BDL 2018 Week 7- Oklahoma City EF5s @ Cuba Smugglers

[ny92mike]

BDL 2018 Week 7

Match:  Oklahoma City EF5s @ Cuba Smugglers

Away Owner: @Whicker

Home Owner:  @MD4L

           

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[ny92mike]

Oklahoma City EF5s

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Melvin Gordon III (Q)
RB: Joe Mixon
WR: Adam Thielen
WR: Robert Woods
TE: Jesse James
LT: David Bakhtiari
LG: Laken Tomlinson
C: Rodney Hudson
RG: Michael Schofield III
RT: Morgan Moses

WR: Kenny Stills
WR: Taywan Taylor
RB: Alex Collins
TE: Mark Andrews
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: Michael Gallup
OG: Jesse Davis
OT: Brian O'Neill

 

Rush: Von Miller
DE: Cameron Heyward
NT: Eddie Goldman
DE: Stephon Tuitt
OLB: Lorenzo Alexander
MLB: Darron Lee
CB: Patrick Peterson
CB: Shaquill Griffin
CB: Bene' Benwikere
FS: Malik Hooker
SS: Jordan Poyer

Rush: Ryan Kerrigan
DL: Tyeler Davison
DL: Carl Davis
LB: Cory Littleton
LB: A.J. Klein
CB: Trevor Williams
CB: Fabian Moreau
S: Adrian Amos

Cuba Smugglers

 

QB: Kirk Cousins

RB: TJ Yeldon

WR: Julio Jones

WR: Albert Wilson

WR: Kelvin Benjamin 

TE: Ryan Griffin

LT: Anthony Castonzo

LG: James Carpenter 

C: Jon Sullivan

RG: David DeCastro

RT: Rob Havenstein 

 

RB: Latavius Murray

RB: Frank Gore 

H-Back: Rhett Ellison

WR: Chester Rogers

WR: Donte Moncrief

WR: Jakeem Grant

OT: Jason Peters

FB/OLB: Ryan Anderson

 

RDE: Jerry Hughes

DT: Margus Hunt

DT: Fletcher Cox

LDE: Calais Campbell 

SLB: Thomas Davis

WLB/S: George Iloka 

RCB: Quinton Dunbar 

FS: LaMarcus Joyner 

SS: Derwin James

NCB: Bryce Callahan 

LCB: Richard Sherman (GTD)

 

Edge: Terrell Suggs 

NT: Lawrence Guy

MLB: Anthony Walker Jr.

NCB: Kenny Moore

NCB: Darqueze Dennard 

SS: Ronnie Harrison

NT: Marcell Dareus

LCB: Anthony Brown (starter if Sherman is out)

 

[ny92mike]

Oklahoma City EF5s

This week we look to continue our undefeated season with a tough road game in Cuba. This Smugglers team looks like it's starting to find its footing, and we cannot take them lightly. Given our highly competitive division, we are still not even assured a playoff spot, and we will continue to come out each game with intensity and desire.

Offense:

This week we run into a bit of a predicament with our lead horse, Melvin Gordon, questionable for this game. Although our offense will differ a little based on whether or not Gordon can go, we will trying to accomplish the same goals. Our goals on offense this week will be to attack the Cuba linebackers and find good matchups against the Cuba corners.

If Melvin Gordon is a go, we will run an up-tempo offense that leans (60/40) towards the run. We will focus on running outside using stretches and tosses, attacking the edges of Cuba and isolating their linebackers in space. We will also run inside using double teams at the point of attack. We will run from 21, 20, 11, and even 22 personnel, using our second back often for misdirection and counter plays, keeping the defense guessing at all times. There will also be a good dose of read-option from our side this week, using Cam Newton as an additional weapon in the middle of the field. We will also feature both running backs as receivers, both out of the backfield and split out wide. We want to generate one on ones against a linebacker in the passing game.

Once we've established the run and Derwin James is comfortable in the box, we will open up our deep passing out of play action. On these passes, we will leave additional pass protection of some kind, allowing us more time to develop down the field. On most of these plays we will send at least three vertical routes to overload deep zones and put pressure on Lamarcus Joyner.

Although we have the 21 personnel listed as our starting lineup, we will often use 3 and 4 WR sets with Kenny Stills and Taywan Taylor in order to generate good matchups with the Cuba CBs. Bryce Callahan is a slot-only corner, and we plan on abusing this by having Thielen line up regularly in the slot. If Sherman does end up following Thielen, we are going to pick on Callahan on the outside. We also like Robert Woods matched up with any non-Richard Sherman corner, and we plan on featuring him the passing game as well.

If Melvin Gordon sits, Joe Mixon becomes our workhorse back with Alex Collins spelling him as necessary. We will scrap 2 RB sets almost entirely and tilt our playcalling back towards the pass. We will use 3 WR sets heavily with Adam Thielen and Robert Woods getting moved around often. We will continue to feature Joe Mixon on outside runs and as a receiver in order to attack the Cuba linebackers.

 

 

Defense:

On defense this week we will play the typical Cuba defense by shutting down Julio Jones and forcing the other weapons to generate enough offense to beat us.

Patrick Peterson will shadow Julio Jones with Jordan Poyer giving help on a double team on most plays. An elite CB with safety help is the most attention you can devote to a player, and we are going to test the ceiling of an elite WR in this match. We expect Julio to put up close to zero with this coverage.

Shaquill Griffin will cover whomever Cuba names as their #2 WR with Bene' Benwikere covering their third WR. Malik Hooker will be playing a deep zone and limit any big plays. We want Hooker to be especially mindful of Albert Wilson on the catch and run as we feel that Wilson presents the biggest threat with Julio erased.

We want our secondary to be aware of trickery coming from Cuba. They've attempted it in the past, and they have the necessary personnel. On jet sweeps and pitches, our cornerbacks must stay home in coverage. Jordan Poyer will be allowed to break coverage; Malik Hooker will stay over the top.

Von Miller will get to roam and our pressure calls will revolve largely around him. If he can find a one on one, we will, of course, take that against either one of Cuba's tackles. We will also use defensive stunts to work him against interior linemen.

We want to play with three down linemen this week to help control the line of scrimmage, force one on ones, and win in the run game. One matchup we want to exploit often is James Carpenter against Cameron Heyward, as we feel like quick interior pressure will strongly complement our edge pressure.

Lorenzo Alexander's assignment will depend on how Cuba plans on handling Von Miller. If they are giving Von one on ones, we will use Alexander as a typical off-ball linebacker in coverage and run defense, letting Von work his magic on his own. If they leave an extra person in to help against Miller, Alexander will become a rush linebacker. We will put him to work against an Anthony Castonzo that still may not be back into form. We will also rotate Ryan Kerrigan into this rush linebacker role.

Darron Lee will cover the leftover player who is not helping on Von. If Alexander is used as an off-ball linebacker, he and Lee will rotate coverage on the RB and TE.

Against four wide, Alexander and Goldman will come off the field for Trevor Williams and Ryan Kerrigan. Williams will cover the 4^th WR. Von and Kerrigan will attack the edges. Against 2 WR, Benwikere comes off for Cory Littleton.

 

Cuba Smugglers

Offense

We are finally coming along on offense with the play of Albert Wilson. The offense usually revolves around Julio Jones but it’s not every week Patrick Peterson is on the other side. We are sure they will be matched more often than not. We’re going to line Julio in multiple spots but a new wrinkle will be putting him at RB. No more than 2-3 snaps Julio will actually be at that position but it’s a nice way to complicate matters for Peterson as he may be lined up at LB if he has shadow responsibility. We can use some pistol formations and run the ball up the middle. Oklahoma City doesn’t have many flaws but they are incredibly suspect at LB after Darron Lee. Lorenzo Alexander is someone we’ve got experience with and he’s best used as an edge rusher. At Off ball LB, we consider him a massive liability. The important thing of note here is OKC lacks a viable second off ball LB. They have utilized Adrian Amos near the LOS with Malik Hooker effectively being the sole line of defense beyond 15 yards. We’re going to use the running game more than any game this week. Latavius Murray and Frank Gore are coming off their best performances this year. Whereas we’ve been pass friendly a safe expectation is somewhere near 30 combined carries with our three backs. Although it’ll be a fair rotation early, we’re going to let one of Murray/Gore take the reigns and hammer this defensive line in the second half.

Julio’s target share range is 6-9. There’s a good chance of heavy man defense. Albert Wilson will continue to be targeted in short areas. We like the concept of putting him and Julio in bunch formations. This can cause some pick plays where Julio can break from Peterson for quick targets, and it also frees Wilson to where he can use his dynamic YAC ability. Elsewhere, Kelvin Benjamin returns to the lineup as he will likely face an easier matchup than his NFL situation. His target share won’t go more than seven. If Julio is not shadowed by Peterson, our game plan changes significantly. Julio will be targeted around 20 times. Run is to avoid being one dimensional w that idea.

We haven’t forgot about Von Miller. He might be better than Peterson in terms of skill set for his position. Havenstein has performed extremely well this year but it’s still not enough to avoid giving him help. Rhett Ellison and Ryan Griffin will spend most of their snaps on the right side of the LOS. We will do as much reasonable tricks as possible to make sure Rob Havenstein has help. In addition, part of lining up Julio Jones at RB in presnap is we’ve added another wrinkle to slow Miller from putting his head down and rushing the passer. We’ll run a handful of screens to Miller’s side to make him consider viable strategies beyond rushing the passer. Between this idea and running to the right side, there are many other aspects of the game for Miller to decide upon rather than coming up field and ruining our gameplan with his pass rush ability.

TDLR: Balance offensive line. Double one of Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward, while DeCastro uses his pull ability to reach Lee in the second level. Kirk Cousins gets the ball to Albert Wilson, Benjamin, and TJ Yeldon.

Defense

This is the most unique offense we’ve faced up to this point. There are many reasons for this, but OKC doesn’t use TEs and embraces ”position less football”. Our defense is reinserting George Iloka to upgrade the speed in the middle while giving scheme versatility against this offense. Additionally, Margus Hunt gets the start inside as we ramp our pass rush efforts in this game. Bakhtiari is a premier LT, but there’s a case for Jerry Hughes to make an all pro team, thus that battle should produce a fair share of wins for both players. Additionally, Fletcher Cox and Calais Campbell always give a chance to win at the LOS. This team runs plenty of RPOs and backside shovel tosses to deceive defenses. In response to this we’re biting hard on inside runs and QB options. If Cam Newton is going to beat us it’ll be with whichever of Joe Mixon and Taywan Taylor running as receivers in the backfield. Our tackling is effective with guys like Derwin James and others in the backend, so we will let OKC get 4-5 yards to stop big plays by scheme. We are going to blitz even with pass rush friendly fronts as Cam can always find running lanes and take advantage with his dual threat ability. We want him to beat us by staying in the pocket and converting vertical reads consistently. This team uses a wide variety of vanilla looks and we want to expedite that process by bringing people to the LOS and rushing those decisions.

For the secondary, the main goal is Adam Thielen. We’ve considered him a viable weapon for some time and it’s not a surprise at all that him and Kirk Cousins have been so effective as the latters ability to make pinpoint passes is a fine match with Thielen’s ability to make contested grabs. We think Cam Newton is a fantastic QB on many metrics, but his accuracy isn’t as pinpoint as the other QBs of his caliber. Additionally, Bryce Callahan has been brilliant this season. Callahan doesn’t just cover well, he’s a high level blitzer and is arguably the top slot CB in football. We’ve seen Cam Newton have troubles when his running ability is limited and blitzing him also forces him to make accurate reads. Thielen is just one of many high level targets and doubling him plus Richard Sherman effectively getting targeted once a game, the burden of targets will likely fall on Quinton Dunbar. He won’t be asked to shadow, and receives safety help. If he has to cover Thielen we can handle two concerns with one matchup as Dunbar will get plenty of help from LaMarcus Joyner. By game planning against OKC’s RPOs and finding ways to get our quality cover men on Adam Thielen we place ourselves in scenarios where Robert Woods and Kenny Stills have to make plays to win the game. While both are quality options, we will take those odds rather than Cam Newton’s legs, Mixon, and Adam Thielen repeatedly carving the defense apart.

 

TLDR: No Melvin Gordon but we intend to blitz up the A-Gap and overlap it with cover 3 as the most frequent package. Sherman’s availability changes our cover schemes. If he cannot go, we’ll put double coverage on Thielen. Anthony Brown would shadow Kenny Stills (occasional help) and two deep safeties in two man under would be used more often. Same idea features Iloka as a spy on Newton.

 

[Whicker]

Melvin Gordon and Carl Davis were inactive for me.

Richard Sherman, Quinton Dunbar, Ryan Griffin, and Darqueze Dennard are all inactive for Cuba.

 

[MD4L]

Kenny Moore to RCB, George Iloka is DB by trade.

 

[MD4L]

Kelvin Benjamin v Bene Benwikere is a mismatch.

[RuskieTitan]

11 minutes ago, MD4L said:

Kelvin Benjamin v Bene Benwikere is a mismatch.

Absolutely, given how Benjamin has been tearing it up this season, averaging 2 catches for 31 yards per game.

[MD4L]

5 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

Absolutely, given how Benjamin has been tearing it up this season, averaging 2 catches for 31 yards per game.

4/55/1 TD is a reasonable statline.

[Whicker]

Nope I'm not going to say anything.

[TedLavie]

This one is quite simple. I like Albert Wilson as much as anyone, but MD4L asks him to carry his passing offense with Julio completely shut down (I expect). It's a bit too hard, even though I don't like any OKC corner aside from PP. Cuba will be able to have a decent day running the ball, but not enough. And their secondary is depleted. Daring OKC to beat you with Woods or Stills can work, but not with Anthony Brown and Kenny More as the outside corners.

OKC 31 - Cuba 13

[MD4L]

1 hour ago, Whicker said:

Nope I'm not going to say anything.

None of it is personal, so say it. 

[Whicker]

2 hours ago, MD4L said:

None of it is personal, so say it. 

My original post said "Cuba going with the abridged version of the Dingo catch all" which I decided wasn't funny. 

I think your defense against me sounds good in your gameplan, but that's because you're basically saying "this is a threat, we're going to shut it down" without saying how. You want to double Thielen (while blitzing the CB assigned to him), give safety help to your RCB, give help to Anthony Brown against Stills, all while bringing extra guys to the LOS for blitzes and somehow also covering Joe Mixon, Jesse James, and letting Derwin play the run. 

[MD4L]

43 minutes ago, Whicker said:

My original post said "Cuba going with the abridged version of the Dingo catch all" which I decided wasn't funny. 

I think your defense against me sounds good in your gameplan, but that's because you're basically saying "this is a threat, we're going to shut it down" without saying how. You want to double Thielen (while blitzing the CB assigned to him), give safety help to your RCB, give help to Anthony Brown against Stills, all while bringing extra guys to the LOS for blitzes and somehow also covering Joe Mixon, Jesse James, and letting Derwin play the run. 

My gameplans would be much more lengthy in word count.

Playing zone is clearly not man. Iloka as a spy keeps Thomas Davis as patrol over the middle of the field. Thielen is being paid attention to from LBs, nickel CB, and just about everyone not playing the boundary(unless he plays there). When he is outside the FS (Joyner) would help the boundary CB. Callahan isn’t going to blitz every play (which is why it is outlined). Iloka by the same token will have plays when he isn’t assigned Cam Newton’s legs.

Zone coverage: Thielen is essentially the main read of slot guy, Thomas Davis moves across the field or stays in the proximity of a ten yard range if Thielen runs come backs and deep ins. 

Man coverage: If he’s in the slot, we will use keep Callahan with an occasional double team. Anthony Brown still follows Kenny Stills, and Kenny Moore covers Woods.

In my opinion, it’s not realistic to create reasonable gameplans for every situation I would want to outline because there’s so many scenarios and assignments to take account of, esp situational football. I’m committing hard to stopping Thielen and will let Jesse James beat me.

[DingoLadd]

Gordon being out hurts OKC, but Cuba's secondary gets roasted to a crisp here. OKC also wins in the trenches way more often than not, Cousins+Julio do their best but it's not enough to keep this game close. OKC pulls ahead in the 3rd and wins by 3+ scores.

[Ragnarok]

Two excellent write ups, but OKC is a bit more talented and injuries crush Cuba.