Extend Mike McCarthy?

[AlexGreen#20]

2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

This is the wrong stat and the crux of what people are missing.

You need to look at what you expect the packers conversion would be in the long term on 4th and 2

4th and 2 is all that matters.  Our conversion rate is 50ish percent.

 

You're also not considering that you can use 4 downs on the offensive drive assuming you succeed.  This increases your odds of having a successful drive by approx 33% with just 4 downs is more than 3 downs type thinking.

 

There's no analytical model worth anything that says punt it there.

This is correct. It was a for sure bad call. 

[CWood21]

@AlexGreen#20 were you the one who put up a name of candidates in the last few days?

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

5 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

This is the wrong stat and the crux of what people are missing.

You need to look at what you expect the packers conversion would be in the long term on 4th and 2

4th and 2 is all that matters.  Our conversion rate is 50ish percent.

 

You're also not considering that you can use 4 downs on the offensive drive assuming you succeed.  This increases your odds of having a successful drive by approx 33% with just 4 downs is more than 3 downs type thinking.

 

There's no analytical model worth anything that says punt it there.

I actually included all of those issues in the post.

The point isn't to argue that they should punt, it was to show that MM isn't necessarily lying when he said what he said.

We, meaning me, you, or any other poster don't have access to the analytics the coaching staff do.  Anybody who thinks they do simply has false confidence.

[{Family Ghost}]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

@AlexGreen#20 were you the one who put up a name of candidates in the last few days?

I posted this link a few days ago .. pretty extensive list with little write-ups.  They probably should have included Pete Carmichael OC Saints. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/11/12/top-potential-nfl-head-coach-candidates-for-2019/

[skibrett15]

1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

I actually included all of those issues in the post.

The point isn't to argue that they should punt, it was to show that MM isn't necessarily lying when he said what he said.

We, meaning me, you, or any other poster don't have access to the analytics the coaching staff do.  Anybody who thinks they do simply has false confidence.

"the analytics"

hahaha. I swear people either fear, revere, or don't understand that word.  It's not complicated. You posted the 4th down percentage as if it was relevant.  It isn't.

What extra information are you assuming the packers have that we don't? 

Knowing what we know about NFL teams... there is just NO way that they can calculate these types of scenarios exactly correctly without access to a computer.  And they don't have access to a computer.

 

The vast majority of analytics folks come from pools of talent that start on the internet as writers, researchers, bloggers, etc.  Brian Burke/Chase Stewart these are guys who built models which NFL teams adopt.  All of the models say go for it.

 

So why are you arguing this point?

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

Just now, skibrett15 said:

"the analytics"

hahaha. I swear people either fear, revere, or don't understand that word.  It's not complicated. You posted the 4th down percentage as if it was relevant.  It isn't.

What extra information are you assuming the packers have that we don't? 

Knowing what we know about NFL teams... there is just NO way that they can calculate these types of scenarios exactly correctly without access to a computer.  And they don't have access to a computer.

 

The vast majority of analytics folks come from pools of talent that start on the internet as writers, researchers, bloggers, etc.  Brian Burke/Chase Stewart these are guys who built models which NFL teams adopt.  All of the models say go for it.

 

So why are you arguing this point?

hey I didn't start this-  the question is why are you guys so invested in calling MM a liar?  

Are you trying to tell me you have access to these models and which teams use them?- I sure don't.

The packers have had an assistant for years to develop this data- the last guy Mike Eayers  retired in 2015, and they have a new one now whose name escapes me-  if they use these other models I am unaware of that.

On to your other point,  lets look at some data:

on 4th and 2, this year we are 0 for 2.

on 4th and 3, this year we are 1 for 3, the success being the fake punt last week.

on 4th and 4 we are 2 for 3, both success runs by Aaron Rodgers.

we are 1 for 1 on 4th and 11, we are 0 for 2 on longer than that.

 

So where are you getting the 50% on 4th and 2?

 

 

[AlexGreen#20]

32 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

@AlexGreen#20 were you the one who put up a name of candidates in the last few days?

Nope, my work year just finished though so I'm hoping to get into it a bit more. 

[CWood21]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

Nope, my work year just finished though so I'm hoping to get into it a bit more. 

Someone put up a list I saw when I was at work.  Had a few names I hadn't really dug into yet.

[Packerraymond]

12 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

hey I didn't start this-  the question is why are you guys so invested in calling MM a liar?  

Are you trying to tell me you have access to these models and which teams use them?- I sure don't.

The packers have had an assistant for years to develop this data- the last guy Mike Eayers  retired in 2015, and they have a new one now whose name escapes me-  if they use these other models I am unaware of that.

On to your other point,  lets look at some data:

on 4th and 2, this year we are 0 for 2.

on 4th and 3, this year we are 1 for 3, the success being the fake punt last week.

on 4th and 4 we are 2 for 3, both success runs by Aaron Rodgers.

we are 1 for 1 on 4th and 11, we are 0 for 2 on longer than that.

 

So where are you getting the 50% on 4th and 2?

 

 

You're really stretching for something here man. Mac's not a "liar" but he's trying to cover his *** by saying something that isn't true here. No analytics tell you to punt here. If the analytics we use look at the fact that we're 0-2 on 4th and 2 this year, so we need to punt, then we REALLY need a new coach.

[skibrett15]

Just now, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

So where are you getting the 50% on 4th and 2?

 

was a guess at the time.  Here's the numbers:

 

Historically it's 42.9%  since 2008 for GB in that exact down and distance scenario.  Seattle since 2008 has faced 5 such plays, allowing 2 conversions.

League wide, it's 52.4% on 4th and 2.

If we expand the sample to 4th and 2-4 yards (4th and short but not 1) League wide conversion rate is 48.6%.  GNB is 42.6%, and Seattle surrenders 50%.

I think 38%, the in game conversion rate is just borderline useless.  For one, 3rd down is a different beast that doesn't involve a turnover.  For another, the packers were taking shots on 3rd down that they certainly wouldn't in a 4th and ball game scenario.  If they missed those shots they can still feel ok punting or kicking.  They take the shots hoping for favorable coverages and a chance for easy scores.

10 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

on 4th and 2, this year we are 0 for 2.

on 4th and 3, this year we are 1 for 3, the success being the fake punt last week.

on 4th and 4 we are 2 for 3, both success runs by Aaron Rodgers.

we are 1 for 1 on 4th and 11, we are 0 for 2 on longer than that.

 

So where are you getting the 50% on 4th and 2?

This is not enough cracks to get reliable data.  Just like your in game percentages.

 

If you want to adapt your assumptions based on how the team is playing or how healthy you are, fine.  Tweak your historical or league wide averages.  Think you're a good 4th and 1 team vs past years? ok, adjust up by 5% or so.  WOrried about converting short yardage because you are down your top 2 Gs?  well, then reduce your expected odds a bit before you run the numbers.  If you're looking for a place to put the "game feel" or "gut" stuff in there, that's a heck of a lot better than making a decision and then justifying it after the fact with bologna data.

 

[AlexGreen#20]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Someone put up a list I saw when I was at work.  Had a few names I hadn't really dug into yet.

Saw that as well, meant to bookmark it and go back to it but didn't and now it's lost somewhere in the 120 pages and 3 fire McCarthy threads.

Mod powers activate hopefully

[skibrett15]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

You're really stretching for something here man. Mac's not a "liar" but he's trying to cover his *** by saying something that isn't true here. No analytics tell you to punt here. If the analytics we use look at the fact that we're 0-2 on 4th and 2 this year, so we need to punt, then we REALLY need a new coach.

I think he's just a buffoon.  Nothing about MM's tenure makes you believe he's ever considered an analytical approach to football.

[Leader]

Nagler: I do find it interesting that Packers fans suddenly have FOMO on Payton. This is the same guy who the Saints stuck with through 3 7-9 seasons. Maybe that gives Murphy pause at the end of the year if he's thinking about moving on from Mike.

[vegas492]

21 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

Nobody is wrong here. 

It's not necessarily a mistake to keep McCarthy.  He can still have success. 
It's not necessarily a mistake to fire McCarthy.  A different head coach could do better. 

I just wish both sides understood that.  Nobody in this argument is 100% right. 

 

18 hours ago, Golfman said:

We never win another Super Bowl with McCarthy. There is no reasonable argument to the contrary. The man is so stubborn and his offense is so outdated it's ridiculous. 

 

I take no joy in typing this up...

But...."the man is so stubborn and his offense is so outdated it's ridiculous."  Is it?  I'm not being argumentative with you here, but in my mind, we have rookies playing everywhere.  Running back (Jones didn't play much last year and was suspended early this year), wide receiver (Cobb/GMO are hurt, Jordy is gone), Graham (first year in system). Rodgers is hurt and his mobility and arm are affected.   I feel like the offense is clunky, AT BEST.  But.... I can't help but wonder how much better it looks next year with guys like Jones, Graham, ESB and MVS, heck even Jmon with a year under their belts in the offense...especially versus learning a new system.  I can see the argument on why to get away from Mac based on the offense...I can also see the argument to stick with Mac based on inexperience in the offense.

"We never win another Super Bowl with McCarthy".  Again, not being argumentative, but that phrase is full of emotion.  And I get it.  What I see is this...  "I feel like we will never win another Super Bowl with McCarthy."  I can counter that and say, "I feel like we will not win another Super Bowl, with Aaron Rodgers, if we make a coaching change this late in his career."

I feel like there is merit to both sides there.

Which is why this is difficult, nearly impossible.  But that is why Murphy gets paid the big bucks.  Ultimately, I feel like Mac is done.  I also feel like a change in scenery will help him have a successful second coaching stint somewhere else, and that will give the other side something to hang onto it.  Again, it is just a tough, tough place to be.

[Mr. Fussnputz]

A big factor in "The McCarthy Decision" will be how the team responds when and if they are eliminated from playoff contention. IF MM can keep the team together and playing hard AFTER they are eliminated from playoff contention, then MM hasn't lost the locker room, and my best guess is Murphy brings him back next year. If the team rolls over after being eliminated, then MM has lost the locker room, and I'm guessing MM will be gone. It really boils down to that simple.