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GDT - WK 6 - "There is only attack, attack, and attack some more"


Hunter2_1

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This GDT brought to you by George S. Patton. I'm 7-0 on GDTs, so I'm getting this rolling early.

Broadcast: NBC on TV 
Kickoff: Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
Line: Patriots by 3

Location: Foxborough, MASS.

09/07/2017 L

01/16/2016 W

09/29/2014 L

11/21/2011 W

09/07/2008 W

 

Image result for patriots vs chiefs

 

How We Can Win

Their D is bad.

They’ve given up 2,309 total yards in five games this season. That’s almost exactly 300 yards worse than the next-worst Oakland Raiders, and far and away the worst in the entire NFL.

For as much as Patrick Mahomes gets described as a backyard gunslinger, this secondary’s effectively turned every quarterback they face into a backyard gunslinger - they’ve given up 1,715 yards through the air, for an average of 343.0 per game.

We could be in for a shoot-out, like everyone is predicting, but we all know it's not smart to get into that stuff with New England. No wisdom in trying to outscore a New England Patriots team that’s ranked in the top 3 in points scored every year this decade. TB is historically unmatched when throwing in excess of league average attempts.

When on D, I think we need to change back to 2017's version of anti-TE. Against Indianapolis, Chung was on Hines quite often, and it was D-Mac who was often in coverage vs Ebron, who had a big day. Last season, Chung often had specific TE duties, and we limited some good TEs to meagre days. I think they switch this week - McCourty to watch Hunt, Chung to be on Kelce a lot. 

 

Where We Can Lose

Number 2 scoring offense, and they are the best at being in the lead - Only Denver have forced them to play catch up. We seem to always peform better when WE have the lead, so this will be crucial. Their opening drive vs JAX is a good example of imposing their will early with a 10-play, 73-yard drive, which showcased some their creative/weird formations and concepts. 

We haven't been great at covering TEs so far (see Ebron). They happen to have Kelce, the only one who can rival Gronk in the receiving game. We saw last season what they can do with their running backs in the passing game, and let's not forget the burner Hill on the outside who you just cannot cover for 4+ seconds. 

The Mahomes-condundrum. Do we do what we did vs Luck and not try and penetrate/aggressively rush him, but to keep contain and keep him inside? If so, he will have all day to find Hill and co. who are hard to cover - and he could light us up. Do we go balls-to-the-wall and try and deck him, risking coverage numbers? If you see the play in the 2nd Q vs JAX, Mahomes was blitzed by 6, and he threw a last minute hot to the RB who was off (I, however, feel this was a very risky play as it looked like he couldn't see him and just flung it). I think he will get his, we just need to try and make plays. He does make some really dodgy throws, and we saw JAX pick him off twice. I'd say where Brady has been unlucky with picks, PM has been slightly lucky with some non-picks.

We're also giving the ball away more than we usually do. We hardly ever averages more than one giveaway per game. The last time the team had more than one per contest after five games came in 2013, when it turned the football over six times between weeks one and five. That year, the Patriots finished with an average of 1.25 turnovers per game (20 in 16 regular season games). The 2018 squad, for comparison, currently sits at 1.8 giveaways per contest.

 

 

The Opposition Fan's View;

"I'd be substantially more confident against New England with Berry in the lineup. We've done well against Gronk in recent years mostly by virtue of having an OLB chip him en route to rushing the passer, while Berry mans up against him after that. Gronk has had success against us when we've had to play zone or put a CB on him. James White would definitely get his either way, but if we have Berry to restrict Gronk and Brady not having much at WR, I really wouldn't be worried. And no offense, but nothing about your D worries me against our offense.

On the flip side, if we get to that matchup, you guys have Edelman back from suspension, but we're still without Berry and Sorensen due to injury, it's going to be a shootout. Much like our season has gone so far, it'd be us giving up chunk plays to the slot, TE, and RB and failing to get off the field, while hoping that our O can just overwhelm the D enough to outpace them. Which is possible with out firepower, but not an ideal way to play week to week."

 

Injuries - They will be without Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, starting G. Probably also Justin Houston. Don't like to mess with injuries, but those are two not-insignificant losses.

 

 

Let's maybe not throw too many blitzes at them...

 

Bildschirmfoto_2018_10_11_um_10.20.32.png

 

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Great job. I didn't read any of it but I can tell a lot of effort went into it. I'm here for the Pats "upset" of the Chiefs. I think it helps that the Chiefs lost their starting RG for the game at least, (but not necessarily a key to the game for the Pats). I look forward to reading through the OP later.

 

Btw didn't know the game was SNF.

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I don't think the Patriots will suffer the same fluke interceptions they suffered against Indy. KCs defense should be worse also. 

We score 41.

Our defense will give up tons of yards and points but create 1,2 turnovers. On the other possessions they score.

They score 31.

 

41-31.

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3 hours ago, SBLIII said:

I don't think the Patriots will suffer the same fluke interceptions they suffered against Indy. KCs defense should be worse also. 

We score 41.

Our defense will give up tons of yards and points but create 1,2 turnovers. On the other possessions they score.

They score 31.

 

41-31.

Alex Smith gets traded to the Chiefs in the third quarter and they come back to win the game.

 

45-41. Chiefs.

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Why do I feel that the offense never lives up to expectations vs league worst defenses? They'll get theirs, but I doubt they put up 40+ points.

 

EDIT: Just rewatched the lowlights from last years match. Not being able to convert on two 4 and inches drives was killer. What ever happened to the automatic first down Brady sneak? The line got pushed back every time. Also, Hunt KILLED US. WOW. Alex Smith looked like a God. 

I hope not, but I can only feel like this will be a repeat of last years match.

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I think they blitz a lot up the middle and play contain on the edges to force Pat off his spots. Denver had a lot of success with it a few weeks ago. I think they go with the tried and true and make the young QB beat them through the air despite Mahomes success thus far. 

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12 hours ago, Deadpulse said:

I think they blitz a lot up the middle and play contain on the edges to force Pat off his spots. Denver had a lot of success with it a few weeks ago. I think they go with the tried and true and make the young QB beat them through the air despite Mahomes success thus far. 

Agreed

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