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ThuNF Week 7: DEN @ ARI GameDay Thread

Broncofan

By Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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State Farm Stadium

5:20 PM PST October 18th, 2018

Coverage: Fox / NFLN / Amazon (Announcers Joe Buck, Troy Aikman)

 

DENVER (2-4, 5-11 in 2017, 4th AFCW); ARI (1-5, 8-8 in 2017, 3rd NFCW)

Line:  DEN -2, O/U somewhere around 41-42 pts

DVOA through Week 5:   DEN (#15 overall - #10 on O; #22 on D; #19 on ST),  ARI (#30 overall - #31 on O, #8 on D, #24 on ST)

DVOA Ranks:  https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

 

So, 2 teams that have coaching staff on the hot seat - HC Vance Joseph & DC Joe Woods for DEN, and OC Mike McCoy (HC Steve Wilks likely has more leash) for ARI.  DEN coming off 4 L's after a 2-0 start against SEA/OAK at home (of which they should have rightfully lost vs. OAK), while ARI is scuffling on O, with a horrible O, and an incredibly unimaginative play calling scheme by good old Mike McCoy, who somehow keeps finding work as an OC despite his history of disasters post-Peyton (hmmm, maybe it wasn't McCoy behind the success there...crazy idea).

Keys for this week:

1.  How does ARI's awful OL protect Josh Rosen?  Can they find success vs. DEN' suddenly porous run D? -   The one area where we excel is in pass rush.  The ARI OL is just awful at pass protection, and pretty awful overall.   Rosen is the guy we should have drafted at 1.5, but hey, it's all good with Case Keenum as our QB (LOL).   Still, he's a rookie, and so getting pressure and getting in his face is the key.   On the run side, our run D has completely collapsed, with our CB's & EDGE's no longer able to provide contain, and our S & ILB's sudden unable to tackle at the 2nd level, leading to some monstrous games (Gurley & LAR no surprise, but NYJ 2 weeks b4 was an eye opener).   The OL is the key here for ARI, because we are vulnerable in the run game, and we are incredibly stout in pass pro (we did give LAR's OL fits in pass rush).  One HUGE break for ARI - Shane Ray has a HAS, so he's out 3-4 weeks, which means that our pass rush is easier to account for (rookie Bradley Chubb had a really good game, even if we should have gone Rosen 1.5, at least he's not been a bust pick so far, although he's not a traditional alpha EDGE threat).  I'd imagine we see a lot of double-teams for Von on Thursday.  

2.  Can DEN's "It's Totally OK To Fly" Zone limit the ARI passing game?- Since 2016, DEN's D has been getting awful pass coverage play for RB's & TE's - but now, we suddenly can't cover anyone except for whoever Chris Harris Jr. covers.   Bradley Roby should be wearing a t-shirt with a picture of toast on TNF instead of a jersey.   Our 3rd CB's have been no better.  And our TE/RB coverage is still non-existent.  So while Fitz will have his hands full vs. Harris Jr., Christian Kirk, Ricky Seals-Jones, David Johnson and the 3rd WR receiver (Chad Williams?) should all have favorable matchups.   It's why protecting Rosen long enough is so key, we are incredibly beatable in our pass protection.   We're not the No Fly Zone, we're more like "Fly The Friendly Skies".   If Rosen struggles, no surprise given our pass rush and his rookie learning curve.  But if he excels, he will certainly show Elway the mistake he made in passing on a franchise QB in a very big and obvious way.

3.  Can David Johnson break out this week? - Isiaih Crowell, then Todd Gurley gashed us for 200+ rushing yards.  I don't see DJ having that kind of success, but I could definitely see 100+ which for him would feel like 200+..and 6/60 in pass catching.    He's an absolute elite weapon mired behind a bottom 5 OL, so this is his chance to shine in prime time.

4..  Can DEN get ahead and rely on the run game instead of Case "OMG Elway how did you pass on Rosen for this guy" Keenum?  - Case Keenum just sucks.  The take that he was possibly a bargain over Cousins, or better to have than Carr, well, I hope ppl realize how awful those takes were.   Late on reads, no pocket awareness, and zero anticipation / placement.   But hey, besides that, all good.   Ugh.   If we are behind, we are dead in the water, having to rely on Keenum to bring us back.  On the other had, we have a really good run game with Royce Freeman as the thunder & Philip Lindsay supplying the lightning.  Our OL does excel at run blocking.   That's the good news the bad news is that...

4.  Can DEN's OL find any way to actually pass protect? - we just lost G Ron Leary, who's been battling injuries, and won't likely return for 2019.  But the issue as with most teams - our replacement sucks hard (Max Garcia).   Our T's literally cannot pass block, they made average Joe DE's/EDGE's look like HoF talent.   And given Chandler Jones is a stud, and their front 7 (and safeties) are bringing the heat (with 4 players with 2 sacks and a lot more hurries) with Jones' 5.5 sacks, this is the D matchup where ARI has to be licking their chops.    We are now down our starting RT Veldheer and have lost our LG Leary for the season, and both replacements pretty much suck.   Our 2017 1st-round LT Bolles is a run block animal, but a total zero in pass pro (16 holds leads NFL since 2017 season started, and a ton of sacks/pressures given up too)

5. Can the DEN WR's / TE's win their matchups vs. ARI's D?  - P-Pete we all know is an elite CB.  The other emerging talent is S Budda Baker, he's the other guy who's made a huge mark as a game changing S (but no one is in Derwin James' stratosphere right now).   PP will take out 1 of the 3 DEN WR's, and Baker's a force in the middle.  Combine it with a huge pass rush, and I see the potential for 2-3 TO's for ARI's D on TNF.

6. Turnovers / Field Position / Turnovers -  when you have 2 bad O's and losing teams, these little things often are the difference.   HFA makes a big difference, although playing in altitude is one advantage that ARI won't experience vs. us.   But it's why ToP and field position will be huge here. 

7.  Will anyone outside of DFS / Fantasy / Bettors / Local Fans even care? - frankly, I don't know that anyone outside of those groups should care lol.  I will say, thank goodness for FF and DFS for games like this.

With us 2-4 and in cap hell, and without a QBOTF, and the need to dump high-salary vets and get picks for UFA's who we won't be able to re-sign (Shane Ray and Shaq Barrett are the easy calls), it's weird that most of the DEN fans in FF are rooting for a L vs. ARI, to move up in a loaded top-end talent class.    

On paper, DEN's a 2-point favorite since we kept it close with LAR, and our O problems seem small compared to ARI's O issues.  But the matchups actually all go in ARI's favor except our pass rush vs their OL, and our run game vs. their run D.   In a tight game, I can see ARI pulling out a 23-17 W.   A DEN W could happen if Mike McCoy pulls a McCoy, or we win the TO battle - but the ironic part is most of DEN's fans are hoping we lose, so we can be sellers at the Oct. 30 trade deadline, and lance the boil that is Vance Joseph as HC on our team.   It might be the first time in a while that both home and visitor team fanbases are rooting for the same team (ARI) in Week 7 lol.

Just over 2 days to TNF...can't wait (kinda, let's face it, we'll take any football then).  Hopefully it's not a brutally painful game to watch with the 2 OL's so mismatched for pass protection.

 

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Chargers

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Clearly Von Miller realized no one outside DEN/ARI/betting/fantasy & DFS cared, so he decided to spice things up...

 

Guarantees never help the team. Rosen doesn't have much tape and if DJ shows up  could pull off a upset. Any given sunday. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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1 hour ago, Classic said:

Guarantees never help the team. Rosen doesn't have much tape and if DJ shows up  could pull off a upset. Any given sunday. 

It’s not like it’s much of an upset if ARI wins TBH.  Most of the DEN FF fans would rather see a L if it gets Elway to start going into 2019-20 mode now.   Can VJ, play the kids and look to the trade deadline to get salary relief for DT (pretty much all we can hope for) and picks for Ray and Barrett (who are both UDFA and not worth a 2nd contract on our team we have way too many other needs and aren’t a realistic contender).   Ray’s HAS hurts in that regard would love for him to boost his trade value before the Oct. 30 trade deadline.   Now that’s unlikely. 

At least it shows Von still cares.  

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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1 minute ago, footbull3196 said:

Anyone think Vance Joseph gets fired if he loses on Thursday night?

I'd give it a 50-50 shot.   He's a dead man walking, it's just a matter of when it happens (for sure end of season, after this game, with 10 days left to prep for next game @KC, or after week 9, when we get the bye).

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