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Week 4 Gameday Thread


Johnny Nix

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Just now, BlaqOptic said:

Couple of issues with your assesment there chief...

Fourth and Four is never "easily manageable." If it were, teams would be going for it on 4th down like clockwork.

Valid point.

Houston would've had to go about 80 yards baring a great return from the Texans returnman, with no timeouts.

20 yards is a lot easier to get and more manageable than 60.

 

If you punt, you're settling for best-case scenario of a tie and a 1-2-1 record.

Is anyone happy with a coach who's content with that? I'm not.

 

On the other hand, if you get the fourth down, you're in Houston territory, and chances are high you win the game. You go to 2-2 and remain a playoff contender.

 

Give me the coach who goes for it on fourth-and-four with the greatest kicker in NFL history, and fights to get back to .500, any day of the week over the coach playing for the tie.

Give me aggressive-but-reasonable play calling over timid, low-standards play calling every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

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Just now, Jared Jammer said:

 

If you punt, you're settling for best-case scenario of a tie and a 1-2-1 record.

Is anyone happy with a coach who's content with that? I'm not.

 

On the other hand, if you get the fourth down, you're in Houston territory, and chances are high you win the game. You go to 2-2 and remain a playoff contender.

 

Give me the coach who goes for it on fourth-and-four with the greatest kicker in NFL history, and fights to get back to .500, any day of the week over the coach playing for the tie.

Give me aggressive-but-reasonable play calling over timid, low-standards play calling every day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

The problem is it wasn't reasonable given you were on the opponents side of the field with more to lose than to gain given the clock and the opposition's number of timeouts, two things you clearly haven't factored in.

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17 minutes ago, Jared Jammer said:

-but-reasonable

This is where you are failing.

I'm big on going for it on 4th down more and 2 pt conversions two but this wasn't reasonable.

And I want a coach that plays for the optimal result, no the idealist result. In that situation at that point taking the chances of conversion and likelihood of scoring if you make it or the other team scoring if you don't the optimal decision is to punt.

Wanting to play for a win instead of a tie is not analysis, it's wishful thinking

There is only a 50% chance of conversion https://imgur.com/a/5UU6dbK#Q7FF1iR
And that is best case. It's actually lower since the Texans weren't really going to worry about a bomb and there is no run threat either significantly limiting what they have to defend.

And your chances of scoring are less if you convert than their chances are of scoring if you miss.

The chances of them scoring if you punt is basically 0

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