Checking in with Trubisky

[Superman(DH23)]

@JustAnotherFan so Trubiskys 57 yard dime to Taylor Gabriel that set up what should have been the clinching TD wasnt a big play? The fact you said that he didnt play well against Tampa is mind blowing.  Even this week in his "bad" game he put up 414 yards and 3 TDs.  I'm sorry but in none of the losses can any person with any sort of objectivity look and say the Bears lost bc of Trubisky in any game this season.  He has led an offense that scored 48, 28, and 31 points the last 3 weeks.  C'mon man give the kid some credit.  We have never seen anything like this as Bears fans.

[blkwdw13]

7 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

@JustAnotherFan so Trubiskys 57 yard dime to Taylor Gabriel that set up what should have been the clinching TD wasnt a big play? The fact you said that he didnt play well against Tampa is mind blowing.  Even this week in his "bad" game he put up 414 yards and 3 TDs.  I'm sorry but in none of the losses can any person with any sort of objectivity look and say the Bears lost bc of Trubisky in any game this season.  He has led an offense that scored 48, 28, and 31 points the last 3 weeks.  C'mon man give the kid some credit.  We have never seen anything like this as Bears fans.

The troubling part is that every loss can be pointed at the defense, it's almost like after they got Mack the game plans went out the window because this isn''t the same defense as last season and the only difference is Mack.

[WindyCity]

I just feel like we are moving the goal posts on Trubisky.

In weeks 1-3 everyone wanted to see production and they wanted to see big games and multiple TDs. That is what he has done, but now it needs to be this or that.

He did what we wanted him to. He took a step.


Now we can re set the target, but it does not seem fair to retroactively change what we wanted over these 3 games.

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Do you have these numbers?

Yes I do. Feel free to go back and chart the games for yourself. I went back and did it again this year  to be sure after I kept seeing all of these ridiculous comparisons and turns out these numbers below stand true.

This whole comparing Mitch to Goff needs to stop. He is no where near Goff's level at this point.

Jared Goff through 6 games last year

Week	Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	QBR	Rk	Pass	Yards	EYds	TD	FK	FL	INT	C%	DPI	ALEX
6	T.Brady	NE	656	1	652	1	28.70%	3	28.50%	70	4	249	1,864	2,218	13	2	2	2	65.70%	4/95	1.9
6	A.Smith	KC	651	2	581	2	37.00%	1	31.90%	65.5	6	211	1,513	1,973	12	0	0	0	73.30%	1/20	-0.6
6	D.Brees	NO	428	3	474	3	23.90%	4	27.70%	54.5	11	186	1,285	1,564	10	1	0	2	69.60%	0/0	-2.7
6	D.Watson	HOU	424	4	446	4	23.50%	5	25.20%	80.7	1	186	1,216	1,569	15	1	1	4	62.20%	7/151	2.4
6	C.Keenum	MIN	417	5	403	6	29.30%	2	27.90%	64.6	7	163	1,091	1,398	5	0	0	1	64.20%	4/93	0
6	C.Wentz	PHI	371	7	349	8	15.00%	9	13.40%	70.6	3	226	1,473	1,648	13	3	2	3	60.90%	3/93	3.7
6	J.Goff	LARM	371	6	345	10	18.90%	7	16.80%	50.5	15	193	1,419	1,498	8	2	1	3	60.30%	3/38	0.2
6	P.Rivers	LACH	352	8	414	5	12.20%	13	16.30%	42.4	22	237	1,579	1,696	10	0	1	5	61.60%	6/102	0.7
6	A.Rodgers	GB	337	9	297	12	12.20%	12	9.50%	62.7	8	212	1,249	1,615	13	0	1	3	66.30%	6/65	3.1
6	K.Cousins	WAS	328	10	365	7	18.70%	8	22.10%	67.5	5	168	1,256	1,329	9	2	2	2	66.50%	1/25	1.5

Mitchell Trubisky through 6 games this year

Week	Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	QBR	Rk	Pass	Yards	EYds	TD	FK	FL	INT	C%	DPI	ALEX
7	P.Mahomes	KC	924	1	880	2	43.10%	1	40.60%	84.9	1	261	2,178	2,628	22	2	0	5	65.20%	2/42	4.4
7	D.Brees	NO	828	2	909	1	42.70%	2	48.00%	82.9	2	229	1,799	2,365	13	0	0	0	77.30%	5/73	-1.3
7	P.Rivers	LAC	786	3	766	4	42.00%	3	40.60%	79.7	4	229	1,947	2,262	17	0	0	3	69.10%	0/0	0.7
7	M.Ryan	ATL	702	4	853	3	28.50%	6	37.00%	71.6	7	283	2,190	2,385	15	1	1	2	71.40%	4/101	-0.5
7	J.Goff	LAR	696	5	671	5	33.30%	5	31.60%	80.3	3	231	2,046	2,212	14	3	0	4	69.70%	4/93	-0.4
7	J.Flacco	BAL	455	6	384	8	10.70%	7	7.30%	58.1	17	313	2,005	2,294	11	2	1	4	62.30%	5/91	3.1
7	K.Cousins	MIN	394	7	312	11	7.30%	12	3.50%	66.6	9	321	2,010	2,257	14	2	5	3	70.20%	1/3	0.2
7	R.Fitzpatrick	TB	385	8	396	6	33.80%	4	35.00%	74.5	6	136	1,314	1,216	11	1	0	5	67.40%	1/15	3.1
7	T.Brady	NE	368	9	393	7	9.90%	9	11.30%	74.7	5	259	1,810	1,914	16	1	2	7	68.30%	3/68	4.2
7	A.Rodgers	GB	366	10	349	10	10.20%	8	9.30%	55.8	19	271	1,825	1,876	12	1	3	1	62.70%	2/42	1.1
7	B.Roethlisberger	PIT	362	11	363	9	8.90%	10	8.90%	67.9	8	270	1,963	1,951	12	1	2	6	65.10%	4/55	0.7
7	D.Carr	OAK	303	12	167	19	7.00%	13	-1.10%	43.5	26	247	1,687	1,755	7	0	2	8	72.60%	2/30	1.3
7	M.Stafford	DET	271	13	301	12	7.50%	11	9.50%	59.4	15	222	1,535	1,540	12	1	1	5	67.90%	4/63	1.3
7	A.Dalton	CIN	258	14	283	13	3.50%	17	4.90%	61.1	13	271	1,705	1,766	15	1	1	7	63.80%	6/95	1.5
7	C.Newton	CAR	230	15	278	15	5.20%	16	8.60%	59.3	16	217	1,352	1,449	11	2	0	4	66.50%	1/16	1.8
7	A.Luck	IND	222	16	184	18	-0.80%	21	-2.60%	61.2	12	322	1,836	2,036	20	2	1	8	65.70%	5/107	-0.5
7	C.Wentz	PHI	222	17	278	14	5.20%	15	9.30%	60.8	14	211	1,374	1,388	10	1	4	1	71.50%	3/77	0.9
7	D.Watson	HOU	198	18	216	16	0.90%	20	1.90%	54.1	20	264	1,788	1,605	10	5	1	7	64.40%	3/84	0.6
7	M.Trubisky	CHI	187	19	194	17	1.10%	19	1.60%	66.5	10	224	1,500	1,479	13	1	2	6	66.20%	5/87	1.2
7	R.Wilson	SEA	155	20	111	22	2.50%	18	-1.30%	48.5	22	181	1,174	1,120	13	3	1	3	65.80%	1/10	1.6
7	J.Winston	TB	133	21	59	23	5.30%	14	-3.90%	64.7	11	121	856	830	5	1	1	6	69.60%	1/14	2.9
7	C.Keenum	DEN	122	22	25	24	-4.20%	22	-9.70%	42.4	28	271	1,733	1,570	8	3	0	8	63.40%	5/61	1.3
7	E.Manning	NYG	52	23	123	21	-8.30%	24	-4.30%	43.1	27	292	1,885	1,523	7	2	2	4	69.00%	3/55	-1.9
7	A.Smith	WAS	50	24	133	20	-7.50%	23	-1.20%	47.7	23	209	1,285	1,154	7	4	1	2	64.60%	3/37	1.5
7	B.Bortles	JAX	2	25	1	25	-11.00%	25	-11.10%	47.5	24	264	1,672	1,405	9	2	1	7	60.60%	0/0	-0.3
7	J.Garoppolo	SF	-57	26	-46	26	-19.70%	27	-18.10%	32.4	33	103	617	459	5	3	0	3	59.60%	3/53	-1.9
7	R.Tannehill	MIA	-80	27	-63	27	-20.20%	29	-18.30%	33	32	140	873	604	8	1	3	5	66.40%	1/12	1.8
7	D.Prescott	DAL	-97	28	-95	28	-17.90%	26	-17.70%	53.5	21	229	1,281	1,030	8	0	2	4	62.10%	2/18	-0.4
7	S.Darnold	NYJ	-130	29	-173	30	-20.00%	28	-22.90%	35.7	30	237	1,450	1,005	10	0	1	10	56.40%	1/5	1.5
7	M.Mariota	TEN	-140	30	-185	32	-23.70%	30	-27.70%	55.9	18	170	917	708	3	3	0	5	66.00%	3/41	2.7
7	C.J.Beathard	SF	-170	31	-183	31	-28.30%	32	-29.60%	44.8	25	156	941	565	7	1	3	7	62.40%	1/6	-1.3
7	J.Rosen	ARI	-206	32	-284	33	-34.00%	33	-42.50%	35.6	31	141	724	446	3	1	2	5	55.50%	3/33	0.1
7	B.Mayfield	CLE	-214	33	-146	29	-27.90%	31	-22.60%	39.6	29	205	1,174	735	6	1	2	5	58.10%	2/48	-0.5
7	J.Allen	BUF	-497	34	-488	34	-62.20%	34	-61.20%	29.5	34	162	657	105	2	3	0	5	54.00%	1/20	1.5

 

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Green Bay: Drives the team down the field that with any defensive pulse wins the game.

14 plays 61 yards, chewed up 6:30. Trubisky converts 2 3rd downs [1 passing, 1 running]

Miami: Defense allows a long TD to tie the game and Mitch goes right down the field and scores a TD to take the lead.

11 plays, 69 yards, kills 5:51 off the clock Mitch goes 3/5, 47 yards, TD

Miami: Is driving them down the field for a game winning FG when Cohen fumbles at midfield.

Mitch goes 3/3 25 yards.

New England: Down 2 scores he goes right down the field and scores a TD to make it a one score game.

5/6, 53 yards, TD

 

In all 3 loses Trubisky has led key 4th quarter drives to put the Bears in a position to win the game [GB and Miami] and to give them a chance to win [NE]. Those are big drives that did not win the game because defense and special teams **** the bed.

 

Again, you're conveniently ignoring his mishaps on previous drives that led to those outcomes(i.e down 2 scores due to his own failures --NE) and his overall ineffectiveness for the majority of the GB game in which he was largely trash after the scripted plays that kept the defense on the field. We had a 20 point lead at the half and Mitch left alot of yards and points on the field in that game---including a wide open Burton in end zone, over-throwing Robinson in the EZ, the butt fumble and a game sealing sack fumble with 1 minute left down 1 point (even after getting lucky penalty on a 4th down to keep the drive alive prior to that when Matthews close lined him).

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

In 2/3 of the wins he has not done a lot.

Against TB he was incredible.

I would say right now he is 

3/6 making a major contribution to the game [TB, Miami, GB] *Was not great against GB, but based on the context the FG drive should have been enough.

1/6 Push [NE]

2/6 Along for the ride [Sea, AZ]

 I almost agree with this. I would say that he is 2/6 overall. He contributed to one win[TB] and one loss[MIA]. 

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, Superman(DH23) said:

@JustAnotherFan so Trubiskys 57 yard dime to Taylor Gabriel that set up what should have been the clinching TD wasnt a big play? The fact you said that he didnt play well against Tampa is mind blowing.  Even this week in his "bad" game he put up 414 yards and 3 TDs.  I'm sorry but in none of the losses can any person with any sort of objectivity look and say the Bears lost bc of Trubisky in any game this season.  He has led an offense that scored 48, 28, and 31 points the last 3 weeks.  C'mon man give the kid some credit.  We have never seen anything like this as Bears fans.

The fact that you think I ever said such a thing is even more mind blowing.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 hours ago, SLCbear said:

 

There will always be haters, that’s just the way it is. Hating dudes marry hating women and have hating *** kids

If you want fluff then block me now because I guarantee you're not ever going to get it from me. I call a spade a spade and won't sugarcoat anything.

[Nads786]

2 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said:

If you want fluff then block me now because I guarantee you're not ever going to get it from me. I call a spade a spade and won't sugarcoat anything.

Aren't you a packers fan?

[JAF-N72EX]

42 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I just feel like we are moving the goal posts on Trubisky.

In weeks 1-3 everyone wanted to see production and they wanted to see big games and multiple TDs. That is what he has done, but now it needs to be this or that.

He did what we wanted him to. He took a step.


Now we can re set the target, but it does not seem fair to retroactively change what we wanted over these 3 games.

Nobody is moving any goal posts. We wanted to see improvement and we got it. HOWEVER, going from terrible to just average is not enough in this league. Especially when the goal is to win a SB in the next 3 years.

[JAF-N72EX]

1 minute ago, Nads786 said:

Aren't you a packers fan?

Wait.....what?!

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Nobody is moving any goal posts. We wanted to see improvement and we got it. HOWEVER, going from terrible to just average is not enough in this league. Especially when the goal is to win a SB in the next 3 years.

For 6 games, in a new system, it is a pretty good start.

The question will be if he can move from the middle of the pack closer to the top 10 over the next 6 games.

 

[WindyCity]

Clearly the advanced stats do not support a Goff vs Trubisky comparison.

The basic stats do support it.

I tend to lean towards the advanced stats as a view on efficiency, and we know that Trubisky has not been very efficient to this point.

Unfortunately, the comparison is made even more difficult by the fact that they are only based on passing. Which favors Goff and hurts Trubisky because Goff cannot run and Trubisky is the #1 ranked running QB in the NFL. The numbers above only capture part of Trubisky's positive impact and they do not punish Goff.

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

For 6 games it is a pretty good start.

 

Only stat that matters is W and L's, but Bears are 6th in league at 28.3 pts. per game right now.

Everybody would have took that sight unseen in off season.  Warts and all.  And you can be homer or hater, there are obviously warts.  They have left points on field in most their games so far.   

Still 16.5 per game last year vs. 28.3 this year.  Almost double so far.  

I'll say again. Next year you have an Allen Robinson 2 years removed from ACL, usually the benchmark.  You have a 2nd year Miller.  You have every body else plus a healthy Shaheen in 2nd year.   Okay someone will get hurt, but point is its everybody's 2nd year, your no. 1 will ostensibly be better, plus a whole 2nd offseason, plus hopefully a few weeks where these guys get together and work on their own.

You will have a Roquan Smith with a full offseason and no BS from draft hold out and other off field crap.   Bilal Nichols will probably add 15 lbs of muscle and be much better at technique after a full year of Hicks teaching who has taken him under his wing.   Khalil Mack will be there in off season leading these guys.  

Option routes will be there next year.  In 80s and 90s big high school programs would start training their option QBs at 12.  Because it took that long for them to just get the feel of it and be really good.  Even when they didn't and just went with best athlete they repped it a 1000x each practice.  

Options of any type are muscle and brain memory.  It takes 1000s and 1000s of reps.   It isn't just memorizing plays or watching film.   And with receivers its both QB and WR making same read at virtually same time.  Is it hard? For WR, not really.  Guy inside go outside, guy outside go inside, man I run, zone I sit.  But in a split second it can be difficult.  And QB has to know more than that.  He has to know what coverage safeties and corners are in and trust they have reacted way they are supposed to to the passing concept. So some jackoff doesn't come out of your field of vision and pick the ball while you are staring at your read.   All in 3 secs or less.  That is hard.  

Also, scramble drills WRs and QB  have to know where to be and where to go relative to each other.  GB and Pitts probably do it 1x a week at least because they know its going to happen.  NE probably doesn't do it much, because Brady is on schedule or probably throwing ball away.  With Belichick you can bet its still something they do every once in awhile.  It's a feel thing that has to practiced.  Something the Bears probably haven't had time to work on much with learning whole new offense and working on their options.  

Only so many hours in a day and doing too much brings diminishing returns.  Next year there will be time for little details like that.

Everything could go to hell in a 100 different ways, but on paper 2019 looks really good.  This is a team that can contend next year.  

 

 

 

[Superman(DH23)]

15 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

End of which games--losses or wins? I'm asking this because I'm starting to feel like people are not reading my initial post that they're responding too &/or reading it wrong. 

2 of 3 our wins have come down to key plays made late in games and we still won in spite of Mitch (SEA, ARI). The Bucs game--I can't say anything about that other than it wasn't Micth who played very good but the defense also shut em down as well.

The point I was making was, not only have we have not seen any play made from Mitch that make you go "WOW" (late in games, during losses), but even in our 3 wins I still feel like we would've still won with ANY average QB. 

That is exactly what you said.  No wow moments in the losses (which is a load of crap) and he didnt play well in the Tampa game, it was the defense.  Windy is right you are really moving the goalposts big time.  He has 15 TDs in 6 games.  Even if you take away the 6 TD performance (which people doing that is another load of crap) that's still 9 in 5 anyway you slice it, that's a 30 TD pace, from a 2nd year qb who has 6 games in the most complicated system in the NFL.  No that is not avg QB play.  And if you think an avg QB could have done what he has this year, you are out of your mind.

Still got live for you JAF

[beardown3231]

Another thing that was helping Goff (and moving forward) was his running game to take the pressure off. In Goff's second year, LA was averaging 122.1 rush yards per game (8th in football) and were averaging 4.3 yards per carry (3rd in football) by the time the season ended.

If you take out Trubisky's running this year through 6 games, the Bears would be averaging 89.8 rushing yards per game (26th in football) and 3.8 ypc (28th in football).

Now, that's with no rushing help from the QB, so let's input Goff's for the Bears. If you input his 20 carries and 55 rushing yards, the Bears would be averaging 99 yards per game (22nd in football) but their ypc as a team would drop to 3.7 (30th in football).

I'm not trying to pick a fight, but again, it seems some fans are finding every reason to find errors in his game. He played 13 college games. What did you expect 18 games in? Like someone else said, this is a 2019 thing. If he's still missing 3 or 4 open receivers every game by the bye week next year, there's a problem, but until then, let's enjoy his growth.

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Wait.....what?!

MEant to tag the other post.

Thanks for the charts, I like having more detail than just base stats. But I do want to point out one thing though - McVay is one of the best playcallers (if not the best currently and Nagy hasn't come close to his level (though I wouldn't expect him to be right now either).  The Rams do a great job of getting Gurley going and that helps them a lot. Putting them in less 3rd and longs is a massive help, but you're absolutely right that Goff is well above Trubisky. Plus Gurley was such a freakish threat as a receiver too, really makes the offense unpredictable. We've had so much questionable playcalling I can't put it only on Tru.

 

Does anyone know if he has the power to change routes and plays at the line of scrimmage? I think I remember him looking like he flipped a run, but that might have been last year I'm thinking of. IDK.