that the deck is pretty stacked in Kamara's favor?

In regards to blocking. I don't know that it's as cut and dry as you make it out to be. On paper there is no disagreement from me the Saints have had an elite OL. However, last year that OL was very banged up much of the year.

Terron Armstead (elite LT) played in 10 games last year, but he was playing hurt a chunk of the season as well. He essentially was an asset for half the year at best last season.

Andrus Peat our starting LG missed a few games last season and battled injuries.

Max Unger played all year, but he wasn't the elite Center he had been in years past there was a decline in his play and he is now retired.

Ryan Ramczyk played 15 games, and was a beast. Probably our most consistent performer on the OL.

Larry Warford played in 15 games and was mostly solid last year.

Jermon Bushrod played in 11 games last season, his best years well past him and is now retired.

It's no coincidence that Kamara and Ingram had some of their best performances last season when the Saints OL was healthy and playing their regular starters. As I'm sure you're aware OL's need to be in sync with each other to truly be effective units. For a good chunk of last season we were shifting guys around on the OL and it wasn't as good as advertised for much of the 2nd half of the year last season. 

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by tyler735

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

Sean Payton is perhaps the best offensive mind in football, certainly the most accomplished (Sean McVay and Andy Reid are still missing rings).

I dont disagree with you that Payton>>Norv... But Norv has a helluva resume as well. You are discounting him pretty hardcore here.

[Jlowe22]

1 hour ago, ET80 said:

I get what you're trying to say here - but a granular dive into usage, scheme and blocking would only further prove that McCaffrey is a better RB. It would probably make this a no contest in favor of Run CMC, if we're being honest about it:

Usage - Kamara has both immediate and ancillary options to limit his usage. Latavais Murray is there to take carries away (immediate) and Michael Thomas is there as an option in the passing game (ancillary). McCaffrey has emerging options in the passing game with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel (ancillary) but no immediate option to take carries away. 

Verdict: More to defend on the Saints, so usage will be less for Kamara in terms of touch, but additional assets should lead to less of a focus on Kamara. Advantage, Kamara.

Scheme - Sean Payton is perhaps the best offensive mind in football, certainly the most accomplished (Sean McVay and Andy Reid are still missing rings). Norv Turner has been fired from several HC jobs, and his most recent OC gig was with Arizona, which lasted less than half the season - when he was fired in favor of QB coach Byron Leftwich.

Verdict: We're talking "Ford Pinto vs Ferrari 360 Modena" type difference on this one. SIGNIFICANT advantage to Kamara.

Blocking - The Saints boast the best offensive line in football, bar none. There is very little doubt that Armstead, Peat, McCoy, Warford and Ramczyk are the best overall unit right now playing, ahead of Dallas or Chicago at this point. You'll have to go further down the list to find the Panthers. They're not a bad line, but not a great one either.

Verdict: It's not "Ford Pinto vs Ferrari" at least. It's probably "Ford Mustang GT vs Ferrari" but make no mistake, Kamara have a distinct advantage here.

So, in each item that can help or hurt a RB, Kamara has an advantage. Perhaps a significant advantage, at that. Yet, CMC has more yards, more yards per carry and more receptions. Why is that - especially considering that the deck is pretty stacked in Kamara's favor?

I’m not sure the OL as a unit is elite.  The tackles are elite, but the unit gets destroyed too often.  The Rams had a field day against our oline, and the Texans rushed 3 a lot. 

Theres also no depth there, and when Armstead inevitably goes down, there is a big difference in the entire units performance.  

As far as how it compares to Carolina’s or Kamara’s blockers vs Cmac, that’s a different story.

[ET80]

Just now, Matts4313 said:

I dont disagree with you that Payton>>Norv... But Norv has a helluva resume as well. You are discounting him pretty hardcore here.

He does. But from what I saw last season, the game has really passed him up, he's trying to play early 00 football when we're moving on to 2020 football. Pro style, "Dot the I" formation with a lead blocker, no pre snap motion, no option routes, old school maulers on the OL - y'know, old school "zero fast trap" sort of stuff, when DL were 320 mountains of fat, LBs ran 5.0 40s and DBs couldn't play in the box effectively. This worked like a charm back in the late 90s, and into the early 00s, but then...suddenly, every single position for faster. 

I'm seeing a bit of diversity in his strategy with Carolina, but it's still rooted in older concepts. 

[ET80]

11 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

In regards to blocking. I don't know that it's as cut and dry as you make it out to be. On paper there is no disagreement from me the Saints have had an elite OL. However, last year that OL was very banged up much of the year.

Terron Armstead (elite LT) played in 10 games last year, but he was playing hurt a chunk of the season as well. He essentially was an asset for half the year at best last season.

Andrus Peat our starting LG missed a few games last season and battled injuries.

Max Unger played all year, but he wasn't the elite Center he had been in years past there was a decline in his play and he is now retired.

Ryan Ramczyk played 15 games, and was a beast. Probably our most consistent performer on the OL.

Larry Warford played in 15 games and was mostly solid last year.

Jermon Bushrod played in 11 games last season, his best years well past him and is now retired.

It's no coincidence that Kamara and Ingram had some of their best performances last season when the Saints OL was healthy and playing their regular starters. As I'm sure you're aware OL's need to be in sync with each other to truly be effective units. For a good chunk of last season we were shifting guys around on the OL and it wasn't as good as advertised for much of the 2nd half of the year last season. 

 

1 minute ago, Jlowe22 said:

I’m not sure the OL as a unit is elite.  The tackles are elite, but the unit gets destroyed too often.  The Rams had a field day against our oline, and the Texans rushed 3 a lot. 

Theres also no depth there, and when Armstead inevitably goes down, there is a big difference in the entire units performance.  

As far as how it compares to Carolina’s or Kamara’s blockers vs Cmac, that’s a different story.

I can concede to some of this, but key here is in bold - Carolina's OL was pretty bad. Matt Kalil was a projected starter, which should tell you EVERYTHING. 

[tyler735]

23 minutes ago, ET80 said:

 

I can concede to some of this, but key here is in bold - Carolina's OL was pretty bad. Matt Kalil was a projected starter, which should tell you EVERYTHING. 

Look I'm not saying the Saints had it bad by any means, but I think Carolina's OL is being downplayed here in the run game. McCaffrey was one of my all time favorite RB prospects, and I had hoped prior to the draft a couple years ago he'd slide to the Saints (obviously I'm pretty pumped about how it all worked out for the Saints), but needless to say, I'm a big McCaffrey fan despite his team being the Panthers. I have watched a ton of his games since entering the league, and was constantly telling people on here during/after his rookie season that they would be eating crow for saying he wouldn't develop into an excellent weapon at RB once he had better blocking. That certainly happened from year 1 to year 2 for him. In year 2 there were fairly consistent holes that weren't there his rookie season. At this point I don't think much if anything separates the top 3 RB's, which I have as Kamara, McCaffrey, and Barkley (In no order really). Each I feel an argument could be made for. 

 

A few statistical notes below according to Pro-Football-Reference:

 

McCaffrey last season had 2.9 Yards Before Contact per rush attempt, and Kamara had 2.4 Yards Before Contact per rush attempt. This stat seems to paint a picture of the Panthers OL doing a bit better job of creating holes to run through before any contact was made on the RB.

In 2018 Kamara averaged 2.2 yards after contact per rush. 21 total broken tackles (Rushing). Broken tackle every 9.2 rush attempts.

In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 2.1 yards after contact per rush. 16 total broken tackles (Rushing). Broken tackle every 14.6 rush attempts.

In other words, Kamara averaged more yards after breaking tackles, and broke tackles at a much higher rate per rush attempt last year.

 

It's also worth noting Kamara ran for 62 first downs compared to McCaffrey's 53 first downs (on 25 fewer rush attempts).  Not the biggest stat in the world, but worth noting.

 

In 2018 Kamara averaged 11.7 receptions per broken tackle

In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 15.3 receptions per broken tackle

In other words Kamara was breaking tackles at a higher rate than McCaffrey in the receiving game. 

 

In 2018 Kamara averaged 106 yards of offense per game. Kamara had .93 rushing touchdowns per game, and .27 receiving touchdowns per game (18 TD's total)  

In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 122 yards of offense per game. McCaffrey had .44 rushing touchdowns per game, and .37 receiving touchdowns per game (13 TD's total)

 

I'm not sure how much I trust some of these numbers for Broken Tackles as they seem pretty low for both RB's and I suppose that stat can be a bit subjective to what constitutes a broken tackle, but regardless, I don't think McCaffrey breaks tackles as effectively as Kamara does, and with Kamara's insane balance, it seems he picks up more yards after contact than just about any RB in the league from what I've seen.

Edited September 24, 2019 by tyler735

[ET80]

1 minute ago, tyler735 said:

Look I'm not saying the Saints had it bad by any means, but I think Carolina's OL is being downplayed here in the run game. McCaffrey was one of my all time favorite RB prospects, and I had hoped prior to the draft a couple years ago he'd slide to the Saints (obviously I'm pretty pumped about how it all worked out for the Saints), but needless to say, I'm a big McCaffrey fan despite his team being the Panthers. I have watched a ton of his games since entering the league, and was constantly telling people on here during/after his rookie season that they would be eating crow for saying he wouldn't develop into an excellent weapon at RB once he had better blocking. That certainly happened from year 1 to year 2 for him. In year 2 there were fairly consistent holes that weren't there his rookie season. At this point I don't think much if anything separates the top 3 RB's, which I have a Kamara, McCaffrey, and Barkley. Each I feel an argument could be made for. 

 

A few statistical notes below according to Pro-Football-Reference:

 

McCaffrey last season had 2.9 Yards Before Contact per rush attempt, and Kamara had 2.4 Yards Before Contact per rush attempt. This stat seems to paint a picture of the Panthers OL doing a bit better job of creating holes to run through before any contact was made on the RB.

In 2018 Kamara averaged 2.2 yards after contact per rush. 21 total broken tackles (Rushing). Broken tackle every 9.2 rush attempts.

In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 2.1 yards after contact per rush. 16 total broken tackles (Rushing). Broken tackle every 14.6 rush attempts.

In other words, Kamara averaged more yards after breaking tackles, and broke tackles at a much higher rate per rush attempt last year.

 

It's also worth noting Kamara ran for 62 first downs compared to McCaffrey's 53 first downs (on 25 fewer rush attempts). Kamara also  Not the biggest stat in the world, but worth noting.

 

In 2018 Kamara averaged 11.7 receptions per broken tackle

In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 15.3 receptions per broken tackle

In other words Kamara was breaking tackles at a higher rate than McCaffrey in the receiving game. 

 

In 2018 Kamara averaged 106 yards of offense per game. Kamara had .93 rushing touchdowns per game, and .27 receiving touchdowns per game (18 TD's total)  

In 2018 McCaffrey averaged 122 yards of offense per game. McCaffrey had .44 rushing touchdowns per game, and .37 receiving touchdowns per game (13 TD's total)

 

I'm not sure how much I trust some of these numbers for Broken Tackles as they seem pretty low for both RB's and I suppose that stat can be a bit subjective to what constitutes a broken tackle, but regardless, I don't think McCaffrey breaks tackles as effectively as Kamara does, and with Kamara's insane balance, it seems he picks up more yards after contact than just about any RB in the league from what I've seen.

This is actually a solid read. A lot to take in and think about, but I wanted to applaud you for you effort in advance.

[El Ramster]

Go watch that Saints vs Vikings Game and tell me the NFL didn’t gift the Katrina Saints that game. Till this day the most badly officiated game in the history of the NFL. 

 

Reid and Mcvay>>> Sean. Way too many 7-9

seasons to be put at their level. @ET80come on bro. Go watch that vikings game. Refs handed them that crap. Sean has done the least with a HOF QB than any other HC IMO.

 

[ET80]

1 minute ago, ITS_RAMMY_PLAYBOI said:

Go watch that Saints vs Vikings Game and tell me the NFL didn’t gift the Katrina Saints that game. Till this day the most badly officiated game in the history of the NFL. 

No. This is:

2 minutes ago, ITS_RAMMY_PLAYBOI said:

Reid and Mcvay>>> Sean. Way too many 7-9

seasons to be put at their level. @ET80come on bro. Go watch that vikings game. Refs handed them that crap. Sean has done the least with a HOF QB than any other HC IMO.

So, out of everything that's been written on the last page, THIS is what you take from it? Seriously? THIS?

This is why we can't have nice things. 

[El Ramster]

Just now, ET80 said:

No. This is:

So, out of everything that's been written on the last page, THIS is what you take from it? Seriously? THIS?

This is why we can't have nice things. 

You missed the other calls against the rams that game. But of course. That call isn’t half as bad if you actually watched the Vikings Game!!!! UNREAL. 

[ET80]

Just now, ITS_RAMMY_PLAYBOI said:

You missed the other calls against the rams that game

Exactly. The biggest call is missed, but several smaller calls were missed. Ergo...

5 minutes ago, ITS_RAMMY_PLAYBOI said:

the most badly officiated game in the history of the NFL. 

 

[El Ramster]

3 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Exactly. The biggest call is missed, but several smaller calls were missed. Ergo...

 

No. No. Just no. No mono just no.