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KC_Guy

Alex Smiths future

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KC_Guy    8

I hate to do this but we need to get something rolling again.

So I'll toss this one out: Whats going to happen to Alex after this season? Whats his worth?

I assume the Chiefs are planning for Pat Mahomes taking over the reins next year. So what are they going to do with Smith? Just cut him? I don't think so. Trade him? Much better. May be they can recoup some of the investment they made in 2013. 

His 17 M$ contract (14.5 M$ base, 2 M$ roster bonus, 0.5 M$ workout bonus) should probably be considered good value for an experienced starting QB - and I think he still has 5+ years left. So he may be a bridging solution or a mid-term leader somewhere else.

However, the league knows about the Chiefs' situation, so this may lower the willingness to spend. But with so manyteams where the position is in limbo - there will be a taker.

 

So: What is his trade value after let's say a good season that takes the Chiefs to the play-offs? I'd say a second and change.

 

The big if: The brass needs to be convinced that Mahomes is ready to take over. If not they'll keep Smith around. Cap or not.

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CWood21    110
42 minutes ago, KC_Guy said:

So: What is his trade value after let's say a good season that takes the Chiefs to the play-offs? I'd say a second and change.

As long as Mahomes is on the rookie contract, the cap implications of Alex Smith shouldn't really affect their team decision too much.  Alex Smith has a cap hit of $20.6M for next year, and only will count towards $3.6M in dead cap if they release him.  Given his large cap hit, and the fact that it's only one year left on his contract I think getting a 2nd round pick for him would be a generous price and probably not something a team is willing to do.  I think you might get an early Day 3 pick, but I'm not sure any team is going to give up a second round pick for him.

Any thoughts @Jakuvious, @valkrei, @kingseanjohn, @onejayhawk, @chiefs82, @Chiefs_5627, @chiefsfan13084, @chiefsfan482, @ChiefsFtw, @chiefsxfanx88, @Chiefer, @Chieferific?

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KC_Guy    8
2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

As long as Mahomes is on the rookie contract, the cap implications of Alex Smith shouldn't really affect their team decision too much.  Alex Smith has a cap hit of $20.6M for next year, and only will count towards $3.6M in dead cap if they release him.  Given his large cap hit, and the fact that it's only one year left on his contract I think getting a 2nd round pick for him would be a generous price and probably not something a team is willing to do.  I think you might get an early Day 3 pick, but I'm not sure any team is going to give up a second round pick for him.

Any thoughts @Jakuvious, @valkrei, @kingseanjohn, @onejayhawk, @chiefs82, @Chiefs_5627, @chiefsfan13084, @chiefsfan482, @ChiefsFtw, @chiefsxfanx88, @Chiefer, @Chieferific?

Chiefs gave up TWO 2nds for him on a one year (left) contract ... when he was a shabby backup in SF ...

Look at Sam Bradford (well, MIN was in a BAD situation) ... a 1st and a 4th? I consider a 2nd fair ... at the lower end.

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CWood21    110
Just now, KC_Guy said:

Chiefs gave up TWO 2nds for him on a one year (left) contract ... when he was a shabby backup in SF ...

Look at Sam Bradford (well, MIN was in a BAD situation) ... a 1st and a 4th? I consider a 2nd fair ... at the lower end.

Chiefs also acquired Alex Smith when he was 29 years old and had a cap hit of $8.5M in his first season.  The team acquiring Alex Smith in this theoretical trade would be acquiring for a 34 year old QB with a cap hit of $20.6M.  That's a HUGE difference between the two.

As for the Bradford/Smith comparison, I'd argue that was a really weird situation.  The Vikings had playoff (and Super Bowl) aspirations, and they lost their starting QB to a major injury, one in which they didn't know if he'd even return to a football field.  Not to mention, I don't think the Eagles felt they needed to trade Bradford.  They were only going to trade him if they got an offer that was overwhelming, which most thought that the Vikings overpaid.

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KC_Guy    8
1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Chiefs also acquired Alex Smith when he was 29 years old and had a cap hit of $8.5M in his first season.  The team acquiring Alex Smith in this theoretical trade would be acquiring for a 34 year old QB with a cap hit of $20.6M.  That's a HUGE difference between the two.

As for the Bradford/Smith comparison, I'd argue that was a really weird situation.  The Vikings had playoff (and Super Bowl) aspirations, and they lost their starting QB to a major injury, one in which they didn't know if he'd even return to a football field.  Not to mention, I don't think the Eagles felt they needed to trade Bradford.  They were only going to trade him if they got an offer that was overwhelming, which most thought that the Vikings overpaid.

The cap hit would be 17 M$ ... 3.6 M$ would stick with the Chiefs. And the Chiefs might even take the 2 M$ roster bonus.

A seasoned starting QB for 15 M$ with a bunch of years left?? Geesh .. Im sure there will be takers.

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Jakuvious    95

The trouble with trading a QB like Smith is you need really certain situations around the league for their to be any demand for him whatsoever. He'll be an upgrade at the position to maybe 10 teams, or so, at that time, but a chunk of those would be thrown out because they have young QBs they want to work with, a few would be thrown out because they're really not looking to contend for anything at all, and then a few probably wouldn't have the cap space to work it. You basically need a team with ample cap room, who is looking to contend immediately, and already has a roster outside of the QB position that can contend. Basically, we need a team like us from a few years ago to make it work. Or like Minnesota last year. Or even a recent Houston type team. But there aren't any of those around right now. With a year gone by, you could maybe get the Rams or Jags to bite if Goff and Bortles flop again (would add Broncos and Lynch, but that's doubtful for obvious reasons.) Maybe if someone like Ben or Palmer or Eli retire suddenly. Or if you have an injury like Bridgewater or Tannehill. But that's a lot of ifs, and it's very plausible that none happen and that there's just no market for him.

I think we'll either have to cut him or try to work out a restructure to keep him on as a backup/mentor, depending on how he views his possibilities in the NFL at that point, and how pressed we are against next year's cap (I can't recall who we have to sign or deal with next year, at the moment.) I really don't think the market will be there for a trade unless we get very lucky and some other team gets very unlucky.

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CWood21    110
45 minutes ago, KC_Guy said:

The cap hit would be 17 M$ ... 3.6 M$ would stick with the Chiefs. And the Chiefs might even take the 2 M$ roster bonus.

A seasoned starting QB for 15 M$ with a bunch of years left?? Geesh .. Im sure there will be takers.

You still have to negotiate a new contract, and is he willing to do a 4 year, $60M extension?  My guess is not.  Mike Glennon just got a 3 year, $45M deal from the Bears this past offseason and the previous offseason Brock Osweiler got a 4 year, $72M deal from the Texans.  My guess is he's going to want 4 years, $72M minimum to sign an extension.  And that would put him at the 16th highest paid QB tied with Osweiler and Sam Bradford.

Plus you have to look at the teams who would have motivation to acquire Smith, and the ones who are probably looking at someone with a long term picture.  A team like the Jets or 49ers are probably less inclined to look at a stop-gap QB than say a team like the Redskins (if they let Kirk Cousins walk).  I think the market goes down tremendously when you exclude teams who probably prefer guys like Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen to Alex Smith.

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ColeTrain    1
2 hours ago, KC_Guy said:

I hate to do this but we need to get something rolling again.

So I'll toss this one out: Whats going to happen to Alex after this season? Whats his worth?

I assume the Chiefs are planning for Pat Mahomes taking over the reins next year. So what are they going to do with Smith? Just cut him? I don't think so. Trade him? Much better. May be they can recoup some of the investment they made in 2013. 

 

There's a lot of things that go into this decision, I think. Mahomes is certainly exciting, I think that statement is more than fair to make at this point. Whether he's ready to start for a team like the Chiefs next year is a different question. Despite naysayers, Smith has definitely done a lot for the Chiefs, game manager or not. A very winning QB. Mahomes has to be BETTER than Smith (i.e. able to get more wins, take the team further) to take over the position. Otherwise, like you said, the Chiefs are going to keep Smith around. My biggest question is this: why would Smith be willing to mentor Mahomes when he knows Mahomes is there for the sole intent of replacing him? That'd be a hard thing to swallow as a QB. The organization is going to have to make sure Smith is willing to teach. But, for the purpose of your question (and it's a legitimate one), let's assume Mahomes is good to go next year and looks primed for a starting position.

Smith is viewed as a game manager, and not really thought of as an exciting player. His success has been largely attributed to a stellar supporting cast on the defensive side of the ball. That can't be denied, even by the most ardent Chiefs fans. Yet, I still think he's a step above most of the QBs starting in the NFL today (especially people like Bortles, Bradford, Cutler, Goff, etc.). A track record like his makes him appealing, but I don't the Chiefs will get what they want out of him. As far as draft picks are concerned, I can't see them getting better than a mid 2nd round pick unless a desperate situation comes up like Miami had this year. 

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KC_Guy    8
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You still have to negotiate a new contract, and is he willing to do a 4 year, $60M extension?  My guess is not.  Mike Glennon just got a 3 year, $45M deal from the Bears this past offseason and the previous offseason Brock Osweiler got a 4 year, $72M deal from the Texans.  My guess is he's going to want 4 years, $72M minimum to sign an extension.  And that would put him at the 16th highest paid QB tied with Osweiler and Sam Bradford.

Plus you have to look at the teams who would have motivation to acquire Smith, and the ones who are probably looking at someone with a long term picture.  A team like the Jets or 49ers are probably less inclined to look at a stop-gap QB than say a team like the Redskins (if they let Kirk Cousins walk).  I think the market goes down tremendously when you exclude teams who probably prefer guys like Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen to Alex Smith.

Exactly. Those numbers show me how desperate teams are for a somewhat decent QB. Would you take Alex for lets say 20 M$/year or Glennon for 15 M$/year?

Edited by KC_Guy

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CWood21    110
Just now, KC_Guy said:

Exactly. Those numbers show me how desperate teams are for a somewhat decent QB. Would you take Alex for 20 M$/year or Glennon for 15 M$/year?

Except it's not that cut and dry...you just said you expect a 2nd round pick and change for Alex Smith.  Let's say you're wiling to accept a 2nd round pick straight-up for Smith, and then willing to give him that $20M/year extension.  IF that's the case, I'd take Glennon at $15M/year over Alex Smith at $20M/year PLUS that 2nd round pick.  If we were talking about just the contracts alone, obviously I'd take Alex Smith but Alex Smith isn't a 2nd round pick better than Mike Glennon for most teams.

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KC_Guy    8
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Except it's not that cut and dry...you just said you expect a 2nd round pick and change for Alex Smith.  Let's say you're wiling to accept a 2nd round pick straight-up for Smith, and then willing to give him that $20M/year extension.  IF that's the case, I'd take Glennon at $15M/year over Alex Smith at $20M/year PLUS that 2nd round pick.  If we were talking about just the contracts alone, obviously I'd take Alex Smith but Alex Smith isn't a 2nd round pick better than Mike Glennon for most teams.

Good thing for the Chiefs then: Glennon is off the market for now .. ;-) Who else will be available? Garrapolo? Asking price not lower than 20 M$ I think. Oh, and Cousins, and may be Osweiler ...

Edited by KC_Guy

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CWood21    110
1 minute ago, KC_Guy said:

Good thing for the Chiefs then: Glennon is off the market for now .. ;-) Who else will be available? Garrapolo? Asking price not lower than 20 M$ I think. Oh, and Cousins, and may be Osweiler ...

Looking at a rather rough list, you've got the rebuilding teams who are probably in the market will probably prefer Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen to Alex Smith.  And I'd probably be inclined to believe they'd prefer Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph, and/or Josh Allen over him as well.  As for the teams with a win-now mentality, you'd probably have Drew Brees (likely to remain with New Orleans IMO), Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford (potential franchise tag candidate), and Matthew Stafford (guaranteed franchise tag) to Alex Smith and a 2nd round pick.

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CWood21    110
9 minutes ago, KC_Guy said:

That's a fairly short list

And how many teams are actively looking to replace their starting QB?  You've got the Jets, Broncos (depends on how this season goes), Redskins (depending on Cousins situation), Cardinals, and 49ers.  Jets/49ers likely are looking for their franchise QB via the draft, unless the Niners sign Cousins.  So that means that you're relying on the Redskins or Cardinals to want Alex Smith.

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onejayhawk    4

I don't buy all this. Alex Smith has real value as a rental and as a back up. This is his "Show me the money" season. He has been a competent game manager and suddenly he has a raft of speed at WR--for the first time in a long career. We will see if he can jack the asking up some more.

In any event, a 2nd round pick is a lowball. 

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