Checking in with Trubisky

[beardown3231]

10 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

I tend to think of QBs in the following categories:

1. QBs that can consistently lead you to contention - e.g. Brady, Rodgers
2. QBs that can help you contend with enough surrounding talent - e.g. Newton, Ryan
3. QBs that hurt your contention chances - e.g. Bortles, Mariota

I'm not sure Mitch will ever be in group 1. Based on what I've seen so far, he seems to be part of either group 2 or group 3. If he can limit the mistakes and missed plays, I think he can become a solid QB. But I doubt he'll ever be a guy who can carry the Bears to the playoffs with average surrounding talent.

Right, because "every Bears QB has forever sucked so therefore Trubisky won't be great either." That and "I just have a gut feeling because I hated the pick from the start," no one has any basis for making comments like this.

[blkwdw13]

9 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

First of all, thank you Windy for giving me a reason to a take step back from work for a minute. It was very much needed. No sarcasm ,I really mean that. I was getting very restless and irritated.

Anyhow, I agree with the overall sentiment that if Mitch can show that he can be a top-11 QB, that's a very good sign moving forward.
(I chose 11 because when I look at QB's, I place them in categories among the league based on he # of teams---top 11 out of 32 teams mean a plus, bottom 11 out of 32 mean a minus and any other in-between--meaning average or mediocre. That just how I look at it.)

The statement of going from 32nd to average I do agree with, in total. But how much of that "step up"--persay-- is largley compounded by his big game against the Bucs has yet to be seen and that's what were my worries lie.

Here are his totals following each week (I.e week 3 is a combination of both week 1 and 2, etc). I also added an additional pass defense category that shows the opposing pass defense's DVOA and where they ranked prior to each game (i.e the Cardinals pass defense had a +50.30 DVOA which ranked 30th in the league at that time prior to the Bears game).

Notes regarding the additional DVOA
Note 1: I left the Packers in week 1 blank for obvious reasons.
Note 2: It usually takes atleast 4 games to find out whether or not a defense is legit or not. So take this a grain of salt. I am only adding to to provide a little more context is all.

Week	Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	QBR	Rk	Pass	Yards	EYds	TD	FK	FL	INT	C%	DPI	ALEX	Pass Def DVOA	Pass Def Rk
1	M.Trubisky	CHI	-59	26	--	--	-33.20%	26	--	30.2	23	39	157	136	0	1	1	0	65.70%	0/0	0.4	--	--
2	M.Trubisky	CHI	-96	28	--	--	-30.40%	28	--	38.7	22	75	342	271	2	1	1	2	69.60%	0/0	-1.1	15.00%	22
3	M.Trubisky	CHI	-194	29	--	--	-37.20%	28	--	37.2	25	113	534	335	2	1	2	3	69.20%	0/0	-0.7	50.30%	30
4	M.Trubisky	CHI	48	19	46	21	-6.00%	19	-6.30%	54.8	19	140	878	823	8	1	2	3	70.00%	1/29	-0.6	33.60%	27
6	M.Trubisky	CHI	190	14	174	16	5.00%	13	3.70%	61.5	11	173	1,181	1,202	11	1	2	4	70.20%	4/71	0.7	-7.00%	5
7	M.Trubisky	CHI	187	19	194	17	1.10%	19	1.60%	66.5	10	224	1,500	1,479	13	1	2	6	66.20%	5/87	1.2	9.90%	19

 

 

Why are his yardage number short of his actual ones. And I’m not talking about the Eyrds. 

[Nads786]

28 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Right, because "every Bears QB has forever sucked so therefore Trubisky won't be great either." That and "I just have a gut feeling because I hated the pick from the start," no one has any basis for making comments like this.

This is such a good point. My brother is exactly like this, he just expects all Bears QBs to suck forever. 

[abstract_thought]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

Right, because "every Bears QB has forever sucked so therefore Trubisky won't be great either." That and "I just have a gut feeling because I hated the pick from the start," no one has any basis for making comments like this.

I'm not saying he sucks. I'm saying I doubt he'll ever be able to carry a less talented team. That's not necessarily a slight because very few NFL QBs can actually do that.

[G08]

Alex Smith's first 6 games in this offense:

122/216 (56.48%) 1330 YDs, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 79.8 rating

Alex Smith's next 6 games:

139/224 (62.05%) 1409 YDs, 9 TDs, 3 INTs, 87.8 rating

Alex Smith's final 3 games:

47/68 (69.12%) 577 YDs, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 123.2 rating

 

[jrry32]

On ‎10‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 11:39 AM, G08 said:

 

I think the problem you're going to have with "Goff's pace" is that Goff put up the best numbers in the NFL in 2017 over his final 8 starts (games 8 through 15). If Trubisky is going to match "Goff's pace," he's going to have to elevate his play to MVP caliber over his final 8 starts. See Goff's numbers below:

http://pfref.com/tiny/Ezbql

[G08]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

I think the problem you're going to have with "Goff's pace" is that Goff put up the best numbers in the NFL in 2017 over his final 8 starts (games 8 through 15). If Trubisky is going to match "Goff's pace," he's going to have to elevate his play to MVP caliber over his final 8 starts. See Goff's numbers below:

http://pfref.com/tiny/Ezbql

It's just for context. Most informed Bears fans know this is all new for a kid with limited QB experience. Posts/quotes like the one above are for the ones who think the sky is falling and/or that this kid is a bust.

[Superman(DH23)]

5 hours ago, WindyCity said:

After doing some serious reading about the football outsiders stuff they are far more reliable than PFF.

There is far less subjectiveness in them. The data comes in and is compared based on the result of the play.

I think Mitch is probably playing like the 16th best QB in the NFL, if you look at all 6 games, and that is what their numbers seems to bare out as well.

Advanced stats are bs in football bc of the nature of football.  It is the ultimate team sport and requires 11 guys to pulling the rope in the same direction in order to achieve success on every play.  The idea of trying to take that team accomplishment and then assign success/fault on an individual basis is foolhardy 

And oh btw adv metrics say that Tru is #9 in exp points added.  So it's not just me saying that adv metrics are bs bc they dont favor 10.  They actually favor him quite a bit and the guys he is on par with are perennial probowlers.  I just think it's an absolute joke to try to computerize a true team game

[Sugashane]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I think the problem you're going to have with "Goff's pace" is that Goff put up the best numbers in the NFL in 2017 over his final 8 starts (games 8 through 15). If Trubisky is going to match "Goff's pace," he's going to have to elevate his play to MVP caliber over his final 8 starts. See Goff's numbers below:

http://pfref.com/tiny/Ezbql

No Bears fan here I can think of thinks he is going to total those numbers and be in the MVP race. We are just pointing out how Trubisky is getting a lot of ridiculously negative feedback when he is producing. I wasn't in gen forum but I know I didn't personally hear as much negative reporting on Goff going about halfway through his 2nd year. Most of the time Goff and the Rams were getting a lot of love from the media, McVay was being given recognition for his great playcalling and getting attention for COTY honors, Goff for producing, Gurley was getting a TON of love (well-deserved at at that) and got MVP consideration going, etc.

 

We are hearing a ton of negative feedback on Tru when he - through only 6 games - has performed similarly to Goff.

 

But Goff had likely the best playcaller in the NFL in McVay and an elite RB that allows you to run or pass at any time, whereas Howard and Cohen have been able to be keyed on due to what their strengths are. Those are big advantages that Tru doesn't have. When everything got locked in the Rams were pretty damn dominant the second half.

 

It's just that we have heard how this will be by far the worst offense in the NFC North, likely the 2nd worst in the NFC behind AZ, and all that nonsense. Most was illogical. He hasn't played great but he has carried the offense and put up a lot of points. Most would have scoffed at the idea that CHI was even in the top 15 in PPG prior to the season.

 

[jrry32]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

No Bears fan here I can think of thinks he is going to total those numbers and be in the MVP race. We are just pointing out how Trubisky is getting a lot of ridiculously negative feedback when he is producing. I wasn't in gen forum but I know I didn't personally hear as much negative reporting on Goff going about halfway through his 2nd year. Most of the time Goff and the Rams were getting a lot of love from the media, McVay was being given recognition for his great playcalling and getting attention for COTY honors, Goff for producing, Gurley was getting a TON of love (well-deserved at at that) and got MVP consideration going, etc.

 

We are hearing a ton of negative feedback on Tru when he - through only 6 games - has performed similarly to Goff.

 

But Goff had likely the best playcaller in the NFL in McVay and an elite RB that allows you to run or pass at any time, whereas Howard and Cohen have been able to be keyed on due to what their strengths are. Those are big advantages that Tru doesn't have. When everything got locked in the Rams were pretty damn dominant the second half.

 

It's just that we have heard how this will be by far the worst offense in the NFC North, likely the 2nd worst in the NFC behind AZ, and all that nonsense. Most was illogical. He hasn't played great but he has carried the offense and put up a lot of points. Most would have scoffed at the idea that CHI was even in the top 15 in PPG prior to the season.

 

Well, we were averaging around 30 points per game after being the worst offense in the NFL in 2016. That's why we were getting love. But there were still plenty of people not giving Goff respect. Hell, there were people who doubted Goff even after the entire season. It's hard to break people of first impressions.

[Sugashane]

6 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Well, we were averaging around 30 points per game after being the worst offense in the NFL in 2016. That's why we were getting love. But there were still plenty of people not giving Goff respect. Hell, there were people who doubted Goff even after the entire season. It's hard to break people of first impressions.

 

Again, that is just more similarities to point out between the two teams and QBs.

 

We are averaging 28.7 after being one of the worst scoring offenses (4th lowest scoring, less than a FG per game more productive than the Rams the year prior) overall and the worst passing attack in the NFL last year. I agree completely about the first impressions, to me it seems a huge part of the negativity is based off 2017.

There are a ton of differences between the teams of course, but still I would bet Trubisky has outplayed 95% of the posters' expectations here so far.

 

[WindyCity]

44 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Well, we were averaging around 30 points per game after being the worst offense in the NFL in 2016. That's why we were getting love. But there were still plenty of people not giving Goff respect. Hell, there were people who doubted Goff even after the entire season. It's hard to break people of first impressions.

We are averaging 28.5 ppg and we were as bad on offense last season as anything the Rams put on the field.

I personally love Goff and McVay. If I ever divorce myself from the Bears I am heading to the warm weather and Beaches of LA.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

I'd consider it a win if you guys would stop quoting a post with a mile long chart in it

[Sugashane]

2 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I'd consider it a win if you guys would stop quoting a post with a mile long chart in it

 

[G08]

2 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I'd consider it a win if you guys would stop quoting a post with a mile long chart in it

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok