Which AFCS QB would you take?

[.Buzz]

11 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

bortles been "clearly superior statistically" for one season and i guess two and a half games if you really want to extend that argument into this year. that one season was the worst of mariota's career by a wide margin. he was (at least close to) fully healthy for the first time all year today and you saw what he was able to do. so yeah, not really ready to call it on this one.

I mean, why wouldn't we be basing it on most recent play? This isn't some small sample size, we're talking about a full season last year. If we're talking how we would rank them right now, why would we be infusing what these guys were doing multiple years ago which is clearly not where they are now?

6 minutes ago, TitanLegend said:

Fahey has a lot of weird rankings. But his statistics, which hold true, show how misleading Mariota's statline makes his 2017 season look.

The 10th-14thish rank I have him in isn't a wow group of QBs. It's the Mariota/Watson/Carr/Cousins/Tannehill type group. Guys who aren't elite but you can win with assuming you can build a competent team. It's where I've had Mariota since his rookie year. It's where I had him after his 2016 season where everyone was going crazy over him and Carr being the next elite QBs(which I called ridiculous in both cases, can ask people in the Titans forum and Raiders forum about that).

People act as if there's a ton of great QBs in the NFL. There's like 3 elite guys in Brady/Brees/Rodgers. Group of very good guys like Wilson, Roethlisberger, Luck. Guys like Wentz, Goff and Newton in the next group(Wentz and maybe Goff with the potential to move up). Then you've got the group/tier with guys like Mariota and the others I listed. Decent to good QBs.

Yet he's on pace for the same type of stat line this year. Sure he's had an injury, but Blake played with one all of last year too and didn't get surgery until this offseason. There can be excuses for any player.

As far as your group of guys you can win with assuming you build a competent team, are you just glossing over the fact the Jaguars were in the AFCG last year with Blake at the helm and went toe to toe with the AFC champion in the Patriots or? Not sure why Mariota would obviously be on that list but Bortles isn't even though he clearly showed with a good defense and some semblance of a running game (although it had plenty of issues last year) that he can do exactly that? I don't even view Bortles as a top 15 guy (he's more in the 18-20 range, but if he continues to play like he has this year/last years playoffs, than we'll see), but he's literally exactly what you just said right there with that group.

[iknowcool]

6 minutes ago, TitanLegend said:

Fahey has a lot of weird rankings. But his statistics, which hold true, show how misleading Mariota's statline makes his 2017 season look.

The 10th-14thish rank I have him in isn't a wow group of QBs. It's the Mariota/Watson/Carr/Cousins/Tannehill type group.

I think you are saying that ranking without actually thinking about the QBs though.

I mean look at my list of 14 I put on the last page.  Brady, Goff, Rodgers, Big Ben, Brees, Cam, Ryan, Rivers, Luck, Wilson, Smith, Cousins, Stafford, Wentz.  Who in that group are you taking Mariota over?  And that isn't even mentioning guys like Mahomes, Carr, Tannehill, Dalton, Watson, etc.  All of whom you could argue are equal to or better than Mariota ie. Dalton.  And like I said on the previous page, I wouldn't even consider Dalton vs Mariota a debate - Dalton is clearly better, but he gets overlooked/underrated.
 

And I read the stats.  The INTs numbers were interesting and I found it to be reasonable.  So not disputing that.  But there is no way Mariota is a top 14 QB.  There isn't a single guy in that list he has much of an argument over.

[-Hope-]

2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

I mean, why wouldn't we be basing it on most recent play? This isn't some small sample size, we're talking about a full season last year. If we're talking how we would rank them right now, why would we be infusing what these guys were doing multiple years ago which is clearly not where they are now?

i mean, what i specifically took issue with was acting as though mariota statistically was the sum of the 2.5 games he's played this year. 

there's reason enough, based on his prior performance, to believe that last year was an aberration for mariota. we can't say one way or another right now, though.

[.Buzz]

Just now, -Hope- said:

i mean, what i specifically took issue with was acting as though mariota statistically was the sum of the 2.5 games he's played this year. 

Fair enough. 

[TitanLegend]

Just now, iknowcool said:

I think you are saying that ranking without actually thinking about the QBs though.

I mean look at my list of 14 I put on the last page.  Brady, Goff, Rodgers, Big Ben, Brees, Cam, Ryan, Rivers, Luck, Wilson, Smith, Cousins, Stafford, Wentz.  Who in that group are you taking Mariota over?  And that isn't even mentioning guys like Mahomes, Carr, Tannehill, Dalton, Watson, etc.  All of whom you could argue are equal to or better than Mariota ie. Dalton.  And like I said on the previous page, I wouldn't even consider Dalton vs Mariota a debate - Dalton is clearly better, but he gets overlooked/underrated.
 

And I read the stats.  The INTs numbers were interesting and I found it to be reasonable.  So not disputing that.  But there is no way Mariota is a top 14 QB.

I generally go with tiers, cause as you said you get in to debates like Mariota vs Tannehill or Dalton and it's like splitting hairs and who really cares at that point. My tier lists would probably look something like this without a ton of thought in to it(they aren't in order inside of the tier btw, just as they come to mind)):

Tier 1:

Rodgers

Brady

Brees

Tier 2:

Roethlisberger

Wilson

Luck(assuming healthy)

Maybe Rivers?

Tier 3:

Maybe Rivers?

Newton

Wentz(possible to move up with continued play from last year)

Goff

Ryan

Stafford

Tier 4:

Mariota

Tannehill

Dalton

Carr

Cousins

Smith

Might be missing a name somewhere but I think this generally gets the point across.

I'd put Watson here too, but I generally want more out of a player before adding them to a tier list. Just as Mahomes is lighting the world on fire but I'm uncomfortable adding him to a tier list until I see at the very least a full season of play.

So I mean if you put Mariota outside of 14 at like 16 because you have Dalton, Tannehill, Smith, Carr all ahead of him or whatever I'm not gonna throw a fit about it. But somewhere in that range I listed is more than reasonable I think. I think listing solely off numbers(and shame on me for being the first to do it, but I was just trying to list a general range more than a concrete number) gets down to petty differences in players so I find tier lists more appealing.

I think Mariota has been in this same general tier his entire career, occasionally will have a game or stretches of games where he plays out of his mind and above this tier(Today, particularly in the 2nd half, played like he belongs in tier 1 or 2, but he's obviously not consistently at that level), and occasionally will have games or stretches where you wonder wtf happened to him. That's just what you get from this group, but generally they play a decent level.

[TitanLegend]

11 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

I mean, why wouldn't we be basing it on most recent play? This isn't some small sample size, we're talking about a full season last year. If we're talking how we would rank them right now, why would we be infusing what these guys were doing multiple years ago which is clearly not where they are now?

Yet he's on pace for the same type of stat line this year. Sure he's had an injury, but Blake played with one all of last year too and didn't get surgery until this offseason. There can be excuses for any player.

As far as your group of guys you can win with assuming you build a competent team, are you just glossing over the fact the Jaguars were in the AFCG last year with Blake at the helm and went toe to toe with the AFC champion in the Patriots or? Not sure why Mariota would obviously be on that list but Bortles isn't even though he clearly showed with a good defense and some semblance of a running game (although it had plenty of issues last year) that he can do exactly that? I don't even view Bortles as a top 15 guy (he's more in the 18-20 range, but if he continues to play like he has this year/last years playoffs, than we'll see), but he's literally exactly what you just said right there with that group.

I don't care what his numbers look like for a season after only playing in what amounts to like 2 and a half games. It's such a meaningless sample size, even ignoring the fact that he had no feeling in his hand on two of the interceptions, and if you watch the interceptions, it's pretty obvious that it's what caused the picks. People get so worked up over what teams or players do in september like it even matters. As if the Pats and Brady every year don't show how stupid that is. Or how the Broncos starting 3-1 last year didn't show that. Or the Saints starting 1-2 or 1-3 whatever it was last year didn't show that.

And no, Bortles is not in that group. He's behind that group. He's often a liability for his team and if it wasn't for having one of the best defenses in recent memory that would show even more than it already does. I said it back in the offseason, Bortles is who he has shown to be his entire career. A below average QB. Players don't generally change their stripes this late in their career. He can have games where he looks good at times, but he has games where he looks like he doesn't even belong on an NFL roster far too often as well. When he's not at one of those extremes, he's playing at a generally below average level, something that the Jags roster hides very well with the run game and #1 defense.

[pwny]

Mariota in the same tier as Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins.

 

I’m weak.

[TitanLegend]

3 minutes ago, pwny said:

I’m weak.

Have a lot in common with the Jags vs the Titans I guess.

Smith and Cousins certainly don't belong in the tier above though.

[.Buzz]

6 minutes ago, TitanLegend said:

I don't care what his numbers look like for a season after only playing in what amounts to like 2 and a half games. It's such a meaningless sample size, even ignoring the fact that he had no feeling in his hand on two of the interceptions, and if you watch the interceptions, it's pretty obvious that it's what caused the picks. People get so worked up over what teams or players do in september like it even matters. As if the Pats and Brady every year don't show how stupid that is. Or how the Broncos starting 3-1 last year didn't show that. Or the Saints starting 1-2 or 1-3 whatever it was last year didn't show that.

And no, Bortles is not in that group. He's behind that group. He's often a liability for his team and if it wasn't for having one of the best defenses in recent memory that would show even more than it already does. I said it back in the offseason, Bortles is who he has shown to be his entire career. A below average QB. Players don't generally change their stripes this late in their career. He can have games where he looks good at times, but he has games where he looks like he doesn't even belong on an NFL roster far too often as well. When he's not at one of those extremes, he's playing at a generally below average level, something that the Jags roster hides very well with the run game and #1 defense.

lol

There is zero reason to suggest since the beginning of the 2017 season to where we are now that the 2nd paragraph is even somewhat logical.

He takes care of the ball, was statistically the best redzone QB in the NFL last year, has definitely shown he can carry the offense/make plays in crunch times, and overall manages the game which is what Marrone and Hackett have usually designed him to do until he's shown serious leaps in play dating back to late in last season (which the stats back up).

If you want to base what Bortles in on his years with Gus Bradley in 2016 and prior, than be my guest. But that assessment is clearly you grouping in his early years with what he is now. It's pretty damn evident that he isn't the same QB. 

Mariota hasn't shown any semblance of being in that grouping since the beginning of last season into this year. None at all.

But I'm not shocked I'm having this discussion. 

[TitanLegend]

2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

lol

There is zero reason to suggest since the beginning of the 2017 season to where we are now that the 2nd paragraph is even somewhat logical.

He takes care of the ball, was statistically the best redzone QB in the NFL last year, has definitely shown he can carry the offense/make plays in crunch times, and overall manages the game which is what Marrone and Hackett have usually designed him to do until he's shown serious leaps in play dating back to late in last season (which the stats back up).

If you want to base what Bortles in on his years with Gus Bradley in 2016 and prior, than be my guest. But that assessment is clearly you grouping in his early years with what he is now. It's pretty damn evident that he isn't the same QB. 

Mariota hasn't shown any semblance of being in that grouping since the beginning of last season into this year. None at all.

But I'm not shocked I'm having this discussion. 

I've held the same opinion of Bortles for a few years now, yeah. I don't think he was as bad as it showed in statistics at times under Bradley. But regardless of who his coach is, he still has that god awful wind up on his throws, still can often be too inaccurate and still can make some pretty boneheaded throws. Maybe his most glaring/worst issue is the fact that if it doesn't go well from the start for him, it's probably not gonna go well at all during the game. His confidence can be easily shaken. Still has the ridiculous inconsistency too.

Mariota was pretty much the exact same QB last season that he's been his entire career, but because he got really unlucky with interceptions we're out here acting like there was some substantial change, even though every independent/unbiased analytics source says the same thing I'm telling you, but apparently I and all those analytics people and websites are wrong and you guys are right just cause his INT totals says so.. I said it during the season too, can find several post from me in the Titans forum mentioning it. Just as you can find posts from me in 2016 on the old forum mentioning how Mariota wasn't nearing elite status as his statistics might have suggested. I'm consistent in my analysis of Mariota, and I'm accurate, and I'm 100% confident in that. I have a pretty decent track record in analysis of QBs. Certainly not perfect by any means, but I feel confident in my analysis, especially after being give a couple seasons to see what each QB is made of.

[pwny]

He's been this guy for 23 games, but somehow he deserves to be in the same tier as Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins and other actual good QBs.

The only description that you could really use to explain this stretch of play is:

1 hour ago, TitanLegend said:

He can have games where he looks good at times, but he has games where he looks like he doesn't even belong on an NFL roster far too often as well. When he's not at one of those extremes, he's playing at a generally below average level

Except this was used to call Blake Bortles worse than Mariota, when it's actually a better representation for the QB Mariota has been for the last season and a half of play.

[.Buzz]

Just now, TitanLegend said:

I've held the same opinion of Bortles for a few years now, yeah. I don't think he was as bad as it showed in statistics at times under Bradley. But regardless of who his coach is, he still has that god awful wind up on his throws, still can often be too inaccurate and still can make some pretty boneheaded throws. Maybe his most glaring/worst issue is the fact that if it doesn't go well from the start for him, it's probably not gonna go well at all during the game. His confidence can be easily shaken. Still has the ridiculous inconsistency too.

Mariota was pretty much the exact same QB last season that he's been his entire career, but because he got really unlucky with interceptions we're out here acting like there was some substantial change, even though every independent/unbiased analytics source says the same thing I'm telling you, but apparently I and all those analytics people and websites are wrong and you guys are right just cause his INT totals says so.. I said it during the season too, can find several post from me in the Titans forum mentioning it. Just as you can find posts from me in 2016 on the old forum mentioning how Mariota wasn't nearing elite status as his statistics might have suggested. I'm consistent in my analysis of Mariota, and I'm accurate, and I'm 100% confident in that. I have a pretty decent track record in analysis of QBs. Certainly not perfect by any means, but I feel confident in my analysis, especially after being give a couple seasons to see what each QB is made of.

IDK, it sure looks to me like excuses are being made both ways. 

If you seriously think the guy in 2016 is the same guy as last year (most efficient redzone QB, double TD/INT ratio, jumps in efficiency/accuracy, top 5 statistically as a rushing QB in NFL History statistically), than this whole thing is pointless to even dissect.

It's fine though, people get their heads set on stuff they see from guys the first couple years and nothing can change that. Even more so from a division rival (who he hasn't had his best games against recently). Never expect a Titans fan to say anything that even somewhat gives the man credit.

Yet, he made it to the AFCCG and carried the offense/team at times dating back to midseason last year. Our defense might be good, but this whole "defense is the only reason why we're winning" is getting out of hand. Are they why we're one of the top teams in the AFC? Of course, no one is acting like Blake is a franchise altering guy that carries a team to the playoffs. But that doesn't mean he isn't a solid QB that has done his part in this whole thing. 

 

[seminoles1]

55 minutes ago, TitanLegend said:

Have a lot in common with the Jags vs the Titans I guess.

Smith and Cousins certainly don't belong in the tier above though.

Whatever tier system you want to use, they are at least 1 tier above Mariota.

[TitanLegend]

7 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

Whatever tier system you want to use, they are at least 1 tier above Mariota.

They don't belong with people like potentially Rivers, Newton, Ryan. I'm not gonna create a separate tier for two guys who are marginally better than the ones in that tier at best. Not much sense in it.

[patriotsheatyan]

56 minutes ago, TitanLegend said:

They don't belong with people like potentially Rivers, Newton, Ryan. I'm not gonna create a separate tier for two guys who are marginally better than the ones in that tier at best. Not much sense in it.

Both of them are better than Newton at least comparable to Stafford. Even Wentz really only has a 12game stretch of high level play on a great team and has never played a postseason game.