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incognito_man

Extend Mike McCarthy?

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8 minutes ago, Kepler said:

I can't wait for McCarthy's tell all book after his career's over.

It’ll set a new record for the most mentions of the words “pad level” and “fundamentals”.

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10 minutes ago, Kepler said:

I can't wait for McCarthy's tell all book after his career's over.

Chapter 88: One Word, Dallas, Texas Super Bowl Baby.

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1 hour ago, Mr. Fussnputz said:

A big factor in "The McCarthy Decision" will be how the team responds when and if they are eliminated from playoff contention. IF MM can keep the team together and playing hard AFTER they are eliminated from playoff contention, then MM hasn't lost the locker room, and my best guess is Murphy brings him back next year. If the team rolls over after being eliminated, then MM has lost the locker room, and I'm guessing MM will be gone. It really boils down to that simple. 

Gute already got rid of the guys who quit on the team last year (Randall, Haha) if that tells us anything.

Edited by incognito_man

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46 minutes ago, Leader said:

It's official. Cowherd has declared MM wont be kept.
You can roll up the sidewalks now. :o

Great, he's staying now

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1 hour ago, Norm said:

Great, he's staying now

Now mind you....I didnt make a "superstition" reverse reality and truth comment :)

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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2018/clutch-encounters-gb-sea

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It is hard to figure out what McCarthy was citing when he said his punt was playing the numbers. Does he mean the sample size of two plays where the Packers are 0-for-2 on fourth-and-2 this season? The league is 22-of-38 (57.9 percent) on fourth-and-2 this season, so that's above 50 percent. Going back to 2011, the league-wide conversion rate is 54.8 percent. Going back to 2006, McCarthy's rookie year, the conversion rate is 50.0 percent for the Packers (13-for-26) and 53.0 percent for the league.

Overall, this is a play that converts for offenses more often than it doesn't. Beyond that, the Packers should be better than average at gaining 2 yards when really needed with Rodgers as their quarterback. If we beef up the sample to look at plays on third and fourth down that needed 2 yards for a first down, then Rodgers is among the best in the league at converting. The following table looks at those conversion rates since 2001 (playoffs included) for quarterbacks with at least 80 such plays. This includes sacks and rushes. Among these 26 quarterbacks, Rodgers averages the second-highest yards per dropback (7.23) and the fourth-highest conversion rate (59.6 percent).

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We can go over some other numbers. Since 2001, trailing teams who punt in the final five minutes have won 7.3 percent of games. That doubles to 14.6 percent for punting teams who were trailing by one possession like Green Bay. Meanwhile, teams down three to six points with possession in the final five minutes win 28.1 percent of the time since 2001. The importance of possession can never be overstated.

This is going to get really specific, but hear us out. The Packers punted from inside their 40, down by no more than five points, with no more than 5 yards to go for a first down, and with 4:00 to 5:00 left in the fourth quarter. The five-point margin is important, because even if you fail on fourth down and then allow a field goal, it is still a one-possession game. This is only the 10th punt that hits all of those qualifiers in the last 18 seasons, but the third one that involves these teams. The first two also led to a win for Carroll's Seahawks and a loss for McCarthy's Packers:

  • In 2017, the 49ers (one timeout left) punted on fourth-and-3 at their own 27 while trailing Seattle 12-9 with 4:47 left. The Seahawks ran out the clock with five Carson runs.
  • In 2013, McCarthy's Packers (three timeouts left) punted on fourth-and-3 at their own 16 while trailing the 49ers 31-28 with 5:00 left. The 49ers added a field goal (34-28) and Rodgers did not get the ball back until 26 seconds remained.

While we found 10 punts in that situation, we only found two offenses that attempted a fourth down in the same situation since 2001. One of those was actually McCarthy's Packers in a division title game against the 2013 Bears in Week 17. Facing a fourth-and-1 at his own 22 with a 28-27 deficit and 4:41 left, McCarthy had the offense go for it despite having one timeout left. John Kuhn picked up the first and Rodgers then threw a 48-yard touchdown to Randall Cobb to win the NFC North. That might be the last courageous thing McCarthy has attempted in this league, and that was still a game where he kicked an extra point when down by two in the fourth quarter. D'oh.

This type of fourth-down decision is something I think most coaches would still struggle with. They fear risking that slightly-better-than-a-coin-flip chance on offense, because it potentially could double the deficit from three to six. However, the defense's goal remains the same no matter where it takes the field: do not allow a touchdown and get the ball back as soon as possible. A 30-24 game would still be a one-score game, and then Rodgers can drive for a game-winning touchdown without any reliance on a shaky Mason Crosby making a long field goal for overtime.

 

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The numbers are clear .. it was a major gaffe from McCarthy.  That was on top of failing to challenge that non catch by the Seahawks when he still had a timeout left.  Even if you lose the challenge .. you still have to do it.  Dumb coaching. 

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21 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

The numbers are clear .. it was a major gaffe from McCarthy.  That was on top of failing to challenge that non catch by the Seahawks when he still had a timeout left.  Even if you lose the challenge .. you still have to do it.  Dumb coaching. 

2

If nothing else, you disrupt the momentum of the opponent as they are driving and picking up steam. We were short on TO's, but then... that also reflects poorly on the coach.

 

Edited by Gopher Trace

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