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Draft Prospects 2019

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lets not talk of drafting any dbs in the first round or two please.

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On 10/18/2018 at 4:36 PM, muncher said:

lets not talk of drafting any dbs in the first round or two please.

That's all well and good, but where, pray tell, do you suggest we get our, DBs from?  It's not like our track record via FA is much better (Haden may be our best CB, but at this stage in his career, and his results, that's not necessarily a good thing...then we have such great viable assets such as Morgan Burnett--shocker--he's injured...then there was the great Mitchell...the list goes on and on).

It's not the players we are drafting; it's the positional coach--it's obvious he's just not getting the job done, just like Lake didn't.  We need to score a 'homerun' in hiring our next 'Munchak'.

But also, we need to stop taking 3rd Rd talents in the 1st and 2nd Rds -- Edmunds, Burns, Davis, Golson -- We are placing ourselves in a disadvantageous position to begin with. I mean, look at this list...

http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/players.php?genpos=SS&draftyear=2018&sortorder=tsxpos&order=ASC

Do you see something wrong with it??  I do...how the he!! do we select a guy who is 3rd on this list in the 1st round, and the very next prospect...4th on the list, we select in the 5th Rd.

These decisions are haunting us, and are killing our chances to be dominant. It's seems 1 out of every 2 years, we make a monumental reach in the 1st Rd, since 2013...JJ, Burns, Edmunds, who are offset by those who were actually selected where they should have been (or lower, in Dupree's, case, and that hasn;t really worked in our favor, either)--Dupree, Watt, Shazier (and actually, Shazier was about a 5-7 selection reach, if I remember right, but not a big deal).  The point is--Shazier is out indefinitely and Dupree is slow to develop, leaving us Watt.  That's 2 out of 6 1st Rd selections that are no longer on our roster, technically speaking, leaving us with the aptly named 'Burns', a slowly developing Dupree, a relative 'Stud', yet jeckyl-n-hyde-esque player in Watt, and a seemingly similar situation with Edmunds, though it's hard to tell after just 5 games played.

So, all this to say, basically, that i have no issue selecting a DB in the 1st...assuming, however, that this DB is supposed to be there.  I mean...it's a good thing we didn't take Jessie Bates III  with his 42 tkls and 2 INTs, or find a way to move up to take Derwin James and his 36 tkls, 3.5 sacks, and an INT...or even (though now IR'd) Mike Hughes, over Edmunds, then take Edmunds in the 2nd...or 3rd where he belonged...but, but, but, then another team might have taken him (I love that argument)...well, too darn bad, but then, at least, we'd likely have an actual 1st Rd talent selected, you know, in the 1st Rd.

And though I bring up stats, etc. so far...really, none of that really matters; the draft is about understanding the 'value' of a player, and where he 'should' be selected.  Those prospects that are UDFA, or maybe even Priority UDFA-valued players, taken, say, in the 3rd Rd by a team, because their scouts are smarter, and the GM just scored a 'coup' by getting that guy...sorry, but those GMs are idiots. Those are the guys you take a chance on in the 6th/7th Rd, and if they are gone??  Oh well, move to the next on your list; I'm sorry, but of that prospect was a true 'game-changer', he would have found his way into the Draftnik's/Media's radar somehow, thus considered a 3rd/4th Rd value. In this day and age, there just are not very many who slip through the cracks...

So...again, back to my point.  If we pick a DB in the 1st, I'm perfectly fine with that, so long as that DB was a 1st Rd prospect; this little "I'm smarter than everyone else" act that Colbert/Tomlin are playing over the past drafts has cost us dearly, IMO. Couple that with crappy DB coaches, and you get what we have.  We may very well just need to 'pay' for the star DB through FA or Trade; I would say Bell could be our answer, but he's tanked his value so much with his little stunts, even he is not likely to bring back much if there was someway that we would be able to trade his butt.

Sorry for the 'War and Peace' response, all ; just felt I needed to say my piece on our drafting woes, of late, which will surely manifest itself again, this next draft, until these yay-hoos pull their collective heads out of their behinds, and go back to the 'tried and true' way of drafting that other successful GMs use.

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Its not about not drafting first round DBs, OLBs, etc. Its about doing a better job selecting the RIGHT players at those positions.

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2 hours ago, wwhickok said:

Its not about not drafting first round DBs, OLBs, etc. Its about doing a better job selecting the RIGHT players at those positions.

That's true, but we found the RIGHT player at his position, I believe, in Marcus Allen, but let's face it, he's got some development that needs to happen. The problem is, so does Terrell Edmunds...and Artie Burns.  But since they were drafted in the 1st Rd, they are expected to get playing time, right away. And we are seeing what happens when you push someone who isn;t ready; they were projected 3rd Rd players for a reason; they were not projected to be able to come in and start right away and be successful, because if they were, then they would likely have been projected as 1st Rd players.

I'm oversimplifying, as you are, but the point I am making is, if we do select a DB, or OLB, in the 1st, they have to be, as you said, the RIGHT player, for us, but also, be ready to come in and play. If the player is deemed to be the right player for us, but is projected a 3rd, or 4th, Round player, then for goodness sake...WAIT until the 3rd or 4th round to select them, and get someone else, who IS a 1st Round player, and RIGHT for our team, at a different position, instead of forcing the situation, as they have done with Burns and Edmunds.

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On 2018-10-18 at 4:36 PM, muncher said:

lets not talk of drafting any dbs in the first round or two please.

why not? I don't remember us adding a player through a trade and I doubt they will spend on a legit DB. If you are referring to the ability to draft in RD1 for CB based on how burns has been, I understand.

 

Edited by 3rivers

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34 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said:

But since they were drafted in the 1st Rd, they are expected to get playing time, right away. And we are seeing what happens when you push someone who isn;t ready; they were projected 3rd Rd players for a reason; they were not projected to be able to come in and start right away and be successful, because if they were, then they would likely have been projected as 1st Rd players.

The FO (colbert and draft scouts or whoever) really made mistakes in recent years . That has to stop, but if it continues, it could really keep this D as it is for years. A better pass rush will help against some teams, but not vs Brady or others that will pass quickly. Half of the content on this forum for us is about the bad drafting in some way .  They have hit on offence but had failures on D , so just get used to it is all I can think about that unit there are changes.  For some reason Artie  was starting and almost cost us the game vs the bungles. Ben saved artie could have been a thread

The FO can't get great RD 1 picked every year, so it is up to the coach to decide he has had enough of a player and move on.  Like others, I see Burns as a player that falls into this category, and he should be on the sidelines watching or just gone off the team.  To bring Adeyini back, they will have to make roman the roster , and like the giants, they should let their RD1 pick from the U go and move on. Adeyini will help the team more than Burns thats for sure because just getting burns off the field helps the team, and i am not referring to playing with 10 defenders either.

Edited by 3rivers

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6 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

The FO (colbert and draft scouts or whoever) really made mistakes in recent years . That has to stop, but if it continues, it could really keep this D as it is for years. A better pass rush will help against some teams, but not vs Brady or others that will pass quickly. Half of the content on this forum for us is about the bad drafting in some way .  They have hit on offence but had failures on D , so just get used to it is all I can think about that unit there are changes.  For some reason Artie  was starting and almost cost us the game vs the bungles. Ben saved artie could have been a thread

The FO can't get great RD 1 picked every year, so it is up to the coach to decide he has had enough of a player and move on.  Like others, I see Burns as a player that falls into this category, and he should be on the sidelines watching or just gone off the team.  To bring Adeyini back, they will have to make roman the roster , and like the giants, they should let their RD1 pick from the U go and move on. Adeyini will help the team more than Burns thats for sure because just getting burns off the field helps the team, and i am not referring to playing with 10 defenders either.

I completely agree...and you are REALLY hampering your odds when you start 'Reaching' ,2 full rounds for prospects you fall in love with, for some reason. Either trade down, or pick someone else; don't waste a valuable resource...a 1st Rd pick...just to satisfy some weird 'man-crush' you have.  Let other dumb GMs do that; there are plenty that think they are smarter than the 'average bear'...and then...what...the truth is eventually revealed. Let's start with 2012...for shins and griggles...to me, these ere the biggest WTF picks in the 1st Rd...or at least, a top 3

2012 - Bruce Irvin - 15th overall, when he was, at best, a 2nd Rd talent.  He's still playing, so good for him, but he played his first contract, and then what?  Gone from his drafting team. Why?  Because, well, he has played on the level of a, yep, 2nd-3rd Rd player.

2013 - Jarvis Jones - 17th overall - Was a top 10 prospect, til he ran like a UDFA prospect, then instantly dropped to 2nd Rd consideration.  But Nope, Colbert/Tomlin are smarter...ugh

2014 - Johnny Manziel - 22nd overall - another, inital top prospect, until the process played out...then he just...kept..sliding. Everyone knew he was gonna flake...except that bum Cleveland, LOL!

2015 - Pick one--Cameron Erving, Arik Armstead, Phillip Dorsett--they are either gone fromt he original team, or very lackluster players...or both...

2016 - Artie Burns...moving on...

I'll stop there, because we have no idea how the 2017/2018 drafted players will perform.  Point is?  GMs are NOT smarter than 50-100 other draftniks/scouts, etc. If the majority of them have a prospect as a 3rd Rd pick...there's usually, a good reason.  Stop trying to fit a Square Peg into a Round hole, Colbert/Tomlin--It hasn't worked, if you haven't noticed, by now...

Go back to sitting patiently and taking what comes to you...DD, Cameron Heyward, etc. THOSE are the smart picks.  Not the "wait 'til they see this pick!!" selections. THEY-DON'T-WORK!!!

 

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1 hour ago, Ward4HOF said:

I

I'll stop there, because we have no idea how the 2017/2018 drafted players will perform.  Point is?  GMs are NOT smarter than 50-100 other draftniks/scouts, etc. If the majority of them have a prospect as a 3rd Rd pick...there's usually, a good reason.  Stop trying to fit a Square Peg into a Round hole, Colbert/Tomlin--It hasn't worked, if you haven't noticed, by now...

Go back to sitting patiently and taking what comes to you...DD, Cameron Heyward, etc. THOSE are the smart picks.  Not the "wait 'til they see this pick!!" selections. THEY-DON'T-WORK!!!

 

GM's have a lot more information than draftniks. They see the interviews that we do not.   What no one sees are what is in the player's head.  Why AB is so good is because he is driven.  Why does JuJu succeed and Sweed fail?  JuJu was rated as a 2-3 and Sweed was a 1. Smith-Schuster was worst in all the combine measurements compared to Sweed. Only Cooper Kupp is even close to JuJu in how well he is doing for the 2017 WR. Justin Hunter was rated as a 1-2.  How does that look?

Draftniks are often so very very wrong.  Many do not realize that rating a player is not the same as drafting.   For every Dee Milliner there is a Micah Hyde.

Remember that for a draftnik there is no consequence for getting it wrong.  No one remembers that someone hated Darius Slay and roasted the Lions for taking him in the 2nd round.   Judging a rookie after 6 games is stupid.  Polamalu was considered a bust after his 1st year.

Edited by jebrick

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several long responses. 

tomlin should not be allowed to have any say when it comes to dbs.

his 'expertise' in the secondary is a real head scratcher.

there is no way you can say these arent tomlins picks

we cant blame the position coach for the 3rd round athletes that tomlin is selecting in the first couple rounds

 

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4 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

Go back to sitting patiently and taking what comes to you...DD, Cameron Heyward, etc. THOSE are the smart picks.  Not the "wait 'til they see this pick!!" selections. THEY-DON'T-WORK!!!

And if a great talent doesn't land at your draft spot, then trade down and get another pick for later since there is value there usually. 

here is a link on how they go about the draft, it appears everyone has input and then colbert has the most input

 

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Found our 2019 1sr round pick. This guy has it all. Long arms. Trash talking. Odd displays of success despite not doing anything. 

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, jebrick said:

GM's have a lot more information than draftniks. They see the interviews that we do not.   What no one sees are what is in the player's head.  Why AB is so good is because he is driven.  Why does JuJu succeed and Sweed fail?  JuJu was rated as a 2-3 and Sweed was a 1. Smith-Schuster was worst in all the combine measurements compared to Sweed. Only Cooper Kupp is even close to JuJu in how well he is doing for the 2017 WR. Justin Hunter was rated as a 1-2.  How does that look?

Draftniks are often so very very wrong.  Many do not realize that rating a player is not the same as drafting.   For every Dee Milliner there is a Micah Hyde.

Remember that for a draftnik there is no consequence for getting it wrong.  No one remembers that someone hated Darius Slay and roasted the Lions for taking him in the 2nd round.   Judging a rookie after 6 games is stupid.  Polamalu was considered a bust after his 1st year.

You are very right...in some cases...but everything you are pointing to are COLLECTIVE failures--Draftniks, GMs, Media, Fans alike...

I'm talking about when there is a consensus regarding a player...Draftniks, fans, Media, and 30 other GMs...I should have made myself clear.  Nobody was picking Burns before the mid-2nd, and that's fine; he's probably a little better than a 3rd Rd pick, but it's clear that he's not, and never was, worthy of a 1st Rd pick.  That is what I am talking about here...when there is a consensus of everyone outside of the NFL...AND NFL GMs/Scout personnel. 

I don't remember it being the case this time around, but I love it when a team makes a massive reach for a prospect, then another GM somewhere says 'it's a good thing they took him, because we were going to take him 10 picks later," or something to that effect...that's why I said 30 GMs, not 31...because often, there are two GMs that become bamboozled over a prospect that they shouldn't.

And yes, they miss on players all the time...players that are better than their draft position indicates, but usually, it's because there's a combination of aspects/forces that come together...that 'perfect storm'...where a player puts in the hard work, an opportunity presents itself due to injury, etc., and a magical play / game happens for this player, and the rest is history. that's not what I am talking about here; I'm talking about clear, definitive evidence that a prospect has no place being drafted in the 1st Rd, but because Mr. GM thinks he's smarter than 30 other GMs, or gets wind that ONE other GM is interested in the same prospect, they pull the trigger...or, they are dead-set on taking a certain position, be-darned of who is left when they are on the clock, and even though all the 1st Rd prospects have been picked, and in some cases, a marginal 1st/2nd Rd player at that position is selected, and the next man up is a clear 3rd Rd prospect, and they take them anyway.

Sorry, but your argument is not directly correlated to my point. And I was not clear by not adding in the other 30 teams GM/Scout personnel--I figured that was a given.  But I'm talking consensus both in-and-out of the NFL...when a GM thinks he's smarter than all the other GMs AND media/draftniks/fans. You want to take that chance in the 3rd? 4th?  It's still dumb, but at least you haven't wasted a 1st Rd pick.

So, tell me I am wrong that Colbert/Tomlin made poor decisions in 'reaching' for JJ, Burns, and Edmunds--because if you HONESTLY believe that they 'chose wisely' with those picks...and I'm not talking about Hindsight is 20/20 after knowing what we know now...I'm talking about when they were selected. Tell me you believe that they did not 'reach' with those three picks...and massively, by 1-2 full rounds, on two of them...JJ was probably worth a gamble in the early 2nd. If you honestly believe that those two were not massive reaches, then there is no point in attempting to further my side of the debate with you, because we believe 2 separate things happened on those 2 days...and again, 3 if you count JJ.  I thought JJ was a good pick, so there were enough people out there that still believed that Jarvis was worthy of a 1st, but there were more...likely greater than 50%...who felt the Steelers reached on that pick.

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Tell me who you would have reached for other than Burns?  No one accepts your calls. Your pick.  Emmanuel Ogbah?  He does not even start.  Robert Nkemdiche?   Who did you have?

Sometimes the draft does not fall your way and sometimes it does.  How about for Edmunds?  Do you take Derrius Guice?  He was the conscious board pick?  He went in the late 2nd round.  Is he a 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick?  Right now he is not playing.  I liked Jessie Bates but the Steelers moved Davis to FS and signed a SS FA.  Bates was taken in the 2nd round.  

For me, the draft tells us how we will grade the pick for the rest of their NFL careers.  Edmunds will always be graded as a 1st round pick.  AB is a 6th round pick. If the Steelers traded back to pick 33, all the draftniks would be happier?  Is Burns playing like a 1st round pick?  No.  Is JuJu playing like a 2nd round pick?  No.  Is Conner playing like a 3rd round pick?  No.  But what do we expect form a pick in the N round?  Should all 2nd round WR play like Smith-Schuster or like Cordarrelle Patterson ( who many loved)?  Do you often judge rookies 6 games into the season and call them success or busts? 

The conscious is often wrong.   Read a book called Future Babble.  It is all about the why our brains want certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.  Every year, people flock to the draft picks that the group picks that the "experts" say.  99% of the time, the experts, are not looking at the team or any moves the team might make.  Does that mean the GMs are always right?  Hell no.  But enough bad picks and they get fired.  Draftniks can keep making bad picks year after year.

 

 

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3 hours ago, jebrick said:

Tell me who you would have reached for other than Burns?  No one accepts your calls. Your pick.  Emmanuel Ogbah?  He does not even start.  Robert Nkemdiche?   Who did you have?

Alright I'm jumping in here because you are asking layups IMO.  I would have easily taken Jaylon Smith or Myles Jack.  I was pounding the table for both of them at our pick before we massively reached.  I didn't care about the injuries.  We had just lost Timmons and had no plan at ILB.  I would have rather had to wait on one of them get healthy than for picking a late 2nd player in the 1st.

Quote

Sometimes the draft does not fall your way and sometimes it does.  How about for Edmunds?  Do you take Derrius Guice?  He was the conscious board pick?  He went in the late 2nd round.  Is he a 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick?  Right now he is not playing.  I liked Jessie Bates but the Steelers moved Davis to FS and signed a SS FA.  Bates was taken in the 2nd round.  

Guice tore his ACL in the preseason, so a bit unfair on that one.  He's not sitting because of skill.  I wanted Mike Hughes, Nick Chubb, or Sony Michel at that point.  All of those are looking good (aside from Hughes ACL tear).  

 

Also tired of the 'no one was calling' or 'no one is taking your call'.  There's always someone looking to move.

 

Quote

For me, the draft tells us how we will grade the pick for the rest of their NFL careers.  Edmunds will always be graded as a 1st round pick.  AB is a 6th round pick. If the Steelers traded back to pick 33, all the draftniks would be happier?  Is Burns playing like a 1st round pick?  No.  Is JuJu playing like a 2nd round pick?  No.  Is Conner playing like a 3rd round pick?  No.  But what do we expect form a pick in the N round?  Should all 2nd round WR play like Smith-Schuster or like Cordarrelle Patterson ( who many loved)?  Do you often judge rookies 6 games into the season and call them success or busts? 

The conscious is often wrong.   Read a book called Future Babble.  It is all about the why our brains want certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.  Every year, people flock to the draft picks that the group picks that the "experts" say.  99% of the time, the experts, are not looking at the team or any moves the team might make.  Does that mean the GMs are always right?  Hell no.  But enough bad picks and they get fired.  Draftniks can keep making bad picks year after year.

I'm not a fan of judging players based on what round they are picked in.  Judge them based on how they develop.  

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3 hours ago, jebrick said:

Tell me who you would have reached for other than Burns?  No one accepts your calls. Your pick.  Emmanuel Ogbah?  He does not even start.  Robert Nkemdiche?   Who did you have?

 

I would have traded up to get William Jackson or selected Henry Hunter or Deion Jones both of who are stars in the NFL and  have lived up to their hype.  Yes both of those guys were 2nd round picks but Deion Jones was a surprising slide.  

Artie Burns, no matter how you slice it was not a good 1st round pick.  He was a "raw prospect with speed that needs a lot of development". That is not the definition of a first round pick.

In the 2nd round in that draft they picked another bust, Sean Davis. Kevin Byard, who isn't a world beater but a greatly more impressive player went just a few picks later.

When you look at the 2016 draft all together, it's pretty underwhelming.  It's one of, but not the, worst draft classes Colbert has achieved.

Edited by wwhickok

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