BDL 2018 Week 7: Portland Horned Owls @ Orlando Ospreys

[Whicker]

BDL 2018 Week 7

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

[Whicker]

Portland Offense:

QB1: Patrick Mahomes II
RB1: LeSean McCoy
WR1: Davante Adams
WR2: Tyler Boyd
WR3: Martavis Bryant
TE1: Austin Hooper
LT: Alejandro Villanueva
LG: Clint Boling
C:  Matt Paradis
RG: Will Hernandez
RT: Laremy Tunsil 

Reserves:

QB2: Andy Dalton
RB2: Peyton Barber
RB3: Bilal Powell
WR4: Mohamed Sanu - (Q)
WR5: Zack Pascal
TE2: Charles Clay
OL6: Ben Jones
OL7: Kelvin Beachum

Portland's 4-2-5 Defense:

DE:  Brian Orakpo
3T:  Kawann Short
DT:  DaQuan Jones
DE:  Za'Darius Smith
WLB: Telvin Smith 
MLB: Blake Martinez
CB1: Desmond Trufant
CB2: Jimmy Smith
SCB: Brandon Carr
FS: Glover Quin
SS: Malcolm Jenkins

Reserves:

SLB: Zach Brown
RLB: Vince Williams
CB4: Kareem Jackson
CB5: Johnathan Joeseph
S3:  Jason McCourty
DE3: Shaq Barrett
NT:  Michael Pierce
DL:  Shelby Harris

 

 

 

Orlando Ospreys Lineup

 

Offensive

Philip Rivers, QB

Alvin Kamara, RB

Mike Evans, WR

Willie Snead, WR

Sterling Shepard, WR

Mike Gesicki, TE

Taylor Lewan, LT

Trent Brown, RT

Ali Marpet, RG

Frank Ragnow, LG

Mike Pouncey, C (Limited)

 

Tevin Coleman, RB

Chris Carson, RB

Chris Hogan, WR

Chad Williams, WR

Jonnu Smith, TE

Garett Bolles, OT

Cameron Erving, OG

Nick Martin, C

 

Defensive

T.J. Watt, OLB / DE

Clay Matthews - RDE

Michael Bennett -  LDE

Ndamukong Suh – DT

Kenny Clark – NT

Bobby Wagner – Mike LB

Demario Davis – Will LB

Jalen Ramsey - CB

Kevin King - CB

Tashaun Gipson - SS

Eddie Jackson - FS

 

Emmanuel Ogbah – DE

Tyrone Crawford – DE

Allen Bailey – DT

Christian Kirksey – LB

Fred Warner – LB

Jaire Alexander – CB *INACTIVE*

James Bradberry – CB

Antoine Bethea - SAF

[Whicker]

Motivation:

• We're looking to get our 1st win of the year and ruin Orlando's day with a crushing defeat at home, that all starts in executing the plays and letting the Mahomes Magic work itself.

Portland Offensive Gameplan:

• We're gonna more or less let Mahomes have free reign in the passing game, since this is a revenge game for Mahomes since he was traded from Orlando we'll let him do as he pleases. We'll also focus on getting the ball to our WRs and TEs while keeping a ground game going to keep Orlando from just blitzing every down.

The Passing Game: 

• Mahomes has established himself as the best QB in BDL and will look to prove Orlando was wrong to trade him for pennies on the dollar this week, Mahomes will be be allowed to audible and adjust plays as he sees fit and we'll focus on getting deep against an Orlando secondary lacking the speed to cover our weapons.
• Orlando's edge rushers are quite the fearsome bunch especially since they're starting BDL stud T.J Watt (you're welcome) at OLB, since Orlando came out in a 3-4 base set last week we'll look to take advantage of that as much as possible by taking deep shots as soon whenever they use that defense, if we can't get anything going deep we'll attack the middle of the field specifically targeting Davis. Davante Adams will be our no.1 WR and will be featured heavily, I expect Ramsey who isn't nearly as good as his reputation will cover him.
• Boyd will be our slot WR and he'll see quite a few targets this week, he'll play outside in 2 WR sets and in the slot in 3 wide. In 3 and 4 WR sets  Bryant will be the no.3 and Sanu will be the no.4, we'll take a few deep shots to Bryant to try and take advantage of Orlando's issues in the secondary.
• Austin Hooper will get the nod at TE and will be a do it all TE but he'll mostly be limited to being a check down option for Mahomes and a blocker when needed, he'll get a bunch of targets since we feel he's a mismatch and is finally coming into his own this season after being a 5-50-1 guy for most of his career. Charles Clay will exist as the no.2 TE and will rarely see snaps unless we bring out 2 TE sets.
• We'll feature our RBs in the passing game a bit to keep Orlando guessing, McCoy is healthy and despite being stuck in the bill's "offense" he has played well. Peyton Barber will be our no.2 RB and despite what his stats suggest he is a functional RB who can do all the things required of him, we'll split the touches about 60:40 to keep McCoy fresh and healthy and get Barber some touches so he can shave off some yards on Orlando's defense.
• We'll move the pocket with some bootlegs and use play action quite a bit if we can get the running game going, if we don't get it going then we'll adjust and start supplementing our lack of a running game with a hurry up offense. 

The Running Game:

• LeSean McCoy and Barber will split carries 60:40 with McCoy receiving the major edge in carries and touches, we'll try and establish our running game early to help tire out Orlando's defense for later in the game, we'll leave a RB/TE in to pass protect as needed.

The Blocking:

• In case of injuries, Beachum will play LT/RT, Jones will play C/G. We'll also leave a RB/TE in to pass protect or give extra attention/blocking to a pass rusher if someone proves to be a problem, most likely we'll slide extra protection to T.J Watt whether that's a double team or a RB/TE to help with a chip will vary throughout the game.

TDLR;

• Make Plays on the ball, take advantage of turnovers, Keep the Mahomes Magic going, Get revenge or something, Attack Orlando's LBs in the passing game, get our running game going early and use that to help set up play action. 

Portland Defensive Gameplan:

• We're going to play 2 deep safeties to keep Kamara, Gronk, Evans, Robinson etc. from making big plays down the field. We'll mostly be playing zone coverage while mixing in some man with Cover 3 being our base zone defense and focusing on blitzing Rivers as much as possible.

Pass Coverage: 

• We'll be playing zone defense on 70% of the snaps with a lot of blitzes, we'll probably blitz on at least 40% of the snaps to get after Rivers and disrupt Orlando's offense. Trufant will shadow Evans in both man and zone he'll also get some help over the with Evans for a decent chunk of the game, Jimmy Smith will man the no.2 CB spot and should be able to handle whoever he is assigned to cover on the play. If Evans/Robinson go into the slot the CB/Defender assigned to cover them will follow them into the slot, Brandon Carr otherwise will be the no.3 CB/Slot CB.
• Orlando's offense is overflowing with weapons but they lack protection on the interior and we'll look to take advantage of that with zone blitzes and a lot of different looks in coverage, Rivers is no idiot but he'll have a hard time figuring out our coverage scheme this game since we won't repeat a single coverage play.
• Orlando's offense is a nightmare to cover so we won't give anyone any extra attention instead we'll send 5 or more on 40% of the snaps to get after Rivers and disrupt the play as much as possible, our lineman will go up to tip balls and our LBs will be ready for checkdowns since Rivers tends to do that a lot.
• As mentioned we'll be using 2 deep safeties and a cover 3 base zone defense for most of the game, however since we won't be repeating a single coverage play we'll need to cover our bases and we'll do that by covering Orlando's weapons. Glover Quinn will be tasked with adjusting the pass coverage as needed, I'd expect my front seven should be able to put pressure on Rivers and control the LOS.
• Telvin Smith will be the signal caller on defense and he'll make adjustments if Orlando tries something not outlined in the gameplan. Since we'll be mostly playing zone defense we'll be sending 5 or more for more or less the entire game and I expect we'll get burned but we'll make Orlando hurt just as much as they hurt us. Orakpo+Smith will be able to get after Rivers along with Barrett rotating in, Short+Jones should be able to keep Orlando's inside running game in check and Pierce will rotate in with Jones on running downs/goaline situations.
• Telvin Smith will make adjustments as the signal caller on defense as needed, we'll make sure to give equal attention to Orlando's weapons as well as try to take away River's passing game checkdowns, I assume Orlando will feature Kamara a lot more heavily in the passing game this week with Gronk potentially out and we'll adjust for that by having Martinez/Smith be covering Kamara on every single play, obviously they'll rotate and swap with other defenders depending on the play but Kamara will always have someone covering him. Malcolm Jenkins will cover Gronk in the redzone, but other than that we'll mostly have Jenkins back and let Gronk be Gronk, If Gronk is out Jenkins will move back to his deeper safety role and will more than likely help Trufant cover Evans and slide into his usual role of doing whatever is required on the play.
• Gronk didn't travel with the patriots and if he is out which is looking very likely, we'll put the attention we would've given to him on Kamara and Robinson. Evans will still be doubled for a decent chunk of the game since we feel he's Orlando's biggest threat in the passing game with Gronk most likely out.

Run Defense: 

• Orlando has a solid stable of RBs, Kamara more or less being the perfect satellite back with Freeman being a solid in between the tackles runner. We won't worry too much about the running game since we're focused on taking care of the passing game but we will be blitzing on running downs, so I expect my defense to not get too burned by the running game here.
• Za'Darius Smith stepped up in a huge way last week with 3 sacks, he has earned a starting job opposite Orakpo and has already set/tied a career high in sacks, he'll be a big help in the run game and in getting after the QB.
• Our focus isn't in defending the run it's in defending the pass so don't expect us to sell out to stop it here, we will do the bare minimum to keep them from gashing us in the running game but our goal is to stop the pass and get after Rivers.

TDLR; 

• Play Zone, Win our match-ups, Limit their weapons as much as possible, Blitz on 40% of the snaps, keep them out of the endzone, don't be afraid to give up big plays in favor of turnovers/sacks, Keep Evans+Robinson+Kamara in check.

 

 

Orlando Ospreys

Offensive Game Plan

Scheme: Balanced

Formation:  I Form (2 TE) / Single Set (3 Wide) / Shotgun

This week we’ll focus on ball control and time of possession.  Our opponent has one of the weaker defensive fronts that have been exploited by just about every team in this league. 

Offensive Line

We’ve got some injuries to our normal starters this week, but fill that we can make the adjustments to survive this game.  The 6ft/8in 380lb Trent Brown gets the start at right tackle, while Lane gets a much needed rest to rehab his high ankle sprain.  Starting center Nick Martin will replace Mike Pouncey if he can’t suit up.

Passing

Rivers will be without Rob Gronkowski this week, so we look to keep our offense balanced using double tight end sets, designed to give additional blocking at the LOS as well as  some chip and down the field blocking for Kamara coming out of the back field on crossing, screen and wheel routes.  On 3 wide sets, we feel that our offensive line can hold off their defensive pass rush, giving Rivers adequate time to get deep with Mike Evans, while using the sure handed Sheppard and Snead over the short to mid-range center field, in an attempt to keep their safeties focused on the middle and utilizing the TE in shallow underneath routes.  We’ll maintain a fair amount of pre-snap motion with our tight ends as well as the play action pass to keep this defense guessing.

Rushing

Expect us to churn the yards out in chunks, running to the heavy side of our line, basically some good ole’ Tom Coughlin smash mouth football.  We’ll load up one side up heavy with personnel and run to the side, using Carson and Coleman as much as needed so that Kamara provides us 100% for all 4 quarters. 

In the first half, we look to provide BDL with some good old school football, pounding the rock on first and second downs and looking to burn up as much of the clock as we can.  Opening it up to our passing game and Rivers to exploit a tired Portland front 7 in the second half of the game.

 

Defensive Game Plan

Scheme:  4-2-5 / 43 Base

Portland’s has yet to post a 100 yard rusher, so while we will respect their ability to run the ball our focus will be disrupting the passing game.  So we’ll primarily work out of the nickel defense,  using our base 43 defense on short yardage situations.  Using a solid rotation at every position.  

In the nickel, our defensive front will be Matthews and Watt on the edge and Suh and Clark manning the interior at DT w/ Wagner and Davis at linebacker.

In the base 43, we’ll move Watt to strong side linebacker, and closer to the LOS adding an extra pass rusher and to contain the edge, with Bennett coming on to man the defensive end on the right side.

In either package, we’ll play mostly Cover 1 Man to Man, with Ramsey covering the number 1, King covering #2 and Jaire Alexander covering the slot.  In packages that our opponent puts 4 wide on the field, James Bradberry will come on and replace Wagner.  Single high safety will be Jackson and Gibson getting the responsibility of tight end coverage.  Davis and Wagner will be assigned to keep the running game either on the ground or through the air contained.  

The only real time we’ll shift to zone coverage is when Portland puts two tight ends on the field.  Zone coverage will be press as well as corner blitz packages, with zone blitz packages in the front seven.

Our main focus, is to limit the play making ability of Mahomes by pressuring him into making arrant throws.  We believe we’ve got the pass rushing ability to get pressure on him from our front 4 and using zone blitzing when in zone coverage, we also feel that we can count on some coverage sacks based on the personnel matchups in the secondary.

[ny92mike]

@Whicker

Post title has the incorrect team listed.

[Xmad]

I'd complain about Orlando's lineup because I hate spreadsheet boxes on a forum but the link attachment makes up for it. 

Vote Orlando this week, they deserve it for that. 

But before you vote Orlando, remember Orlando is missing it's best offensive player and is going to play 2 TE sets without their best TE.

[ny92mike]

22 minutes ago, SwoleXmad said:

I'd complain about Orlando's lineup because I hate spreadsheet boxes on a forum but the link attachment makes up for it. 

Vote Orlando this week, they deserve it for that. 

But before you vote Orlando, remember Orlando is missing it's best offensive player and is going to play 2 TE sets without their best TE.

lol....The two TE set is for our rushing game, which Portland isn't defending.  We should have 400 yards rushing this week...haha.

3 hours ago, Whicker said:

Our focus isn't in defending the run it's in defending the pass so don't expect us to sell out to stop it here, we will do the bare minimum to keep them from gashing us in the running game but our goal is to stop the pass and get after Rivers.

 

[Xmad]

6 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

lol....The two TE set is for our rushing game, which Portland isn't defending.  We should have 400 yards rushing this week...haha.

 

Read the gameplan if you think we're not defending the run, we're just going all out on stopping the pass.

You going with 2 TE sets basically says you're running the ball since we all know you're not throwing it to the scrub TEs, thanks for making it easy on my defense.

[ny92mike]

Just now, SwoleXmad said:

Read the gameplan if you think we're not defending the run, we're just going all out on stopping the pass.

You going with 2 TE sets basically says you're running the ball since we all know you're not throwing it to the scrub TEs, thanks for making it easy on my defense.

lol...stop eating paint chips.

[Xmad]

6 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

lol...stop eating paint chips.

[DingoLadd]

Orlando 34-21. Mahomes pulls some magic here but Orlando is able to shut down their passing game pretty quickly, Ramsey erases Adams pretty easily and Portland's RBs are garbage so no run game help for them. 

Portland had a shot with Gronk out but their defensive gameplan makes no sense, you do not blitz veteran QBs that much and win. You can have the best secondary in BDL and your coverage unit will not hold up the entire game. 

[Whicker]

Green Bay was on bye this week and Jaire Alexander was inactive for week 6. He's inactive this week for Orlando.

[Xmad]

2 minutes ago, Whicker said:

Green Bay was on bye this week and Jaire Alexander was inactive for week 6. He's inactive this week for Orlando.

Orlando has 6 DBs active, barely enough for a dime defense when we go 4 wide. 

Orlando's DBs are gonna be gassed by the end of the 3rd, Mahomes Magic is strongest in the 4th. 

[ny92mike]

8 hours ago, Whicker said:

Green Bay was on bye this week and Jaire Alexander was inactive for week 6. He's inactive this week for Orlando.

We really excluding players on bye weeks?

I hadnt heard that before and guessing counselor hadnt either.  Aaron Rogers.

[Whicker]

5 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

We really excluding players on bye weeks?

I hadnt heard that before and guessing counselor hadnt either.  Aaron Rogers.

No. Players who are on bye are treated the exact same as they were the week before. Jaire Alexander was inactive last week so he's inactive this week. 

Thats why IC gets to play Lynch this week despite him clearly being way injured and why I won't get Melvin Gordon next week and so on

[ny92mike]

13 minutes ago, Whicker said:

No. Players who are on bye are treated the exact same as they were the week before. Jaire Alexander was inactive last week so he's inactive this week. 

Thats why IC gets to play Lynch this week despite him clearly being way injured and why I won't get Melvin Gordon next week and so on

Well in that case I believe I listed 3 safeties.  Is that rule posted some place?  If I had known I would have started Haden.