Broncos VS Texans GDT

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I'll defer to your expertise here as I knew nothing about that process until this post. 

I'd have to imagine the opportunity to compete for a starting job on an NFL team from day one (or at least end up in situation where you're starting at some point as a rookie after an inevitable journeyman flame out) will be enticing relative to the minor league baseball reality of riding buses around small towns in virtual anonymity for 1-2 years. Quicker path to big endorsements and general national exposure too. I don't think this is the easy decision it's being framed as in any respect. There's a case to be made that he had the greatest high school football career ever. Undefeated, three straight state titles in Texas and just a laughable amount of touchdowns. I suspect the itch to keep the football thing going will only grow. It's just interesting how there's been virtually no conversation about this possibility anywhere. Meanwhile, the people who could be raising the question are the same people who are burying the upcoming QB class on a weekly basis. 

Well context matters - Murray's a 1st round pick, and not just any 1st rounder - but a top 10 pick.   The MLB draft is more hit and miss than the NFL, but the metrics have evolved so much, a top 10 pick is a massive investment.    It's not done lightly or with little background work, like in the 1960/70's lol.   And as a college pick, it's a different path than for younger 18 year olds.    Murray will likely spend 1-2 years in the MILB system at most, Oakland is a team that's known to push their college prospects quickly.  The tale of spending years in the MILB system riding buses in the back-country tems - that's for high school players.   Who often 3-4 years (the elite talents only use 2+ years, the odd guy takes 1 year, Ken Griffey-like talents).   Murray will probably get a low-A assignment his 1st year, and then get promoted to High-A or Double-A ball by year's end.    And then in year 2, get promoted to Double-A to start, and then straight to the bigs at some point in mid-year...or at latest, June in Year 3.   

Now, I should preface all of what I said before about pitchers - Murray's a position player.  The thing about position players in MLB - they have even LESS risk about longevity of careers.   The pitchers are the ones who have shorter careers.   Good position players, as long as they aren't JAG's, they can play well into their 30's.   

I have zero problem with the idea of Murray as a flyer pick - but there is no way we can spend a 1st on him, or even an early 2nd.  Even if we passed and someone else took him, I'd be shocked if it was any earlier than Day 3 TBH.   And then there's literally no real $ to attract him given the draft spot.    A top 10 pick, his path to baseball is THAT gold-laden.  Being a 1st round pick by the A's,  and a top 10 one, the A's aren't taking a flyer, they're taking a Mookie-Betts type leap of faith into his future.   

It's going to be REALLY hard for a NFL team with a shorter career, greater injury risk, and frankly, less $ to offer if no one is willing to spend Rd1 $.  And given the way MLB really is so player-friendly, it's a nice dream, but I do think we are so QB-starved we're seeing a mirage rather a real possibility.

[champ11]

16 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Why? 

edit nevermind, too easy

[BroncoBruin]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Well context matters - Murray's a 1st round pick, and not just any 1st rounder - but a top 10 pick.   He'll spend 1-2 years in the MILB system at most, Oakland is a team that's known to push their college prospects quickly.  The tale of spending years in the MILB system - that's for high school players.   Who often 3-4 years (the elite talents only use 2+ years, the odd guy takes 1 year, Ken Griffey-like talents). 

Now, I should preface all of what I said about pitchers - Murray's a position player.  The thing about position players in MLB - they have even LESS risk about longevity of careers.   The pitchers are the ones who have shorter careers.   Good position players, as long as they aren't JAG's, they can play well into their 30's.   

I have zero problem with the idea of Murray as a flyer pick - but there is no way we can spend a 1st on him, or even an early 2nd.  Even if we passed and someone else took him, I'd be shocked if it was any earlier than Day 3 TBH.   And then there's literally no real $ to attract him given the draft spot.    A top 10 pick, his path to baseball is THAT gold-laden.  Being a 1st round pick by the A's,  and a top 10 one, the A's aren't taking a flyer, they're taking a Mookie-Betts type leap of faith into his future.   

It's going to be REALLY hard for a NFL team with a shorter career, greater injury risk, and frankly, less $ to offer if no one is willing to spend Rd1 $.  And given the way MLB really is so player-friendly, it's a nice dream, but I do think we are so QB-starved we're seeing a mirage rather a real possibility.

Your scenario seems to be the Bo Jackson-Raiders one, a true flyer pick that forces Kyler's decision. In that case, yeah, hard to argue it's worth the risk for a team needing to hit on picks. But spring training starts in late February. After the incredible run he's had this season, what if he decides he's not going to play baseball, agrees to pay back the signing bonus and goes through the entire draft process? 

We have full length discussions about things from the past that can't actually happen too frequently to not discuss an idea that is theoretically possible. 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Your scenario seems to be the Bo Jackson-Raiders one, a true flyer pick that forces Kyler's decision. In that case, yeah, hard to argue it's worth the risk for a team needing to hit on picks. But spring training starts in late February. After the incredible run he's had this season, what if he decides he's not going to play baseball, agrees to pay back the signing bonus and goes through the entire draft process? 

We have full length discussions about things from the past that can't actually happen too frequently to not discuss an idea that is theoretically possible. 

Hey, I'm not discounting ANYTHING.  But the tea leaves aren't looking good, and given not many are familiar on baseball, I'm just trying to shed light on the situation.   Baseball was my fantasy first love...until 162 games a year and a family that actually needed me to be around 5-6 days a week dictated otherwise lol.   For dynasty baseball owners, stuff like Super-2 and a top 10 pick's career path, college vs. HS draftees, hitter vs. pitcher, it's like explaining US football to a EU fan lol.   Just trying to help.

I do get the reason to hope there's something here - because man oh man, the QB draft class is just abysmal for top-end talent.  Even Herbert, who has the most sustained success and the best QB traits, has really struggled 2 of the last 3 weeks, and not just from being asked to carry a bad team, he's made mistakes / avoided throws that you don't want to see guys do if they are going to be NFL-level successes.  I get why people want to hope there's something better in 2019 than the guys being discussed so far.   It's.....ugly.

 

[BroncoBruin]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Hey, I'm not discounting ANYTHING.  But the tea leaves aren't looking good, and given not many are familiar on baseball, I'm just trying to shed light on the situation.   Baseball was my fantasy first love...until 162 games a year and a family that actually needed me to be around 5-6 days a week dictated otherwise lol.   For dynasty baseball owners, stuff like Super-2 and a top 10 pick's career path, college vs. HS draftees, hitter vs. pitcher, it's like explaining US football to a EU fan lol.   Just trying to help.

I do get the reason to hope there's something here - because man oh man, the QB class is just abysmal.  Even Herbert, who has the most sustained success and the best QB traits, has really struggled.  I get why people want to hope there's something better in 2019 than the guys being discussed so far.   It's.....ugly.

 

It's much appreciated. I love certain aspects of baseball but not well enough to follow it to the in-depth degree of football or basketball. 

The state of the class definitely has me more open to risks and looking for market opportunities, but this is honestly more about Kyler the player for me than anything else. I have seen every Oklahoma game this year. I've always had a soft spot for OU and just love Lincoln Riley's offense, but coming into the season I expected Kyler him to be a typical dual-threat college QB with no NFL prospects as a passer. That hasn't been the case. He makes 3-5 throws every week that are jaw-dropping. I'm not sure I've seen the combination of refined passing skills and generational athleticism before. The "but he's 5'10, 195" can be a roadblock, or an opportunity to get value. 

[Broncofan]

BTW not that we need to rehash Joseph’s bad decisions.  But man he can’t even justify them in a way that inspires any confidence.  SMH. 

 

[germ-x]

 

Murray would be stupid not to just go the baseball route.  He was a top 10 pick which means Oakland will give him every opportunity in the Big Leagues.  His game also profiles well in today’s MLB, where his speed in the defensive OF and his above average power make him a likely MLB average regular at worst.  He Ks a lot, but that isn’t an issue when building a lineup anymore.

If he were a 4th/5th round pick, I think there’d be an argument.  Going top 10, not much of one, they give top 10 picks more chances than they deserve in most cases.  

At worst with Murray’s defensive upside he carves out a long time role in the majors, even if he can’t hit, and makes good money without having his body/head destroyed in the NFL.

 

[Joe_is_the_best]

I say we try drafting a short QB. 

[lomaxgrUK]

Is there a legit argument to say that if you don't have a confirmed franchise QB, you draft a QB in the top 3 rounds every year, going with the mantra of, "throw enough s**t at the wall and eventually it will stick"?

Practice reps become an issue, but we've thrown enough draft picks in the top 3 rounds away over the last 15 years for me to not be bothered about 'wasting' some.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Is there a legit argument to say that if you don't have a confirmed franchise QB, you draft a QB in the top 3 rounds every year, going with the mantra of, "throw enough s**t at the wall and eventually it will stick"?

Practice reps become an issue, but we've thrown enough draft picks in the top 3 rounds away over the last 15 years for me to not be bothered about 'wasting' some.

It’s literally what teams with franchise QB’s still do every other year - NE, GB, PIT.   Take a shot with a Rd 3-4 pick.  Or Rd 2 if you really believe in the talent.   And they have the franchise guy already in hand.  They don’t ever want to be picking out of need and desperation and forcing an awful Rd1 pick - like we found ourselves in 2016 and very possibly in 2019.    Or so many other teams have done in meh QB draft years (e.g. 2011 without Cam).  That’s the problem - the whiff rate is so high after Rd 1 teams don’t depend on those guys right away - for every Wilson / Dak / Dalton you literally have > 10 washouts per hit.  A sub-10 percent hit rate.  Which is why doing it over & over is justifiable - but easy to do when you have the franchise guy.   Going with a Rd 2-3 talent in Rd1 is a far worse solution though - same risk and huge price and longer investment. 

The key IMO for 2019 is that Rd1 locks you in for 3 seasons because of the cost. And early Rd2 pick probably locks you in 2 seasons unless it’s a rare situation like CLE/Kizer (using their 5th pick that year).  Rd3 or later teams can walk away from as the starter anytime.  So if you go Rd1 you absolutely believe in the talent.   Elway has literally done it in reverse and locked into 1 guy as the QBOTF once he’s drafted them no matter if they are actually progressing.  

If there is a guy who is absolutely a franchise guy skill wise that’s ok for Rd1 but otherwise don’t get too attached to who you have.  More competition is never a bad thing if you aren’t invested.   If you find yourself with 2 really good young QB’s someone will pay up to solve your problem and improve the team in other ways and accelerate the rebuild.   I’d be thrilled if we were ever in that situation.   I’d just settle for one at this stage lol. 

2018 was a loaded class. 2020 looks very promising.   2019 isn’t.  It’s one of the worst ever QB classes for top end franchise QB talent (but also deep with project guys with low floors).  Going the route you suggest for 2019 and in years a true franchise guy isn't in our range until we find one, makes a ton of sense.  Pulling the trigger when there is a guy Rd1 still is the way to go if skill wise a guy is there - but until then, your approach is the plan B that makes the most sense.   It’s definitely the right idea for 2019.  I really hope Elway sees that. 

[Joe_is_the_best]

This is the first time this season that Keenum didn't throw a pick, breaking his 8 game streak. Baby steps.

[thebestever6]

8 hours ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

This is the first time this season that Keenum didn't throw a pick, breaking his 8 game streak. Baby steps.

I called it that he would have his best game as a Bronco. He was going against a former coach and team. The coach said to him he'd be nothing more than a 3rd stringer.  He plays better with a chip on his shoulder.  It's not sustainable though.

[thebestever6]

On 11/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, Broncofan said:

BTW not that we need to rehash Joseph’s bad decisions.  But man he can’t even justify them in a way that inspires any confidence.  SMH. 

 

What are your thoughts on Matt paradis and his injury.  I believe it was a broken fibula.  Do you still see him as a viable long term commitment?

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

What are your thoughts on Matt paradis and his injury.  I believe it was a broken fibula.  Do you still see him as a viable long term commitment?

Fortunately the injury isn’t one that should cause trouble long-term - there was ligament damage, presumably ankle, but those should heal.    As long as he doesn’t command new standard-setting $ he will likely get re-signed.  

That’s probably the one silver lining - it won’t be a long term injury that lingers but serious enough it likely allows us to sign him to something like a 4-year deal with 2-years guaranteed, instead of say a 6-year 3-4 year guaranteed deal.     Given the degenerative nature of his hip injuries and the overall wear and tear & mileage with trench guys, long 2nd contracts rarely end well, so not getting top-of-position length in the deal’s guaranteed years is a big plus.   

I said this past offseason we should wait and let Paradis show he had his peak play back from his 3rd/4th hip surgeries before offering a 2nd contract and he has shown it’s there.  And this isn’t a long-term recurring injury risk.   As unfortunate as this injury is, it allows us a window to sign him - and offer him a relatively team-friendly deal (not too crazy lowball AAV wise but for example maybe fewer overall & guaranteed years) that he would be more tempted to accept for the security. 

Now the one X-factor that changes all the above is if McGovern just beasts out as our C.  Then it’s a $ equation.   He’s been our most consistent OL outside of Paradis  but he’s also been beat by the top DL playing G.   No shame in that and if we kept Paradis at C and him at G no complaints here at all.  

But if McGovern’s play is suddenly way better at C and say Sam Jones (or another guy on the squad, Jones offering the most hope because he’s a rookie) shows enough at G, then our rebuild mode might dictate we let Paradis walk if it’s not a team-friendly deal.   But that’s only if we see McGovern show enough at C first.  

Rookie-level league average or better play is what we need to see more of, and I’d say he’s definitely that right now (unlike almost everyone else on the OL his PFF rating is accurate - because he’s faced good interior DL’s for half of his games - and top 5 interior talent for 3 of them in L-Williams, Watt,  Donald - remember the flaw in PFF ratings is it assumes the opposition is equal so you need to factor in the actual opposition faced).  But if he looks great as a C and Jones / someone else looks ok at G the 2nd H of season (as a rookie Day 3 pick Jones even being ok in a rotation would be a good sign for year 2) then it’s a tougher call. 

How Mcgovern does at C is one of the truly interesting 2019 angles we can look for the last 7 games.  CIN / CLE and if Bosa is back, LAC x 2 will all be good tests for him (not that he’d face Bosa but as C he’ll have to call assignments and adjustments against very good to great pass rush units for 4 games if Bosa is back).

 

[Broncofan]

So it’s Wilkinson who gets the next shot at G next week.