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BroncoBruin

Looking Ahead - Keep/Cut

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It's very apparent that this team is in need of a rebuild. Looking ahead to 2018 and our "big" contracts on the books, there are opportunities for huge cap savings with very little dead money between a lot of guys. Von is really the only "un-cuttable". Which of the following players would you keep and which would you cut/attempt to trade? 

 

QB Case Keenum - $21,000,000 (savings: $11,000,000) (dead money: $10,000,000) / trade save an extra $7,000,000 (but nobody would trade draft picks and $18,000,000 in cap for Case)

WR Demaryius Thomas - $17,533,334 (savings: $14,000,000) (dead money: $3,533,334)

WR Emmanuel Sanders - $12,937,500 (savings: $10,250,000) (dead money: $2,687,500)

DE Derek Wolfe: $10,925,000 (savings: $8,550,000) (dead money: $2,375,000)

OG Ron Leary: $9,375,000 ($7,625,000) (dead money: $1,750,000)

ILB Brandon Marshall: $9,000,000 (savings: $5,000,000) (dead money: $4,000,000) / post June 1 save an extra $2 million 

CB Chris Harris Jr: $8,7666,668 (savings: $7,900,000) (dead money: $866,688)

S Darian Stewart: $6,400,000 (savings: $3,600,000) (dead money: $2,800,000) / post June 1 save an extra $1.4 million 

ILB Todd Davis: $5,000,000 (savings: $3,000,000) (dead money: $2,000,000) / post June 1 save an extra $1 million 

 

I think Sanders and Harris are the only definite "keep"s for me. Probably can wait past OTAs to make decisions on Stewart and Davis, see how the young safeties and linebackers look. Marshall is gone, just a matter of whether they want to wait and save the extra money or not. DT, Leary and Wolfe are guys I just can't trust to play up to their contracts going forward. We'll probably be trading Leary's contract for McGovern's future contract if he keeps up his current level of play. 

Edited by BroncoBruin

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2 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

It's very apparent that this team is in need of a rebuild. Looking ahead to 2018 and our "big" contracts on the books, there are opportunities for huge cap savings with very little dead money between a lot of guys. Von is really the only "un-cuttable". Which of the following players would you keep and which would you cut/attempt to trade? 

 

QB Case Keenum - $21,000,000 (savings: $11,000,000) (dead money: $10,000,000) / trade save an extra $7,000,000 (but nobody would trade draft picks and $18,000,000 in cap for Case)

WR Demaryius Thomas - $17,533,334 (savings: $14,000,000) (dead money: $3,533,334)

WR Emmanuel Sanders - $12,937,500 (savings: $10,250,000) (dead money: $2,687,500)

DE Derek Wolfe: $10,925,000 (savings: $8,550,000) (dead money: $2,375,000)

OG Ron Leary: $9,375,000 ($7,625,000) (dead money: $1,750,000)

ILB Brandon Marshall: $9,000,000 (savings: $5,000,000) (dead money: $4,000,000) / post June 1 save an extra $2 million 

CB Chris Harris Jr: $8,7666,668 (savings: $7,900,000) (dead money: $866,688)

S Darian Stewart: $6,400,000 (savings: $3,600,000) (dead money: $2,800,000) / post June 1 save an extra $1.4 million 

ILB Todd Davis: $5,000,000 (savings: $3,000,000) (dead money: $2,000,000) / post June 1 save an extra $1 million 

 

I think Sanders and Harris are the only definite "keep"s for me. Probably can wait past OTAs to make decisions on Stewart and Davis, see how the young safeties and linebackers look. Marshall is gone, just a matter of whether they want to wait and save the extra money or not. DT, Leary and Wolfe are guys I just can't trust to play up to their contracts going forward. We'll probably be trading Leary's contract for McGovern's future contract if he keeps up his current level of play. 

I’ve said it b4 but unless his play slips I think we could get a 5th for Stewart.  True FS are so much harder to replace than SS.  

Case on the other hand we’d probably have to give a draft pick Osweiler style to take that contract off our hands.   

I agree that everyone else should go.  And Stewart isn’t being kept to hang on but he’s just a valuable movable asset if his level of play (EDIT) doesn’t decline.  But otherwise yeah it’s really time to move on the other guys at those numbers.  

Edited by Broncofan

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54 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I’ve said it b4 but unless his play slips I think we could get a 5th for Stewart.  True FS are so much harder to replace than SS.  

Case on the other hand we’d probably have to give a draft pick Osweiler style to take that contract off our hands.   

I agree that everyone else should go.  And Stewart isn’t being kept to hang on but he’s just a valuable movable asset if his level of play declines.  But otherwise yeah it’s really time to move on the other guys at those numbers.  

Anything they can get for Stewart is probably worth it next year. He'll be 31 and Cravens needs to get on the field. 

Yup, figure it would have to be an NBA-esque salary dump. And draft picks are now far more valuable than cap space on this team, so better to eat the 10 million in a rebuilding year. 

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We really have horrible contracts lmao 

Derek Wolfe & Brandon Marshall are getting 10m to be garbage 

Edited by champ11

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We should cut DT, Marshall, Wolfe and Leary.

Trade Darian Stewart for a R5

Use that R5 to attach w/ Keenum and ship him out of town.

But, importantly, dont spend the cap space on expensive win-now guys. Keep drafting well, sign young stopgaps and save the space for resigning our in-house draft hits.

We have tons of horrible contracts, but most Super Bowl teams are put in a position to overpay. Do you say 'ya this was likely a one year run' and let the guys that just got you a ring walk? You just cant do that. It sucks, and we are paying for it now, but most of these now gross deals didnt look so bad a few seasons ago.

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55 minutes ago, champ11 said:

We really have horrible contracts lmao 

Derek Wolfe & Brandon Marshall are getting 10m to be garbage 

To be fair, Wolfe contract wasn’t bad when he was extended. He’s just one bad play away (neck) and he’s done. He’s been playing hurt every year.

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6 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

To be fair, Wolfe contract wasn’t bad when he was extended. He’s just one bad play away (neck) and he’s done. He’s been playing hurt every year.

Wolfe is a pretty good player. But he's not a game changer like Malik was. Guys like Wolfe (above average-solid) really shouldn't get extended, those are the contracts that consume your cap if you let them. 

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7 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

Do we keep Marshall or Davis or neither? Honestly, I don’t know. They’re equally sucky.

Meh. Marshall absolutely has to go, Davis seems repetitive with AJ Johnson waiting in the wings. That's such a plug-and-play position, they should just develop the young core there. They'll probably be okay. 

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Meh. Marshall absolutely has to go, Davis seems repetitive with AJ Johnson waiting in the wings. That's such a plug-and-play position, they should just develop the young core there. They'll probably be okay. 

I think we could roll our Jewell and AJ this Sunday and not notice much if any downgrade. Both Davis and Marshall should be gone, but Davis has pictures of Elway doing coke or something because he is seemingly untouchable.

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15 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think we could roll our Jewell and AJ this Sunday and not notice much if any downgrade. Both Davis and Marshall should be gone, but Davis has pictures of Elway doing coke or something because he is seemingly untouchable.

Yup, they'd probably do okay. They need to find a guy who can really run to fill out that group eventually, but Marshall is washed up and Davis just can't run. 

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More in-depth on each guy:

 

Case: He was propped up as the team's leader and has been a bad starter. I don't think you keep a guy like that on the team next year, the dead money hurts but the cap savings will be helpful and you can start over at QB. See what you have in Chad and scout the hell out of the next two drafts at QB. No more half-measures. 

DT: 14 million in savings and he's probably an average starter at receiver at this point. I think there's a chance DT retires after this year. as banged up as he's been. He has to know the end is near, so maybe he comes to the table to negotiate a pay cut but sadly, I'd rather just move on altogether and not steal targets from Sutton and Hamilton. Great career, but it's time to move on.

Sanders: What a turnaround. He doesn't have the long speed he used to, but he still has that combination of quickness, reliable hands and great technique that will make him productive with any QB. I think he's the offensive vet worth keeping around to help our young QBs and provide some fire for what will be a young offense.

Wolfe: He's still a good starter, but doesn't give you much as a pass rusher so the value just isn't there. And the injury history is ugly. Another guy who should think about retirement soon. 

Leary: Can't afford to pay two guards in the near future. McGovern has been a pleasant surprise and seems to be only improving, extend McGovern and Paradis and solidify the interior for years. I really like Leary but the combination of age, cap figure and injury potential (the knee looks like it could always be trouble) tells me they move on. Good player but they should be able to find another guard without breaking the bank. 

Marshall: Still capable of running with RBs but mostly a liability, decline has really accelerated since the 2016 injuries. Easy cut. Maybe keep him through June 1st for the extra 2 million in savings. 

Harris Jr: For his salary, the easiest "keep" on the roster. He's a guy who I think could be approached for a reasonable extension to protect him financially for a couple year as he starts to gradually decline: Still a fantastic player and you need at least one corner.

Stewart: I at least keep him through OTAs. You can save a little money if he's cut post June 1st, and you'll have a somewhat better idea of what you have in Cravens and Parks before making a decision. Not sure about the trade value, but anything you get is a bonus.  

Davis: Not huge savings but I don't see why AJ and Jewell can't start on base downs next year. Leadership qualities are nice, but the defenses he's captained have been a huge step down from ones of the past. Chubb and Jewell are guys who need to step up into those leadership roles going forward. 

 

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6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Case on the other hand we’d probably have to give a draft pick Osweiler style to take that contract off our hands.   

Agreed that it would take a pick to unload Keenum's contract - but it's not obvious to me that it's what we should do. 

With one year remaining and a team that is > 1 year away from really competing, it doesn't make sense to give up draft capital to unload a player at a position we can't definitively improve upon without him.

Keenum is likely better than any other bridge QB we could sign in 2019 FA (save Tannehill or Bridgewater) and would still bring value to the team if we brought in a QB w/ a premium pick in the draft. Obviously signing Keenum this summer was a mistake - but fortunately it was a 2yr gamble rather than 3-5. 

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16 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Agreed that it would take a pick to unload Keenum's contract - but it's not obvious to me that it's what we should do. 

With one year remaining and a team that is > 1 year away from really competing, it doesn't make sense to give up draft capital to unload a player at a position we can't definitively improve upon without him.

Keenum is likely better than any other bridge QB we could sign in 2019 FA (save Tannehill or Bridgewater) and would still bring value to the team if we brought in a QB w/ a premium pick in the draft. Obviously signing Keenum this summer was a mistake - but fortunately it was a 2yr gamble rather than 3-5. 

I am with you...I don't mind Keenum being around.  I know he is expensive, but why not let Chad simply understudy Keenum to not only learn from him mistakes, but also the good qualities.  

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