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Mid-Season (Just About) QB Power Rankings


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33 minutes ago, Chiefer said:

That stat isn't true even before the last game. Watch some tape

Funny enough I've seen wide open receivers for years with Alex. He just couldn't either see it, or pull the trigger and hit it

It was true two weeks ago, and I believe I saw on theringer that it was also before Sunday.

I'm not knocking him. So you can relax there.  

But! Having said  that, I absolutely do believe that people need to pump down the hype juuuust a little bit. Mainly those who are touring the kid as the best QB in the entire NFL. That is absurd. 

 

Alex Smith had an incredible statistical year in 2017 , in what was a clear outlier in his career. Before that, the Chiefs offense wasn't THE Chiefs offense. In fact, last year he was playing in actually an inferior offense compared to this year's. Tyreke Hill has made a giant leap, and I know you'll probably point to Mahomes as a big reason, but it's pretty obvious based off his career so far and his play on the field that Hill would be this good almost anywhere. Same with Kelce. Hunt was a rookie still, and Smith didn't have Sammy Watkins as his #4 option on offense either. 

All that and yet Smith went from a league average QB who was never, ever known for moving the ball downfield to a prolific downfield passer. His air yards/attempt was 8.6 compared to his average of 6.8 of his career, yet his comp% was up over 5 points compared to his career average as well. 

I'm pointing this out mostly to prove that Mahomes' stats are not a direct indication of his actual current ability/greatness. He is no doubt one of the most talented young QBs there is.  But I just can't help but shake my head at this talk of him being better than guys like Brady Brees Rivers Wilson etc after 8 freaking games in 2018 in what is clearly an offense that is set up to help the QB succeed in ways that others aren't. 

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2 hours ago, BAConrad said:

It was true two weeks ago, and I believe I saw on theringer that it was also before Sunday.

I'm not knocking him. So you can relax there.  

But! Having said  that, I absolutely do believe that people need to pump down the hype juuuust a little bit. Mainly those who are touring the kid as the best QB in the entire NFL. That is absurd. 

 

Alex Smith had an incredible statistical year in 2017 , in what was a clear outlier in his career. Before that, the Chiefs offense wasn't THE Chiefs offense. In fact, last year he was playing in actually an inferior offense compared to this year's. Tyreke Hill has made a giant leap, and I know you'll probably point to Mahomes as a big reason, but it's pretty obvious based off his career so far and his play on the field that Hill would be this good almost anywhere. Same with Kelce. Hunt was a rookie still, and Smith didn't have Sammy Watkins as his #4 option on offense either. 

All that and yet Smith went from a league average QB who was never, ever known for moving the ball downfield to a prolific downfield passer. His air yards/attempt was 8.6 compared to his average of 6.8 of his career, yet his comp% was up over 5 points compared to his career average as well. 

I'm pointing this out mostly to prove that Mahomes' stats are not a direct indication of his actual current ability/greatness. He is no doubt one of the most talented young QBs there is.  But I just can't help but shake my head at this talk of him being better than guys like Brady Brees Rivers Wilson etc after 8 freaking games in 2018 in what is clearly an offense that is set up to help the QB succeed in ways that others aren't. 

I dispute that but its not exactly a bad thing. Partially scheme, partially Mahomes. Yeah the scheme opens things up but not 99.99% of the time either.

Andy Reid isnt perfect you should know that. Defenses do win sometimes, and mahomes vision, creativity and arm talent make up for it. Not every coverage can last forever.

 

Tyreek worked his butt off thats all him. His route running took a big jump this year. But he was still really good last year(his 2nd with Alex) Alex i think was motivated by Mahomes why he started pushing the ball downfield more. Just like with Kaepernick he thrives on competition and was on his way to a career year before injury.

This offense has actually changed a lot since the Alex days. Similar concepts but Reid knows how to tailor to his QB.

With 26 tds in 8 games id say hes the best QB right now. Well see how he finishes out the season. But hes been outstanding, and even with lesser talent and scheme hed still do great things.

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On 10/29/2018 at 6:40 PM, GSUeagles14 said:

its really simple, they arent pushing the ball downfield, almost literally at all. theyre throwing tons of shorter, easier to complete passes.

That's not true, at least in comparison to last season.

Median CAY (completed air yard) and IAY (intended air yards) are both up this season: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

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1 hour ago, childofpudding said:

That's not true, at least in comparison to last season.

Median CAY (completed air yard) and IAY (intended air yards) are both up this season: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing

????

 

Carrs CAY last year was 5.4, this year its 4.4. His IAY last year was 7.9, this years it 6.0 (dead last in the league). Care to explain how thats up this year?

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3 hours ago, GSUeagles14 said:

????

 

Carrs CAY last year was 5.4, this year its 4.4. His IAY last year was 7.9, this years it 6.0 (dead last in the league). Care to explain how thats up this year?

Ignore me, I've been off all week. Thought you were talkimg about league as a whole, not just OAK

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On 10/30/2018 at 8:41 AM, iknowcool said:

Ability may have been the wrong word, but we can all agree Carr hasn’t played very well this year surely?  Whether it’s his fault or not.  He barely has a positive TD/INT ratio.  His CMP% is the main reason his QBR is above 90 was my point.  

I’m not saying he’s the only one who’s CMP% is inflated, and LIS I don’t think CMP% is a good stat anyway.  I’m just saying that it’s holding guys like him and Eli above 90 when they haven’t exactly performed that well.

Dalton is better across the board than Carr statistically (and clearly has been better through the eye test), but has a lower QB Rating strictly because of CMP%.  That’s just one example.  

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Uhhh. Hasn't played very well based on what? The Raiders losing? Or you breaking down most of his throws and determining he isn't a good quarterback...

He has a very high YPA and is completing most of his passes. The only reason he's not among the leaders in passer rating is that he's made some bad decisions with the ball and some unlucky throws this year. 

Eye test my ***. He doesn't have AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals have more talent on O than the Raiders do. I don't buy that argument one bit, but if it makes you feel better, sure.

Last few years Carr's YPA wasn't good enough. Now his completion percentage is "inflated". I call bull****.

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6 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Uhhh. Hasn't played very well based on what? The Raiders losing? Or you breaking down most of his throws and determining he isn't a good quarterback...

He has a very high YPA and is completing most of his passes. The only reason he's not among the leaders in passer rating is that he's made some bad decisions with the ball and some unlucky throws this year. 

Eye test my ***. He doesn't have AJ Green and Tyler Boyd. The Bengals have more talent on O than the Raiders do. I don't buy that argument one bit, but if it makes you feel better, sure.

Last few years Carr's YPA wasn't good enough. Now his completion percentage is "inflated". I call bull****.

"If it makes you feel better"  Dude, what are you talking about?  Why would I care either way about Derek Carr?

I've said that "ability" may have been the wrong word to use initially.  My judgment was partially based off what I've seen.  Obviously I haven't seen the vast majority of his snaps, but I've seen numerous Raiders fans on this site say the same thing.  You can't just treat his bad decisions like a side-note - a 10 to 8 TD/INT ratio is not good, and while his Y/A is high, his TD% is terrible.  Stats aren't everything, so maybe I could be wrong, but I feel confident in saying Carr has not been one of the better QBs this season.  There wouldn't be so much talk of moving him otherwise.

The entire point I was making is that the 90 QB Rating barrier is no longer exclusive to QBs playing at a high level.  Even if you disagree with the notion that Carr isn't playing well (fair enough, you've seen more of Carr than I have), I don't see how you could think he's playing anywhere close to a high level.  The primary reason his QB rating is above a 90 is because he has an abnormally high CMP%.  Even if I were to sit here and give him credit and say that the 72% mark (which, if the season ended today, would be the 2nd highest of all-time... but you're telling me it isn't inflated) is an accurate representation of his accuracy rather than an outlier/based around his throw selection, it isn't as if it is accomplishing much for the team (Raiders are 22nd in passing touchdowns, 26th in interceptions).  

Derek Carr is essentially performing at Sam Bradford's level, except he's turning the ball over at a far higher rate.  

I have to ask.  Where do you think Carr ranks among QBs this season?  Just off the top of my head, here are the guys who I'd have a hard time believing you would rank or could argue ranking Carr over (I won't even list Andy Dalton since you seem to be implying that Carr has looked better this year, which I find to be odd but fair enough):

Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick* 

That puts Carr, at best, as 17th in the league (w/o including Dalton, so really 18th).  Then you got your guys like Prescott and Tannehill who you could go either way with vs Carr.  The only QBs that puts him clearly ahead are the Case Keenum's and Blake Bortles of the world.  So how is me saying he's not playing very well, or at least not to the point he belongs in a discussion about QBs having good seasons, outlandish?  He does not deserve to be used as an example of high-level QB play this season, which was really my main point.

* I wouldn't take Fitzpatrick over Carr in the grand scheme of things, but he's undeniably been better between the two this season

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11 hours ago, iknowcool said:

"If it makes you feel better"  Dude, what are you talking about?  Why would I care either way about Derek Carr?

I've said that "ability" may have been the wrong word to use initially.  My judgment was partially based off what I've seen.  Obviously I haven't seen the vast majority of his snaps, but I've seen numerous Raiders fans on this site say the same thing.  You can't just treat his bad decisions like a side-note - a 10 to 8 TD/INT ratio is not good, and while his Y/A is high, his TD% is terrible.  Stats aren't everything, so maybe I could be wrong, but I feel confident in saying Carr has not been one of the better QBs this season.  There wouldn't be so much talk of moving him otherwise.

The entire point I was making is that the 90 QB Rating barrier is no longer exclusive to QBs playing at a high level.  Even if you disagree with the notion that Carr isn't playing well (fair enough, you've seen more of Carr than I have), I don't see how you could think he's playing anywhere close to a high level.  The primary reason his QB rating is above a 90 is because he has an abnormally high CMP%.  Even if I were to sit here and give him credit and say that the 72% mark (which, if the season ended today, would be the 2nd highest of all-time... but you're telling me it isn't inflated) is an accurate representation of his accuracy rather than an outlier/based around his throw selection, it isn't as if it is accomplishing much for the team (Raiders are 22nd in passing touchdowns, 26th in interceptions).  

Derek Carr is essentially performing at Sam Bradford's level, except he's turning the ball over at a far higher rate.  

I have to ask.  Where do you think Carr ranks among QBs this season?  Just off the top of my head, here are the guys who I'd have a hard time believing you would rank or could argue ranking Carr over (I won't even list Andy Dalton since you seem to be implying that Carr has looked better this year, which I find to be odd but fair enough):

Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick* 

That puts Carr, at best, as 17th in the league (w/o including Dalton, so really 18th).  Then you got your guys like Prescott and Tannehill who you could go either way with vs Carr.  The only QBs that puts him clearly ahead are the Case Keenum's and Blake Bortles of the world.  So how is me saying he's not playing very well, or at least not to the point he belongs in a discussion about QBs having good seasons, outlandish?  He does not deserve to be used as an example of high-level QB play this season, which was really my main point.

* I wouldn't take Fitzpatrick over Carr in the grand scheme of things, but he's undeniably been better between the two this season

4

He's been about league average right now, but almost all the quarterbacks you listed above him are in better offensive situations. Can you deny that?

I will give you an easy example. If the Rams play the Raiders again tomorrow, and you swap Derek Carr and Jared Goff, who will win the game?

 

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18 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

He's been about league average right now, but almost all the quarterbacks you listed above him are in better offensive situations. Can you deny that?

I will give you an easy example. If the Rams play the Raiders again tomorrow, and you swap Derek Carr and Jared Goff, who will win the game?

 

I'm not arguing that though.  You guys are taking it the wrong way.  All I said was Carr does not belong in the group of QBs that are playing at a high-level his season.  That his 90+ QB rating is doesn't prove that.  I'm not saying it is his fault.  I already said using the word "ability" may have been the wrong word to use initially.  I'm saying he hasn't played at a high level this season.  So what are ya'll disagreeing with? 

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16 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

I'm not arguing that though.  You guys are taking it the wrong way.  All I said was Carr does not belong in the group of QBs that are playing at a high-level his season.  That his 90+ QB rating is doesn't prove that.  I'm not saying it is his fault.  I already said using the word "ability" may have been the wrong word to use initially.  I'm saying he hasn't played at a high level this season.  So what are ya'll disagreeing with? 

Of course he's not playing at a HIGH level. He's not a top 10 quarterback right now. But when people start saying he needs to be replaced, or that he's in the bottom tier, I lose my ****.

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11 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Of course he's not playing at a HIGH level. He's not a top 10 quarterback right now. But when people start saying he needs to be replaced, or that he's in the bottom tier, I lose my ****.

 Dude he looks like Alex Smith you gotta replace him. For your own sanity.

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12 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Of course he's not playing at a HIGH level. He's not a top 10 quarterback right now. But when people start saying he needs to be replaced, or that he's in the bottom tier, I lose my ****.

I don't know why you get mad at people saying that.

Some of the problems are on Carr. Yes, he doesn't have the greatest protection. But he is also checking down even when the rush isn't there. Some of the intereptions are from him making poor decisions (ex. red zone INT against the Chargers). Good QBs can elevate poor surroundings and Carr isn't doing that at the moment.  

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6 hours ago, game3525 said:

I don't know why you get mad at people saying that.

Some of the problems are on Carr. Yes, he doesn't have the greatest protection. But he is also checking down even when the rush isn't there. Some of the intereptions are from him making poor decisions (ex. red zone INT against the Chargers). Good QBs can elevate poor surroundings and Carr isn't doing that at the moment.  

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Like all quarterbacks? You can't throw downfield when your protection isn't holding up, hence getting the ball out fast. We protected Carr last week and he played great. Almost all the quarterbacks mentioned who are considered among the best have more talent around them so they really don't need to "elevate anything". 

GREAT quarterbacks (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, etc.) elevate poor surroundings.  Obviously Carr isn't great. Not many quarterbacks are great. Good quarterbacks need talent around them to play well. I would put the vast majority of good starters in that category, Rivers included. He's playing with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, and Melvin Gordon. Clearly he isn't holding them back, but the talent around him is also responsible for his current success. You put him in the current Raiders offense and he isn't Phillip rivers.

6 hours ago, Chiefer said:

 Dude he looks like Alex Smith you gotta replace him. For your own sanity.

He really doesn't. But again, he doesn't have the Chiefs offense around him.  Again, he looked pretty good 2 years ago with better protection and receivers (and no run game) and they were nowhere near as talented as the 2018 chiefs with Reid. But sure, replace Carr. He's clearly the problem on the current Raiders :S.

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