Stock Investing

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

They were exactly this adamant 2 administrations ago, and the debt ceiling got raised every time despite a split Congress.

 

If it bothers you and makes you nervous, I'd stop checking. If I'm wrong, feel free to rub my nose in it in a few weeks, but seriously, it's not a thing to worry about.

Yep.

This is their one opportunity to try to exert some power, of course they’re going to try.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Maybe this will make you more comfortable.  If the they don’t raise the debt ceiling the market absolutely hits the crapper.

They all have their money in the market, and substantial amounts.

If you believe politicians act in their own self interest at all, sleep easy.

[MWil23]

20 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If I'm wrong, feel free to rub my nose in it in a few weeks, but seriously, it's not a thing to worry about.

Hahahahahaha! In your face! We're all destitute! Hahahahahaha!

Edited September 24, 2021 by MWil23

[BrettFavre004]

Just got hammered on my BBIG call options.  Thankfully I got them far enough out for January, but down huge right now.

Hopefully we finally start to see some trend reversal, got all the right ingredients for some nice short/gamma plays. 

 

 

[MWil23]

@ramssuperbowl99 I'm officially "all in" on the Monte Carlo calculator here. It did 1,000 scenarios for me, and essentially here's the breakdown:

Trial Number	Percentile	Year 5	Year 10	Year 15	Year 20	Year 25	End of Plan Future Dollars	End of Plan Current Dollars
10	99th Percentile	$104,983	$138,402	$176,642	$244,114	$607,937	$53,243,071	$14,745,525
250	75th Percentile	$54,744	$153,513	$359,822	$719,627	$2,109,857	$9,679,532	$2,680,720
500	50th Percentile	$85,148	$137,672	$281,143	$654,002	$1,584,498	$4,840,591	$1,340,589
750	25th Percentile	$69,769	$181,455	$357,266	$415,454	$453,909	$2,240,139	$620,400
990	1st Percentile	$56,645	$99,627	$173,487	$221,880	$323,127	$192,988	$53,448

 

Long story short, given my current trajectory, I'm in the "80% probability of success" zone. I guess I have a 20% chance room to worry if somehow I live above the age of 92 (LOL).

[ramssuperbowl99]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

@ramssuperbowl99 I'm officially "all in" on the Monte Carlo calculator here. It did 1,000 scenarios for me, and essentially here's the breakdown:

Trial Number	Percentile	Year 5	Year 10	Year 15	Year 20	Year 25	End of Plan Future Dollars	End of Plan Current Dollars
10	99th Percentile	$104,983	$138,402	$176,642	$244,114	$607,937	$53,243,071	$14,745,525
250	75th Percentile	$54,744	$153,513	$359,822	$719,627	$2,109,857	$9,679,532	$2,680,720
500	50th Percentile	$85,148	$137,672	$281,143	$654,002	$1,584,498	$4,840,591	$1,340,589
750	25th Percentile	$69,769	$181,455	$357,266	$415,454	$453,909	$2,240,139	$620,400
990	1st Percentile	$56,645	$99,627	$173,487	$221,880	$323,127	$192,988	$53,448

 

Long story short, given my current trajectory, I'm in the "80% probability of success" zone. I guess I have a 20% chance room to worry if somehow I live above the age of 92 (LOL).

Aka, you're good. 

I'd be the grandpa from Little Miss Sunshine a whole while before 92.

[MWil23]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Aka, you're good. 

I'd be the grandpa from Little Miss Sunshine a whole while before 92.

I'm assuming that the "50t Percentile" category would be assuming an average rate of return, correct? I've factored in the anticipated inflation by that stretch of time, and I even went super conservative on the average benchmark at around 6%.

And absolutely. I told my wife that every day above 70 is an ice cream cone a day/bonus day for the rest of my life.

[ramssuperbowl99]

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'm assuming that the "50t Percentile" category would be assuming an average rate of return, correct? I've factored in the anticipated inflation by that stretch of time, and I even went super conservative on the average benchmark at around 6%.

And absolutely. I told my wife that every day above 70 is an ice cream cone a day/bonus day for the rest of my life.

Yeah the 50th percentile is the median outcome, which should be pretty normally distributed so that should be close to the mean.

And you're so far off from retirement, at this point it's a "am I on track or do I have to change things" metric really. And the answer for you is definitely no you don't have to change anything, unless you'd want to try and spend more now which a financial advisor would tell you that you probably could get away with. But if the extra spending isn't going to make you happier, no point IMO.

Edited October 6, 2021 by ramssuperbowl99

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Yeah the 50th percentile is the median outcome, which should be pretty normally distributed so that should be close to the mean.

And you're so far off from retirement, at this point it's a "am I on track or do I have to change things" metric really. And the answer for you is definitely no you don't have to change anything, unless you'd want to try and spend more now which a financial advisor would tell you that you probably could get away with. But if the extra spending isn't going to make you happier, no point IMO.

Seriously, thanks for all your help with this over the past 3 years!  

Update:

I've shown my wife our amortization schedule and now have a visual to reinforce that paying off the mortgage early is essentially fiscally unsound given our 2.25% fixed rate (now 14 years and 2 months). After doing some homework (also props to @LETSGOBROWNIES here), I think that our parents were always in the "PAY OFF THE MORTGAGE" generation because rates were between 13-17%.

I'm still fixated enough on this to probably pay it off 17 months early, simply because I want to be done with our mortgage before our oldest goes into college (if she does). We don't have a 529, a wedding fund, etc., so this fund is essentially our "catch all" for tax purposes. I really DO NOT want to dig into this unless I have to, because years 20-25 are really when it's going to go to work for me, so having the extra cash on hand by not having a mortgage for things like anticipated college tuition (although my wife works at the School of Pharmacy at our local university and if they went there it would be free, so that's huge), weddings (3 if they all get married), and "fun money" is why I'd like to be done about a year and a half early.

[Shanedorf]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'm still fixated enough on this to probably pay it off 17 months early, simply because I want to be done with our mortgage

Kudos.
We went through the same math recently and ended up paying off the mortgage. Its a great feeling !

But I'm much older, so its a different scenario than yours.

On the weddings front, one way to do it is to offer  X amount of cash that they can use for the wedding or a down payment on a home purchase. What they choose will be a reflection of how you raised them ! HaHa !

Good luck

 

12 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Seriously, thanks for all your help with this over the past 3 years!

Concur - I followed rams99 advice on funding the HSA account - couldn't be happier with that revelation.

[ramssuperbowl99]

26 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Seriously, thanks for all your help with this over the past 3 years!  

Happy to do it, but really it all comes down to your own discipline. Well done man.

The WAYTA thread goes through it, but the deck is not stacked for just about anybody under 50 these days economically. Anyone who can both live and plan for their future is crushing it IMO.

[MWil23]

42 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Kudos.
We went through the same math recently and ended up paying off the mortgage. Its a great feeling !

But I'm much older, so its a different scenario than yours.

Not going to lie, if I ever won the Powerball that I don't play, I'd still thumb my nose in the face of every financial expert out there and pay off my house (it's our "forever home") just to have the peace of mind to know that I was 100% debt free and outside of food and basic bills, had everything I needed paid for free and clear...the month to month flexibility it would afford is just fantastic. That emotional peace of mind that @ramssuperbowl99 mentioned above.

42 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

On the weddings front, one way to do it is to offer  X amount of cash that they can use for the wedding or a down payment on a home purchase. What they choose will be a reflection of how you raised them ! HaHa !

Good luck

Ironically, my wife and I just had this conversation the other day. If kid A wants her dream wedding and kid C wants to have a small family one and pocket the rest, so be it.  

42 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Concur - I followed rams99 advice on funding the HSA account - couldn't be happier with that revelation.

I wish I would have known a bit more on the HSA option and the interest cheat code there...albeit my cleft lip/palate kid would have made that impossible given my own personally unique situation (more like hers), so the standard PPO is the route I'm on.

[MWil23]

45 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Happy to do it, but really it all comes down to your own discipline. Well done man.

Thanks! It turns out I'm a simple man (and thankfully my wife is almost zero maintenance whatsoever). I like spending money on food, grass seed (I probably need an intervention at this point), middle shelf bourbon, begrudgingly paying for the DirecTV Sunday Ticket, and projects around the home (which actually saves me money by doing them myself instead of hiring a professional in many instances). Past that, I'm kinda boring, and we don't really have much of an entertainment fund at all, not that it would matter with COVID.

45 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

The WAYTA thread goes through it, but the deck is not stacked for just about anybody under 50 these days economically. Anyone who can both live and plan for their future is crushing it IMO.

I'll be honest, and I'm REALLY not trying to paint with a broad brush here, but how the Boomer generation didn't kill it more than they have already (as opposed to squeezing every last drop of life out of everything for everyone else) is nothing short of shocking.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

The real fun part with HSA’s is when you’ve got enough put back and you can start investing that money.  Non taxed money growing tax free is the bees knees.

[Tetsujin]

One of my stocks is trading at $0.62 and they received a notice from NASDAQ that they need to be at $1 within 90 days. Will they pull off some manipulative stock voodoo to do it?