Week 9 | SNF - The One with Brady and Rodgers

[Spooky]

Keeping with the Friends theme from last week..

 

This game is already being dubbed "Brady vs Rodgers" but let's talk about what's really going on. Brady vs. Packers Defense and Rodgers against Patriots Defense. 

MJ has narrated the pregame, definitely go check it out if you haven't. 

Curious as to what everyone thinks is the best gameplan for this Packers team. I honestly don't know what's the best way to beat this team. Seem like the Rams played a lot of man coverage. I think if you get Gilmore on Adams and Chung on Graham, maybe try to make the others beat you. 

https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1057683230797807616

I can't wait for this matchup, want to remind everyone that it's Brady vs. Packers D and Rodgers @ Patriots D.

 

LFG

[SBLIII]

Yeah, we will see. But it does seem like this defense has a lot more juice than last year. Gilmore might be even better than 2017, Devin is also better than last year and Jason is playing better than Butler. They are still slow at linebacker but Hightower still puts this LB core easily over the 2017 one. It would have been nice to add speed there but it is what it is. Now have to hope Hightower gets up to full speed until the playoffs. The defensive line is performing quiet well. Guy and Flowers have been very good, Clayborn is solid and pretty much what he was expected coming in. The one guy who needs to step up is Brown, he has been underwhelming. So basically you are looking at a pretty solid defense who could take another step if Hightower and Brown improve. 

Rodgers is way too good to get shut down but I think GB offense is a major step below KC and our defense is solid. Wouldn't be surprised if we hold them to quiet a few field goals only and about 21-24 points. 

As far as the offense is concerned, they obviously struggled against Buffalo. They do have one of the best defenses in the league but it was still not a good look. They have been looking ahead to GB because it was really sloppy, 2 weeks in a row now really. It isn't a coincidence that Michel basically missed those 2 games either. But it does seem like he will return this Sunday according to reports. I think the offense will do well with a running game again.

 

I think they'll beat Green Bay but considering their QB it will go down to the wire.

 

31-24 NE

[Deadpulse]

Wont be upset if GB beats us. Frustrates me that this is marketed as the battle of the GOATS not because I dont think Rodgers deserves it but because I think Brees deserves it way more and never gets a look. 

[DoleINGout]

2 hours ago, Deadpulse said:

Wont be upset if GB beats us. Frustrates me that this is marketed as the battle of the GOATS not because I dont think Rodgers deserves it but because I think Brees deserves it way more and never gets a look. 

we have to wait for the super bowl to get that

[Arthur Penske]

6 hours ago, Deadpulse said:

Wont be upset if GB beats us. Frustrates me that this is marketed as the battle of the GOATS not because I dont think Rodgers deserves it but because I think Brees deserves it way more and never gets a look. 

How is Brees is a better Qb than Rodgers?

[Deadpulse]

1 hour ago, Arthur Penske said:

How is Brees is a better Qb than Rodgers?

Didnt say that. Brees is more accomplished and further into his career. Brees also holds a lot of career QB records and is still going. He tops Brady in plenty of categories and is younger than him. Why doesnt he get any love?

[Deadpulse]

I think Sony comes back this week. The mere fact they neglected to add a trash heap back and run with Patterson suggest they always thought this was a one week absence. 

[Hunter2_1]

If Michel plays, I think we win something like 30-25. 

If Michel doesn't play, I think THEY will win with a similar score the other way

I also feel it's the type of game where whoever has the final possession - wins.

[Hunter2_1]

Geronimo Allison had a practice injury. Unsure if it's bad enough to keep him out. He's really good and catches a ton of passes. 

[Hunter2_1]

Why they are a bad matchup for our D;

Their offense thrives off slow-developing deep rout concepts, often accompanied by play-action moving the pocket. Rodgers knows to checkdown if necessary... but, given the stellar pass protection he receives (their tackles are great) and his skill at extending plays, he just as often waits until a receiver breaks free downfield. Of course, his receivers often take advantage of switch, flood, and levels concepts to beat zone coverage before Rodgers need extend the play. On the ground, the interior line struggles to gain traction, but Aaron Jones is a skilled enough athlete to overcome poor blocking.

So with our propensity to keep a disciplined rush, I believe Rodgers WILL have the time to let those routes develop, and he'll be able to gash us deep up the field. We need to limit the RZ plays, BUT, he's the best RZ QB in history without it even being close. Tough assignment. 

Why we are a bad matchup for their D;

The LB group is a very aggressive group for the Packers; they will certainly make a few plays, but will also get caught over-pursuing or losing containment. Though it changes based on the play call, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry generally stand up on the line of scrimmage while Blake Martinez mans the "Mike" spot. In the base defense, Oren Burks takes the "Ted" off-the-line position while a defensive back replaces him in the dime. Martinez does everything a 3-4 Mike needs to do: flow to the ball carrier, blitz the A gap, blast the running back off his route in man coverage, and drop back effectively in zone coverage. Of course, as mentioned above, aggression can sometimes carry the linebackers too far and open up cutback lanes. For this reason, a zone rushing scheme causes particular trouble for the Packers.

The outside linebackers show the ability to get upfield quickly, turn the corner, and sack the quarterback. Against more mobile quarterbacks, this pass rushing technique has often backfired to the tune of a long scramble... though there’s little worry of that against Tom Brady. More relevant, however, is the outside linebackers’ tendency to shoot the C gap trying to tackle the runner in the backfield; it’ll work sometimes but, when it doesn’t, the loss of contain can allow the runner to break off large chunks of yardage. When asked to fall back into coverage from the base 3-4 or in a nickel zone blitz, Matthews and Perry struggle to nail down their zone responsibilities. Cred to Logan at SB nation. 

This is Michel in the run game (which is why I think he's key tomorrow) and White in the flats/cross/texas routes territory 

[Pugger]

On 11/1/2018 at 4:35 PM, Deadpulse said:

Didnt say that. Brees is more accomplished and further into his career. Brees also holds a lot of career QB records and is still going. He tops Brady in plenty of categories and is younger than him. Why doesnt he get any love?

I'm a Brees fan but what has Drew accomplished more than Rodgers?

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Why they are a bad matchup for our D;

Their offense thrives off slow-developing deep rout concepts, often accompanied by play-action moving the pocket. Rodgers knows to checkdown if necessary... but, given the stellar pass protection he receives (their tackles are great) and his skill at extending plays, he just as often waits until a receiver breaks free downfield. Of course, his receivers often take advantage of switch, flood, and levels concepts to beat zone coverage before Rodgers need extend the play. On the ground, the interior line struggles to gain traction, but Aaron Jones is a skilled enough athlete to overcome poor blocking.

So with our propensity to keep a disciplined rush, I believe Rodgers WILL have the time to let those routes develop, and he'll be able to gash us deep up the field. We need to limit the RZ plays, BUT, he's the best RZ QB in history without it even being close. Tough assignment. 

Why we are a bad matchup for their D;

The LB group is a very aggressive group for the Packers; they will certainly make a few plays, but will also get caught over-pursuing or losing containment. Though it changes based on the play call, Clay Matthews and Nick Perry generally stand up on the line of scrimmage while Blake Martinez mans the "Mike" spot. In the base defense, Oren Burks takes the "Ted" off-the-line position while a defensive back replaces him in the dime. Martinez does everything a 3-4 Mike needs to do: flow to the ball carrier, blitz the A gap, blast the running back off his route in man coverage, and drop back effectively in zone coverage. Of course, as mentioned above, aggression can sometimes carry the linebackers too far and open up cutback lanes. For this reason, a zone rushing scheme causes particular trouble for the Packers.

The outside linebackers show the ability to get upfield quickly, turn the corner, and sack the quarterback. Against more mobile quarterbacks, this pass rushing technique has often backfired to the tune of a long scramble... though there’s little worry of that against Tom Brady. More relevant, however, is the outside linebackers’ tendency to shoot the C gap trying to tackle the runner in the backfield; it’ll work sometimes but, when it doesn’t, the loss of contain can allow the runner to break off large chunks of yardage. When asked to fall back into coverage from the base 3-4 or in a nickel zone blitz, Matthews and Perry struggle to nail down their zone responsibilities. Cred to Logan at SB nation. 

This is Michel in the run game (which is why I think he's key tomorrow) and White in the flats/cross/texas routes territory 

We are hoping to see Aaron Jones getting more carries now that Montgomery is gone.  If Jones can get going perhaps the pass rush won't be so fierce seeing Rodgers isn't as nimble as he normally is.

Yes, our LB corps is the weak link in our defense.  They tend to over pursue and leave the middle of the field wide open.  Nick Perry has been mostly invisible this year and Matthews might be a little gun-shy after getting those penalties earlier this year.  We Packers fans are happy to see the improvement in our defense as the season has progressed but our secondary is very young, especially now with Dix gone.

[Uncle Buck]

Go Patriots! 

[Hunter2_1]

8 hours ago, Pugger said:

We are hoping to see Aaron Jones getting more carries now that Montgomery is gone.  If Jones can get going perhaps the pass rush won't be so fierce seeing Rodgers isn't as nimble as he normally is.

Yes, our LB corps is the weak link in our defense.  They tend to over pursue and leave the middle of the field wide open.  Nick Perry has been mostly invisible this year and Matthews might be a little gun-shy after getting those penalties earlier this year.  We Packers fans are happy to see the improvement in our defense as the season has progressed but our secondary is very young, especially now with Dix gone.

However....Pettine does not, against us at least. He knows Brady and back with his time at the Ravens as LB coach and with the Jets, he tended to keep a man in the middle because he knows Brady thrives there. He's one of the better DCs against Tom. Slightly concerning for us. I bet we see a packed middle, and TB will need slightly longer time than usual

[AlNFL19]

I think Michel might be big in this game. My projection model right now says New England 61%. If Michel plays I'm feeling pretty okay about this one, maybe 35-23. But it's Rodgers so you never know.