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Rolni

State of our team

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2 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I look at the fact the team doesn't know where "home" is for 2019. Lot of distraction in the making. And just the schedule itself:

vs. Denver Broncos 6 10 0 0.375 -0.5 Past Matchups
at Denver Broncos 6 10 0 0.375 -0.5 Past Matchups
vs. Kansas City Chiefs 12 4 0 0.750 8.9 Past Matchups
at Kansas City Chiefs 12 4 0 0.750 8.9 Past Matchups
vs. Los Angeles Chargers 12 4 0 0.750 6.0 Past Matchups
at Los Angeles Chargers 12 4 0 0.750 6.0 Past Matchups
at Indianapolis Colts 10 6 0 0.625 3.4 Past Matchups
at Houston Texans 11 5 0 0.688 3.8 Past Matchups
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11 0 0.313 -4.0 Past Matchups
vs. Tennessee Titans 9 7 0 0.563 0.2 Past Matchups
vs. Chicago Bears 12 4 0 0.750 6.3 Past Matchups
vs. Detroit Lions 6 10 0 0.375 -3.0 Past Matchups
at Green Bay Packers 6 9 1 0.406 -2.7 Past Matchups
at Minnesota Vikings 8 7 1 0.531 0.6 Past Matchups

Granted teams will change year over year, but what game would the Raiders even be favored in? I don't see 8 wins against those teams personally even upgrading the roster. 4-6 wins right now looks more likely.

We also have the Bengals at home and the Jets on the road (other 4th placed teams this year), which may well be the easiest two on the schedule. You're right, it's a rough list of games, and 6 wins wouldn't be a terrible return based on that.

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We have some pieces in place, we have continuity in the coaching staff (I like that fact in every area other then OL coach...), we have money, we have pick, let's try to be positive :)
I try to be as positive as I can in 2019...I guess it will be relatively easy till September or at least till the draft...

How I see the roster:

QB: Carr is the starter and he can be a pretty good starting QB in year 2 IMO. We obviously need a back up, but honestly I don't really care who that is, since we will go down hard in the minute we loose Carr to an injury anyway. McCarron could stick I guess, but if that 5M is too rich we can always bring in a Peterman to hold the tablet for Carr...

RB: I think we need to tender Richard, since he is a solid weapon. We could bring Martin back on a team friendly deal, however he tends to have horrible seasons after strong ones...If we go after another FA I could accept that too. I would definately want to see what we have in Warren. I don't want to see us going after a big money guy like Bell or Coleman. 

FB: I guess we can live with Smith for another year

TE: I think we need Cook back. I would also keep Smith, Carrier and Waller on roster and yeah I would roll with 4 TE's. Cook is a mismatch and a trusted option for Carr and while he will cost some money, TE is not a too "rich" position and he is over 30, so the sky won't fall after we bring him back. Smith is a solid blocker and locker room guy. Carrier is a solid ST player and offers some value as depth. Waller is an interesting option, who has really nice upside even as Cook's replacement down the line. I would sign Cook for a 2 or 3 year deal with all the quarantees being in the first year and as a roster bonus in the 2nd year. 

WR: I think we need to keep Nelson and Ateman, since they have solid chemistry with Carr. I like Ateman as Nelson's back up next year and his successor in 2020 as an outside possession guy with some big slot ability. I would also bring back D.Harris on a 1 year deal for ST duties. I would bring in some young competition for that ST role. I would like to see a quality FA signing (T.Williams) and a high draft pick (DK maybe) and a late rounder or UDFA for the final/ST role.

OT: Miller and Parker are locks to be back, however I'm not sure Parker is a lock to start. I hope we bring in a guy, who gives him a good fight at least. Sharpe could stick as back up LT IMO.

OG: It will be interesting to see where we go with this position. KO and Gabe can be cut easily, but I can see both of them back with all the cap space we have. Maybe Good made a strong enough impression to be back as a starter instead of one of the rich guys. Even if KO and Gabe are back I would like to bring back Good and possibly even Green. We need quality depth, since both KO and Gabe battled with injuries in '17 and '18.

OC: Hudson is the rock of our OL, we only need a back up behind him. Feliciano could be that guy if he don't get starting offers on the market.

Overall I would like to see us bringing back Cook, Martin, Harris, Good, Green and maybe Fliciano as UFA and tender Richard (RFA) and Ateman (ERFA). I would go after a top WR in FA, who fits our scheme and could gel with Carr. I would bring in a veteran OT for sure and possibly OG(s) too depending on the KO and Gabe situation. In the draft I would go after a WR early, could see a TE pick up if Cook is not back and you can always add OL help if the value is right I guess. 

 

DT: Hurst, Hall and Jelly are keepers IMO. Vanderdoes should get a chance to stick too. Hankins could be back on a solid deal, but it is not vital IMO, especially if we eye some of the DT's in the draft class. 

DE: Key and Calhoun should be back, but we need serious help here. A big ticket FA and an early draft pick is needed IMO. 

OLB: Whitehead and Lee seems like a solid WLB-SLB duo. Morrow could be a valuable depth, rotation guy behind them and we should bring some speed to the outside position via draft. Mid, late rounder developemental, ST guy could be enough IMO. Wilber could stick as an ST guy.

MLB: Cabinda is a fine depth, rotational guy, but I would like to bring in at least a solid veteran in front of him. If we opt to go MLB early in the draft I can dig that too.

CB: Conley should be our #1. Worley should be back on a RFA tender to battle for the #2 spot. I would like to bring in a guy like Dennard to make Worley win the job or slide in as #3. Nelson seems to be a project guy now, so #4 could be good for him. I would like to see one middle rounder to give him competition and maybe a late or UDFA guy if we carry 6.

S: I would like to keep Karl and bring back Harris on a RFA tender. They seemed like solid players down the stretch, they finished with the best PFF scores on our D. I would like to bring in a veteran to give Harris a serious run for a starting gig and then draft a guy in the early-mid rounds too. 

Overall I would bring back Hankins if the price is right as UFA and tender Worley (RFA), Harris (RFA), Cabinda (ERFA) and Calhoun (ERFA). I would go after the top DE's and would also try to land a quality ILB, a solid #2-#3CB and a veteran S with starting potential. DE early is a must in the draft IMO and we could use speed on every level of our defense.

 

K: I think we have our guy in place now.

P: Townsend needs big time competition, I'm not sure if Kiser is enough for that role, but at least it is a start.

 

 

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good breakdown... I also think Lynch could be back on a team friendly one year deal.. he still had juice before he got hurt....Terrance Williams sucks too, he is just tall

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Here is how I see this team. Keeping in mind this team is rebuilding and that should factor in when deciding who to sign.

QB - Carr is good not great. Doubting his ability to be anything more than an Andy Dalton level starter at this point. Still makes some bad decisions and fails to use his feet enough. I'd strongly consider the right trade. 

RB - Richard is a nice piece to keep around. Time to pair with another piece in the draft. Let Martin and Lynch walk.

FB - Cut Smith, he was awful. Anything is an upgrade

WR -Need to find new blood here. Draft 2 new WRs. Sign 1 FA and hope to catch something. Push Ateman down the depth chart or off the team, he's too slow

TE - Let Cook walk (age and salary). Draft TE in a loaded class

Oline - See if you can trade Jackson or Osemele for good value. Sign vet RT in case Parker struggles in year 2

Dline - Draft edge rush prospect. Sign FA who can apply pressure to the rotation. Hankins/Jelly are the same player... cut Jelly who looks like the inferior one

LBs - Scrap them all. They are all depth players. Draft speed and coverage

CB - Re-sign Worley, good #2. Draft and add 1 FA

S - Try a splash signing like Collins or Joyner. Draft Nasir Adderly in round 1

Need more speed at the skills and on defense. Need to rebuild through the draft an get 1 impact vet at either safety or edge. 

 

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I checked who will have an early roster bonus, who has early guarantee triggers in his contract and who makes "too much" money on our roster.

Donald Penn has the heighest roster bonus for 2019 on the team with 3M. The unfortunate thing about it is 2,75M is already guaranteed because of his summer reconstruction. He could earn 7,6M as total and more then the 3rd of it is already his. With this in mind they might let him be around OTA's and even in TC to see where he is at health wise and how can he adopt to the right side. He might be the veteran RT, who can take Parker's lunch money in 2019. Then again with his back to back IR seasons and the way he looked at RT in September we might just write off that 2,75 and let him retire. We will see what happens. 

Gabe Jackson's total 6,75M deal will be guaranteed on the 15th of March, so that is a hard deadline.

Jordy Nelson got his 2019 roster bonus in 2018 and because of that only 1,8M is hitting his 2019 cap number, so he is about to cost 5,4M. On the 15th of March his 2019 salary will become guaranteed, so after that point he will be a fixture on the roster. 

Justin Ellis has a 2,25M roster bonus on the 17th of March. After that date he would be a fixture too IMO with his total 4,75M deal. Hankins could be a reason to say good bye to Ellis before March. I think these two guys are pretty similar, so we are good with one of them, however with all the money we have, we might keep both of them to have a strong NT rotation.

A.J. McCarron is also due to a roster bonus on the 17th of March (1,9M) and also 1,1M from his base salary will turn to guaranteed on that day. With that I think we can say that he will be the back up if he is on roster by 18th of March.

Tahir Whitehead also got his 2019 roster bonus in 2018, which means that 3,325 prorates over 2018-19-20 like a signing bonus would. With this move his 2019 cap number is down to 4,15M, while he has a 2,2M dead money for '19. This means to me that he will stay as our WLB for at least one more year. If you combine that lowered cap number with his second half (of the season) play, we might have a solid option in him.

Kelechi Osemele and his 10,2M cap number is worth at least a mention here, especially since he has no dead money left on his deal, so we can easily move on if we want or we can try to force him into a reconstruction for some guarantees. I can totally see scenario where Gabe is moved back to LG and Good or a veteran FA takes over at RG. We will see how much of a factor were his injuries or at least how Gruden and Co. sees that anyway...

Seth Roberts had a few nice moments and some silly drops again. He is who he is I guess. To me his 4,65M price tag is too high even on a team with loads of cap space. He needs to reconstract, sign a totally new deal or leave IMO. 

 

After they decide the fates of these guys Gruden and MM can turn to our own FA's.
UFA: Rashaan Melvin, Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch, Marcus Gilchrist, Reggie Nelson, Johnathan Hankins, Clinton McDonald, Martavius Bryant, Brandon LaFell, Doug Martin, Frostee Rucker, Mike Nugent, Athyba Rubin, Leon Hall, Dwayne Harris, Bene Benwikere, Kony Ealy, Jacquies Smith, Chaz Green, T.J.Clemmings, Jon Feliciano, Dexter McDonald, Denzell Green
RFA: Jalen Richard, Erik Harris, Daryl Worley
ERFA: Shilique Calhoun, Trent Sieg, Tevin Mitchell, Jason Cabinda, Daniel Carlson, Marcell Ateman, Justin Murray

 

Cook, Hankins, Martin, Good, Harris, Melvin, Feliciano and Green are guys who I would consider bringing back. Neither is a must, but we could use them. 

I would bring back all the RFAs and ERFAs for sure.

 

 

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Cut Penn. Keep Jackson, Jordy and Jelly. McCarron is a fine backup. Trade KO or restructure or . He's on the decline based on the last 2 years. If he won't restructure, just keep him... he still solid and you have the cap space. Roberts, trade or cut. Time to upgrade the position

1 hour ago, Rolni said:

UFA: Rashaan Melvin, Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch, Marcus Gilchrist, Reggie Nelson, Johnathan Hankins, Clinton McDonald, Martavius Bryant, Brandon LaFell, Doug Martin, Frostee Rucker, Mike Nugent, Athyba Rubin, Leon Hall, Dwayne Harris, Bene Benwikere, Kony Ealy, Jacquies Smith, Chaz Green, T.J.Clemmings, Jon Feliciano, Dexter McDonald, Denzell Green

Harris the only must sign. Good ST player and leader. Martin vet minimum, I'd bring him back. Cook, only if the price is right. Hankins, only if you cut Jelly. The rest.... kick rocks

1 hour ago, Rolni said:

RFA: Jalen Richard, Erik Harris, Daryl Worley

All solid role players. Tag them and move on.

1 hour ago, Rolni said:

ERFA: Shilique Calhoun, Trent Sieg, Tevin Mitchell, Jason Cabinda, Daniel Carlson, Marcell Ateman, Justin Murray

Bring them back for camp.

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2 hours ago, Rolni said:

I checked who will have an early roster bonus, who has early guarantee triggers in his contract and who makes "too much" money on our roster.

Donald Penn has the heighest roster bonus for 2019 on the team with 3M. The unfortunate thing about it is 2,75M is already guaranteed because of his summer reconstruction. He could earn 7,6M as total and more then the 3rd of it is already his. With this in mind they might let him be around OTA's and even in TC to see where he is at health wise and how can he adopt to the right side. He might be the veteran RT, who can take Parker's lunch money in 2019. Then again with his back to back IR seasons and the way he looked at RT in September we might just write off that 2,75 and let him retire. We will see what happens. 

Gabe Jackson's total 6,75M deal will be guaranteed on the 15th of March, so that is a hard deadline.

Jordy Nelson got his 2019 roster bonus in 2018 and because of that only 1,8M is hitting his 2019 cap number, so he is about to cost 5,4M. On the 15th of March his 2019 salary will become guaranteed, so after that point he will be a fixture on the roster. 

Justin Ellis has a 2,25M roster bonus on the 17th of March. After that date he would be a fixture too IMO with his total 4,75M deal. Hankins could be a reason to say good bye to Ellis before March. I think these two guys are pretty similar, so we are good with one of them, however with all the money we have, we might keep both of them to have a strong NT rotation.

A.J. McCarron is also due to a roster bonus on the 17th of March (1,9M) and also 1,1M from his base salary will turn to guaranteed on that day. With that I think we can say that he will be the back up if he is on roster by 18th of March.

Tahir Whitehead also got his 2019 roster bonus in 2018, which means that 3,325 prorates over 2018-19-20 like a signing bonus would. With this move his 2019 cap number is down to 4,15M, while he has a 2,2M dead money for '19. This means to me that he will stay as our WLB for at least one more year. If you combine that lowered cap number with his second half (of the season) play, we might have a solid option in him.

Kelechi Osemele and his 10,2M cap number is worth at least a mention here, especially since he has no dead money left on his deal, so we can easily move on if we want or we can try to force him into a reconstruction for some guarantees. I can totally see scenario where Gabe is moved back to LG and Good or a veteran FA takes over at RG. We will see how much of a factor were his injuries or at least how Gruden and Co. sees that anyway...

Seth Roberts had a few nice moments and some silly drops again. He is who he is I guess. To me his 4,65M price tag is too high even on a team with loads of cap space. He needs to reconstract, sign a totally new deal or leave IMO. 

 

After they decide the fates of these guys Gruden and MM can turn to our own FA's.
UFA: Rashaan Melvin, Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch, Marcus Gilchrist, Reggie Nelson, Johnathan Hankins, Clinton McDonald, Martavius Bryant, Brandon LaFell, Doug Martin, Frostee Rucker, Mike Nugent, Athyba Rubin, Leon Hall, Dwayne Harris, Bene Benwikere, Kony Ealy, Jacquies Smith, Chaz Green, T.J.Clemmings, Jon Feliciano, Dexter McDonald, Denzell Green
RFA: Jalen Richard, Erik Harris, Daryl Worley
ERFA: Shilique Calhoun, Trent Sieg, Tevin Mitchell, Jason Cabinda, Daniel Carlson, Marcell Ateman, Justin Murray

 

Cook, Hankins, Martin, Good, Harris, Melvin, Feliciano and Green are guys who I would consider bringing back. Neither is a must, but we could use them. 

I would bring back all the RFAs and ERFAs for sure.

 

 

I would sign Ealy, Clemmings, Rucker, Bryant to minimum contracts if they accepted, at least they bring competition to camp... they proved they could play in the league could be depth 

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Is this guy actually legit, or just trying to gain followers lol?

Please let it be that the Raiders cut their Cable. 

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10 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Is this guy actually legit, or just trying to gain followers lol?

Please let it be that the Raiders cut their Cable. 

Never heard of the guy

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Pretty sure there is a deal in place for the Raiders to play somewhere.  I would have guessed So Cal but this guy is in the Vegas area now so probably Vegas.  I am still hoping he is hinting at Cable getting canned.

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On 1/3/2019 at 11:31 AM, big_palooka said:

Here is how I see this team. Keeping in mind this team is rebuilding and that should factor in when deciding who to sign.

QB - Carr is good not great. Doubting his ability to be anything more than an Andy Dalton level starter at this point. Still makes some bad decisions and fails to use his feet enough. I'd strongly consider the right trade. 

RB - Richard is a nice piece to keep around. Time to pair with another piece in the draft. Let Martin and Lynch walk.

FB - Cut Smith, he was awful. Anything is an upgrade

WR -Need to find new blood here. Draft 2 new WRs. Sign 1 FA and hope to catch something. Push Ateman down the depth chart or off the team, he's too slow

TE - Let Cook walk (age and salary). Draft TE in a loaded class

Oline - See if you can trade Jackson or Osemele for good value. Sign vet RT in case Parker struggles in year 2

Dline - Draft edge rush prospect. Sign FA who can apply pressure to the rotation. Hankins/Jelly are the same player... cut Jelly who looks like the inferior one

LBs - Scrap them all. They are all depth players. Draft speed and coverage

CB - Re-sign Worley, good #2. Draft and add 1 FA

S - Try a splash signing like Collins or Joyner. Draft Nasir Adderly in round 1

Need more speed at the skills and on defense. Need to rebuild through the draft an get 1 impact vet at either safety or edge. 

 

I agree almost 100% with this. I have a higher opinion of Carr but I would consider if the trade was too good not to. Full rebuild if so.

Draft 2 WR's, TE, RB especially if we trade down. If Carr's traded then I want to stockpile picks/players til QB is found. Agree with Oline and could see Jackson back at LG as mentioned in another post. DL/LB/CB 100% On saftey I had to look up Nasir Adderly. I'd say 3rd round pick but the little searching I did he's being talked in the 1st so good early call on someone who will probably rise leading into the draft.

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2 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

New Dline coach? Did they fire Trgovac

Thats what I wondered to myself. Hopefully he can aid our DL. I don't think the coaching was that bad but I guess I'm not an expert. All of the rooks need to get NFL bodies but sometimes Hurst and Hall flashed nice things like hand usage. Hurst especially. 

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1 hour ago, Silver&Black88 said:

Thats what I wondered to myself. Hopefully he can aid our DL. I don't think the coaching was that bad but I guess I'm not an expert. All of the rooks need to get NFL bodies but sometimes Hurst and Hall flashed nice things like hand usage. Hurst especially. 

Well regarded by Tampa fans. Someone they wanted to stay if that matters.

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On 11/01/2019 at 1:36 PM, Rolni said:

I checked who will have an early roster bonus, who has early guarantee triggers in his contract and who makes "too much" money on our roster.

Donald Penn has the heighest roster bonus for 2019 on the team with 3M. The unfortunate thing about it is 2,75M is already guaranteed because of his summer reconstruction. He could earn 7,6M as total and more then the 3rd of it is already his. With this in mind they might let him be around OTA's and even in TC to see where he is at health wise and how can he adopt to the right side. He might be the veteran RT, who can take Parker's lunch money in 2019. Then again with his back to back IR seasons and the way he looked at RT in September we might just write off that 2,75 and let him retire. We will see what happens. 

Gabe Jackson's total 6,75M deal will be guaranteed on the 15th of March, so that is a hard deadline.

Jordy Nelson got his 2019 roster bonus in 2018 and because of that only 1,8M is hitting his 2019 cap number, so he is about to cost 5,4M. On the 15th of March his 2019 salary will become guaranteed, so after that point he will be a fixture on the roster. 

Justin Ellis has a 2,25M roster bonus on the 17th of March. After that date he would be a fixture too IMO with his total 4,75M deal. Hankins could be a reason to say good bye to Ellis before March. I think these two guys are pretty similar, so we are good with one of them, however with all the money we have, we might keep both of them to have a strong NT rotation.

A.J. McCarron is also due to a roster bonus on the 17th of March (1,9M) and also 1,1M from his base salary will turn to guaranteed on that day. With that I think we can say that he will be the back up if he is on roster by 18th of March.

Tahir Whitehead also got his 2019 roster bonus in 2018, which means that 3,325 prorates over 2018-19-20 like a signing bonus would. With this move his 2019 cap number is down to 4,15M, while he has a 2,2M dead money for '19. This means to me that he will stay as our WLB for at least one more year. If you combine that lowered cap number with his second half (of the season) play, we might have a solid option in him.

Kelechi Osemele and his 10,2M cap number is worth at least a mention here, especially since he has no dead money left on his deal, so we can easily move on if we want or we can try to force him into a reconstruction for some guarantees. I can totally see scenario where Gabe is moved back to LG and Good or a veteran FA takes over at RG. We will see how much of a factor were his injuries or at least how Gruden and Co. sees that anyway...

Seth Roberts had a few nice moments and some silly drops again. He is who he is I guess. To me his 4,65M price tag is too high even on a team with loads of cap space. He needs to reconstract, sign a totally new deal or leave IMO. 

 

After they decide the fates of these guys Gruden and MM can turn to our own FA's.
UFA: Rashaan Melvin, Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch, Marcus Gilchrist, Reggie Nelson, Johnathan Hankins, Clinton McDonald, Martavius Bryant, Brandon LaFell, Doug Martin, Frostee Rucker, Mike Nugent, Athyba Rubin, Leon Hall, Dwayne Harris, Bene Benwikere, Kony Ealy, Jacquies Smith, Chaz Green, T.J.Clemmings, Jon Feliciano, Dexter McDonald, Denzell Green
RFA: Jalen Richard, Erik Harris, Daryl Worley
ERFA: Shilique Calhoun, Trent Sieg, Tevin Mitchell, Jason Cabinda, Daniel Carlson, Marcell Ateman, Justin Murray

 

Cook, Hankins, Martin, Good, Harris, Melvin, Feliciano and Green are guys who I would consider bringing back. Neither is a must, but we could use them. 

I would bring back all the RFAs and ERFAs for sure.

 

 

Thanks for putting all those numbers in black and white for us Rolni.................very useful for our predictions moving forward!

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