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rickyt31

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5 hours ago, TVScout said:

What are you talking about? 2003 bump? Peak in 2009? The Dow bottomed in 2002 and 2009.

Yeah, and you're talking about the relationship between unemployment and the Dow. If you're telling me you can tell when unemployment has peaked or when the Dow has bottomed, send me the details. I can seriously get you paid.

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On 2017. 08. 23. at 5:43 PM, TVScout said:

Similar to how doctors can predict the progression of diseases or how astronomers can predict the positions of objects in space. History repeats itself. Economics isn't as complicated as university professors and talking head economists on TV would have you believe.

You're conflating a deterministic system with a stochastic system here (well, this debate could be taken into a philosophyical direction about the existence of real stochastic systems, but let's just stay within the boundaries of the current way of modeling of financial markets).

First off, I'm not sure what you mean by doctors predicting the progression of diseases. If you mean disease progression inside the human body, then yes, it's a doctors job, it's a (largely) deterministic process. But the spreading of infectious diseases is modeled usually by mathemathicians, who have created both deterministic and stochastic models for this purpose. So the picture is not so simple here.

Astronomy is again a very broad field encompassing many different areas of modeling and so ways of modeling. Some models are deterministic, some are stochastic, but the particular case you mentioned is governed by the determinstic Kepler's laws.

History repeats itself is again a very broad term, that can be applied to a number of things (justified or not), but I assume you were alluding to the deterministic nature of stock markets. But simple deterministic models are hardly watertight in economics (see the spazz around Kondratiev and other wave theories), and lose all meaning in the random world of stock price prediction.

It would be interesting to know, that from this graph alone, which is a butchered version that you posted earlier...

9fz5s0L.png

...how can you come to the conclusion that the green line is the correct continuation of the trend (with a 90% probability nontheless), seeing as there are three possible outcomes purely based on the time-history of the separations. I'm seriously interested in your deduction method or calculation.

You're right that economics isn't as complicated as talking head economists would have you believe. It's even more complex, as the field lacks strong deterministic basis, contrary to your other examples. Or not, it doesn't need it, whatever, this is an issue of epistemology, I've seen it labeled pseudoscience by philosophers of science, others defending it, I'm just blathering at this point, please don't listen to me.

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I pay my bills, max out my 401(k) each year, and then give pretty much everything left over (minus a few grand as a buffer in the checking account) to my portfolio manager. I've tried getting into the ins and outs of stocks and bonds, and I do find it very interesting, but I just don't have the time to really get enough of an education in it to where I'd be comfortable to start doing things I already pay someone else to do for me that is exponentially better. Over the past few years we've gotten a little more aggressive with my mix, 80/20 split with stocks/bonds, and the return has been favorable, but the thing that helps the most is me being able to step away and kind of "forget" about it, which helps me living with the reality that this is a long game, and not to worry about the small ups and down of the day to day markets.

Having the portfolio has helped quite a bit with my real estate investing because I am able to take out a credit line against my portfolio to make down payments and cash down offers on properties, all the while having that money still work for me by continuing to be invested instead of just gone completely. I started my credit line in 2012 and the the growth of the money continuing to be invested has outpaced the interest on the credit line by a good margin.

I guess I treat Real Estate as my "stock market" because that's something I'd like to think I'm good at with predicting where property values are going and also knowing all the intricacies of real estate financing and development.

I must say it is tempting though whenever I hear whispers here and there of this stock that seems really attractive that is about to "take off". Sure I've missed on a couple that have actually done so that I could have made a nice chunk of change off of, but for every 1 that hit, I probably would have picked 5 losers.

 

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3 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

I pay my bills, max out my 401(k) each year, and then give pretty much everything left over (minus a few grand as a buffer in the checking account) to my portfolio manager. I've tried getting into the ins and outs of stocks and bonds, and I do find it very interesting, but I just don't have the time to really get enough of an education in it to where I'd be comfortable to start doing things I already pay someone else to do for me that is exponentially better. Over the past few years we've gotten a little more aggressive with my mix, 80/20 split with stocks/bonds, and the return has been favorable, but the thing that helps the most is me being able to step away and kind of "forget" about it, which helps me living with the reality that this is a long game, and not to worry about the small ups and down of the day to day markets.

Having the portfolio has helped quite a bit with my real estate investing because I am able to take out a credit line against my portfolio to make down payments and cash down offers on properties, all the while having that money still work for me by continuing to be invested instead of just gone completely. I started my credit line in 2012 and the the growth of the money continuing to be invested has outpaced the interest on the credit line by a good margin.

I guess I treat Real Estate as my "stock market" because that's something I'd like to think I'm good at with predicting where property values are going and also knowing all the intricacies of real estate financing and development.

I must say it is tempting though whenever I hear whispers here and there of this stock that seems really attractive that is about to "take off". Sure I've missed on a couple that have actually done so that I could have made a nice chunk of change off of, but for every 1 that hit, I probably would have picked 5 losers.

 

I listened to an interesting freakonomics episode recently.  They had the founder of vanguard as their guest.  He talked about a study that showed that 97% of portfolio managers are not worth their commissions. Data shows that it's more worthwhile to buy low cost index funds and ETFs and you'll be better off than having a portfolio manager.  Even Ivy League endowments, managed by the best and the brightest, do not outperform index funds.  

My advice - Dump your portfolio manager.  Open a Robinhood account which has commission free trading.  Put half of your money in index funds.  Put the other half into companies you believe in.  Then hold for a long time.

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2 hours ago, Gmen said:

I listened to an interesting freakonomics episode recently.  They had the founder of vanguard as their guest.  He talked about a study that showed that 97% of portfolio managers are not worth their commissions. Data shows that it's more worthwhile to buy low cost index funds and ETFs and you'll be better off than having a portfolio manager.  Even Ivy League endowments, managed by the best and the brightest, do not outperform index funds.  

My advice - Dump your portfolio manager.  Open a Robinhood account which has commission free trading.  Put half of your money in index funds.  Put the other half into companies you believe in.  Then hold for a long time.

That is because most university economics instruction is bunk. I have read multitudes of books on economics written by profs and all of them contain historical errors. It is like flaws in the genes that continue through the generations. 

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10 hours ago, Gmen said:

I listened to an interesting freakonomics episode recently.  They had the founder of vanguard as their guest.  He talked about a study that showed that 97% of portfolio managers are not worth their commissions. Data shows that it's more worthwhile to buy low cost index funds and ETFs and you'll be better off than having a portfolio manager.  Even Ivy League endowments, managed by the best and the brightest, do not outperform index funds.  

My advice - Dump your portfolio manager.  Open a Robinhood account which has commission free trading.  Put half of your money in index funds.  Put the other half into companies you believe in.  Then hold for a long time.

I've weighed it out before and I've looked into quite a bit and have pondered doing something like that but haven't taken the plunge yet.

I meet with my guy every month I'm home and we compare my portfolios growth with benchmarks across markets and I've been outperforming (after his commision) all of the benchmarks except for some 100% stock funds. 

I just like the piece of mind of having someome look over it and being able to make a move I wouldn't habe either made myself or had the time or internet connection to do when I'm working offshore.

The credit line I have gives me advantages for purchasing real estate as well.

But I'm always open to learning. Do you have some good links in talking about comparing having a portfolio manager and doing it yourself? What ETFs and funds would you say are best to weigh my current portfolios growth against?

Does the amount of money make much of a difference in this outlook as Well? I can't imagine managing the amount of money I have in my portfolio right now, but like I said, id love to learn. 

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3 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

I meet with my guy every month I'm home and we compare my portfolios growth with benchmarks across markets and I've been outperforming (after his commision) all of the benchmarks except for some 100% stock funds. 

damn, sounds like the next peter lynch. now the trick is knowing when he will stop outperforming the market and find the next guy who will. the timing will be critical.

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14 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

damn, sounds like the next peter lynch. now the trick is knowing when he will stop outperforming the market and find the next guy who will. the timing will be critical.

There's been ups and downs since I first started with him, but my annualized ROR (net after fees) since inception has been over 10.5%, which from what I've read is pretty good comparatively. I'm not making a fortune overnight and I don't expect to, just trying to grow my nest egg a good bit over the long term.

But like I said, real estate is my thing, stock market not so much, and I'm more than open to suggestions on how to really dig into my financial reports I have right in front of me and compare my returns (after fees), against portfolios being run with free management software with the same type of asset allocation I have. I could absolutely not be doing as well as I think I am and if that's the case I'm happy to be pointed in the right direction because that just means more money for me.

 

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11 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

I meet with my guy every month I'm home and we compare my portfolios growth with benchmarks across markets and I've been outperforming (after his commision) all of the benchmarks except for some 100% stock funds.

Are you sure he's using the right benchmarks? That's the easiest way to trick someone into thinking they're doing well. 

Also, are you saying you are investing in real estate funds? You'll make more money getting into actual real estate and putting modest sums into whole market funds and ETFs. Hard to understand based on your wording. 

As for managing yourself, you just have to educate yourself. Lots of free info out there. It's not nearly as hard as a fund manager would have you believe. 

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9 hours ago, theJ said:

Are you sure he's using the right benchmarks? That's the easiest way to trick someone into thinking they're doing well. 

Also, are you saying you are investing in real estate funds? You'll make more money getting into actual real estate and putting modest sums into whole market funds and ETFs. Hard to understand based on your wording. 

As for managing yourself, you just have to educate yourself. Lots of free info out there. It's not nearly as hard as a fund manager would have you believe. 

I invest in real estate as in apartment buildings and multi family properties. 

Purchasing my first commercial property next month, hoping I can take that next step into bigger deals.

As for the benchmarks he uses I will take a look and get back to you.

I can also post my asset allocation for my portfolio as well and maybe get some recommendations on which benchmarks would be best to use. 

Just signed up for personal capital, going to see if I discover anything new once I plug it all in. 

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19 hours ago, Pats#1 said:

I invest in real estate as in apartment buildings and multi family properties. 

Purchasing my first commercial property next month, hoping I can take that next step into bigger deals.

As for the benchmarks he uses I will take a look and get back to you.

I can also post my asset allocation for my portfolio as well and maybe get some recommendations on which benchmarks would be best to use. 

Just signed up for personal capital, going to see if I discover anything new once I plug it all in. 

Are you concerned about the new housing bubble?

Case-Shiller-SF-natl5-15.png

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19 hours ago, TVScout said:

Are you concerned about the new housing bubble?

No.

Also, we're only 3 months away from the beginning of 2018.  Shouldn't you find another graph that incorrectly projects a decline out another year?  According to that, we should already be in a spiral.

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5 hours ago, theJ said:

No.

Also, we're only 3 months away from the beginning of 2018.  Shouldn't you find another graph that incorrectly projects a decline out another year?  According to that, we should already be in a spiral.

Real estate will never crash again?

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