Marcus Mariota: Is it Time ??

[ragevsuall17]

If it was someone else's comment, I can't say one way or another.  If its the hyperbole I mentioned, it was that more than half the sacks were attributed directly to Mariota.  I acknowledged Mariota's high completion percentage was somewhat linked to him not throwing the ball away and taking a sack instead... I even posted an article which focused on this issue... the article focused on Rodgers' numbers (not Maritota's), but still drove that point home.   

It's clear to most of us that Mariota lost trust out there... whether that be him, or the OL, the WRs, the system... whatever... although its highly likely a combination of all those factors. 

His injuries... The interior of the OL was giving up quick pressures... Conklin was all the way back... the receivers had a case of the drops early on... it took a few players longer to catch on to the new system.  He lost his security blanket in Walker... some of us went as far as wonder if that would help him improve, as he'd have to look at other options since he's always relied on Walker so much.  Etc... a lot of factors. 

And I hope everyone realizes it wasn't only sacks.  Yes, he took the most sacks of his career... yes... the sack % was double what it had been the past couple of seasons.  But he also rushed more often than he has in his career.  While the number only increased by a few carries... the % is more significant (seeing as he played far less this year than he had the past couple of seasons).  Mariota rushed on 14.6% of his chances. He had previously been around 11% the previous 2 seasons.  Combine his rush attempts and his sacks... and Mariota did not throw the ball 24.3% of the time he didn't hand the ball off.  Previously, that % had been 16.3, 15.5, and 16.1.   So just because he wasn't "hit" doesn't mean he wasn't pressured.  He could have been hit after he got back to the LOS. 

year total opportunities pass attempts sacks runs combined runs and sacked attempts % sacks % % w/out runs runs % 2015 442 370 83.7% 38 8.6% 9.3% 34 7.7% 16.3% 2016 534 451 84.5% 23 4.3% 4.9% 60 11.2% 15.5% 2017 540 453 83.9% 27 5.0% 5.6% 60 11.1% 16.1% 2018 437 331 75.7% 42 9.6% 11.3% 64 14.6% 24.3%

[ragevsuall17]

Seeing as Smith is not a LaFleur guy, per se... I wonder how much he brings back some Mularkey principles.  Again, remember that not all of us were gung ho about firing Mularkey last year (had he accepted to cut ties with Robiskie). 

The biggest challenge/opportunity facing Smith is combining all these different principles that he's been assisting the past few seasons.  If he can somehow get Mariota to trust the protection, and apply some of those route concepts from last year... I think that's the winning combo.  Keep play action, keep 2 TE sets (if that's the strength), etc...

The opportunity for success is definitely there... but it's going to be a challenge.  It appears Smith was pretty instrumental in assisting LaFleur and coaches before him... hopefully he can find a guy or 2 that can do that for him now. 

[TitanSS]

@ragevsuall17 It was a reference to anyone who basically said he took a few more sacks than he needed to, but that I and others who made the claim had blown it completely out of proportion. In regards to when you said it, I believe it was because I said he took a sack on the majority of his pressures in the Ravens game and cited Geoff Schwartz saying it on Twitter, but as I'm typing this I can tell you that I misspoke. Schwartz' actual tweet said that Mariota was hit 11 times and sacked 11 times in the Ravens game, not pressured 11 times and sacked 11 times as I stated.

I wasn't making anything up that I didn't mean to be taken seriously. I simply misquoted someone and couldn't find the tweet afterwards. Even so, I believe Mariota was pressured 21 times and sacked 11 times so even that wasn't technically incorrect lol, but not what I actually meant when thinking of Schwartz' comment. I don't believe I have ever said that the majority of the sacks over the course of the season are on Mariota, although I believe I attributed potentially 5 or 6 of them at least partially on him against the Ravens if that is what you are referencing.

Although I seriously doubt the number of designed runs is higher than previous years, I'd be curious as to how much that affects the statistics. Either way, I think the quote "Combine his rush attempts and his sacks... and Mariota did not throw the ball 24.3% of the time he didn't hand the ball off" goes hand in hand with Herndon's quote that "the Titans quarterback’s response to targets not being open in 2018 was too often a panicked scramble that landed him in harm’s way". Many of us felt like he was quicker to drop his eyes and try to run than we have ever seen him. I've mentioned several times that I think he does well when he actually throws the ball, but it just felt like he wasn't willing to stand in the pocket last year. To me, the WRs were more open than in any year under Mularkey. The OL was definitely worse and I think it potentially had him on edge.

Edited January 22, 2019 by TitanSS

[ragevsuall17]

4 hours ago, TitanSS said:

Either way, I think the quote "Combine his rush attempts and his sacks... and Mariota did not throw the ball 24.3% of the time he didn't hand the ball off" goes hand in hand with Herndon's quote that "the Titans quarterback’s response to targets not being open in 2018 was too often a panicked scramble that landed him in harm’s way". Many of us felt like he was quicker to drop his eyes and try to run than we have ever seen him.

I think we all definitely agree on that.  I think we saw a qb who didn't trust what was in front of him.  Something messed his internal clock up.  It could have been the elbow... he just didn't trust himself to make a throw, didn't want to get hit on the elbow and make it worse... so he panicked and became a runner (sacked or ran).  Maybe the key drops early in the season played over in his head... and although that problem went away as the season progressed, maybe he never fully trusted most of the WRs (losing Walker and Matthews early plays a part of that).  Maybe he didn't trust his line to give him enough time to throw the ball... he heard footsteps, even when they weren't near him.

Again, probably a combo of all those.  But bottom line, you can't have a QB that doesn't trust himself and/or his teammates out there.  Smith has his hands full designing and trying to get this offense together.  But O'Hara has just as important a job fixing this with Mariota.  If he can't get Mariota to trust everything around him on that field, then there's no helping him.  But as much as keeping Smith for some semblance of consistency, maybe O'Hara is just as important in that aspect. 

There's still plenty of good, even the past couple of statistically down seasons.  He's still an amazing leader who can will his team to victory... he fires his team up like the best of them (KC block, Jax stiff arm, NYG block, the TD catch vs the Pats, etc).  This team, not just the offensive guys, love playing with him.  His accuracy was great this year... even if he didn't test it as much as we wanted him to.  But it's hard not to like what we saw even on those deep passes, the deep one completions, but also the drops by Taylor, Jennings, and Williams for example... his accuracy overall just looks improved. 

The Titans did a good job last offseason of putting the best offensive weapons around him... unfortunately losses to 2 of those biggest assets hit us bad.  Barring something crazy again this year, he should be surrounded by a very talented team... Davis took a step forward and is ready to break out... Walker should be back at his usual dependable self... Jonnu showed signs of things finally clicking for him... Henry was a beast to end the season and is playing for a new contract... sign just one more dependable WR and this offense should have the weapons to pop.  All eyes are on Smith to get the offense together, but as much of the onus falls on Mariota and O'Hara to get him clicking with everyone around him. 

[deeluxx3]

I’m already ready for September. Gonna be a long offseason 

[deeluxx3]

Had a legit nightmare last night 

 

I dreamt that I met Mike Vrabel and was talking to him and he tells me that he hates Marcus and was criticizing his work ethic

 

cold sweats

[ragevsuall17]

I had mentioned Mariota's accuracy deep a few days back... and now I found some data to back that up... from Music City Miracles.

I could post the stats from it, but you probably need to explanation in the article to make sense of it.  Bottom line is his deep ball accuracy has progressed every year from: 2015: 45.9%, 2016: 43.6%, 2017: 62.4% (2nd in the NFL), 2018: 61.7% (full stats aren't available to rank).  Even though last year accuracy % is lower than 2017, the stat has been adjusted from including all passes 16+ yards downfield to 21+ yards downfield this season.  It's a good report (although not all good... for instance, his accuracy throwing into deep open windows and his deep accuracy when facing pressure took severe hits this season:)
 

Quote

 

Now, Mariota’s 50.0% accuracy on throws into Tight Windows (T. Windows) actually isn’t far off from his 50.7% accuracy in 2017, which ranked fifth among all quarterbacks. This is incredible considering last year’s ranking included throws of 16-20 air yards. His accuracy into Open Windows (O. Windows, 58.33%) is glaring, and is a giant step down from his 92.3% accuracy percentages in that area in 2017. His 37.5% accuracy percentage against pressure is a significant downgrade from his 71.4% percentage in 2017, which ranked second.

Still, his accuracy overall looks pretty solid, and his accuracy on throws of 41+ yards (66.67%) in particular stands out. 16.57% of his passing yards resulted in yards after the catch, and no I don’t know where that ranks yet until I chart every quarterback.

So even with several bad misses, Mariota’s downfield accuracy looked fine to me. I’m told Pro Football Focus said he was the most accurate downfield passer of 2018, though my numbers obviously differ from there’s.

 

 

 

 

[quiller]

To me these type of stats regarding pressure sacks hits and finding the blame is so difficult  i just don’t automatically blame QB OL  

In my mind i always think of it as a balance between OL-play call-QB and how the D plays the play.   This if the rush is constantly making the QB move off his spot before It is time to throw the ball to a WR then either the WR’s are not get open as expected or the routes are taking too long developing or the OL failed to block it right or the D blitzed and we failed to pick up the blitz or the blitz was not expected   If all that is happening on a regular basis then I expect the QB is going to develop happy feet and not be willing to go through all the progressions and be exiting the pocket a lot more often then the norm.    

[KingTitan]

Just another point of view with stats. 

[TitanSS]

You ever read something and think you might cry a little?

"The fact that Matt Hasselbeck still holds the “Titans Era” single season passing record at 3,571 yards is a perfect representation of those struggles. In 2018 alone, 17 NFL quarterbacks beat that mark including a rookie who didn’t become a starter until Week 4 (Baker Mayfield) and the immortal Case Keenum. Only four franchises have failed to have a single 4,000 yard passer over the past 20 years — the Titans, Jets, Browns, and Bears — and the Titans have the lowest “best season” of that group."

https://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2019/1/28/18165116/titans-offseason-roster-breakdown-wide-receivers

In the last two seasons combined the Titans have 30 TD passes. In 2018, 9 QBs had that many or more. Mayfield was 3 shy and he didn't even start 4 games.

As noted in the article above, successfully throwing the ball is the stat with the highest correlation to winning the in the NFL. We have been an outlier occasionally winning with defense and running the ball. Dark times we live in.

Edited February 3, 2019 by TitanSS

[deeluxx3]

It is a pathetic stat and a pathetic thing to read 

 

but we don’t throw the ball. We just don’t and won’t do it for some reason 

[TitanRedd]

1 hour ago, deeluxx3 said:

It is a pathetic stat and a pathetic thing to read 

 

but we don’t throw the ball. We just don’t and won’t do it for some reason 

To be honest I believed our intentions were to open the passing game up this yr, but do to the injuries at TE, QB our 2nd best WR quitting on the team & our 2 best #3 receivers constantly hurt, sharpe & Taylor it wasn’t going to look pretty. Keep in mind new offense as a learning curve 

[615finest]

 

 

[deeluxx3]

52 minutes ago, 615finest said:

 

 

I always like looking at these threads -- and they really do show how skilled Marcus really is. But for the past two years now the tone has shifted from "future MVP candidate" to "look, he's actually a good QB I swear!"

 

Marcus needs to stay healthy and we need to cater our offense to him. He's a guy that could easily put up 30+ TD a years, we just have to finally give him the opportunity to (and he needs to physically give himself the opportunity to)

[615finest]

2 minutes ago, deeluxx3 said:

I always like looking at these threads -- and they really do show how skilled Marcus really is. But for the past two years now the tone has shifted from "future MVP candidate" to "look, he's actually a good QB I swear!"

 

Marcus needs to stay healthy and we need to cater our offense to him. He's a guy that could easily put up 30+ TD a years, we just have to finally give him the opportunity to (and he needs to physically give himself the opportunity to)

Yea I love these threads and I definitely can agree with you, we definetly need to play too his strength. I feel like maybe adding some more weight could possibly help him stay healthy for the duration of the season.