Bye Week Look at the Future

[WindyCity]

2019 Cap Space: 16.2
2018 Roll Over: 4 

Total Starting cap Space: 20.2

-The Bears currently have 16.2 million in cap space based on a 190 million dollar cap and they are on pace to roll over 4 million from this season barring serious injuries and guys being signed off the street. That gives them a little over 20 million in cap space. If your brain is saying "that is not a lot" you are correct, but it also is not a ridiculously low number. There are 6 teams with less cap space and another 4 that are within a couple of million numbers. 

-This is obviously not a lot to go wild with so expecting everyone re-signed or any type of splashes in free agency would be a mistake.

[WindyCity]

Cuts 

Dion Sims [6]
Sam Acho [2.5]
Bradley Sowell [1.5]

Cap Space: 30.2

These 3 cuts seem pretty obvious when you combine their play, health, and the money that would be saved by releasing them. Acho has pretty much become a full time special teamer before getting injured and Dion Sims has always been a waste of money.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/chicago-bears

[WindyCity]

Restructure [+7 million]

WR Allen Robinson 15 million/4 guaranteed [15]
-6 million base salary turned into signing bonus [12]

DE Akiem Hicks 10.5 million/4.5 guaranteed [10]
-6 million base salary turned into signing bonus [6.5]

Cap Space: 37.2

-The Bears can clear some money for the 2019 cap by moving it into 2020, when they have 50 million in space, and guaranteeing more money to 2 players that are almost out of guaranteed cash after the 2018 season. Robinson only has 4 million in guaranteed money left and the Bears can easily cut him a check and spread it over the next 2 years. Not a great practice to get into, but one they should consider just to bridge till 2020.

[WindyCity]

Here is the biggest challenge: The Bears only have 37 players under contract in 2019.

Re-signings [22.85 million]

CB Bryce Callahan 3 years 18 million/7 guaranteed [4]
OLB Aaron Lynch 3 years 16 million/7.5 guaranteed [5]
RB Benny Cunnigham 2 years 3 million/1 guaranteed [1]
OG Eric Kush 2 years 2.8 million/800k guaranteed [.8]
LS Patrick Scales 1 year 750k/250k guaranteed [.75]
P Pat O'Donnell 2 years 4.5 million/1.5 guareanteed [1.5]
WR Josh Bellamy 2 years 2.2 million/700k guaranteed [.7]
FB Michael Burton 1 year 1.1 million/100k guaranteed [1.1]
TE Daniel Brown 1 year 1.1 million/250k guaranteed

RFA/ERFA Tendered [6.9 million]


RRH [2.9, 2nd round]
Deandre Houston-Carson [1.9 Original Round]
Ben Braunacker [700k]
Rashaad Coward [700k]
Isiah Irving [700k]


-Thank goodness a guy like RRH is a RFA and the Bears can keep him for 2.9 million dollars and get through to 2020.

-I think keeping Amos is unlikely. If he commands even what the average starting safeties have gotten over the last couple of seasons [7-8 million/year] that leaves the Bears in a tough spot unless they backload the hell out of it. I also think they should save their safety dollars for Eddie Jackson who is a better player.

-I would like to find a way to keep Aaron Lynch. The rotational pass rushers got 5 million/season last year and I would hope that we could close him for that.

-Bryce Callahan to me is a priority over Amos in my world based on price and his position.

2019 Bears Free Agents: https://overthecap.com/free-agency/chicago-bears/

[WindyCity]

Free Agency [6 million]

S Marcus Gilchrist [Oakland] 1 year 3.5 million/1.5 guaranteed [3.5]

I am pretty sure that Amos is gone after the season and the Bears do not need to invest big money in the SS spot as Jackson is eligible for a contract extension after the 2019 season. The Bears need an experienced vet that can come in and cover them in case Deon Bush, who has looked way better, or a draft pick are not ready to be the starting safety. Gilchrist has a ton of starts to his name and has played in 3-4 attacking defenses in Houston and NYJ. He can provide a veteran option to lead the group and ensure the younger players are ready.




OT LaAdrian Waddle [New England] 1 year 2.5 million/500k guaranteed [2.5]

If the Bears move on from Bobbie Massie and they go young at OT I believe that they need a legitimate NFL OT that has starts at both LT and RT to come in and be there in case the young guys really struggle. They need someone who is better than Bradley Sowell, because they may start the entire season if Coward and a draft pick get injured.



-I believe the focus of the Bears in free agency will have to be on veteran depth and competition for younger cheaper players. Players that can come in and give the Bears an option if younger and cheaper players are unable to hold down the job. 

-They just do not have the cash or the flexibility to make even a single major move.

-This is even more true if you want to extend Whitehair, Howard, RRH or some of the other young players during 2019 or 2020.

[WindyCity]

Draft [3 million]

3[84] OT Isaiah Prince [Ohio St] 6'7" 310lbs.

The Bears biggest area of concern and the biggest need for next season appears to be RT. I think Coward could be the long term starting RT, but the Bears cannot rely on him without actual competition and depth. The Bears need someone who can push Coward and who can step in at LT if needed. Prince is the type of OLmen that I think the Bears should be targeting. While he is an experienced player starting 3 years at RT, he has the athletic upside and the rough edges that would make him an ideal project for Heistand. Prince or Coward would be an athletic upgrade over Massie, who doesn't really fit he mold of an OT in this system. Best case scenario is that Coward is the Bears starting RT and Prince is the athletic, starter upside, swing OT and the Bears have their best OT depth in years. Worst case scenario Prince gives the Bears a legitimate starting talent if Coward fails to hold the job.



4. S J.R Reed [Georgia] 6'1" 200lbs.

The Bears need to add another option at the S position to compete with Bush to be the long term starter. The Bears love Georgia defenders and Reed has the size and speed that can be used in the back end. Reed has also forced 4 turnovers in 20 games, which has been a focus for the Bears. The Bears have had success with mid round DBs and it is reasonable to expect based on Jackson, Amos and even the improvement of Bush that Reed can come in and compete.



5. QB Easton Stick [North Dakota St] 6'2" 225lbs.

This may seem like a wasted pick in a year of limited resources, but this is the best way for the Bears to potentially recoup some of the picks that left in the Mack and Trubisky deals. The Bears have a QB incubator going right now to develop Trubisky, but why not get another young QB in the room and see what you can develop. The Bears have the coaches and the scout team reps to develop a raw passer and see what happens. Maybe he becomes a long term backup, maybe he turns into a trade asset, the Bears should take advantage of what they have in place and the leagues desperation for QBs. This is a future investment.



7. OT Andre Dillard [Washington St] 6'5" 305lbs.

The Chiefs love to convert college OTs into OGs and they like the length and speed you find at OT. This is a deep future pick and puts another player in the developmental pipeline and working with one of the Bears best coaches. I do not think that the Bears will extend Long on a 3rd contract with his price tag and his health issues. My guess is once Whitehair gets paid we will be on Kyle Long watch. Dillard is a big athlete that can be developed for a couple seasons as an option for the eventual replacement of Long that is probably coming after 2019.



7. CB Isaiah Johnson [Houston] 6'3" 202lbs.

Ed Donatell has really worked wonders with mid round picks and UDFAs in his time with the Bears. The Bears have turned UDFA Bryce Callahan into a really good nickel, they got competent play from Leblanc, Eddie Jackson looks like a star, Adrian Amos is going to get paid by someone, Tolliver is flashing, and Bush and Houston-Carson at a minimum look like solid backups. Donatell might be the Bears best position coach. The Bears should continue to hand him young and athletic players and letting him work. Johnson has the same physical skill set as Tolliver and the size and length that the Bears appear to prefer. As a converted WR you would hope that he has the ball skills that the defense desires and with only 2 years at CB that there is some untapped potential to get here.





-With limited resources the Bears should be focused on depth and competition at a couple of key spots.
-It does not appear that they have any expendable pieces that they can move for mid/late round picks, so it appears they will have 5 picks.
-It becomes more important that they can focus on positions that tend to fall in the draft.

[WindyCity]

Depth Chart

QB: Trubisky, Daniel, Stick
RB: Howard, Cohen, Cunningham, Burton
WR: Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Wims, Bellamy
TE: Burton, Shaheen, Brown, Braunecker
LT: Leno, Prince
LG: Daniels, Kush
C: Whitehair
RG: Long, Dillard
RT: Coward, Waddle


RE: RRH, Bullard
NT: Goldman, Anderson
LE: Hicks, Nichols
OLB: Floyd, Irving
ILB: Smith, Kwiatowski
ILB: Trevathan, Iggy
OLB: Mack, Lynch, Fitts
CB: Fuller, Prince, Callahan, Tolliver, McManis, Johnson
FS: Jackson, Houston-Carson
SS: Gilchrist, Bush/Reed


K: Parkey
P: O'Donnell
LS: Scales

[WindyCity]

Bobby Massie	RT	30	CHI	TBD	$6,000,000	UFA	-
Kevin White	WR	27	CHI	TBD	$4,140,762	UFA	-
Aaron Lynch	DE	26	CHI	TBD	$4,000,000	UFA	-
Bryce Callahan	CB	27	CHI	TBD	$1,907,000	UFA	-
Josh Bellamy	WR	30	CHI	TBD	$1,907,000	UFA	-
Pat O'Donnell	P	28	CHI	TBD	$1,500,000	UFA	-
Marcus Cooper	CB	29	CHI	TBD	$1,500,000	UFA	-
Eric Kush	G	29	CHI	TBD	$1,350,000	UFA	-
Benny Cunningham	RB	29	CHI	TBD	$1,050,000	UFA	-
Zach Miller	TE	34	CHI	TBD	$790,000	UFA	-
Nick Williams	DE	29	CHI	TBD	$705,000	UFA	-
Marlon Brown	WR	28	CHI	TBD	$705,000	UFA	-
Patrick Scales	LS	31	CHI	TBD	$630,000	RFA	-
Adrian Amos	FS	26	CHI	TBD	$628,070	UFA	-
Michael Burton	FB	27	CHI	TBD	$616,089	UFA	-
DeAndre Houston-Carson	S	26	CHI	TBD	$585,000	RFA	-
Roy Robertson-Harris	DE	26	CHI	TBD	$542,333	RFA	-
Ben Braunecker	TE	25	CHI	TBD	$540,000	RFA	-
Rashaad Coward	G	24	CHI	TBD	$510,000	ERFA   Exclusive Restricted Free Agent	-
Isaiah Irving	OLB	25	CHI	TBD	$510,000	ERFA	-

 

[beardown3231]

I think that Howard is on his way out. I got torched for this earlier in the offseason when there was a lot of smoke around a trade, and after a few average games from him, I'm still struggling to see his fit in this offense. I could see a trade for a 4th round pick which the Bears could then use on a guy like Benny Snell, Mike Weber or Myles Gaskin.

As for the cap space, NFL teams maneuver that thing so much in today's NFL that I'm not concerned. As you pointed out, teams can restructure and such that it won't be too concerning. The issue will be if Trubisky turns out to be good (which would be a good problem to have) and then a lot of these good young players may have to be cut, traded or simply let walk.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

12 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I think that Howard is on his way out. I got torched for this earlier in the offseason when there was a lot of smoke around a trade, and after a few average games from him, I'm still struggling to see his fit in this offense. I could see a trade for a 4th round pick which the Bears could then use on a guy like Benny Snell, Mike Weber or Myles Gaskin.

As for the cap space, NFL teams maneuver that thing so much in today's NFL that I'm not concerned. As you pointed out, teams can restructure and such that it won't be too concerning. The issue will be if Trubisky turns out to be good (which would be a good problem to have) and then a lot of these good young players may have to be cut, traded or simply let walk.

I agree that Howard might be tradable, however I think a fourth would be too little. I also think there are going to be defenses the Bears pay that will see more Howard usage, so imagine him being redundant is going to be a games by game thing

[WindyCity]

56 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I think that Howard is on his way out. I got torched for this earlier in the offseason when there was a lot of smoke around a trade, and after a few average games from him, I'm still struggling to see his fit in this offense. I could see a trade for a 4th round pick which the Bears could then use on a guy like Benny Snell, Mike Weber or Myles Gaskin.

As for the cap space, NFL teams maneuver that thing so much in today's NFL that I'm not concerned. As you pointed out, teams can restructure and such that it won't be too concerning. The issue will be if Trubisky turns out to be good (which would be a good problem to have) and then a lot of these good young players may have to be cut, traded or simply let walk.

2019 is going to be tight even with moves and magic

Thank whoever you pray to that RRH is a RFA.

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, RunningVaccs said:

I agree that Howard might be tradable, however I think a fourth would be too little. I also think there are going to be defenses the Bears pay that will see more Howard usage, so imagine him being redundant is going to be a games by game thing

Ajayi catches the ball better and averages the same yards per carry and he got traded for a 4th. In today's NFL, I don't think a slow RB is going for more than a 4th.

 

28 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

2019 is going to be tight even with moves and magic

Thank whoever you pray to that RRH is a RFA.

Correct, but they could probably restructure Leno, Gabriel, Long, and a few others as you mention with Robinson & Hicks. They also don't have to pay Lynch as much as you inexplicably suggest. They could either restructure or cut Daniel who is paid way too much.

They'll be fine.

[malak1]

Nice write-up. Idk why I was thinking we were getting Oakland’s 2019 2nd. Apparently it’s their 2020 2nd.

[WindyCity]

10 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Ajayi catches the ball better and averages the same yards per carry and he got traded for a 4th. In today's NFL, I don't think a slow RB is going for more than a 4th.

 

Correct, but they could probably restructure Leno, Gabriel, Long, and a few others as you mention with Robinson & Hicks. They also don't have to pay Lynch as much as you inexplicably suggest. They could either restructure or cut Daniel who is paid way too much.

They'll be fine.

Lynch’s projection is based on less productive players in free agency last year.

Cutting Daniel saves 3 million, you would spent that all on a new backup.

[dll2000]

Coward at RT is a fascinating story.  If Bears pull that off and he is good they got so lucky.  Though I have been saying for decades that teams should be converting Dlinemen to Olinemen since there so many more good dline athletes than Oline athletes.  

20 mil in space with only large hole conceivably at OT?  One of youngest rosters in league still?  Bears are in really good shape.