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5th Down Depreciation Thread


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passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ROD339293_20

Look at this ****.  He is 30 points above league average when he throws to the middle of the field.  Gosh, I wonder why.  Probably because teams don't ****ing cover the middle of the field against us and if he'd just throw it there he wouldn't look so crippled.

I don't want to hear another complaint about needing to get Rodgers weapons.  He doesn't need weapons, he needs to use the weapons he has. 

 

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Just now, Outpost31 said:

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_ROD339293_20

Look at this ****.  He is 30 points above league average when he throws to the middle of the field.  Gosh, I wonder why.  Probably because teams don't ****ing cover the middle of the field against us and if he'd just throw it there he wouldn't look so crippled.

I don't want to hear another complaint about needing to get Rodgers weapons.  He doesn't need weapons, he needs to use the weapons he has. 

 

Probably because unlike your wrong takes, the middle of the field is not where guys sit wide open, but where the traffic sits and the tightest window throws occur. I'd be very confident the highest % of interceptions for all QB's occur here too. By avoiding it unless there is significant separation, he's not throwing the picks that other QB's do navigating the tight windows. Therefore higher QBR than the competition. 

He's also crippling the offense to run at its peak level and making it easier for defensive coordinators to scheme for us. I've admitted the unwillingness to throw tight window passes has been Rodgers downfall for the last 2 years, despite what you want to say about me. Just like when you're machining parts all day long there's an acceptable amount of scrap that shows you're running at peak levels, there's also an acceptable amount of turnover plays that show you are running an offense to its peak level, perfectly balancing risk and reward. I don't think anyone would argue Rodgers has become too risk adverse to be achieving that peak level. It's obvious. 

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I’m so mad I could crush a grape.

Paying him 20-30 million dollars a year and he ignores an entire third of the field.

Wish you could get away with that in other professions.  Garbage men only empty 2/3 of the trash.  Mail men only deliver 2/3 of the mail.  Strippers only show 2/3 of their nipples.  Painters only paint 2/3 of a house.  Lawyers only practice 2/3 of the law.  

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9 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Probably because unlike your wrong takes, the middle of the field is not where guys sit wide open, but where the traffic sits and the tightest window throws occur. I'd be very confident the highest % of interceptions for all QB's occur here too. By avoiding it unless there is significant separation, he's not throwing the picks that other QB's do navigating the tight windows. Therefore higher QBR than the competition. 

He's also crippling the offense to run at its peak level and making it easier for defensive coordinators to scheme for us. I've admitted the unwillingness to throw tight window passes has been Rodgers downfall for the last 2 years, despite what you want to say about me. Just like when you're machining parts all day long there's an acceptable amount of scrap that shows you're running at peak levels, there's also an acceptable amount of turnover plays that show you are running an offense to its peak level, perfectly balancing risk and reward. I don't think anyone would argue Rodgers has become too risk adverse to be achieving that peak level. It's obvious. 

Did you read that article?  It’s not that he avoids it, it’s that he is DEAD LAST.  Not only is he dead last, but the 25th worst is closer to first than he is to Rodgers.

25th worst at throwing to the middle of the field is closer to 24 ranks higher than he is to 7 ranks lower.

It is crippling our offense.  

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3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I’m so mad I could crush a grape.

Paying him 20-30 million dollars a year and he ignores an entire third of the field.

Wish you could get away with that in other professions.  Garbage men only empty 2/3 of the trash.  Mail men only deliver 2/3 of the mail.  Strippers only show 2/3 of their nipples.  Painters only paint 2/3 of a house.  Lawyers only practice 2/3 of the law.  

You do realize that all the big arm QB's are down there with him right? Stafford, Allen, Mahomes, Wilson, Wentz... 

No doubt he needs to do it more, but there is clutter in the middle of the field, if you've got the zip to get the ball outside to the bigger windows without giving the defenders the ability to close those windows, that's the superior throw to make in the NFL. There's a reason scouts get tingly in their happy places when a college QB can throw an opposite hash 15 yard out on a dime. That's indefensible in the league. 

30-35% is a totally acceptable amount for throwing over the middle. Take a couple of seam shots with a move TE (something we haven't had since #88), slants, option drags where the crossers read man/zone, throw a couple of Texas route's if you've got a RB that can beat a LB 1-1. All you need. Throw there enough to keep a defense honest, but there's a reason that the top 10 guys on that list don't have big arms. Ryan, Watson and Brees are all deadly accurate and that's how they make a living. The rest of that top half are just bad to mediocre throwers. 

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Just now, Outpost31 said:

Did you read that article?  It’s not that he avoids it, it’s that he is DEAD LAST.  Not only is he dead last, but the 25th worst is closer to first than he is to Rodgers.

25th worst at throwing to the middle of the field is closer to 24 ranks higher than he is to 7 ranks lower.

It is crippling our offense.  

Please read the first 5 words of the 2nd paragraph you quoted. Then please read the last sentence you typed. Stop arguing with me for the sake of being obtuse.

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

You do realize that all the big arm QB's are down there with him right? Stafford, Allen, Mahomes, Wilson, Wentz...

What?  Lol.  No they aren't. 

Wilson - 18% from first.
Stafford - 16% from first.
Allen - 13% from first. 
Mahomes - 13% from first.
Wentz - 12% from first

Rodgers - 25% from first.

Rodgers is 7% away from second last.  That is 3 times higher than the next closest gap between ranks. 

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17 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I’m so mad I could crush a grape.

Paying him 20-30 million dollars a year and he ignores an entire third of the field.

Wish you could get away with that in other professions.  Garbage men only empty 2/3 of the trash.  Mail men only deliver 2/3 of the mail.  Strippers only show 2/3 of their nipples.  Painters only paint 2/3 of a house.  Lawyers only practice 2/3 of the law.  

Now to be fair, I think most lawyers practice significantly less than 2/3 of the law and if your divorce attorney claims to also be a constitutional lawyer, you should probably get a new one. 

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2 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said:

Now to be fair, I think most lawyers practice significantly less than 2/3 of the law and if your divorce attorney claims to also be a constitutional lawyer, you should probably get a new one. 

2/3 of the nipple thing sounds kinda hot too TBH

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5 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

What?  Lol.  No they aren't. 

Wilson - 18% from first.
Stafford - 16% from first.
Allen - 13% from first. 
Mahomes - 13% from first.
Wentz - 12% from first

Rodgers - 25% from first.

You are pointless to debate with. Yes we've established he's a full standard deviation below 31st, yet all those other QB's are bottom 25%, so yes they are ranked to the bottom with him. Let's move on to actually discussing the football aspect of it, I have no interest in debating your hatred of Rodgers. 

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

You are pointless to debate with. Yes we've established he's a full standard deviation below 31st, yet all those other QB's are bottom 25%, so yes they are ranked to the bottom with him. Let's move on to actually discussing the football aspect of it, I have no interest in debating your hatred of Rodgers. 

When you're 7% worse than second worst you're really bad. 

Rodgers is a diva ***** and the Packers traded up to draft a QB because the best rookie head coach in Packers history got sick and tired of Aaron's bull****. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Look at this ****.  He is 30 points above league average when he throws to the middle of the field.  Gosh, I wonder why.  Probably because teams don't ****ing cover the middle of the field against us and if he'd just throw it there he wouldn't look so crippled.

I don't want to hear another complaint about needing to get Rodgers weapons.  He doesn't need weapons, he needs to use the weapons he has. 

 

Last year, his two primary weapons "over the middle" were his TE (Jimmy Graham) and his slot WR (Geronimo Allison). Find a team with a worse combo at those two positions. Find me a slower combo at those two positions. JFC. 

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3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

When you're 7% worse than second worst you're really bad. 

Rodgers is a diva ***** and the Packers traded up to draft a QB because the best rookie head coach in Packers history got sick and tired of Aaron's bull****. 

 

You've been reading too much Florio. 

This wasn't LaFleur's call, it was Gute's. Rookie HC's don't want rookie QBs over HOF QBs when they're trying to remain employed. That's pretty simple. 

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4 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

When you're 7% worse than second worst you're really bad. 

Rodgers is a diva ***** and the Packers traded up to draft a QB because the best rookie head coach in Packers history got sick and tired of Aaron's bull****. 

 

You know, it's funny.  My old man really knows football, coached it, understands it.

He didn't see the middle of the field thing until I told him last year.  And once you've seen it, you cannot unsee it.

And this is on Aaron.  No doubt.  Too many clips out there of him seeing a guy breaking open in the middle, intermediate, and he just won't throw it.

If the guy can get over that, his numbers could really soar.

Now...if you are looking at the middle of the field data, look at the Giants game.  He carved up the middle of the field against them.  Could have been defensive scheme/offensive gameplan.  So...if you remove that game from the data set and instead use an average of the other 15 games, that number gets oh so much worse.  At least that is my guess.  Not statistically correct to do that at all, but it is telling.

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Just now, packfanfb said:

Last year, his two primary weapons "over the middle" were his TE (Jimmy Graham) and his slot WR (Geronimo Allison). Find a team with a worse combo at those two positions. Find me a slower combo at those two positions. JFC. 

Jimmy Graham is not 7% worse than the second worst tight end. 

And let's not act like this is the first time this has happened. 

Look at the routes.  It's not that Graham and Allison sucked, it's that they were completely ignored over the middle. 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/davante-adams/ADA218591/season

Davante Adams ignored over the middle, too. 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/geronimo-allison/ALL713965/season

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/jimmy-graham/GRA207087/season

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