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Marcus Mariota: Is it Time ??


FutureIsWhite

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Mariota and the offense basically started playing better the second we got a running game this year. Can we win throwing 35 times a game with little help in the ground game?

That's not the way the LaFleur offensive formula is designed, but there are gonna be times when the running game doesn't work, like the Eagles game, and he's going to have to replicate that success.

Or is it not Mariota, and is LaFleurs offense only successful when the running game works? It is very run-balanced and play-action centric. If the run is shut down can he get the passing game going on it's own?

 

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4 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

I think on the TNF game with the Panthers they said Cam Newton has only missed 3 games in his career due to injuries. I'd love that from Marcus.

Yeah. I've repeatedly said my only real issue with Marcus long term is health. Doesn't matter how good he is or isn't if he keeps getting hurt.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000988807/article/marcus-mariota-100-million-man-plus-leveon-bells-value

Sums it up pretty well. He's been a tier 3 QB who's been able to perform at a tier 2 level from time to time. The last two games aren't something we haven't seen before; just something he doesn't do consistently.

He'll get the money because you can still win games with him and you're not going to be able to replace him. Hopefully with improved weapons and consistency with the coaching staff he gets in that tier 2 level more often.

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Since the bye week, Mariota has gone 61-85 (71.2 comp %), 705 yards (235/game), 5:1 TD:Int ratio, 111 QB rating, and an additional 91 yards and 1 TD on the ground... that's a total yardage average of 265 yards and 2 TDs. 

If he keeps this modest rate going (the past 3 games), he'll end up the season with 278-401 (69.4 comp %), 3141 yards (225/game), 19:7 ratio, 101.1 QB rating, and 450 yards and 4 TDs on the ground... Just short of 3600 total yards (not counting receiving yards), a total of 23 TDs and career highs in completion %, total yards/game, and QB rating.  

That's based on him continuing the effective, but modest rate he's been at the past 3 games.  If he continues improving and plays to the level he did during that impressive stretch in '16, he ends up with 3312 yards on 279-415 (67.2%), 25 TDs and 8 Ints, a 103.4 QB rating, and 447/4 on the ground... stretch.

... and that's pretty damn close to my preseason predictions of him this year... 3750 total yards and 29 total TDs... I predicted 4000 total yards and 30 TDs.  Not bad for a guy who played a good chunk of the year with nerve damage on his throwing hand.  

If he keeps this up and gets us to the playoffs again... I see a pretty significant extension coming this offseason... I seriously see Luck/Carr money... 5 years/125M with about 75M guaranteed.  

I guess that kinda finish would placate the Mariota doubters/detractors... but it's going to be much richer than some of you want... so you better buckle your seatbelts ladies and gents... 

 

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I mean if he continues the replicate his two game success he would have a great year. That has never been the issue. 

The issue is he never plays at that level consistently.

The last two weeks are promising, but not going to change anyone's mind until he proves he can do that week in and week out.

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Not never... It's not unprecedented with him... Had an 8 game stretch in 2016 with 23 tds, averaging just under 290/game (total scores and yards) . That happened in the middle of his first season in that new exotic smash mouth offense of '16. 

He's about half way through his first year in Lafleur's offense now... And Lafleur himself seems to have hit his own groove. 

This mini stretch he's been more efficient (better completion %, int rate), but is short about a TD/game so far... Averaging 2 total tds per game (and 265 y/g) these past 3 games vs just under 3 tds per game during that '16 stretch. 

After playing tough defenses almost on a weekly basis in the first half of the season, we're hitting the soft stretch of defenses on our schedule, making this kinda run entirely possible. 

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An interesting thing to me is another QB that LaFleur coached was in a somewhat similar situation as Mariota is now. That QB being Matt Ryan.

Back in 2015, many questioned just how good Ryan truly was. Similar to Mariota, many thought he was not an elite QB but also not bad enough to get a replacement for (the infamous "Alex Smith" tier of QB). Up to that point he had a 4.5 TD% and a 2.4 INT% (Mariota at this point in his career is at 4.4 TD% and 2.6 INT%). In his first year under Shanahan/LaFleur, Ryan was pretty mediocre (66 comp.%/21 TDs/16 INTs), leading to all the questions about him as a QB.

Fast forward a year later, and boom he explodes for his MVP year in his 2nd year under Shanahan and LaFleur. I also want to point out that all this happened in Ryan's 8th and 9th season when he was 30 and 31 years old.

I say all this to say that I believe Mariota could see a similar path to his career. I said this in the Mariota expectation thread...

"Honestly, I don't know if he'll have the eye popping bulk stats in year 1. I believe it'll be much better than last year but nothing that'll make folks jump back on the Mariota bandwagon. I'm thinking his efficiency will be much improved though (less TOs, better completion %, better 3rd down conversion rate, ect.) .

If LaFleur stays for year 2, I think that's when his bulk stats will explode along with his efficiency."

.. And I think we're seeing/going to see it play out like this.

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I really hope it becomes a trend and not a fluke, but it's not something I'd be ready to bet on just yet. My bias always wants me to be optimistic, so I try to avoid that.

The offense is really quite hard to figure out. Even when we couldn't score any points, we were able to move the ball. I honestly feel like we've been better at avoiding 3 and outs than in the last couple years when our offense wasn't as bad. At one point we were 30th in scoring and 3rd in time of possession. 

So maybe we have been close to clicking all year and couldn't put it together enough to finish drives, but now we're seeing them put it together. I really hope it's that simple.

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