5th Down Depreciation Thread

[Packerraymond]

31 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

You're right. 

Unfortunately, that doesn't matter. 

Rodgers won 5/9 games where we gave up 21 or more points.  Four of those games came without Davante Adams, which means it was the 4 games Rodgers was forced to actually play LaFleur's system, and he thrived. 

Wilson won 7/13.
Mahomes won 7/9.
Brees won 6/9.
Garoppolo won 5/8.
Rodgers won 5/9. 
Watson won 5/11.
Carr won 4/11.
Murray won 4/15.
Winston won 4/13.
Tannehill won 3/7.
Cousins won 3/9.
Jackson won 2/5.
Prescott won 3/8.
Wentz won 3/8.
Ryan won 2/8.
Goff won 2/7.
Jones won 2/11.
Mayfield won 2/10.
Stafford won 2/7. 
Rivers won 1/10.
Minshew won 1/7.
Allen won 1/4.
Trubisky won 1/5. 
Brady won 0/3. 

As you can see from these numbers, no quarterback wins games when the defense doesn't make the game winnable.  So no, Aaron's cap hit was not worth it. 

If no QB can regularly win games where the opponent scores over 20 points, why are quarterbacks paid enough to pay three defensive starters to keep the opponent from scoring 21? 

The Patriots allowed over 20 points only three times.  The Bills only 4 times.  The Bears only 5 times. 

If the Bears had Allen or Brady, they'd have been a playoff team, too. 

This is why I hate the QB position.  It's why I have said for a very long time we would do just as well with Derek Carr as we would with Aaron Rodgers.  Not if their contracts were the same.  If their contracts were the same, yeah, we'd suck a lot.  But if you can get Derek Carr for 15-20 million per year or Aaron Rodgers for 25-30 million per year, you take the cap space. 

People are going to point to Mahomes, and I'm like why?  He's on a rookie contract.  As great as he is, he is not going to be winning those games when they can no longer afford to draft Mecole or Hill or Kelce types and instead have to draft defense because they can no longer afford to sign defense. 

Russell Wilson is an extreme outlier here because holy balls, what a season he had.  Wilson just had an Aaron Rodgers 2014 season.  Holy cow. 

So when you say he was worth 29 million this past year, I wholeheartedly disagree. 

The same Derek Carr who won 20% less games when his defense didn't step up for him? That's enough wins to probably make the Vikings the 2019 NFCN Champs. You're never going to get an argument from me that a great defense is always an excellent formula to achieve success and you never have. Eventually like Jimmy G, Trubisky, Bortles and on down the list have shown us in the postseason, you'll be playing a team with a defense AND a QB, and you'll need yours. Defense + QB wins championships. Both failed us in the NFCCG last year, but up until then I think they showed the perfect balance of both. We played complimentary football last year. Take Rodgers off our team; add Carr and give us like an Akiem Hicks/Cam Heyward type player to match up the salary hits, are we the SB Champs? I doubt it. Doubt we're even 13-3. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Packerraymond said:

Defense + QB wins championships.

 

Can win with mediocre QB, cannot win with mediocre defense. 

If you were to remove the 7 points the Texans scored after recovering a muffed punt at the KC 6 yard line, the Chiefs allowed 20.3 points per game this past year.

That would be only the 5th QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl when their defense allowed over 19 points per game in the playoffs. 

Quote

Chiefs - 20.3
Patriots - 20.6
Eagles - 16.6
Patriots - 18.0
Broncos - 14.6
Patriots - 18.3
Seahawks - 13.3
Ravens - 18.0
Giants - 14.0
Packers - 19.0
Saints - 19.6
Steelers - 19.6
Giants - 16.3
Colts - 12.8 (You think any QB is winning a Super Bowl throwing 3 TD/7INT in 4 games without that defense?)
Steelers - 15.5
Patriots - 17.0
Patriots - 19.0
Buccaneers - 12.3
Patriots - 15.6
Ravens - 5.7
Rams - 19.6
Broncos - 10.6
Broncos 16.3
Packers - 16.0
Cowboys - 18.3
Niners - 18.3
Cowboys - 17.0
Cowboys - 15.7
Redskins - 13.7
Giants - 11.7
Niners - 15
Niners - 7 (Joe Montana was so fantastic only having to score an average of 8 points)
Redskins - 12.3
Giants - 7.7
Bears - 3.3
Niners - 6.3 (Montana was so fantastic only having to score an average of a touchdown)
Raiders - 11.0
Redskins - 10.3
Niners - 24 (This one was the most impressive Super Bowl win from a QB from a points against perspective, but Montana threw 6 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in 3 games).  
Raiders - 12.5
Steelers - 13.0
Steelers - 12.3
Cowboys - 7.7
Raiders - 14.0
Steelers - 12.3
Steelers - 9.0
Dolphins - 8.7
Dolphins - 10.3
Cowboys - 5.3
Colts - 10.0
Chiefs - 4.3
Jets - 12.3
Packers - 10.3
Packers - 18.5 (two games)

How many defenses even GOT to the Super Bowl with a dreadful postseason performance leading up to it? 
Now ask yourself how many quarterbacks got there with dreadful performances.  Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger... In fact, Peyton Manning has never won a Super Bowl without having at LEAST one really bad game to get there. 

The only three quarterbacks I can even remember NOT having a bad game on their way to a Super Bowl win have been Foles, Flacco and Eli Manning.  All three are the definition of mediocre quarterbacks. 

Peyton Manning's first Super Bowl win he had 1 TD, 3 INT in the Wild Card, 0 TD, 2 INT in divisional and 1/1 in the Championship. 

He had a QB rating of 39.6 in the divisional round. 

Tom Brady has 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in Championship games. 

So when you have DOZENS of examples of BAD - REALLY FRICKIN BAD - QB play that still gets to and wins the Super Bowl, but you cannot think of a single instance where a BAD defensive performance gets a team to the postseason, which do you think is more important? 

Defense is, has been and always will be more important than a QB. 

In no way whatsoever - EVER - should 1.9% of a roster make 13% of the salary cap limit.  

 

[gopackgo972]

Live look in at Outpost

 

[incognito_man]

Aaron Rodgers is the worst.

[MacReady]

Just now, YaddaHolla said:

Live look in at Outpost

 

It's true though. 

Just honestly think about how many quarterbacks had BAD games and entire postseasons and still won the Super Bowl.  When the worst a defense has ever averaged in points allowed has been 24 points per game...

 

[gopackgo972]

42 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

It's true though. 

Just honestly think about how many quarterbacks had BAD games and entire postseasons and still won the Super Bowl.  When the worst a defense has ever averaged in points allowed has been 24 points per game...

 

 

he has a solid game here

[gopackgo972]

46 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Aaron Rodgers is the worst.

[fattlipp]

6 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

 

Can win with mediocre QB, cannot win with mediocre defense. 

If you were to remove the 7 points the Texans scored after recovering a muffed punt at the KC 6 yard line, the Chiefs allowed 20.3 points per game this past year.

That would be only the 5th QB in NFL history to win a Super Bowl when their defense allowed over 19 points per game in the playoffs. 

How many defenses even GOT to the Super Bowl with a dreadful postseason performance leading up to it? 
Now ask yourself how many quarterbacks got there with dreadful performances.  Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger... In fact, Peyton Manning has never won a Super Bowl without having at LEAST one really bad game to get there. 

The only three quarterbacks I can even remember NOT having a bad game on their way to a Super Bowl win have been Foles, Flacco and Eli Manning.  All three are the definition of mediocre quarterbacks. 

Peyton Manning's first Super Bowl win he had 1 TD, 3 INT in the Wild Card, 0 TD, 2 INT in divisional and 1/1 in the Championship. 

He had a QB rating of 39.6 in the divisional round. 

Tom Brady has 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in Championship games. 

So when you have DOZENS of examples of BAD - REALLY FRICKIN BAD - QB play that still gets to and wins the Super Bowl, but you cannot think of a single instance where a BAD defensive performance gets a team to the postseason, which do you think is more important? 

Defense is, has been and always will be more important than a QB. 

In no way whatsoever - EVER - should 1.9% of a roster make 13% of the salary cap limit.  

 

Chiefs  just won with a mediocre defense, no way they were top 10

Edited May 9, 2020 by fattlipp

[MacReady]

Just now, fattlipp said:

Chiefs  just won with a mediocre defense, no way they were top 10

Not trying to take anything away from Mahomes because that was one of the ultimate postseason performances from a QB EVER, but...

The Chiefs allowed 22.6 points per game in the postseason (20.3 if you take away the 6 yards the Texans needed to score a TD after a muffed punt). 

Second highest all-time for a team to win the Super Bowl yes, but let's look at what the Chiefs defense did that made them more than just mediocre:

11.5 points per game in the final 7 regular season games. 
10 points in the final three quarters allowed against Texans (5 sacks).
7 second half points allowed against the Titans. 
10 second half points allowed against Niners.

The Chiefs defense absolutely displayed dominance in the second half of each of those games. 

[Dubz41]

On 5/9/2020 at 6:47 PM, Outpost31 said:

Not trying to take anything away from Mahomes because that was one of the ultimate postseason performances from a QB EVER, but...

The Chiefs allowed 22.6 points per game in the postseason (20.3 if you take away the 6 yards the Texans needed to score a TD after a muffed punt). 

Second highest all-time for a team to win the Super Bowl yes, but let's look at what the Chiefs defense did that made them more than just mediocre:

11.5 points per game in the final 7 regular season games. 
10 points in the final three quarters allowed against Texans (5 sacks).
7 second half points allowed against the Titans. 
10 second half points allowed against Niners.

The Chiefs defense absolutely displayed dominance in the second half of each of those games. 

Stick with your usual assault.  'Cuz now you're just cherry picking and it lessens your case. 

For Instance:  The Packers soundly defeated the 49ers in the second half of the NFCCG last year. (true, but bu****it statistic)

[mikemike778]

On 09/05/2020 at 5:16 PM, Packerraymond said:

The same Derek Carr who won 20% less games when his defense didn't step up for him? That's enough wins to probably make the Vikings the 2019 NFCN Champs. You're never going to get an argument from me that a great defense is always an excellent formula to achieve success and you never have. Eventually like Jimmy G, Trubisky, Bortles and on down the list have shown us in the postseason, you'll be playing a team with a defense AND a QB, and you'll need yours. Defense + QB wins championships. Both failed us in the NFCCG last year, but up until then I think they showed the perfect balance of both. We played complimentary football last year. Take Rodgers off our team; add Carr and give us like an Akiem Hicks/Cam Heyward type player to match up the salary hits, are we the SB Champs? I doubt it. Doubt we're even 13-3. 

 

It depends on what you with that extra 10m. For all the whingeing about Rodgers safety first approach, him not throwing interceptions was a huge part of why we finished 13-3. Generally most of the time, he did enough to make sure we won the game. I don't think that Carr does the same - he is going to lose you some of these games.

Swap Rodgers with Carr and you probably have an offence that isn't good enough to win 13 games. That 10m is going to have to turn your defence into a truly elite defence to be in with a shout of going 13-3.

Not convinced either that Rodgers is worth 29m but someone has to play QB. Not convinced that Carr is worth 15m either.  There aren't many 'value for money' QBs.

[mikemike778]

The other QB v Defence issue is its not that easy to get an elite defence. Last off-season, we invested in two very expensive pass rushers both of which were a hit. We invested in a second contract highly paid safety and until this year have been ploughing all our draft picks into defence. And its still not very good. Its all very well saying save 10m by downgrading Rodgers to Carr but there's no guarantee that its going to give you a top defence. How many more players to do we need to get a top defence ?  Doesn't matter who we draft and sign, never seems to be enough. And that's if the players you bring in don't bust.

Swap Rodgers for more defensive players and you might well find that the defence still isn't fixed and now we have a sub-standard QB throwing to a poor receiving group as well.

 

 

 

 

[packfanfb]

On 5/9/2020 at 1:19 PM, incognito_man said:

Aaron Rodgers is the worst.

But also the best. Just depends on what thread you're in.

[MacReady]

27 minutes ago, mikemike778 said:

The other QB v Defence issue is its not that easy to get an elite defence.

It's easier than you suggest.

Chiefs had 24th scoring defense in 2018.  Fired their defensive coordinator and suddenly they're top 10 with all lateral or backward moves at adding pieces.

Except for 2012 and 2011 in which they were 12th and 11th and 2005 in which they were 17th, the Patriots have been a top 10 scoring defense since 2003. 
--That's 14/17 seasons as a top 10 scoring defense. 

There are plenty of NFL teams who have a top defense in spite of a lack of talent.  We've added more talent over the past couple years than any team and still we peaked at 12th overall in points allowed. 

Ask yourself what kind of defense the Patriots would have had if they had Alexander (whom Belichick has raved about), Z. Smith, Preston Smith, Amos, King, Clark, Savage...

We should have fired Pettine the MINUTE it was a socially acceptable time to do it.  Like not on the plane going back to Green Bay, but after he's had a chance to have a smoke or use the restroom if he has something against airplane restrooms. 

I'm sorry I'm not impressed with allowing 16 points in two games to Trubisky, 26 points total to the Vikings, 16 points to the Broncos and Panthers, 13 points to the Giants, 15 points to the Redskins but 20 points or more to every other damn team on our schedule.

We had three games against playoff teams outside the division last year.  We gave up 24 points to the Chiefs WITHOUT Mahomes and 37 points to the Niners. 

It's not hard to get a good defense if you have talent, health and a competent defensive coordinator.

We had 2/3 last year, but Pettine is so incompetent and the game has passed him by so much that our only real shot at being a top 10 defense this coming season is such significant jumps from Gary, Burks, Savage and one or two or 7 of Lancaster, Landry, Keke, Adams...

We were able to afford the defensive pieces needed on defense at the expense of offensive pieces, but we are in a prime position thanks to some of our draft hits.

Z/P Smith, Clark, Savage, Alexander, Amos and Gary is a better base than most great defenses. 

I have lost direction a long time ago and I am now rambling.  I'm just going to abruptly stop before I continue rambling all the way to

[gopackgo972]

I can depreciate this