Broncos VS Texans GDT

[AKRNA]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

So we have posts that ask not to rehash Rosen vs. Chubb on every thread - only to have people ask the Q over & over again.    Which is totally fine - but then stop having posts that ask we stop having the debate on so many threads.     As someone who's said my piece, I have no problem not rehashing the debate - but that applies to both sides - if people are tired of having the Chubb vs. QB debate...well, stop asking the Q or making the pro-Chubb argument, otherwise you're going to get the flip side, being that it's a forum for discussion.   Either way is good, but really we can't have it both ways..

Pick and choose, people. 

 

Lighten up.  AAA needed a straight man so I stepped up.

Personally I think speculation based on hypotheticals is kind of a waste of time.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Lighten up.  AAA needed a straight man so I stepped up.

Personally I think speculation based on hypotheticals is kind of a waste of time.

To be fair to you, it wasn't you that made that comment, but it's a pet peeve to try & have it both ways, so all good.  Bygones.

[BroncoBruin]

What if I said there was a QB who COULD be available next year who is a world class athlete, throws with touch and anticipation, has all the arm strength you'd ask for paired with a lightning quick release, and there's a good chance he'd be there at the end of the 1st/top of the 2nd. 

If he can be talked out of baseball, some forward-thinking coach will take a chance on developing Kyler Murray and it will be a nightmare for NFL defenses. I'm more excited about that potential than whatever 6'5" stiff comes along in the process and brainwashes front offices with how he looks in shorts. 

[broncofan48]

17 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

What if I said there was a QB who COULD be available next year who is a world class athlete, throws with touch and anticipation, has all the arm strength you'd ask for paired with a lightning quick release, and there's a good chance he'd be there at the end of the 1st/top of the 2nd. 

If he can be talked out of baseball, some forward-thinking coach will take a chance on developing Kyler Murray and it will be a nightmare for NFL defenses. I'm more excited about that potential than whatever 6'5" stiff comes along in the process and brainwashes front offices with how he looks in shorts. 

If Elway did this and the kid still stayed with baseball I’d be fine with that.  It’s a risk worth taking vs the typical he man looking guy we will inevitably end up taking

[The Helicopter]

2 hours ago, champ11 said:

Yeah I think using a pick on a QB in the first three rounds that you like could be smart. I'd probably prefer the third if the board works out like that. Just so you can throw him out there at some point in the year even if they are your backup of the future. Good thought 

We should consider using all our pics next year on QB's, maybe trade for some HC talent while we're at it. This ship is going to sink so fast...we didn't waste one year, we wasted 4+.

Ugh, this could go on for awhile...Spumoni! Panic!

[BroncoBruin]

17 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

If Elway did this and the kid still stayed with baseball I’d be fine with that.  It’s a risk worth taking vs the typical he man looking guy we will inevitably end up taking

Right. I think that's a totally appropriate gamble. 

It won't be easy to lure him away from baseball, but I do think the way his choice is being framed is a little dishonest. Now, the injury risk difference is real, of course. But people talk about the money he can make in baseball as some sure thing. Yes, if he ends up being an All-Star player, he can make fully guaranteed franchise QB APY money. You can't beat that. But the path to that is not easy and at the very least, 5+ years away. Bryce Harper is going to finally get a mega-contract in baseball after seven seasons. It's a lot more straight forward of a path for a QB. He may sit for a season but the team will give him every chance to take over and within a few years he'll be in line to be paid big money if he's even league average, at the most premier position in sports. 

[broncofan48]

15 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Right. I think that's a totally appropriate gamble. 

It won't be easy to lure him away from baseball, but I do think the way his choice is being framed is a little dishonest. Now, the injury risk difference is real, of course. But people talk about the money he can make in baseball as some sure thing. Yes, if he ends up being an All-Star player, he can make fully guaranteed franchise QB APY money. You can't beat that. But the path to that is not easy and at the very least, 5+ years away. Bryce Harper is going to finally get a mega-contract in baseball after seven seasons. It's a lot more straight forward of a path for a QB. He may sit for a season but the team will give him every chance to take over and within a few years he'll be in line to be paid big money if he's even league average, at the most premier position in sports. 

Yeah by the time he could actually get that Bryce Harper money he would be well into his 2nd NFL contract.

How do entry level NFL vs MLB contracts stack up?

[BroncosFan2010]

I agree w/ the Kyler idea. This team is going to have to get creative if we want to secure a franchise QB. I would take him R1 and just cross my fingers he decides to play football. A 10-20% chance at a franchise QB is better than taking some OL that has a 60% chance at succeeding IMO.

Especially after the last 4 years of QB hell.

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Yeah by the time he could actually get that Bryce Harper money he would be well into his 2nd NFL contract.

How do entry level NFL vs MLB contracts stack up?

It all depends on where a guy slots in MLB & NFL wise.

The problem with the MLB 6-year service time argument - they really only need 2+ seasons before they start making 5-10M a year if they're just good, and 15-20M if they are great.  And unlike the NFL, MLB contracts are FULLY guaranteed once signed.     A typical MLB career for a good player, once you're more than JAG, can go 7-12 seasons...of  which the last 8+ are very lucrative.   If you are ARod, sure, you've made more.  But let's say you are just an average MLB pitcher, but you last 8 seasons of peak ability - you probably sign a 4-year 100M contract in Year 7-8 (and the last 2 years are duds).   And if you were good from Year 3 on, you will make 8M Year 3, 10-12M Year 4, 14-16 Year 5, and 20M Year 6.    And that's fully guaranteed $, too.   And then if you are a guy who can stay in the league for 2 FA contracts, making 150-250M isn't that hard.   Ridiculous how much a 12 year MLB pitcher makes. 

And let's face it, baseball has zero risk of CTE, and your body doesn't get put through a meat grinder.     The football-QB-pays-more narrative only works if you don't believe you can be a MLB-caliber starting SP.  If you can be a MLB-caliber starting pitcher, even the 3rd-4th starter on those teams makes 15M+ easy.   The top guys make 20-25M a year...and that's FULLY guaranteed once they get there.   And in their arbitration years, from Super-2 to year 6, they are on a multi-million dollar scale...and can't get pay cuts either, unless a team cuts them and lets them walk.

It's RIDICULOUS how the NFL is so team-friendly with non-guaranteed contracts for players, and the low scale guys get if they aren't a top 10 NFL pick.   There may be lots of reasons to get a Kyler Murray interested in football, but the $$ angle won't be a big seller. 

[BroncoBruin]

Looks to me like it's generally 3-4 years of MLB service...plus whatever amount of time they spend in the minors, before the arbitration money starts to look good on a year-to-year basis. 

[BroncoBruin]

Would be nice if there was some way for Kyler to bypass the draft altogether and just sign a contract with a team that buys out his A's deal...but I don't think there's any loophole to exploit there and he'd be exposed to the draft no matter what. But it would be a major coup if they could use a little misdirection to keep other teams away so they could take him in the second round. Potential QB solution while still going BPA and getting a top 10 overall talent in the first round. 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Looks to me like it's generally 3-4 years of MLB service...plus whatever amount of time they spend in the minors, before the arbitration money starts to look good on a year-to-year basis. 

For sure, for 3 years max, it's min wage (500K or 1M if a team really loves you).  But much like the NFL, there's a fairly hefty signing bonus.  But there's a clause that the top 22 percent of those with 2 years service-time become arbitration-eligible after Year 2 - the "Super-2" clause.  It's why you see elite FA's get their callups in late May / June - teams are trying to avoid to start that clock a year early.

The bigger problem is that once you get into arbitration, unless a team is willing to cut you, it's all guaranteed raises for Years 3-6...and then in FA, it's multi-year, major guaranteed money, full contract.   So a guy like Felix Hernandez at age 33 - he's made 220M+, not including endorsements.     And it's not even elite guys - Cole Hamels will have made 200M+ by 2019.   Given how safe baseball is, and how long their careers are, there are a lot of reasons to entice a guy like Kyler Murray - but it won't be a $$ based one.

If you have a young kid, get him to throw a baseball, and better yet, be left-handed lol.  If you are a top 20 SP, basically you get to play only every 5th game (unless you are Shotani, the Japanese phenom, too bad about UCL surgery, it was fun to watch him play).    32 starts a year, 20M+.   And you can get that well into your mid-30's.    Now there's risk of blowing out the arm...but not nearly the same risk of blowing out the ACL, or the shoulder, or worse, cumulative CTE risks.   And each time you play, you aren't trying to get slaughtered by 300+ lb guys.     I love football, but for most athletes, if you are great at both sports, the athlete chooses baseball.  Elway chose football because he was elite at football - and just good at baseball.  By all reports, Kyler Murray sounds really, really good at baseball.  And the A's made him a 1st-round pick, which is going to cement that belief in his mind.   Frankly, I love the idea, but the deck is REALLY stacked against Murray going football here.

[MakeDenverGreatAgain]

LOL. If Elway drafted Kyler Murray at all, let alone with a first round pick, I'd be leading the mob in Cherry Hills with my pitch fork and torch. 

[BroncoBruin]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

For sure, for 3 years max, it's min wage (500K or 1M if a team really loves you).  But much like the NFL, there's a fairly hefty signing bonus.  But there's a clause that the top 22 percent of those with 2 years service-time become arbitration-eligible after Year 2 - the "Super-2" clause.  It's why you see elite FA's get their callups in late May / June - teams are trying to avoid to start that clock a year early.

The bigger problem is that once you get into arbitration, unless a team is willing to cut you, it's all guaranteed raises for Years 3-6...and then in FA, it's multi-year, major guaranteed money, full contract.   So a guy like Felix Hernandez at age 33 - he's made 220M+, not including endorsements.     And it's not even elite guys - Cole Hamels will have made 200M+ by 2019.   Given how safe baseball is, and how long their careers are, there are a lot of reasons to entice a guy like Kyler Murray - but it won't be a $$ based one.

I'll defer to your expertise here as I knew nothing about that process until this post. 

I'd have to imagine the opportunity to compete for a starting job on an NFL team from day one (or at least end up in situation where you're starting at some point as a rookie after an inevitable journeyman flame out) will be enticing relative to the minor league baseball reality of riding buses around small towns in virtual anonymity for 1-2 years. Quicker path to big endorsements and general national exposure too. I don't think this is the easy decision it's being framed as in any respect. There's a case to be made that he had the greatest high school football career ever. Undefeated, three straight state titles in Texas and just a laughable amount of touchdowns. I suspect the itch to keep the football thing going will only grow. It's just interesting how there's been virtually no conversation about this possibility anywhere. Meanwhile, the people who could be raising the question are the same people who are burying the upcoming QB class on a weekly basis. 

[BroncoBruin]

Just now, MakeDenverGreatAgain said:

LOL. If Elway drafted Kyler Murray at all, let alone with a first round pick, I'd be leading the mob in Cherry Hills with my pitch fork and torch. 

Why?