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Mind Character

Tracking Baker Mayfield VS. Sam Darnold's 1st Yr Play

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7 minutes ago, mistakey said:

well, sam had <50% 1 TD 3 INT today

1.) Remember that Box-score Scouting is terrible and can misinform your opinion. A - 3 Int game and 1 TD game can be better than a game with No INTs based on the context of the play. For example, did the INTs come from bouncing of the WRs chest or due to a wrong route versus did the QB throw tons of INT type passes that were just dropped by the defense.

He played a very good defence.

He's 21 and Baker's nearing 50.

Green is a difficult colour to see on a green field.

Fun thread.

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On October 20, 2018 at 12:41 PM, Thomas5737 said:

My opinion is that if you are a 1st round pick you shouldn't look awful at QB as a rookie in 2018. There will be times they do and they should only get better from here but the league caters to QBs so if you look awful that would be a terrible sign.

Goff didn't look very good in his rookie season.

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2 minutes ago, dawgattack said:

Goff didn't look very good in his rookie season.

Jeff Fisher

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6 minutes ago, Don Roshi said:

1.) Remember that Box-score Scouting is terrible and can misinform your opinion. A - 3 Int game and 1 TD game can be better than a game with No INTs based on the context of the play. For example, did the INTs come from bouncing of the WRs chest or due to a wrong route versus did the QB throw tons of INT type passes that were just dropped by the defense.

He played a very good defence.

He's 21 and Baker's nearing 50.

Green is a difficult colour to see on a green field.

Fun thread.

I nominate @Don Roshifor Browns forum Hall of Fame.

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3 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

Jeff Fisher

Baker has Hue/Haley as a rookie and looks good. I don't think a QB should be judged based on a not so great rookie season. Darnold's still younger than many college QBs.

Having said that, I'm glad we have Baker.

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On 10/20/2018 at 3:54 AM, Mind Character said:

What this thread is for:

So, I figured I'd create a hub post to follow and compare the play of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold's rookie year.

Info in this thread includes video from each one of their snaps, stats, as well as an analysis of the context around their play (i.e., WR skill, injuries, play-calling, etc..)

If people have interesting stats, analytics, videos, or whatever regarding the players, please post it.

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Things That Matter When Thinking About Comparing Players

1.) Remember that Box-score Scouting is terrible and can misinform your opinion. A - 3 Int game and 1 TD game can be better than a game with No INTs based on the context of the play. For example, did the INTs come from bouncing of the WRs chest or due to a wrong route versus did the QB throw tons of INT type passes that were just dropped by the defense.

2.) Remember TV-Copy Scouting misinforms opinions on QB Play: Were the receivers open when the QB held onto the ball? Did a receiver run the wrong route? Did a WR slip? Was the play design Poor and destined to fail

3.) What's around QB matters: Who has the better Offensive line?, Offensive Coordinator? Whose defense gets the ball back to them the most? Who has the better Rushing attack? Who's pass catchers are better? Are their skill players injured??

4.) Opponent's Matter: What is the nature of the competition they are up against?

5.) When the game happens: Was the game on a short week?

-----------------------------------------------------------------
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My thoughts:

As the "I Told You So" Darnold and Mayfield fans have discovered, what one feels about their rookie QB can change based on the next week/weeks. Instead of riding the roller-coaster of emotion it's best to enjoy the moment and let the season play out. It takes at least 3 years before we'll know what the QBs really are as some are fast out the gate with success and fall to the back of the pack or regress completely while others are slow out the gate and end up having HOF careers.

I didn't feel like adding Josh Rosen or Josh Allen to this post, but if someone wants to .. have at it.. it's possible that one of them could end up being the best of the bunch when it's all said and done. Rosen has played well this season despite the stats.
 

On Declarations of QB messiah foolery....

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Baker Mayfield - The Context

1.) Offensive Line:

2.) Skill Position around:

3.) Offensive Coordinator & Play-Calling:

4.) Defense Quality & Take-Away Ability:

5.) Special Teams & Field Position:

6.) Opponent (Defense/Offense) Quality:

 

---------------------------------------------

Baker Mayfield - Every Pass & Run - The TV Copy Film

1.) Game 1, Week 3: The Jets

2.) Game 2, Week 4: Oakland

 

3.) Game 3, Week 5: Ratbirds

4.) Game 4, Week 6: Chargers

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Baker Mayfield - The Basic Box-Score Stats:

7yahqPT.png

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Sam Darnold - The Context

1.) Offensive Line:

2.) Skill Position around:

3.) Offensive Coordinator & Play-Calling:

4.) Defense Quality & Take-Away Ability:

5.) Special Teams & Field Position:

6.) Opponent (Defense/Offense) Quality:

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Sam Darnold - Every Pass & Run - The TV Copy Film

1.) Game 1, Week 1: Detroit Lions

2.) Game 2, Week 2: Dolphins

3.) Game 3, Week 3: Cleveland

4.) Game 4, Week 4: Jaguars

 

5.) Game 5, Week 5: Denver

 

6.) Game 6, Week 6: Colts

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Sam Darnold - The Basic Box-Score Stats

Om1lsf6.png

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Week 7 - Some Conclusions for now:

It's debatable given the context surrounding the QBs and analysis of their play on who's played the best to this point between Darnold and Baker.

There are arguments to be made in Darnold's favor as their are in Baker's favor.

Currently, I'd give Baker the slight edge, but it's close. To me, that's interesting because I thought Darnold would be near Deshone Kizer awful awful in his first year as I thought he was no where close to ready to start.

Both QBs have played really well at times.

There will likely be separation amongst them as teams get to know their film and more play is observed.

 

 Week 7 - Baker Mayfield

23/34, 67.7%, 215 Yards, 2 TDs: 0 INTs, 5 Sacks: 4 Rush for 43 Yards, 0 Rush TD: 1 Fumble: a Loss

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 Week 7 - Sam Darnold

17/42, 40.5%, 206 Yards, 1 TD: 3 INTs, 3 Sacks: 6 Rush for 18 YDS, 1 Rush TD: 2 Fumbles: a Loss

 

Edited by Mind Character

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25 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

@Mind Character, I don't think it's really a big thing with either QB, but maybe include rushing yards each game for each?

You're right.

It is meaningful, especially in games where there are big impact runs like with Baker's last week.

Will be interesting to see how their rushing yards and TD totals compare at the end of the season.

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On 10/21/2018 at 5:20 PM, dawgattack said:

Goff didn't look very good in his rookie season.

There can be exceptions but it's definitely a bad sign to look awful. Goff only had about the same amount of attempts as Baker has as a rookie so it really wasn't enough of a sample size. Goff had 5 TD and 7 INT and Baker has 6 TD and 5 INT. So while Mayfield has looked much more ready than Goff did I don't think Goff looked awful, just not ready and overwhelmed. He wasn't Kizer bad.

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Weird stat. Speed of the game is a rough adjustment. Baker will grow.

The Browns rank 31st in completion percentage (55 percent) and have allowed the most sacks in the NFL (31), but don't put that on the offensive line. Cleveland's line has won its pass blocks by 2.5 seconds 62 percent of the time, the second-best rate in the NFL. -- Larson

Edited by candyman93

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9 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Weird stat. Speed of the game is a rough adjustment. Baker will grow.

The Browns rank 31st in completion percentage (55 percent) and have allowed the most sacks in the NFL (31), but don't put that on the offensive line. Cleveland's line has won its pass blocks by 2.5 seconds 62 percent of the time, the second-best rate in the NFL. -- Larson

Yeah there’s a lot of sacks that are on Baker, which is understandable with a rookie.

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1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

Weird stat. Speed of the game is a rough adjustment. Baker will grow.

The Browns rank 31st in completion percentage (55 percent) and have allowed the most sacks in the NFL (31), but don't put that on the offensive line. Cleveland's line has won its pass blocks by 2.5 seconds 62 percent of the time, the second-best rate in the NFL. -- Larson

What does this mean though? So Baker had at least 2.5 seconds to throw 62% of the time?

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Sunday's game from Darnold is about what I would have expected from the get go as a 20 year old rookie, and said as much when he came out. I think that he's still raw/green and needed a year on the bench, but he's also had a decent season despite Sunday's performance. JMHO

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1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah there’s a lot of sacks that are on Baker, which is understandable with a rookie.

I think he will always take some sacks, he likes picking up chunk yardage. Baker has also escaped a lot of sacks, probably more than 90% of the league.

At Baker's worst he looks like an NFL QB so at least we are set there for awhile.

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