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AFlaccoSeagulls

Midseason Evaluations and Notes

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1 hour ago, Danand said:

The coaching staff have developed players drafted in the later rounds into solid starters or rotational players. Not many of them could be considered among the best in the NFL at their position though and while Brandon Williams plays well, he isn't the guy that can hold himself alone in the running game or make the crucial sack when the game needs to be closed.

I think that's true, it's just not really saying much to say we are able to turn guys into rotational players and it doesn't distinguish our coaches from most staffs in the NFL. And it's not doing enough to get this team over the hump in a substantive way. We basically seem to do a really good job of developing inside linebackers (although oddly enough not with the ones we've spent the most draft capital on) but everything else seems average, at best, if we're comparing us to other teams. 

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5 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Mosley has been that bad hey?

If I get a chance to review the All-22 this week and make gifs of it I'll tag you of just how bad he truly was this past week. But yes, it's really bad.

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I am kinda surprised that so many are surprised at how mediocre this team is right now.  Didn't most people think that this was a 8-8/9-7 type team?

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6 hours ago, drd23 said:

I am kinda surprised that so many are surprised at how mediocre this team is right now.  Didn't most people think that this was a 8-8/9-7 type team?

I thought that about us last year. This year I thought we could be contenders - again if we invested in the oline and didn't go with 3 backup type starters. We got Brown which I liked, but I was a hard opponent on another great oline shuffle.

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6 hours ago, drd23 said:

I am kinda surprised that so many are surprised at how mediocre this team is right now.  Didn't most people think that this was a 8-8/9-7 type team?

I thought we were 8-8 at the start of the year before games, but then I became a believer in Wink. Oh boy was I wrong.

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5 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I thought we were 8-8 at the start of the year before games, but then I became a believer in Wink. Oh boy was I wrong.

Meh. He’s had one truly bad game at coach. Heading into this game we were the top defense in the league. Sure we feasted on the Bills and Titans, but we also played the Raven killer Andy Dalton, Big Ben, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees. What’s more moving forward besides Mahomes and Rivers, I’m not shivering at the prospect of the remaining QBs. Looks quite similar as the first half, only with more home games.

In terms of this season’s expectations, I don’t think 10-6 is the standard to make the playoffs in such a tightly contested race. I think 9-7 will be the spot that secures playoffs and in the AFCN I see that being the record that both clinched the division title as well as makes the wildcard. What will be important about the upcoming batch of games is I think we need to win the tie breakers to get the division title and that’s why the following two games will be key.

That said, moving forward I like our chances with at least splitting our next two division games. Then I like our chances at beating the Raiders (at home), Falcons (good matchup), Bucs (Home), and Browns (home). I expect a Chargers loss (always a tight game but it’s in prime time). I also feel we play the Chiefs well historically. Thus I’d put our chances at winning that game at about 40%. So I still see us as a 9-7/10-6 team.

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@diamondbull424

But how is this defense different from any Dean Pees defense, when it all boils down? We're feasting on bad QB's (just like Dean Pees), refusing to play young guys (just like Dean Pees), and getting embarrassed by any team with a halfway decent QB/offense that's not Pittsburgh (just like Dean Pees). Maybe things'll change down the stretch, but there's nothing to indicate it will.

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13 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

@diamondbull424

But how is this defense different from any Dean Pees defense, when it all boils down? We're feasting on bad QB's (just like Dean Pees), refusing to play young guys (just like Dean Pees), and getting embarrassed by any team with a halfway decent QB/offense that's not Pittsburgh (just like Dean Pees). Maybe things'll change down the stretch, but there's nothing to indicate it will.

Perhaps my idea of “embarrassed” is of a different scale. But the only two games this season that I would say we have been embarrassed was during the first half of that Bengals game when Mosley went out and we had the green dot issue (we clamped down in the second half). And in the entirety of the Panthers game.

Outside of that, we held what was the best offense in the league (not sure if they still are) to their second lowest scoring total of the season and it took them five converted 4th down attempts in the game in a highly aggressive gameplan, to achieve those results.

I don’t believe this defense is the same. It’s much more aggressive, it’s more talented throughout, and has more attitude. The major issue is that we’ve regressed in our corner department with Jimmy clearly not being at his former level (it’s commendable that he would even return this soon in the first place) and Humphrey being out with an undisclosed injury. Also he regression of CJ Mosley has been a huge deterrent in our defensive impact because teams are able to expose him early and often.

But even our 2006 defense had Corey Ivy on it. The way I see it, going into the Saints game I thought this defense might compete with the 2006 defense as our 2nd best unit in Ravens defensive history. We’ve had one horrible defensive showing since then. Thus I’m going to see how this goes. The Bengals game will be the true barometer for our defense. After the bye week, as guys get a chance to recuperate, I’d like to see if they can’t prove to elevate their play back to the elite tier of defense (in terms of today’s NFL standards).

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9 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

Perhaps my idea of “embarrassed” is of a different scale. But the only two games this season that I would say we have been embarrassed was during the first half of that Bengals game when Mosley went out and we had the green dot issue (we clamped down in the second half). And in the entirety of the Panthers game.

Outside of that, we held what was the best offense in the league (not sure if they still are) to their second lowest scoring total of the season and it took them five converted 4th down attempts in the game in a highly aggressive gameplan, to achieve those results.

I don’t believe this defense is the same. It’s much more aggressive, it’s more talented throughout, and has more attitude. The major issue is that we’ve regressed in our corner department with Jimmy clearly not being at his former level (it’s commendable that he would even return this soon in the first place) and Humphrey being out with an undisclosed injury. Also he regression of CJ Mosley has been a huge deterrent in our defensive impact because teams are able to expose him early and often.

But even our 2006 defense had Corey Ivy on it. The way I see it, going into the Saints game I thought this defense might compete with the 2006 defense as our 2nd best unit in Ravens defensive history. We’ve had one horrible defensive showing since then. Thus I’m going to see how this goes. The Bengals game will be the true barometer for our defense. After the bye week, as guys get a chance to recuperate, I’d like to see if they can’t prove to elevate their play back to the elite tier of defense (in terms of today’s NFL standards).

Problem is the 2006 defense also had prime Suggs, who was clutch and an animal pass rusher, prime Ray Lewis who is the GOAT, and prime Ed Reed who is the GOAT.

Tell me, if the game is on the line who on this team is going to step up and make a play? Aside from Suggs, I don't see anyone capable. I mean heck, the answer is almost Anthony Levine and he rarely plays.

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8 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Problem is the 2006 defense also had prime Suggs, who was clutch and an animal pass rusher, prime Ray Lewis who is the GOAT, and prime Ed Reed who is the GOAT.

Tell me, if the game is on the line who on this team is going to step up and make a play? Aside from Suggs, I don't see anyone capable. I mean heck, the answer is almost Anthony Levine and he rarely plays.

Yes and that defense was the second best unit in Ravens history. If this unit had Ray Lewis swapped out for CJ Mosley then we would also be for sure a historically great defense.

But the point is without that, without a true “star” defensive player, this unit is a top 3 defensive unit in the NFL. Great QBs aren’t making this defense look foolish. We got exposed once by a QB in Cam Newton is back to playing his MVP level of football and not the distracted and unfocused brand of football he’s had the past few seasons. His ability to be a dual threat option kept our defense off balance in a way that pocket passers haven’t been able to do.

The only true weakness of this defense is a stud playmaker. Particularly along the DL as a pass rushing force. If we get one of those than everything else will fall into place.

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22 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Yes and that defense was the second best unit in Ravens history. If this unit had Ray Lewis swapped out for CJ Mosley then we would also be for sure a historically great defense.

But the point is without that, without a true “star” defensive player, this unit is a top 3 defensive unit in the NFL. Great QBs aren’t making this defense look foolish. We got exposed once by a QB in Cam Newton is back to playing his MVP level of football and not the distracted and unfocused brand of football he’s had the past few seasons. His ability to be a dual threat option kept our defense off balance in a way that pocket passers haven’t been able to do.

The only true weakness of this defense is a stud playmaker. Particularly along the DL as a pass rushing force. If we get one of those than everything else will fall into place.

That's what we're missing right now. Going into next year and the year after we're also going to be losing Suggs and Weddle, at least. Along with probably Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson and Za'Darius Smith. We need bonafide playmakers at every level. Right now all we have is a bunch of good players.

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4 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Right now all we have is a bunch of good players.

*Good Young Players

Some of the best defenders we have are up there in years, Levine, Suggs, Carr. I fully expect our young core to continue to get better and many of them likely will grow into the play makers we need.

Also, bank on some addition by subtraction. We have a top ranked defense and I think there's multiple 2nd Team Players superior to those starting above them.

 

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1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That's what we're missing right now. Going into next year and the year after we're also going to be losing Suggs and Weddle, at least. Along with probably Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson and Za'Darius Smith. We need bonafide playmakers at every level. Right now all we have is a bunch of good players.

But now we’re getting off topic. The point of my initial contest was that you were gravely wrong about Wink and that this is the same defense as what Pees provided (to paraphrase). Which, again, I’ve outlined why I believe that not to be true. It’s much more aggressive, cohesive, and they’ve been able to more consistently make clutch stops than the units Pees helmed minus the Ray Lewis squads.

In terms of the future I also disagree with your assessment. I see no reason why this team won’t resign Suggs considering he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Weddle has one more season with us and given that he’s a leader of one of the top defensive units and has provided average to above average safety play, I don’t see us cutting him.

In terms of Jimmy, Jefferson, and Smith. I can agree that this might be their final season. Smith is definitely gone for sure. I’d give Jefferson a 70% chance of being cut. And I’d give Jimmy about a 40% chance of being cut. Given the fact that Brandon Carr will be one year older and the durability issues we’ve had at corner and the fact that Jimmys injury was quite serious, the team might opt to bring him back for the final year to let him finish it out and see if he can’t get back to form in the process.

In terms of the near future, this defense has hit on talent in the mid and late rounds to provide one of the best defense’s in the league. I’m sure in the 2020 draft we’ll be targeting defensive backs (given that Jimmy and Weddle will be gone) and added to our current crop of young talent (Humphrey, Young, Elliot, Clark, and Averrett) and that’s an elite unit. At the LBer slot, we have Tim Williams and Tyus Bowser, both of which have flashed pass rushing ability at one point or another. Kenny Young should only improve as well.

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immy is gone by next March if he keeps this level of play up (down?). That cap number could be pretty important if DeCosta actually wants to go after someone in free agency for his first season at the helm. 

I think Carr sticks around either way. He's solid enough to make cutting him unlikely. 

Not sure about Jefferson. I think the team views him way more highly than we do. The cap savings aren't all that impressive either. 

I'd look for Weddle to get a 2 or 3 year extension to lower his cap hit. We know the team loves him. Hopefully Yanda too. Unless he wants to retire just keep paying him. Dude is worth it. And speaking of extensions... maybe Snead? Maybe not, but that's an interesting case to watch.

Crabtree is the only other one worth mentioning (aside from Flacco, don't want to get into that right now though) with a bigger cap number that can be reduced. I don't think he gets released or obviously an extension, but that's a contract I could see a simple restructure happening with. 

And this has been your intermittent coordinator0 cap discussion update. Now back to AFlaccoSeagulls with your regular doom and gloom!

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