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GDT: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

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Your Denver Broncos will be on the road at Arrowhead Stadium playing the best team in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Date/Time: Sunday, 10/28/18 at 10AM PST

Broadcast: CBS

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium; Kansas City, MO. 54 Fahrenheit and wind speed is projected to be 13-15 NW.

Records: Denver Broncos (3-4) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-1)

 

I’llty to write up matchups later this week.

Please share your thoughts below!

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One of my little brothers is living in KC right now so I'm flying out for the weekend and game. Just hoping it's not a blowout, but I'm not expecting too much lol 

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As we showed last time we played them, we actually match up very well vs. KC.   Sadly, though, we also won't catch Reid off-guard, and we lose HFA, which is a huge swing (the OL gets a half-beat later to get off ball, our D doesn't have that advantage vs. their OL). 

So, keys to the game...

1.  Our pass rush getting to Mahomes, but keeping him in the pocket - it's clear the only way you get Mahomes to make mistakes is getting to him.   CIN played off coverage, and they got shredded.  The 2 games where Mahomes made mistakes - NE & us, where we sent pressure in waves (NE used the blitz, and KC's losing Lavernay-Tardif at G, they attacked hard inside).   Mahomes is clearly the MVP right now, but he's also still prone to bad decisions - but we have to pressure him to get those bad decisions.   Mahomes was just god-like, so I don't fault the pass rush for not getting there,  Von normally has 2+ sacks that night on a human not named Mahomes/healthy ARod/Wilson.   But, the one area the pass rush can improve on - containment.  When you let Mahomes break out of the pocket, he becomes even deadlier.  Pressure AND containment are key here. 

2.  Our pass coverage - Roby played out of his mind last time.  He really didn't have much to do vs. ARI, but his performance against NYJ/LAR was just an abomination.  And doesn't sound like Pacman will be ready, or very limited if he is, so we again have 2 WR-CB matchups that worry us.  And then we add Kelce and Hunt in the pass game (as they are using Hunt more, finally clueing in that Spencer Ware isn't good enough to keep Hunt off the field except for rest / change-of-pace).   So yeah, huge problems if our pass game doesn't get there early.  One thing ppl forget - Sammy Watkins left the game really early.  That allowed us to focus solely on Tyreek Hill (and why key plays went to guys like Demarcus Robinson and Demetrius Harris, instead of Watkins, although Harris probably would have still made that key final drive catch, they use a fair amount of 12 personnel).   That won't happen this time, which means our 2nd and 3rd CB's have to be really good to great.  Tall order.

3.  Our OL vs. their limited pass rush - Justin Houston ate Bolles' breakfast last game and IIRC Chris Jones Veldheer early (Billy Turner did OK, but not surprisingly has regresssed since being forced to start).  Dee Ford was not even close to 100 percent, but McGovern did a good job against him IIRC.  Veldheer's still out, so that's a huge issue.  It's telling, because really KC relies on those 2 guys alone for pass rush, and frankly, Houston's lost a step, and is nowhere near the threat he used to be, and Ford was not 100 percent when they played us.  So now Ford is 100 percent, and Turner's our RT (Houston missed the CIN game, so don't know where he's at this week yet).  So yeah, this is a big issue.

4.  Our run game being used - pretty obvious that the KC D has real trouble stopping the run. The issue is that when you get down 2+ scores, teams have to catch up.  Freeman's ankle sprain, if it's a HAS, well, he's not playing.  If he's not, then we need to use Lindsay more than ideally wanted, and likely have to use Booker to spell him.  If Freeman's ankle is a low-ankle variety, he could play.   I'm actually hoping they will sit Freeman lol (see below).

5.  Winning on ST / field position / being TO-neutral - when we are the dog, ST and field position are the only ways (along with TO's, but everyone knows that) to keep it closer.  It may not matter so much with KC's juggernaut O, they just get more chunk plays lol. But if we lose the TO/Field position game, we're toast.   This is a huge problem when KC's ST unit is a top 3 unit overall. 

6.  Keeping it close so Reid's poor clock management / in-game play calling & adjustments hurt KC - Reid is literally the best coach at game prep during the week, and in player development - it's why his coaches do so well when they move on elsewhere.   And he's a master in player development (especially QB).   It's becoming clearer that Alex Smith's limitations held Reid's imagination back, than the other way around.  But like any HC, Reid has weaknesses.   One, he tends to get way too cute in-game - reverses & flea flickers on 3rd and 2 in past key moments when the run game has killed it, and just abysmal clock management.  It's killed him in the playoffs so many times, when games are close and teams are evenly matched.  It nearly killed him vs. us.   But if the game's a blowout, you don't see it.  But if the game is kept within a score by 4Q, then that's where Reid's weaknesses actually come out.  

5 problems as I see it:

1.  Reid's pre-game planning and preparation - After playing us, Reid can plan for our weaknesses after seeing  a game's worth of film, and adjust to what we did.  During the week, there's no better coach (but he struggles in-game, gets too cute, and is absolutely awful at clock management in close games - 10 mins to drive for a TD down by 2 scores to NE in the AFCG so many years ago was the crowning moment).     

2.  Case Keenum still sucks - the ARI game result masked that Keenum was actually no better - and frankly, if anything, showed more regression.  The sacks, about 3-4 throwaways, and the INT were ALL on him.  ARI's O was just so bad, and got behind 3 scores so early, it didn't matter.  

3.  Playing @ KC - the early start, the noise factor (which makes our OL a half-beat slower vs. their pass rush & their OL a half-beat faster vs. Von & co.), and the lack of altitude to gas the KC skill players, those are huge swings in favor of KC...which then brings up....

4. Talent - KC is just more talented than we are overall across the board.  We have 3 matchups that give them fits that kept it super-close last time (our run game, Sanders/DT/Sutton vs. their secondary, and our pass rush vs. their OL).  The problem is that 2 of them will be neutralized by noise (as our OL gets off slower,on O with their raucous noise  and their OL won't be that half-beat slower when they were facing us at Mile High).   Dee Ford is now healthy, so they get 3 guys too (unless Justin Houston is not ok). 

5. The win-now mindset has to go - it's great to hear that DT and Roby and Marshall are available for trade.  It means that the FO realizes 2019 is most likely our window.  This should be a nobrainer, but then we get statements like this from Klis (who remember, is the FO's mouthpiece and media conduit to the public):

Now, all of the above is the objective view.   As you all know, I'm all for 2019+, always have been.  So, if we want Elway & co. to make sure we are ALL IN for 2019 - we need a convincing L.   So while it hurts me to root for the L against a division rival, well, it's for the best.  So, here's hoping for a 38-17 type L, so Elway can remove the premise of any hope still being around.   Let's get on to 2019+ mode in public, no need to play the PR games.

Edited by Broncofan

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With everything happening this week, and us as heavy dogs..well, no surprise the GDT isn't getting much run.  But there's injury news...

If we had Cravens back, with Stewart out, it would be nice to give him more time to see how he could adapt to SS...but man, this is going to be ugly if our TE / RB coverage is even worse than usual. 

No Hamilton doesn't really hurt us much except on ST's with DT/Sanders/Sutton still around - but man, this is probably McKenzie's last chance, any more fumbles / brain cramps, and it's probably game over.  

Edited by Broncofan

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7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

With everything happening this week, and us as heavy dogs..well, no surprise the GDT isn't getting much run.  But there's injury news...

If we had Cravens back, with Stewart out, it would be nice to give him more time to see how he could adapt to SS...but man, this is going to be ugly if our TE / RB coverage is even worse than usual. 

No Hamilton doesn't really hurt us much except on ST's with DT/Sanders/Sutton still around - but man, this is probably McKenzie's last chance, any more fumbles / brain cramps, and it's probably game over.  

Firing up Sanders with confidence in fantasy as Denver is gonna have to score 30 to even make the score respectable I think

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8 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Firing up Sanders with confidence in fantasy as Denver is gonna have to score 30 to even make the score respectable I think

Sanders, and with Freeman confirmed out, Lindsay for sure.  I even have a DFS stack with Keenum/Sanders/Lindsay/Hunt  (salary matters there, and garbage time is garbage time, not the quality of play lol).

 

 

Edited by Broncofan

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It’s quite a week when the Forum has 4-5 threads on Kelly / ownership / trade deadline that overshadows an intradividional game.   Shows how low our expectations must be this week.  

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If we magically win this game Vance keeps his job for the the rest of the season regardless of the other games outcomes 

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26 minutes ago, Counselor said:

If we magically win this game Vance keeps his job for the the rest of the season regardless of the other games outcomes 

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