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Tracking Baker Mayfield VS. Sam Darnold's 1st Yr Play


Mind Character

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3 hours ago, Mind Character said:

FYI ... I already knew that and have posted their difference ... not the point of my post... appreciate the meaningless reply post...

Not meaningless.  Passes have higher expected value of yards gained and higher variance compared to runs.  The fact that even though chubb catches the ball less and still has a higher yard per touch essentially negates this advantage.  ESP since he’s starting to catch the ball more and be relatively successful at ir

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7 hours ago, Mind Character said:

FYI ... I already knew that and have posted their difference ... not the point of my post... appreciate the meaningless reply post...

😂

6 hours ago, Mega Ron said:

Hell, he's that good that he'd be the best running back in the CFL

Bro, you're not even taking this seriously.

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4 hours ago, mistakey said:

Not meaningless.  Passes have higher expected value of yards gained and higher variance compared to runs.  The fact that even though chubb catches the ball less and still has a higher yard per touch essentially negates this advantage.  ESP since he’s starting to catch the ball more and be relatively successful at ir

In comparisons, sample sizes matter.  In this case, the extremely small sample size of Chubb's passing utilization is not a meaningful comparison point at this time making any extrapolations of his passing stats not a meaningful data point to make an inference from. At one point in this season, extrapolation suggested that WR Michael Thomas would have over 210 receptions on the year.

Nick Chubb has 6 receptions while Saquon has 62 reception; therefore, the comparison of there avg. yards per carry (4.5-Saquon to 6.2-Chubb) is the only meaningful comparison point of which the statistical advantage suggests that Chubb is having the superior season rushing-wise relative to Saquon; however, the contextual factors around the players (i.e., offensive line play, QB play, 1st & 2nd down utilization in pass versus run, offensive scheme, traditional scouting analysis of their block-run-pass play traits) suggests that it's not yet readily apparent regarding who's having the better rookie season.

Arguments can be made for both from a traditional football scouting analysis perspective, as well as a analytics/statistical production perspective.

They are both playing well, but based on public perception Nick Chubb is having an excellent rookie campaign while Barkley is underachieving. The proof for me is in the details of their play and how it works together with the play of the those around them.

I was a huge Derrius Guice and Rashaad Penny fan pre-draft and advocated against taking Saquon top 4.

We were correct to pass on Barkley.

Chubb thus far has been really good, and so has Barkley.

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1 minute ago, Mind Character said:

In comparisons, sample sizes matter.  In this case, the extremely small sample size of Chubb's passing utilization is not a meaningful comparison point at this time making any extrapolations of his passing stats not a meaningful data point to make an inference from. At one point in this season, extrapolation suggested that WR Michael Thomas would have over 210 receptions on the year.

Nick Chubb has 6 receptions while Saquon has 62 reception; therefore, the comparison of there avg. yards per carry (4.5-Saquon to 6.2-Chubb) is the only meaningful comparison point of which the statistical advantage suggests that Chubb is having the superior season rushing-wise relative to Saquon; however, the contextual factors around the players (i.e., offensive line play, QB play, 1st & 2nd down utilization in pass versus run, offensive scheme, traditional scouting analysis of their block-run-pass play traits) suggests that it's not yet readily apparent regarding who's having the better rookie season.

Arguments can be made for both from a traditional football scouting analysis perspective, as well as a analytics/statistical production perspective.

They are both playing well, but based on public perception Nick Chubb is having an excellent rookie campaign while Barkley is underachieving. The proof for me is in the details of their play and how it works together with the play of the those around them.

I was a huge Derrius Guice and Rashaad Penny fan pre-draft and advocated against taking Saquon top 4.

We were correct to pass on Barkley.

Chubb thus far has been really good, and so has Barkley.

bruh you're pretty damn pedantic you know that right?  

just gonna copy and paste this
Passes have higher expected value of yards gained and higher variance compared to runs.  The fact that even though chubb catches the ball less and still has a higher yard per touch essentially negates this advantage.

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1 minute ago, mistakey said:

bruh you're pretty damn pedantic you know that right?  

just gonna copy and paste this
Passes have higher expected value of yards gained and higher variance compared to runs.  The fact that even though chubb catches the ball less and still has a higher yard per touch essentially negates this advantage.

Anyone else have to google this?

Nice word my man.

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