BDL 2018 Week 6: Wichita Woodpeckers @ Louisiana Jazz

[Whicker]

BDL 2018 Week 6

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[Whicker]

Wichita Woodpeckers

QB - Jared Goff
RB - Adrian Peterson
WR - Taylor Gabriel
WR - Jordy Nelson
TE - Jared Cook
TE - Greg Olsen
LT - Duane Brown
LG - Quentin Nelson
C - Graham Glasglow
RG - Brett Jones
RT - Jack Conklin

QB - Teddy Bridgewater
RB - Ito Smith
RB - Jordan Willis
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Michael Crabtree
TE - Cameron Brate
OT - Denzelle Good
OT - Julien Davenport

DE - Brandon Graham
DT - Jonathan Allen
DT - A-Shawn Robinson
DE - Olivier Vernon
LB - Luke Kuechly
LB - Haason Reddick
CB - Rashaan Melvin
FS - Harrison Smith
SS - Jabrill Peppers
CB - Sam Shields
NCB - Dre Kirkpatrick

DE - Adrian Clayborn
DE - Alex Okafor
DT - Corey Peters
LB - Raekwon McMillan
CB - Brian Poole
CB - Tre Flowers
CB - Ken Crawley
S - Jaquiski Tartt

 

 

Louisiana Jazz

Offense:

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Sammy Watkins
WR3: Tyler Lockett
TE: Zach Ertz
LT: Russell Okung
LG: Joel Bitonio
C: Ryan Jensen
RG: Connor McGovern
RT: Bobby Massie

RB2: Nyheim Hines
RB3: James White
WR4: Ryan Grant
WR5: Zay Jones
TE2: Virgil Green
OL6: Justin McCray
OL7: Brandon Fusco
OL8: Matt Skura

Defense:

RDE: Jason Pierre-Paul
DT: Jurrell Casey
DT: Sheldon Richardson
LDE: Jabaal Sheard
LB: Vontaze Burfict
LB: Danny Trevathan
RCB: Stephon Gilmore
Slot CB: Chris Harris Jr.
SS: Micah Hyde
FS: Tre Boston
LCB: Kyle Fuller

DL5: Vinny Curry
DL6: Dee Ford
DL7: Johnathan Hankins
DL8: Andrew Billings
LB3: Anthony Barr
CB4: Eli Apple
S3: Patrick Chung
S4: Duron Harmon 

[Whicker]

Wichita Woodpeckers

Offense:
The return of Greg Olsen this week bodes well as we return to our 2 TE set. Why is this important you may ask? Louisiana only typically rolls with 3 LBers, one of them being the much maligned Anthony Barr. With no depth and a weakness in coverage at LBer here are what we are focusing on:

1. Pass to whoever Barr is forced to cover. Whether it be the RB or one of my stellar TEs. There is going to be a chink in the armor somewhere due to the Athletic abilities of my RB and TE package.

2. If a safety is brought in  to help cover one of the TEs, we will use motion to force the safety to cover a larger distance and pull a potential LB (if bracketed) out of position. Louisiana's tendency to play man make this a likely scenario and should get both TEs open frequently.

3. Take advantage of the single deep man. Goff has an arm and can throw WRs open for days against tough secondaries. Gabriel and Nelson will be running deep routes this week. Verticals, posts, slants etc. We will key on which direction Johnson slides and hit the single coverage.  With solid blocking on the edge, and with Glasglow helping Jones with blocking his man inside, there should be no issue handling their pass rush.

4. Utilize the 2 TE set to open up the running game. With the additional blocker on each side of the line and our tendency to use motion to draw a LBer out of position, we will find the open holes on the edge with Peterson and Smith.

Defense:
4-2-5

We will be maintaining our man coverage this week.

Against the pass, Melvin will line up on Thomas, Shields with Watkins and Kirkpatrick with Lockett. Safety coverage deep with Peppers will be shaded towards Lockett to watch the deep ball. Harrison Smith will get to handle Ertz while Kuechly and Reddick spy the RB. If the RB stays in to protect look for additional LB blitzes. Kuechly is stellar at shooting the gap in particular. From time to time Smith will blitz while Kuechly covers Ertz.

With Vernon's return and our stellar pass rushing interior, we look to collapse the pocket this week on Brady, limiting his  time to get to his WRs.

Lastly Smith will be at LBer level this week to help with run defense and to get an extra helmet on Zeke.

 

 

 

Louisiana Jazz

Offense:

We’re coming into this match potentially undermanned on the offensive line so it’s going to be important to get the ball out of Brady’s hands quick and into the hands of our playmakers who will be able to consistently churn out yardage and keep the ball in our possession and clock ticking.

Although they’re starting on the bench, Hines & and in particular, White, will play a huge part in this match and we’ll feature many 2 back sets with both of them, with Brady looking to them. What Wichita opts to do with Zach Ertz is going to have a large bearing on our game plan.

If Wichita opts to put Harrison Smith in coverage against him, we’ll look to hit our WRs who will be in single coverage for the most part and exploit our decisive talent advantage on the outside.

If Kuechly is assigned to Ertz, we’ll look to Hines, White and Elliott often as there won’t be a LBer with Sean Lee out that will be able to adequately cover any of them.

If neither are assigned to Ertz, then Brady will be targeting him all day long and will look to consistently hit those 7-8 yard gains to keep the ball rolling. We know that if Ertz can garner some attention in the middle of the field, it will open things up for Lockett and Watkins on slants and crossing routes who both have the ability to take a short pass the distance. Michael Thomas will eat the no.1 CB for Wichita's lunch, whoever it is. They're all chumps with Talib out. Maybe Brian Moore, who last I heard was a senior accountant at PricewaterhouseCooper sitting his CPA exams.

Although mentioning it last, we certainly aren’t forgetting the running game, in particular against a Wichita defensive front that last week only named 3 starting interior linemen. The rotation of A’Shawn Robinson, Kyle Williams and Jon Allen play on average between the 3 of them about 60% of the snaps of an average interior duo, so on average they’ll be asked to play more snaps in the BDL than they do IRL. This is a recipe for disaster against our OL which specialises in mauling and getting on the front foot with Bitonio and McGovern in particular going to be the focus of leading our line. Elliott will receive the bulk of the carries, although Hines will get a few here and there serving as our change-of-pace back against a spread out Wichita D that will tire from being kept on the field.  

 

Defense:

Firstly, our personnel changes involve the return of Micah Hyde to his starting safety position and Tre Boston who’s quietly putting together a solid season at FS also enters the line-up.

Our focus on D this week is to bring the heat on Goff and to make sure that he’s not given any easy opportunities to hit some quick passes, nor be given the time to progress through his reads and get completions on longer developing routes.

We’re planning to employ a cover 1 this week, with Boston given the higher single safety responsibilities while Hyde, returning from injury will rotate with Chung in playing closer to the LOS – often with TE responsibilities, either on Cook or Olsen depending on who plays.

This week is no exception to what we do in terms of our corner’s man coverage assignments. Chris Harris Jr. will erase Fitzgerald who appears to finally be running out of gas, or Taylor Gabriel if he finds his way into the slot. Gilmore will take whoever lines up on the left for Wichita, while Fuller will take whoever lines up on the right. We’re not overly concerned about the specific matchup, but we do expect our corners to win against a rather limited receiving group.

We intend to bring 7 man boxes to the table quite often to clamp down on a running game which has been struggling in the absence of Leonard Fournette. Goff has had Gurley who he could trust to churn out tough yards & also give him an outlet in the passing game IRL, so in this instance with no reliable receiver in the backfield and a subpar running game behind an interior OL hit by injury, we feel we’ll be able to back Goff up into 3^rd and long situations and tee off against the pass.

On earlier downs we’ll see more of Hankins and Billings in the middle, with Richardson & Casey sliding to the edges to create an almost unstoppable front against the run, while on obvious passing downs we’ll kick Sheard and JPP inside while rotating Dee Ford in to go all out against the pass.

The LBs will have fairly simple jobs for the most part, rotating in and out with Burfict and Barr given the green lights to chase the ball carrier and get after the QB as blitzers quite often, while Trevathan will act as our sideline to sideline LB and keep tabs on the middle of the field and a lookout for the RBs if Wichita tries to get them involved in the running game.

 

[WFLukic]

Also before anyone says anything about "Brian Moore", that was a reference to PR who called Brian Poole, Brian Moore last week. 

Also why is Barr much maligned? He got beat by a WR and Gurley lol in that Rams game. That's hardly embarrassing. I don't think he'd have much problem with a rusty Olsen and Jared Cook's huge 2 catch 10 yard statline lol. 

Did a Wichita starter even score a touchdown this week? Did Brett Jones play a snap?

 

[TedLavie]

I will try do something a little different this week and give my thoughts as I read the gameplan.

Wichita O

lots of pressure on TE/RB to win their matchup. Not sure they do that. Maybe Cook pending on his coverage 

No quick stuff to WR. Lots of pressure on them to win 1vs1 too. Louisiana corners are good not sure they can do that either. Do they have the edge at edge too?

Running game. I still like AP but the interior OL is bad and edge defense of the Jazz is really good vs the run

Jazz D

Dee Ford should start

Second paragraph is interesting. Do they blitz a lot and give themselves a 1vs1 matchup with Brett Jones? Would definitely work 

No mention of 2TE sets so far. Not sure who Hyde covers.

C.Harris out on 2TE sets? Ouch.

Lots of focus on the running game when it is not the strength of Wichita. God that DL on early downs is bad. Goff gonna have all day.

Finally some blitzing. I like it but really that DL. Trevathan role could work well against Wichita TE/RBs in the passing game. 

Summary:

Jazz have the better team but they went after a run first team out of the 3WR formation. Not a pass first, 2TE sets. I don't mind the lack of specifics for 2TE sets as it's obvious Barr would come in, but Harris out on those sets I don't like. Could see Wichita surprise the Jazz here.

Louisiana O

Quick passing game. I like it I could see this OL suffer here.

Why list White as RB3 if he plays a bigger part than Hynes? Not important but still

I like keying on Ertz. Solid plan by Lukic to take advantage of its winning matchups.

Could Zeke getting solid yardage but no big plays. Kuechly makes everyone better.

Wichita D

Lots of pressure on the CBs. Melvin 1vs1 on Thomas ?!

Is Peppers best at sitting in deep zone? That's a bit of a waste imho.

Yep I definitely like Wichita edge here.

Smith in box + Kuechly. That's almost unfair. 

Summary 

Wichita really misses Talib here. Thomas could go off in this one. Watkins too to a smaller degree. Zeke will be limited but the interior OL of Louisiana allows him to get tough yards inside, which will be valuable to move the chains. 

Louisiana 31-26

[PR]

6 hours ago, WFLukic said:

Also before anyone says anything about "Brian Moore", that was a reference to PR who called Brian Poole, Brian Moore last week. 

Also why is Barr much maligned? He got beat by a WR and Gurley lol in that Rams game. That's hardly embarrassing. I don't think he'd have much problem with a rusty Olsen and Jared Cook's huge 2 catch 10 yard statline lol. 

Did a Wichita starter even score a touchdown this week? Did Brett Jones play a snap?

 

It's not Fantasy football.

 

Goff is a whole lot more accurate than Derek Carr and can throw Cook open more often than not. Olsen played quite well this week finding his open lanes so he didn't show the "rust" you said he would.

Besides, you still haven't said how you are covering both TEs. Anthony Barr has been terrible in pass coverage.

[PR]

3 hours ago, TedLavie said:

I will try do something a little different this week and give my thoughts as I read the gameplan.

Wichita O

lots of pressure on TE/RB to win their matchup. Not sure they do that. Maybe Cook pending on his coverage 

No quick stuff to WR. Lots of pressure on them to win 1vs1 too. Louisiana corners are good not sure they can do that either. Do they have the edge at edge too?

Running game. I still like AP but the interior OL is bad and edge defense of the Jazz is really good vs the run

Jazz D

Dee Ford should start

Second paragraph is interesting. Do they blitz a lot and give themselves a 1vs1 matchup with Brett Jones? Would definitely work 

No mention of 2TE sets so far. Not sure who Hyde covers.

C.Harris out on 2TE sets? Ouch.

Lots of focus on the running game when it is not the strength of Wichita. God that DL on early downs is bad. Goff gonna have all day.

Finally some blitzing. I like it but really that DL. Trevathan role could work well against Wichita TE/RBs in the passing game. 

Summary:

Jazz have the better team but they went after a run first team out of the 3WR formation. Not a pass first, 2TE sets. I don't mind the lack of specifics for 2TE sets as it's obvious Barr would come in, but Harris out on those sets I don't like. Could see Wichita surprise the Jazz here.

Louisiana O

Quick passing game. I like it I could see this OL suffer here.

Why list White as RB3 if he plays a bigger part than Hynes? Not important but still

I like keying on Ertz. Solid plan by Lukic to take advantage of its winning matchups.

Could Zeke getting solid yardage but no big plays. Kuechly makes everyone better.

Wichita D

Lots of pressure on the CBs. Melvin 1vs1 on Thomas ?!

Is Peppers best at sitting in deep zone? That's a bit of a waste imho.

Yep I definitely like Wichita edge here.

Smith in box + Kuechly. That's almost unfair. 

Summary 

Wichita really misses Talib here. Thomas could go off in this one. Watkins too to a smaller degree. Zeke will be limited but the interior OL of Louisiana allows him to get tough yards inside, which will be valuable to move the chains. 

Louisiana 31-26

Let's be realistic here. Thomas hasn't went off AND Melvin was the only person who shut Antonio Brown twice last year. If anyone can shut him down, its him.

 

Watkins has had 1 game of over 80 yards on the #1 pass offense, you give the guy too much credit.

[WFLukic]

3 minutes ago, PR said:

Let's be realistic here. Thomas hasn't went off AND Melvin was the only person who shut Antonio Brown twice last year. If anyone can shut him down, its him.

 

Watkins has had 1 game of over 80 yards on the #1 pass offense, you give the guy too much credit.

What? Thomas is averaging over 100 yards a game. 

Melvin played Antonio Brown once last year. He's also been benched this year - he played 7 snaps on the weekend. The guy isn't starting for one of the worst teams in the NFL. It's not gonna be a good time if he's 1v1 against one of the best receivers in the game. 

Watkins is also competing with Hunt, Kelce and Hill for touches. Someone's numbers are going to have to suffer in that offense, and even then, if you exlcude the Denver game in which he got injured early on, he's averaging around 55 yards per game which puts him on pace for 900. That's perfectly fine as the no.3 option in this offense. 

[WFLukic]

3 hours ago, TedLavie said:

I will try do something a little different this week and give my thoughts as I read the gameplan.

Jazz D

Dee Ford should start

C.Harris out on 2TE sets? Ouch.

Out of curiosity, over who? Sheard and JPP are both better against the run and I intend to rotate Ford in a lot anyway. I know you're not JPP's biggest fan, but he's got 5 sacks in 5 games and Sheard's been solid for the past year and a half on a pretty crappy Colts D. 

[TedLavie]

14 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Out of curiosity, over who? Sheard and JPP are both better against the run and I intend to rotate Ford in a lot anyway. I know you're not JPP's biggest fan, but he's got 5 sacks in 5 games and Sheard's been solid for the past year and a half on a pretty crappy Colts D. 

Well you have a point. Ford has been balling this year though, against the run too surprisingly. Good rotation you have there

[PR]

14 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

What? Thomas is averaging over 100 yards a game. 

Melvin played Antonio Brown once last year. He's also been benched this year - he played 7 snaps on the weekend. The guy isn't starting for one of the worst teams in the NFL. It's not gonna be a good time if he's 1v1 against one of the best receivers in the game. 

Watkins is also competing with Hunt, Kelce and Hill for touches. Someone's numbers are going to have to suffer in that offense, and even then, if you exlcude the Denver game in which he got injured early on, he's averaging around 55 yards per game which puts him on pace for 900. That's perfectly fine as the no.3 option in this offense. 

Thomas had 180 yards Week 1. You dont see me touting Jordy Nelson for having a 160 yard game a couple weeks ago.

 

Gareon Conley also rode the bench last weekend. Do you think he also is a terrible corner? This is Gruden not ability.

Watkins is fine and dandy as a #3 WR at averaging 50 yards a game. What is not is that Ted thinking that he is going to have game breaking ability here lol That would mean all of my WRs in four wide sets would be unstoppable lol

 

[Whicker]

I like the "you don't see me touting my WR's big game" right after the "my CB had elite games last year!!"

[Whicker]

Regardless of why you think he got benched, Melvin played 11% of snaps this week. NFL coaches know quite a bit more about their players and football than us amateurs, and if they feel like a guy needs benching, he gets downgraded by me.

It's not just Melvin, either. Sam Shields only played 39% of snaps, and Troy Hill has started over him this week and last. That's from a coach who is one of the consensus best, too.

I just think the Louisiana offense is a little too much for the Wichita secondary. Wichita will have success with its 2 TE offense for sure. I think they beat Louisiana O-line on some plays but the inverse is true as well. Both running games are well contained. I just can't get past how much pressure PR puts on his CBs when they just haven't been good.

[Ragnarok]

Unfortunately for Wichita, Melvin(like Conley) got benched this week.  With no safety help, Michael Thomas will have a field day.

Also, as far as I can tell Brett Jones hasn't played an offensive snap in 3 weeks.  Conklin has also not been the same this year.  I don't see the right side of their OL holding up at all.  

Wichita's weapons are looking much better than they did week 1, but I think Louisiana gets a more consistent run game and makes more big plays in the pass game.

[Xmad]

Wichita just runs into a brick wall with all the issue in the secondary and along the o-line.