2019 Draft - Edge Rushers

[Tugboat]

30 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

It seems like a lot of Raider fans are preferring Burns over Allen at this point, which blows my mind.

Over Josh Allen?  Or Zach Allen???

 

I too, like Burns over Zach Allen.

[MSURacerDT55]

41 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

What I want is to hear your take. I don't want a curt statement. I respect your opinion, which is why I am asking for it. I like Winovich. But I want to hear your explanation for why you don't (especially with regard to him as a run stopper). After I hear your explanation, I can look when I watch him next to see if I see what you're seeing. I try not to make my mind up about prospects. If somebody makes an interesting observation, I will go back and rewatch a guy to see if I missed it. That is why I am asking you to elaborate. Size, alone, isn't the reason. Where is he deficient?

So you basically think he can come in day 1 and anchor the run a 60 minute NFL game? I'm just not sold on him, which should be fair. The best I can do for him is call him a David Pollack type of guy (and yes, I know about his neck injury) who was really good in college but will never see the same type of success at a higher level vs bigger strong faster guys. He can maybe carve a niche out as a Cassius Marsh, Brooks Reed type of contributor but that's the best I got for you. You know there is a such thing as being really good in college and not being as good at the next level

If he becomes a star on the next level and is All-Pro for years, ill gladly eat crow. This sounds like the same backlash when I was one of the few that didn't like either Shawn Oakman or Andrew Billings back in '16, its cool, we will see

Edited March 6, 2019 by MSURacerDT55

[Tugboat]

Just now, jrry32 said:

I evaluate players for my team, not for the rest of the NFL. Each specific scheme is going to differ. IMO, people on here tend to generalize. I see Winovich as a fit in plenty of schemes.

Fair enough.  I've tried to kinda move away from that as best i can, while still retaining that relevance to my team of (unfortunate) choice.  Mostly as i realized that schemes come and go, coaching staffs come and go...as often as most "schemes" overall.  Ideally i want guys who are going to potentially excel beyond the current staff/scheme.  But can't just brush it aside either.

 

And thus, my draft board looks like a bizarre overly categorized fractal spreadsheet or something.  Which even i myself, can barely navigate.

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

So you basically think he can come in day 1 and anchor the run a 60 minute NFL game? I'm just not sold on him, which should be fair. The best I can do for him is call him a David Pollack type of guy who was really good in college but will never see the same type of success at a higher level vs bigger strong faster guys. He can maybe carve a niche out as a Cassius Marsh, Brooks Reed type of contributor but that's the best I got for you.

If he becomes a star on the next level and is All-Pro for years, ill gladly eat crow. This sounds like the same backlash when I was one of the few that didn't like either Shawn Oakman or Andrew Billings back in '16, its cool, we will see

Pollack had his career ended before he really had a chance. Personally, if we draft Winovich, I imagine he'd be part of a rotation. I don't think he'd play 100% of the snaps. I expect he'd see the field on something like 40% to 50% of the snaps as a rookie. However, I've never said he'll be an All Pro. I see him as more of a Rob Ninkovich type. Glue guy who will provide steady play and a lot of effort for years.

Just now, Tugboat said:

Fair enough.  I've tried to kinda move away from that as best i can, while still retaining that relevance to my team of (unfortunate) choice.  Mostly as i realized that schemes come and go, coaching staffs come and go...as often as most "schemes" overall.  Ideally i want guys who are going to potentially excel beyond the current staff/scheme.  But can't just brush it aside either.

 

And thus, my draft board looks like a bizarre overly categorized fractal spreadsheet or something.  Which even i myself, can barely navigate.

I can understand that approach, but I think Winovich fits in most schemes (or can change his game to fit in most schemes). The only schemes I see him faring poorly in are those that ask him to read and react or those that give him a lot of coverage responsibilities. But with McVay in charge, it seems unlikely that we'll massive scheme overhauls. Even after Wade retires, I imagine he'll have a protégé.

[Tugboat]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I can understand that approach, but I think Winovich fits in most schemes (or can change his game to fit in most schemes). The only schemes I see him faring poorly in are those that ask him to read and react or those that give him a lot of coverage responsibilities. But with McVay in charge, it seems unlikely that we'll massive scheme overhauls. Even after Wade retires, I imagine he'll have a protégé.

I think the biggest thing for me with Winovich, is that i have him down as a guy who based on his play style, can best continue by bulking up to move toward that "traditional" 4-3 heavy DE sort of build, similar to where Ninkovich went.

I value potential "flexibility" a lot, as Ninkovich displayed.  And i think that's where Winovich has his most value in general.  As someone who still has a fair bit of bulk and power to add, to get to where he Ninkovich was.

 

But it's not always an easy and clear translation from scheme to scheme.  Heck...how many people thought Calais Campbell would be a near DPOY as a 4-3 DE?

[MSURacerDT55]

22 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Personally, if we draft Winovich, I imagine he'd be part of a rotation. I don't think he'd play 100% of the snaps. I expect he'd see the field on something like 40% to 50% of the snaps as a rookie. However, I've never said he'll be an All Pro. I see him as more of a Rob Ninkovich type. Glue guy who will provide steady play and a lot of effort for years.

Well for my money, I would draft John Cominsky (Who has real tangible upside) in the 5th as opposed to using a 2nd for Winovich if I want a glue guy.

Edited March 6, 2019 by MSURacerDT55

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Well for my money, I would draft John Cominsky (Who has real tangible upside) in the 5th as opposed to using a 2nd for Winovich for that, but that's just me.

They wouldn't play the same position in our scheme. And we could use somebody who can make an impact as a rookie pass rusher. Plus, I would take Winovich (or Christian Miller) in the 3rd. He's not somebody I'd grab in the 2nd.

[MSURacerDT55]

4 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

They wouldn't play the same position in our scheme. And we could use somebody who can make an impact as a rookie pass rusher. Plus, I would take Winovich (or Christian Miller) in the 3rd. He's not somebody I'd grab in the 2nd.

I forgot you were a Rams fan

[Hawkeyejam]

https://mobile.twitter.com/misterEbird/status/1102928655209164801

Don't agree with the Bend comment, but people are sleepwalking on Nelson. Looked very fluid in movement in drills, very refined hand technique, and very good production over 3 years

[jrry32]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeyejam said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/misterEbird/status/1102928655209164801

Don't agree with the Bend comment, but people are sleepwalking on Nelson. Looked very fluid in movement in drills, very refined hand technique, and very good production over 3 years

I think Nelson is rated accurately. He's a 2nd/3rd round talent. Big guy with a lot of length. Can overwhelm weaker OTs with his power and hand placement. Doesn't have the athleticism to threaten the corner (despite his Combine numbers, I felt he was a heavy-legged rusher). If he's going to win as a pass rusher, he has to go through the blocker. As a run defender, he's instinctual and sound. Fits best as a one-gap 5-Tech in a 3-4 scheme or as a base end in a 4-3 scheme. Has the potential to be a stout run defender who will be a bit streaky as a pass rusher imo (type of guy who overwhelms weaker opponents but disappears against guys who match or better his talent).

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

It seems like a lot of Raider fans are preferring Burns over Allen at this point, which blows my mind.

I mean, I can understand why.  Don't agree with it, but I certainly understand it.

[BrownLeader]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I mean, to be fair...almost all of these guys are more Rush LBers.

 

Winovich is gonna have to get stronger to find his real home as an NFLer i think.  He's a bit of a tweener right now, in that he's got the traits and play style of a bigger dude who can really anchor down, but doesn't have that kind of robustness.  Doesn't have the twitch to play on the edge.  He's going to have to add bulk/strength/power and find a home as a DE somewhere.  And i'd bet he does it...eventually.

 

I don't think this is an accurate take on his skill set though. He's strong and he plays strong at the point of attack. His short area quickness is good. He's got some speed and he closes fast. This shows on film and he backed it up in testing. He's undersized as a full time DE but does have violent handwork. He's ideal size for a standup rush end but doesn't have the experience in coverage. I think he's a similar prospect to Jabaal Sheard, Clay Matthews, Oliver Vernon, or Brooks Reed.

3 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

So you basically think he can come in day 1 and anchor the run a 60 minute NFL game? I'm just not sold on him, which should be fair. The best I can do for him is call him a David Pollack type of guy (and yes, I know about his neck injury) who was really good in college but will never see the same type of success at a higher level vs bigger strong faster guys. He can maybe carve a niche out as a Cassius Marsh, Brooks Reed type of contributor but that's the best I got for you. You know there is a such thing as being really good in college and not being as good at the next level

If he becomes a star on the next level and is All-Pro for years, ill gladly eat crow. This sounds like the same backlash when I was one of the few that didn't like either Shawn Oakman or Andrew Billings back in '16, its cool, we will see

Of course you don't really have an argument. Fair enough though. Pollack, Marsh or Reed are at least better than the special teamer you were calling him a month ago..

2 hours ago, jrry32 said:

They wouldn't play the same position in our scheme. And we could use somebody who can make an impact as a rookie pass rusher. Plus, I would take Winovich (or Christian Miller) in the 3rd. He's not somebody I'd grab in the 2nd.

If I'm the Patriots or Rams at the bottom of the 1st, he's in the discussion. Motor, violent handwork, and athletic ability are easily bankable things.

I'll be really surprised if he makes it out of the 2nd.

Edited March 6, 2019 by BrownLeader

[jrry32]

36 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

If I'm the Patriots or Rams at the bottom of the 1st, he's in the discussion. Motor, violent handwork, and athletic ability are easily bankable things.

I'll be really surprised if he makes it out of the 2nd.

Nah. If we go pass rusher with our first pick, I imagine we'll trade down and take Jachai Polite.

[brownie man]

16 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Over Josh Allen?  Or Zach Allen???

 

I too, like Burns over Zach Allen.

I just went back and watched Burns

I feel like if put in the position I'm taking him over Sweat

even at that weight he just is so much more fluid, more pass rush moves, and plays like a football player and not just an athlete. 

[jrry32]

8 hours ago, brownie man said:

I just went back and watched Burns

I feel like if put in the position I'm taking him over Sweat

even at that weight he just is so much more fluid, more pass rush moves, and plays like a football player and not just an athlete. 

I'd be interested in knowing what game(s) you watched. I saw a one tricky pony. I saw a pillow puncher who struggles mightily when the tackle gets his hands on him. Sweat is the rare type of rusher who can do it all. Maybe I watched the wrong games on Burns.