5th Down Depreciation Thread

[MacReady]

55 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Franchise tag was not an option. Neither was a trade. And his cap number would have just kept going up the longer the Packers waited. The writing was on the wall with QB prices

Yes they were.  Lol.  You can’t say they weren’t options when they were.  They literally were.

I have ten billion dollars in my bank account.  Crap.  Saying things that aren’t true doesn’t make them true.

[cannondale]

3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Yes they were.  Lol.  You can’t say they weren’t options when they were.  They literally were.

I have ten billion dollars in my bank account.  Crap.  Saying things that aren’t true doesn’t make them true.

Name the last quality QB who was tagged and or actually played under the tag.

Anyway. I'm done fighting against such nonsense

Edited May 9, 2020 by cannondale

[squire12]

2 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Name the last quality QB who was tagged and or actually played under the tag.

Anyway. I'm done fighting against such nonsense

How do you want to define quality?   what is the criteria?

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Name the last quality QB who was tagged and or actually played under the tag.

Anyway. I'm done fighting against such nonsense

Dak Prescott

Kirk Cousins x2

Drew Brees

Peyton Manning

michael Vick

[MacReady]

50 minutes ago, cannondale said:

Name the last quality QB who was tagged and or actually played under the tag.

Anyway. I'm done fighting against such nonsense

You’re done fighting because your argument got beaten like a red-headed stepchild.
 

As far as the answer to your question, it’s just been posted so I won’t ruin your point twice with the same answer.

Also, two years remaining on a contract means two years before we would have had to use the franchise tag.  

[incognito_man]

2 hours ago, cannondale said:

I'm done debating against those ideas

Yay

[Packerraymond]

12 hours ago, incognito_man said:

False.

No one had a problem with it, go read the thread. Even our man @Outpost31 was relieved when he was signed and the contract wasn't fully guaranteed, had no escalator clauses and wasn't guaranteed to a percentage of the cap. You're all using hindsight, everyone liked that deal in August of 2018.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

No one had a problem with it, go read the thread. Even our man @Outpost31 was relieved when he was signed and the contract wasn't fully guaranteed, had no escalator clauses and wasn't guaranteed to a percentage of the cap. You're all using hindsight, everyone liked that deal in August of 2018.

I was relieved his contract wasn't tied to a cap percentage as had been rumored.  Not happy that it was done in the first place.  There's a difference. 

Find the threads before that where I fought tooth and nail to have Rodgers play out the remaining years of his deal or trade him. 

[Packerraymond]

14 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I was relieved his contract wasn't tied to a cap percentage as had been rumored.  Not happy that it was done in the first place.  There's a difference. 

Find the threads before that where I fought tooth and nail to have Rodgers play out the remaining years of his deal or trade him. 

Yeah I recall that, and there really wasn't anyone else standing on that hill with you, so everyone here is using some hindsight to their advantage.

To me, giving Rodgers the deal was the correct thing to do, and we've gotten value every year per the cap hit he's had. The first year it's looking pretty iffy if we receive that value is 2021 and we've already got a backup plan in place if that it the case and we need to part ways. All hail Gute.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Yeah I recall that, and there really wasn't anyone else standing on that hill with you, so everyone here is using some hindsight to their advantage.

To me, giving Rodgers the deal was the correct thing to do, and we've gotten value every year per the cap hit he's had. The first year it's looking pretty iffy if we receive that value is 2021 and we've already got a backup plan in place if that it the case and we need to part ways. All hail Gute.

We absolutely did not get value out of that deal in 2018.  2018 was the worst year of Aaron's career.  That Cardinals game should have mandated he give back 10 million dollars.  Then the Seattle game where he threw the worst pass on the easiest pass ever to MVS looked more like enemy action than fluke. 

2019 he got paid too much, too.  This coming season is the only year where his cap hit will be worth it. 

We 100% should have made him play at least one more season when he had two years left on his deal.  It was a significant mistake to redo that deal at the time.  Especially considering if he raised a stink we could have gotten a significant return on trading him with virtually zero cap hit. 

[gopackgo972]

How much do QB depreciate after they come off the lot? 

[Packerraymond]

7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

We absolutely did not get value out of that deal in 2018.  2018 was the worst year of Aaron's career.  That Cardinals game should have mandated he give back 10 million dollars.  Then the Seattle game where he threw the worst pass on the easiest pass ever to MVS looked more like enemy action than fluke. 

2019 he got paid too much, too.  This coming season is the only year where his cap hit will be worth it. 

We 100% should have made him play at least one more season when he had two years left on his deal.  It was a significant mistake to redo that deal at the time.  Especially considering if he raised a stink we could have gotten a significant return on trading him with virtually zero cap hit. 

2018 his cap hit was 20m, we absolutely got that value, even with the knee and the crappy season for the team. Last year he was part of a 13-3 team, outside of Aaron I'd say probably 6-7 other QBs could've accomplished that feat. 29m was worth it again to me. This year? Most likely the same thing.

This is a totally subjective Aaron Rodgers argument that can't be quantified as there is no field value to contract calculation for players. We should save ourselves the trouble as we know we'll never come to an agreement on this. I just wanted it written that I liked the contract then, I like it now, and I like the Jordan Love pick.

[packfanfb]

Wait, so now this asinine debate has morphed into whether we should have extended Rodgers, and if so when?

[incognito_man]

55 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

No one had a problem with it, go read the thread. Even our man @Outpost31 was relieved when he was signed and the contract wasn't fully guaranteed, had no escalator clauses and wasn't guaranteed to a percentage of the cap. You're all using hindsight, everyone liked that deal in August of 2018.

Can't find the thread you mention, but it's been a discussion for a long time regarding extending him. There have been a lot of opinions AGAINST doing it. At least several posters here have "blinked" eyes at the idea.

here's a thread where the 4th reply (prior to his contract) from @Outpost31 is:

Quote

 

As mamy as it takes for us to trade him.  Keeping him gives us a three year window.  Trading him gives us a 10 year window.  

What do 90% of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have in common?  Defense.  

 

@AlexGreen#20 suggested the same thing @squire12 did as well (also on page 1):

Quote

I don't see any reason you don't give Rodgers two years time with Pettine's defense. He's under contract for two more years and you've got the franchse tag for two years. That takes him until he's 38 years old. Does it suck for Aaron, yep. Is he going to be happy with you, probably not. But that's life. Unless you're really worried about him holding out or something, that's the game that you play if you're so aghast at paying an elite QB, elite QB money. 

This double quote from @Outpost31 and myself:

 

Quote

 

@Polaris was one of the only people speaking out against Favre the last few years of Brett's career and everybody (myself included) called him absolutely insane for suggesting we move on from Favre early.  The same thing is happening again with Rodgers and it's sad.

Hey now, I was on team Polaris very early too 

I'm also outspoken about keeping the team above any individual player. I'm not against moving in from Rodgers when the situation is right.

 

Overall, thread is filled with suggestions that Rodgers take less than he ultimately did for team success.

There was lots of eye-blinking.

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Last year he was part of a 13-3 team, outside of Aaron I'd say probably 6-7 other QBs could've accomplished that feat.

You're right. 

Unfortunately, that doesn't matter. 

Rodgers won 5/9 games where we gave up 21 or more points.  Four of those games came without Davante Adams, which means it was the 4 games Rodgers was forced to actually play LaFleur's system, and he thrived. 

Wilson won 7/13.
Mahomes won 7/9.
Brees won 6/9.
Garoppolo won 5/8.
Rodgers won 5/9. 
Watson won 5/11.
Carr won 4/11.
Murray won 4/15.
Winston won 4/13.
Tannehill won 3/7.
Cousins won 3/9.
Jackson won 2/5.
Prescott won 3/8.
Wentz won 3/8.
Ryan won 2/8.
Goff won 2/7.
Jones won 2/11.
Mayfield won 2/10.
Stafford won 2/7. 
Rivers won 1/10.
Minshew won 1/7.
Allen won 1/4.
Trubisky won 1/5. 
Brady won 0/3. 

As you can see from these numbers, no quarterback wins games when the defense doesn't make the game winnable.  So no, Aaron's cap hit was not worth it. 

If no QB can regularly win games where the opponent scores over 20 points, why are quarterbacks paid enough to pay three defensive starters to keep the opponent from scoring 21? 

The Patriots allowed over 20 points only three times.  The Bills only 4 times.  The Bears only 5 times. 

If the Bears had Allen or Brady, they'd have been a playoff team, too. 

This is why I hate the QB position.  It's why I have said for a very long time we would do just as well with Derek Carr as we would with Aaron Rodgers.  Not if their contracts were the same.  If their contracts were the same, yeah, we'd suck a lot.  But if you can get Derek Carr for 15-20 million per year or Aaron Rodgers for 25-30 million per year, you take the cap space. 

People are going to point to Mahomes, and I'm like why?  He's on a rookie contract.  As great as he is, he is not going to be winning those games when they can no longer afford to draft Mecole or Hill or Kelce types and instead have to draft defense because they can no longer afford to sign defense. 

Russell Wilson is an extreme outlier here because holy balls, what a season he had.  Wilson just had an Aaron Rodgers 2014 season.  Holy cow. 

So when you say he was worth 29 million this past year, I wholeheartedly disagree.