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rickyt31

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On 8/18/2017 at 9:05 AM, theJ said:

Ok, here's what i'm trying to say:

Yes, there will be dips.  There will be surges.  The S&P is sitting right now at 2430.

In Jan 1995 it was 465.

If, in Jan 1995 you said you were waiting for a big correction below 465, you'd still be sitting there today with cash in your pocket devalued by 6x.

Making my point another way:

If, in Dec 2005 you said you were waiting for a big correction, you would have guessed right.  The market crashed from 1561 to 683 (Oct 2007 to Mar 2009).  But how do you know when you hit the bottom?  If in March 2009 you had guessed the bottom was still some ways away, you would have missed the bottom.  If you guessed the bottom was still 2 years out, you actually would have missed completely from Dec 2005 to Mar 2011 (market went up).

Point is that, yes, we'd all like to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.  But you can only do with the benefit of hindsight, because we have no idea where the bottom is in the future.

 

Certainly predicting a crash is essentially impossible. But knowing when the Dow has bottomed is quite simple. There is a difference between a crash and a correction. In the later the index will plunge relatively mildly  then rebound very quickly. In the former it will plunge hard and recover slowly. Which is why you must wait a few weeks at least to make sure that you are not reacting to a correction. There is a mathematical model having to do with percentages of losses vs gains. If it falls 50% buy in. 

 

 

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I do a mix of day trading, swing trading and investing. I enjoy the rush of the swing and day trading. If you do it moderately well and keep your stop losses super tight it's almost impossible not to make some damn good gains. Started with 3K about 6 months ago and have nearly doubled it. What I've earned I put into high yield dividend stocks like At&t and Johnson and Johnson, Clorox etc. Then just let the compounding do it's magic. Anyone doing day or swing trading try using RobinHood. No commissions whatsoever. They make money off of the interest that sits in the accounts. It's app only and isn't a full service broker like Etrade or TD Ameritrade so you'll have to use other software for your charting purposes but the app is solid and dependable. I started with TD Ameritrade to learn the ropes and quickly realized paying $14 of my profits to them everytime I swing a stock was stupid.

I luckily have one of those jobs where I sit and wait for something to happen so I have some time on my hands for in depth charting and analysis. B|

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20 hours ago, incognito_man said:

ha!

 

yeah, in hindsight it sure it simple :)

 

I do not exist to teach you how to invest, but I have one more tip. Watch the unemployment statistics. Shortly after the lay off rate peaks the Dow is at it's bottom.

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23 minutes ago, TVScout said:

I do not exist to teach you how to invest, but I have one more tip. Watch the unemployment statistics. Shortly after the lay off rate peaks the Dow is at it's bottom.

Shortly after one thing you can't predict, and have no idea when it actually peaks, peaks, something else peaks. 

 

What a revelation. Let's all go make our billions.

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2 hours ago, TVScout said:

I do not exist to teach you how to invest, but I have one more tip. Watch the unemployment statistics. Shortly after the lay off rate peaks the Dow is at it's bottom.

If you can call the peak layoff rate, I know people who can get you a high paying job managing other people's money. Seriously, if you're that good, you should be going pro.

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Figured I'd ask here.

I have a Vanguard Star Fund with my grandpa as the main person on it. I want to transfer it to my name, Vanguard says I have to make a new account and transfer the money over. What type of vanguard accounts would you recommend? If it makes any difference, theres about 6500 in the account now.

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15 minutes ago, patdt13 said:

Figured I'd ask here.

I have a Vanguard Star Fund with my grandpa as the main person on it. I want to transfer it to my name, Vanguard says I have to make a new account and transfer the money over. What type of vanguard accounts would you recommend? If it makes any difference, theres about 6500 in the account now.

Answer kind of depends on a few things:

  1. Do you already contribute to a 401k or rothIRA?
  2. Do you have an earned income?
  3. Do you have any major outstanding debts?

In general, you want to pick an ETF S&P 500 index fund. If you don't have any big outstanding debts and earn an income, but don't regularly contribute to a retirement account, you should open a Roth IRA and invest it there. If you already chunk away a good part of your income to retirement you can just do a regular brokerage account. 

If however you still have some big debts or big purchases coming up, I'd suggest doing the boring thing and cashing it out to pay those things off. 

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I will have my car paid off in a year or so...if I am already putting the max % that my company will match to my 401k, should I use the money I'm currently putting towards my car to increase my contribution to my 401k or open a Roth IRA? I'm guessing the latter but can't hurt to ask.

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3 hours ago, theJ said:

 

Answer kind of depends on a few things:

  1. Do you already contribute to a 401k or rothIRA?
  2. Do you have an earned income?
  3. Do you have any major outstanding debts?

In general, you want to pick an ETF S&P 500 index fund. If you don't have any big outstanding debts and earn an income, but don't regularly contribute to a retirement account, you should open a Roth IRA and invest it there. If you already chunk away a good part of your income to retirement you can just do a regular brokerage account. 

If however you still have some big debts or big purchases coming up, I'd suggest doing the boring thing and cashing it out to pay those things off. 

1. No

2. Recent college grad looking for work

3. No debts

 

I think it has to be vanguard 

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2 hours ago, ninerfanwheelz said:

I will have my car paid off in a year or so...if I am already putting the max % that my company will match to my 401k, should I use the money I'm currently putting towards my car to increase my contribution to my 401k or open a Roth IRA? I'm guessing the latter but can't hurt to ask.

Can't go wrong reading bogleheads: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Prioritizing_investments

To answer your question: IRA unless company offers a great selection of funds. Mine does, so I go that route.

Edited by incognito_man
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23 hours ago, Iggles said:

If you can call the peak layoff rate, I know people who can get you a high paying job managing other people's money. Seriously, if you're that good, you should be going pro.

I'm not calling the peak layoff rate. The department of labor is.

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1 hour ago, TVScout said:

I'm not calling the peak layoff rate. The department of labor is.

I'm sure no one else is looking at those numbers on wall street, definitely not the Ivy League grads doing analyst internships working 100 hour work weeks. And I'm also sure that no one has done their own modeling to project unemployment and what type of drop down impact that has.

Brilliant. Can't believe no one has thought of this before and already reallocated their money well in advance of this.

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