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rickyt31

By rickyt31
in This aint sports talk!

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ramssuperbowl99

ramssuperbowl99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

Okay, I'm willing to accept verbal accosting here.

https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator

...what do I put in for the interest rate variance range (step 3) before compounding annually?

The SD. This is just giving you an upper or lower bound though, it's not a probabilistic calculator. So I put 10k, 7%, and variance of 17 (just as the SD). It gives me 3 lines, one at 7%, one at 24% (7+17), and one at -10% (7-10).

tbh, that's useless because no one expects the S&P to consistently be at the high or low end of it's normal variance constantly. 

You're looking for a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, which takes each year, picks a random +/- within the range we give it, applies that, then randomly does that again for the next year. Then, you repeat that simulation enough that you can get probabilities of where you might be. 

Here's a place to start:

https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/introduction-to-monte-carlo-simulation-in-excel-64c0ba99-752a-4fa8-bbd3-4450d8db16f1

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MWil23

MWil23

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The SD. This is just giving you an upper or lower bound though, it's not a probabilistic calculator. So I put 10k, 7%, and variance of 17 (just as the SD). It gives me 3 lines, one at 7%, one at 24% (7+17), and one at -10% (7-10).

tbh, that's useless because no one expects the S&P to consistently be at the high or low end of it's normal variance constantly. 

Okay, that's EXACTLY what I put in and exactly what I got back, which is why I was a bit confused...because obviously that's taking into account an incredible 24% growth and essentially me lighting money on fire altogether, with a middling return...so of the 3 data points, 2 were inherently worthless...although I'll take Door #1 at 24% if you allow me to. :) 

3 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

You're looking for a Monte-Carlo simulation approach, which takes each year, picks a random +/- within the range we give it, applies that, then randomly does that again for the next year. Then, you repeat that simulation enough that you can get probabilities of where you might be. 

Here's a place to start:

https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/introduction-to-monte-carlo-simulation-in-excel-64c0ba99-752a-4fa8-bbd3-4450d8db16f1

PERFECT!!!! Thanks!

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PARROTHEAD

PARROTHEAD

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Yea this day is really dragging. Days like this I wish I traded futures or crypto

I looked in to crypto. Might still give it a try. But the fees, storage, wallets, keys and all was kind of a put off. Especially since I dont really care to be holding any long term. But I guess I dont need all that if Im just looking to daytrade some here and there and never hold very long.

Dont really care for any of the brokerages either. Every one sucks in a different way. Higher fee here, hidden fee there, massive money transfer fee. Like to try one with a smaller account to see how things roll. But it feels like every bit of profit would end up in their pockets if slightly successful.

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Shockwave

Shockwave

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, PARROTHEAD said:

I looked in to crypto. Might still give it a try. But the fees, storage, wallets, keys and all was kind of a put off. Especially since I dont really care to be holding any long term. But I guess I dont need all that if Im just looking to daytrade some here and there and never hold very long.

Dont really care for any of the brokerages either. Every one sucks in a different way. Higher fee here, hidden fee there, massive money transfer fee. Like to try one with a smaller account to see how things roll. But it feels like every bit of profit would end up in their pockets if slightly successful.

Well trading crypto is "free" on Webull and I dabbled in it a little. But it's not viable for daytrading to me because you can only buy the ask and sell the bid. If you set a limit order for say 58,500 it will not fill until the actual ask is at that number. There is a gigantic spread in crypto so at the bid could be like 57,900 and the ask is 59,200. You cannot get filled at the mid. I don't know if that is just Webull as I have not traded crypto on any other app. 

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Shockwave

Shockwave

Posted
Posted

If you consistently trade a specific equity over and over again this is possible. Because you're realizing wins when you sell but your losses keep getting pushed back due to the wash rule everytime you rebuy. Your losses need to be realized by year end to count or they get carried over to the next year. Most traders that do this will stop trading their normal equities on December 1st until Feb 1st.

Agree with @PARROTHEAD it's a dumb rule and should be wiped off the books, as well as PDT and T+2 settlement. All 3 make it incredibly hard for small accounts to trade.

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Ty21

Ty21

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, PARROTHEAD said:

Worst rule ever. But how does someone get by not knowing it? Like driving around without plates and wondering why youre being pulled over.

I didn’t know about it til y’all told me 

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