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Drew Brees - new all time passing yardage leader


Mid Iowa

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3 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

I don't mind ranking players.  I just don't like diminishing one player to pimp another one.  

The way people use stats when it suits them and ignore them when it doesn't.  It's human nature to be biased towards your own players, but you don't have to dog everybody else.

Amen to that

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6 hours ago, Asciimo said:

pretty easily. put a QB in a stressful situation and see how he performs most often. game winning drives & playoff games.

This isn't a measure. This is a scenario. 

How do you quantify a "game winning drive"? Is it a 90 yard drive within the two minute warning? Is it a 35 yard drive after interception that leads to a FG to take a lead that isn't relinquished with 10:21 in the 4th quarter? 

With any good measure, you also need to establish a negative, something that subtracts from the measurw - so what's the negative on this? An interception in the end zone? An interception, period? A failed drive in the 2 minute warning? 

For this to be a reliable measure, you've got to define much more than what you're proposing.

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38 minutes ago, LieutenantGains said:

Which is better to use when ranking QB’s? Need some opinions here 

 

Adjusted yards per pass attempt

Adjusted net yards per pass attempt 

One assigns blame for sacks to the QB, one does not. Probably best to use both. Sorry if that's not the answer you were looking for :(

You could create your own metric based on how much blame for sacks you think goes to the QB. The formula for ANY/A is (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks). To create your own metric, simply do (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - (x% * sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks) where x% is the percentage blame for sacks you think should be assigned to QBs on average. I think that's correct, anyway. Maybe it should be (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - (x% * sack yards)/(passing attempts + (x% * sacks)). Not sure.

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3 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

It won't happen. I'm not convinced he will play longer than Brees.

Brees has already said he won't play til he's 45.  He has one, maybe two years left IMO.

Brady may well play longer than Brees.  He'll be able to play til he's 45.

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1 hour ago, LieutenantGains said:

Which is better to use when ranking QB’s? Need some opinions here 

 

Adjusted yards per pass attempt

Adjusted net yards per pass attempt 

Pretty much every stat heavily comes with the context of the cast around them, but AY/A and ANY/A are both good with a slight edge to the latter.

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2 hours ago, LieutenantGains said:

Which is better to use when ranking QB’s? Need some opinions here 

 

Adjusted yards per pass attempt

Adjusted net yards per pass attempt 

Would definitely prefer ANY/A.  Sack rate is pretty much the most consistent Stat for QBs season-to-season even with rotating personnel along o-lines which suggests it's heavily influenced by the qb himself, so I see no reason to ignore it.  Plus it gives a better snapshot of overall efficacy of a passing offense and increases the sample size. 

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Another little som'som' about Brees
With a new personal best in last night’s historic performance (89.7%), Drew Brees is on pace to break the @NFL’s single-season completion percentage record, which was set by Drew Brees…last season.

Probably because he's so tall.

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26 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

Another little som'som' about Brees
With a new personal best in last night’s historic performance (89.7%), Drew Brees is on pace to break the @NFL’s single-season completion percentage record, which was set by Drew Brees…last season.

Probably because he's so tall.

Amazing accomplishment, although it is in part due to leaning heavily on the short passing game. Brees has been in the bottom half in air yards per completion (CAY) in the last three years at least. 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2018/all

I hope Brees gets MVP this season. Unbelievable that he hasnt gotten one yet.

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1 hour ago, childofpudding said:

Amazing accomplishment, although it is in part due to leaning heavily on the short passing game. Brees has been in the bottom half in air yards per completion (CAY) in the last three years at least. 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing/2018/all

I hope Brees gets MVP this season. Unbelievable that he hasnt gotten one yet.

Yes, Saints have started dinking and dunking as Brees has lost some deep ball ability in the past few years.

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3 hours ago, Jlowe22 said:

Brees has already said he won't play til he's 45.  He has one, maybe two years left IMO.

Brady may well play longer than Brees.  He'll be able to play til he's 45.

Brady is two years older than Brees and we would need two FULL seasons after Brees to pass him. I don't see Brady playing for another 4-5 seasons. Brees looks great this year, idk why everyone thinks he's done in a year but Brady is good to go forever

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