Golden Tate traded to Eagles

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said:

There are numerous contracts most likely coming off the books next off-season with potential cuts/retirement. Most notably Peters, Sproles, Ajayi and several other older/expensive Vets. Someone posted in our forum somewhere all the "potential moves" that would open up close to $40+M.

Howie is a Magician when it comes to manipulating the cap. Already Proved that several times over.

 

PHI can clear 35-40M, with a -6-7 M balance that would leave about a 33M balance.  Roseman is likely to spend at least 15-20M on re-signing priority guys like Darby & Hicks, not to mention other glue guys to retain on the roster (much like they did with Bradham this past year).  Then there's about 6-8M that rookies cost.    That leaves less than15-20M for FA - and given PHI's methods that Roseman uses, it likely get 2-3 bargain guys - and they likely lose 2-3 guys who sign for similar $.   Value FA's won't negate the return of a high comp pick when a top FA leaves, it has to be similar to the lost value.  

PHI won't lose a comp pick that Tate gets back if he leaves (and he is very clearly the top WR on the FA market, with a skill set that ages very gracefully, so a 3-4 year deal with 2 guaranteed years and a high AAV is almost certainly a lock barring catastrophic injury this year) - unless they go out and sign a high-priced FA, which isn't Roseman's way.   He'll trade for a splash player if they need to, or get value in the mid-bargain tier (Mike Wallace/Haloti Ngata examples).   That formula preserves their ability to get comp picks, and it's brilliance by design.   Point being, if they let Tate go, their FA approach and cap management preserves the comp picks.   It really is a great example of how Roseman is playing 4D chess (with great roster minds like BB) while most GM's are mastering checkers.

[Nabbs4u]

@Broncofan  Well said! ? ^^^^^^

[childofpudding]

22 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

Lions may not have gotten a comp pick for Tate if they kept him for the rest of the year. They will likely be in the market for a high-priced free agent at a few different spots that would offset losing him. Still not a huge fan of moving him, but if they know that they won't be able to reach a deal then I'm fine with it. He'll probably get like 3/45+ on the open market after this season

I do understand that, but it just seems like a signal that they're conceding the season already. They're 1-0 in the division and only one game back, for crying out loud. I don't know.

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

I do understand that, but it just seems like a signal that they're conceding the season already. They're 1-0 in the division and only one game back, for crying out loud. I don't know.

Having Tate or not though doesn't decide their fate, though.   It's like GB selling Dix.   They have guys who can fill the roles, and they aren't getting even close to the same kind of compensation back.   With the cap extra $ they have, they were for sure not going to get an end-of-3rd back.   

Let's face it, at 3-4, it's bad - the NFC WC is going to be at least 10-6 again this year.   And DET may have 7 games left in-division - but they're decided dogs, now that GB has a healthy ARod and a D that actually can cover the pass.    MIN/CHI are bad, bad matchups.   

Teams that always go for it all-out each year get stuck in mediocrity.   It probably hurt their 30 percent probability of a playoff spot to 25 percent, at most.   But it helped them long-term a lot more. 

[childofpudding]

27 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Having Tate or not though doesn't decide their fate, though.   It's like GB selling Dix.   They have guys who can fill the roles, and they aren't getting even close to the same kind of compensation back.   With the cap extra $ they have, they were for sure not going to get an end-of-3rd back.   

Let's face it, at 3-4, it's bad - the NFC WC is going to be at least 10-6 again this year.   And DET may have 7 games left in-division - but they're decided dogs, now that GB has a healthy ARod and a D that actually can cover the pass.    MIN/CHI are bad, bad matchups.   

Teams that always go for it all-out each year get stuck in mediocrity.   It probably hurt their 30 percent probability of a playoff spot to 25 percent, at most.   But it helped them long-term a lot more. 

I really don't think the Tate and Clinton-Dix trades are analogous. Tate's on pace for a 1,000+ yard season. Clinton-Dix, by most accounts from GB fans, was inconsistent and didn't put in the effort.

I actually think the NFCN is a division that could really be up for grabs this season. No real stand-out team thus far. Losing Tate is a pretty significant blow for that offense, so I think it drops the playoff probability a lot more. I'd say from 25% to less than 10%.

I do see your point about the treadmill, and Detroit's move in light of that.

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

I really don't think the Tate and Clinton-Dix trades are analogous. Tate's on pace for a 1,000+ yard season. Clinton-Dix, by most accounts from GB fans, was inconsistent and didn't put in the effort.

I actually think the NFCN is a division that could really be up for grabs this season. No real stand-out team thus far. Losing Tate is a pretty significant blow for that offense, so I think it drops the playoff probability a lot more. I'd say from 25% to less than 10%.

I do see your point about the treadmill, and Detroit's move in light of that.

It's just that Golladay/Jones are more than capable to take the 1-2 duties..and then TJ Jones or Brandon Powell can be the slot guy.   The reality is that O is becoming more balanced, anyways, with Kerryon Johnson becoming the focus.   Which is what that O needed, they were way too pass heavy.   

I don't think their chances change nearly as much as you believe - I think it's a stretch to even say 5 percent absolute drop IMO.  Put it another way - if Tate had suffered a season-ending injury, I'd have downgraded their chances to a similar extent.    It's just tough from a PR perspective because of the optics that they traded him away.

[childofpudding]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's just that Golladay/Jones are more than capable to take the 1-2 duties..and then TJ Jones or Brandon Powell can be the slot guy.   The reality is that O is becoming more balanced, anyways, with Kerryon Johnson becoming the focus.   Which is what that O needed, they were way too pass heavy.   

I don't think their chances change nearly as much as you believe - I think it's a stretch to even say 5 percent absolute drop IMO.  Put it another way - if Tate had suffered a season-ending injury, I'd have downgraded their chances to a similar extent.    It's just tough from a PR perspective because of the optics that they traded him away.

Yeah, I see your point. Your percentages are a bit off, though. On the one hand you say that DET would have a tough time in the division even with Tate. On the other hand, you give them a 25% chance to win the division without Tate, which is basically even odds with every other team (25% x 4 = 100%). I guess we'll see what happens

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

Yeah, I see your point. Your percentages are a bit off, though. On the one hand you say that DET would have a tough time in the division even with Tate. On the other hand, you give them a 25% chance to win the division without Tate, which is basically even odds with every other team (25% x 4 = 100%). I guess we'll see what happens

I said playoffs, though, not division.  Division I’d have them at 10 percent best case.  

Thinking on the full playoff odds though 30 percent best case might still be too high.   

[DLF54927]

Only chance would be to win the division, and that's unlikely.

Even if you count @Buffalo and @AZ as Ws, and I don't, they'd have to go 5-2 against Vikes x 2, Bears x 2, Carolina, Rams and @GB.

Ain't happening with that defense, with or without Tate.

This is the Lions though, so they probably will go 5-2 in those games and lose the other 2.

[childofpudding]

52 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I said playoffs, though, not division.  Division I’d have them at 10 percent best case.  

Thinking on the full playoff odds though 30 percent best case might still be too high.   

Oh that is true, my bad. I'd still put them at like 10% post trade to make the playoffs

[IDOG_det]

1 hour ago, childofpudding said:

I really don't think the Tate and Clinton-Dix trades are analogous. Tate's on pace for a 1,000+ yard season. Clinton-Dix, by most accounts from GB fans, was inconsistent and didn't put in the effort.

I actually think the NFCN is a division that could really be up for grabs this season. No real stand-out team thus far. Losing Tate is a pretty significant blow for that offense, so I think it drops the playoff probability a lot more. I'd say from 25% to less than 10%.

I do see your point about the treadmill, and Detroit's move in light of that.

Lions have actually been more efficient in 2 WR sets this year compared to 3 WR sets. So, if those numbers hold up and they run mostly out of 21 or 12 personnel, then the Lions offense will theoretically be better without Tate. I don't expect those numbers to hold up, but the Lions offense isn't really designed to use 3 WR sets as often as they have. They ideally will motion a TE/FB/RB or line them up in odd ways to get the defense to declare their coverage, hard to do that with a WR.

[childofpudding]

2 hours ago, IDOG_det said:

Lions have actually been more efficient in 2 WR sets this year compared to 3 WR sets. So, if those numbers hold up and they run mostly out of 21 or 12 personnel, then the Lions offense will theoretically be better without Tate. I don't expect those numbers to hold up, but the Lions offense isn't really designed to use 3 WR sets as often as they have. They ideally will motion a TE/FB/RB or line them up in odd ways to get the defense to declare their coverage, hard to do that with a WR.

Ah, good to know. Even so, it's good to have a pretty sure-handed 1000yd WR in that rotation of 2WR sets. I may be overstating how much they will miss him, but youre talkimg about Jones and Golloway being out there for every snap, with some other WR (idk who) coming in when they do run 11 personnel

[Art_Vandalay]

On 10/30/2018 at 12:17 PM, BAConrad said:

I think the market was skewed by Dallas's stupidity tbh.

Teams were likely asking for the moon for their WRs.

Tate is still a very good receiver. And Agholor has not been playing anywhere near the level he'd need to justify not upgrading the position just because it means moving him (Agholor) outside. 

I like this trade a lot. Tate is 30, sure, but he's still very much playing at his best. He is a monster after the catch, which is something we really needed at receiver. AN and Ertz aren't exactly known for their YAC.

Now we have someone who can take a quick throw and turn it into a big gain.

Compare him to what Agholor has been this year (not great), and Jordan Matthews who basically just catches the ball and runs sideways out of bounds or gets tackled immediately. It's night and day

I'm not saying I don't love Tate. He's now our 2nd best WR and he'll put up numbers. But there's two ways this becomes a good trade. 1) We repeat and 2) we extend Tate. If neither of those happen, it's a bad trade.

[Broncofan]

24 minutes ago, Art_Vandalay said:

I'm not saying I don't love Tate. He's now our 2nd best WR and he'll put up numbers. But there's two ways this becomes a good trade. 1) We repeat and 2) we extend Tate. If neither of those happen, it's a bad trade.

There is a clear 3rd way 3) Let Tate walk, and he nets you and end-of-3rd or end-of-4th 2020 comp pick.  I actually think given he's the very clear top WR on the market, end-of-3rd is most likely.    If you guys make the playoffs (and I think you will), then you are talking a drop of 10-15 spots....waiting an extra year.  

If you watch the JAX game, you will see that Ertz got doubled almost every passing down on 2nd/3rd.   Agholor just doesn't create any fear.   Tate will command enough respect that Ertz won't see nearly as many double-teams.    Jeffery, Ertz & Tate now form a trio of receivers that the D has to account for (and Goedert when he's in 12 formation).   Your O just got a LOT more multi-faceted.   If a D had a shutdown perimeter corner (like JAX), they can just double Ertz, and your top weapons are neutralized.   Now, you have 3 weapons that are real matchup problems vs. most D's.   Even against playoff-caliber D's, this is a HUGE problem now.    And again, this is likely for a half-round move down, 1 year apart - or at worst, 1.5 rounds down from late rd to end of Round 4.    Honestly, for a contender, it's a no-brainer price to pay.

[DLF54927]

Miss the playoffs, lose the player traded for and get back a lower draft pick not one, but two drafts later? 

4D chess, baby.