Week 8 GDT - Green Bay (3-2-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-0)

[Leader]

3 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

there doesn't seem to be a conscious effort to protect against every potential rusher.  Either we don't know who could possibly be coming, or we know and Aaron thinks he can beat the blitz.

This could be true and I'm not a 15-16 year veteran GOAT-like QB in the NFL - but even I can look at that clip and see that defender has nobody on him - UNLESS - I'm thinking AJs got my back. That should have been an easy one for AR. If AJs role was free release (as he ran.....) I'd think AR would whisper over to him and point: Hey - keep an eye on that guy.

[ThatJerkDave]

38 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

this was 3rd and 2 on the opening drive.

Watching the whole play, I don't know who is at fault.  

It looks to me that Aaron is looking to G-mo as the hot route, but he doesn't get his head around to take the pass.  Had he done that, the play would have been successful without AJ blocking.

This is why I hate PFF by the way-  they can't accurately grade this play without guessing who didn't do their job- AJ for not blocking, Gmo for not figuring he was the hot route, or Rodgers/ Linsley for the protection call, or MM for the play design not having a hot route?

My belief is this is why we start slow as a team - it is a complicated offense to learn with all the hand signals, having to read a defense to adjust routes- things like that, and it takes these guys a while as young players to figure it out.  I get that it allows them to utilize all of Rodgers talents, but sometimes it fails like this.

In my eyes, that was Rodgers and/or Linsley not identifying the blitz.  Jones doesn't even attempt a block there, it looks like he ran a route.  I really doubt he just decided not to block, or he wouldn't have gotten back on the field at all.  

[skibrett15]

looking at the clip, the other inside backer who dropped had to have been accounted for in the OL protection for them to let the edge guy go free.  

Pretty sure we are only running 5 man protections when AJ is out there (because he isn't reliable pass pro).  So I am fairly confident we can ignore Jones and just view him as a receiving option.

 

There's 6 in the box, 3 DL, 2 ILB, 1 OLB and the 2nd ILB dropped, one of them rushed.  Think it's quite likely that the OLB (the guy who gets the sack, not actually sure if he's an OLB or DB) is NOT accounted for in the protection and is therefore Rodgers' responsibility.

Which would mean he needs to a) throw hot or b) change the protection if he sees the rusher coming pre-snap.

 

[AlexGreen#20]

7 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

In my eyes, that was Rodgers and/or Linsley not identifying the blitz.  Jones doesn't even attempt a block there, it looks like he ran a route.  I really doubt he just decided not to block, or he wouldn't have gotten back on the field at all.  

I mean, Jones was the back for 6.5 of our 11 drives. After that first drive was the only time he sat out consecutive drives. 

[Leader]

6 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

There's 6 in the box, 3 DL, 2 ILB, 1 OLB and the 2nd ILB dropped, one of them rushed.  Think it's quite likely that the OLB (the guy who gets the sack, not actually sure if he's an OLB or DB) is NOT accounted for in the protection and is therefore Rodgers' responsibility.

Which would mean he needs to a) throw hot or b) change the protection if he sees the rusher coming pre-snap.

It looks like #59 to me - so checked the LAR roster and thats LB Micah Kiser  - but then checked the box score and he;s not credited with a sack. He's not credited for anything actually. The only guy (other than Donald) credited with a sack is #58 (Corey Littleton) - but for the life of me that doesnt look like a 58.  Ha!  

[Packerraymond]

I don't know the responsibility, but Jones missed 4 series in that game. 2 of them came consecutively after that play. It's pretty safe to assume he botched a call there. 

Aaron can be fooled by an exotic look every once in awhile, that was not one of them there. Someone had that guy and my money judging by the resulting series is that was Jones' guy.

[40Year Pack Fan]

On 10/27/2018 at 10:58 AM, showtime said:

You don't have to run the football to control the clock in today's game.  You need first downs and Aaron Rodgers can deliver that through the air.  The Rams defense has shown that they will give up yards and points.

This may be true, but still a more effective way to establish your play action....Goff proved this quite well in the second half of the game....

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

3 hours ago, squire12 said:

Hard to see who covers Jones on his release into the flat.  If there is no one there, maybe he is the hot route and could have gained the first and more.  Would need to see a wider view or different angle to know for sure.

I get to watch it on game pass- the corner breaks down on the Jones route to the flat, and it sure looks to me like Rodgers never even looks that way.   Looked like a risky throw to Jones.

 

3 hours ago, Leader said:

I dont know Ragnar. As Squire mentions - the clip view is too limited. You cant see when Allison turned his head. ARs looking right the entire time. What at - I've no clue - but it would only seem logical to me that AJs gameplay would/should have been: "If that guy comes...you've got to block/chip him" He's literally the last line of defense before AR.

It is not uncommon for Rodgers to be in a protection that leaves him an unblocked guy.  That becomes "his guy" and he either needs to escape or get the ball out.

just hard to know on a play like this- Jones either didn't get the message on protection, or the protection call didn't deal with the Blitz properly.  Bill Belichick once said that he can't tell who messed up when watching another team on tape, so he doubts the average guy can either.  I go with that.  We really don't know.

And by the way, it was 58 (littleton), not 59.  Littleton has been having a great year.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

I don't know the responsibility, but Jones missed 4 series in that game. 2 of them came consecutively after that play. It's pretty safe to assume he botched a call there. 

Aaron can be fooled by an exotic look every once in awhile, that was not one of them there. Someone had that guy and my money judging by the resulting series is that was Jones' guy.

He actually only was out the next series.  He was back in for the third drive that ended in a field goal.

But point taken.  The idea has been put forth by some that Aaron Jones comes into games where drives have stalled and his drives score.  Now that the situation is reversed, Jones drive stalls, and then Williams comes in and they score a touchdown.

Jones is an explosive back when running, but he still has a lot to learn in order to become "the guy".  Fans will need to be patient.

[Shanedorf]

21 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

 Fans will need to be patient.

What planet are you from ? 

I think its far more likely that Packer fans will be patients....than be patient.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

3 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

looking at the clip, the other inside backer who dropped had to have been accounted for in the OL protection for them to let the edge guy go free.  

Pretty sure we are only running 5 man protections when AJ is out there (because he isn't reliable pass pro).  So I am fairly confident we can ignore Jones and just view him as a receiving option.

 

There's 6 in the box, 3 DL, 2 ILB, 1 OLB and the 2nd ILB dropped, one of them rushed.  Think it's quite likely that the OLB (the guy who gets the sack, not actually sure if he's an OLB or DB) is NOT accounted for in the protection and is therefore Rodgers' responsibility.

Which would mean he needs to a) throw hot or b) change the protection if he sees the rusher coming pre-snap.

 

Given that I said we don't know, I will now contradict myself and say I think you are right.

The Rams really do a good job of disguise on this play.  Littleton lines up heads up on Jimmy Graham.  When Gmo went in motion, Sam Shields follows him suggesting man coverage.  The corner/safety- not sure which comes down before the snap so it looks like Shields has Gmo, Littleton has Graham, and the CB/S has responsibility for the RB.  Rodgers is probably thinking that if the blitz comes from that side either Graham or Jones will be open.

The MLB does a good job of breaking to Graham taking that route, and the CB/S breaks down on Jones.  Because Shields gets picked a bit, Gmo was open, but like I said, he doesn't look to get his head around.

It is a chess match going on before the snap, and the Rams look to have won on that one.

[Leader]

This I did not know.............................

 

[Leader]

From CHTV:

It was supposed to be a perfect setup. Aaron Rodgers, down two points, two minutes left, against the undefeated L.A. Rams. This type of finish is what NFL fans pay to see. There was only one major problem—Ty Montgomery never allowed it to get to that point.

Of course that was a special teams’ play and it won’t reflect in the grades below, but it was still unquestionably the biggest play in the game. It would take a potentially season changing play for Montgomery to get shipped off for basically nothing in return, and that’s exactly the type of play it was.

Had Montgomery not fumbled and had Green Bay won the game, the Packers would have moved to 4-2-1 and would have stood on top of the NFC North. Instead, they are in 3^rd place, at .500, and will look to win an incredibly important game against the Patriots on the road.

As a whole there were a lot of positive performances in this game. Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Kenny Clark, and Jaire Alexander all really stood out, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a bit of a breakout moment as well. There were positives to build off of for sure. But there continued to be issues at guard, edge, and safety—the same issues that have plagued this team since week one.

There’s still something just a little bit off with Aaron Rodgers’ game, and maybe it’s something as simple as the injured knee, but it just seems that Aaron Rodgers and the offense get in too many stretches where they can’t get in any sort of rhythm. Rodgers had some plays where he missed open receivers, or stayed in the pocket too long, but he also had a couple of incredible throws to Davante Adams, and hit MVS perfectly in stride for the go-ahead touchdown. Overall it was a winning performance for Aaron.

We all know Aaron Jones is a stud; he just needs to see the field more often. Hopefully the trade of Montgomery will open up more playing time and this becomes a 70/30 split in favor of the best running back the team’s had since Ahman Green in his prime.

There were moments in this game where it felt like Davante Adams was going to will this team to victory. When it has mattered most over the course of the past few weeks, Adams has stepped up and made big plays in big moments. It hasn’t always resulted in the Packers winning the game, but the effort by Adams shouldn’t go unnoticed. He’s near uncoverable at the line of scrimmage right now and more and more teams are starting to bracket him in big situations. The move by MVS to get off the line of scrimmage on the go-ahead touchdown was beautiful and if he starts becoming more of a technician with his route running—look out! Randall Cobb didn’t look fully healthy and ultimately didn’t quite look like himself. Green Bay will need him back to normal against the Patriots.

If Green Bay is in the mood to move on from under performing players, then Lance Kendricks would be a logical next option. Yes, he’s the best H-back type player on the team but he’s the worst tight end of the four and he’s still nowhere close to good in the H-back or fullback role. Green Bay would be wise to give his tight end snaps to Lewis and Tonyan and pick up Dan Vitale off the practice squad to play as the fullback.

Meanwhile, the interior group had to deal with the likes of Suh, Donald, and Brockers on the inside for 78 snaps. It’s not an enviable situation for any interior group and Taylor and Bell weren’t exactly up to the task. While I’ve been a huge supporter of Brian Gutekunst’s moves so far as GM, not better addressing the right guard situation in the offseason was by far one of his biggest mistakes.

You can basically just pencil in Kenny Clark for a +1.00 or better grade every single week. Daniels continues to perform well even though he’s not racking up stats and Tyler Lancaster actually put some really nice snaps together this week, albeit in limited action. Meanwhile Dean Lowry had his most difficult game in a while and it’s time to start realizing that Montravius Adams just isn’t the player Green Bay had expected. Adams is currently in a heated battle with Reggie Gilbert for most disappointing regular season performer after a tantalizing preseason. If Adams played more he’d probably get the nod.

At this point, Green Bay doesn’t have a single edge rusher who should be starting in the NFL. They are legitimately two starting edge rushers short of a solid rotation. Clay Matthews should be a specialized player who rotates in as someone who can lineup either as an edge rusher or inside linebacker. He shouldn’t be expected to play 60+ snaps at this point in his career as a starting edge rusher. Nick Perry is a mostly solid edge-setting run defender who based on his performance this season shouldn’t ever be in on obvious passing downs. Fackrell is a solid rotational depth piece as a number four or five edge rusher, and Reggie Gilbert is basically the practice squad player that Green Bay thought he was last year. Brian Gutekunst has some serious work to do at this position in 2019.

Blake Martinez had a nice game but still had his moments where you’d like him to be a bit more aggressive. Meanwhile, Green Bay basically took Burks off the field against the Rams and used a lot of Jermaine Whitehead in his spot. It’s not difficult to see that Burks needs more time before he’s truly NFL ready. The raw talent is there but he’s not always assignment sure and he’s still thinking way too much.

There was a TON to like about Jaire Alexanders’ performance against the Rams, but maybe my favorite aspect is that he can still get even better. There were some plays where Cooks was able to get the best of him and one play where he basically missed his assignment entirely. Even then, it never once affected his confidence. For a rookie to come in and get beat a couple times and still play with his incredible confidence is truly impressive. He’s a really good player already who is going to be truly special as time goes on.

It’s only fitting that HaHa graded out as my lowest graded defender in his last game in Green Bay. He actually started this game out fairly neutral, but in the second half the same HaHa we’ve come to expect over the last season and a half showed up. It was also a pretty bad day for Jermaine Whitehead who also played fairly passive, missed some easy tackles, and never looked comfortable in coverage. It was his biggest assignment of his career and on Sunday he didn’t look up to the task. Green Bay took steps to try and improve this position this week by trading HaHa and moving Tramon Williams to safety. The next step should be to put Josh Jones next to Tramon and give the safety position a complete makeover.

At the end of the day there were some really interesting grades. On defense the fantastic play of a handful of players really covered up for the deficiencies of the rest. It’s no surprise but edge rusher and safety continued to be massive disappointments. It will be fun to see what Green Bay does at safety against New England with HaHa in Washington. The offense showed flashes as well and it’s going to be harder and harder to keep MVS off the field. I like the rotations they used (outside of not using Aaron Jones enough) and hope they continue to get unique mismatches as the weeks progress. The Packers have yet to put together anything close to a full 60 minutes of football, so let’s hope this week is the week and Green Bay can escape New England with a winning record.

 

 

[tredpack]

"Had Montgomery not fumbled and had Green Bay won the game, the Packers would have moved to 4-2-1 and would have stood on top of the NFC North. Instead, they are in 3^rd place, at .500, and will look to win an incredibly important game against the Patriots on the road."

Major sour grapes for me.The Montgomery play was awful but that was our own team's (player's) doing. If Mathews doesn't get called for that terrible penalty. We're 4-3 and sitting atop the NFC North.

That one play could alter the entire organizations future. Lets say we don't make the playoffs because we didn't win the division,  because of an awful penalty. McCarthy gets fired, we get some knob as a head coach, Rodgers hates the new guy more than McCarthy and we turn into the Chargers after the LT/Rivers/Merriman years (I could argue that's what we are now). We waste another 2-3 years figuring out new coaching schemes and low behold we got one maybe two years of a solid run at a title. Sounds similar to how it ended with Favre... 

Bah!

[eyecatcher]

On 10/29/2018 at 4:40 PM, cannondale said:

Looking at the team stats

Randall Cobb has 32 targets - 21 receptions for 234 yards and a 11.1 average

Take away the 75 yarder (yea yea I know - sue me) he has 20 receptions for 159 yards and a 7.95 average

You do realize that that is on target for 84 receptions and nearly 1000 yards if he played all 16 games right.  If you can get that of from your #3 receiver you should be pretty darn happy.