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Week 10: Miami WontWins @ Green Bay GDT

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Yeah that's why I wanted to see it. Flaws in the thinking IMO, but if Adams wins right away then Rodgers needs his *** chewed for not throwing it.

https://imgur.com/a/FwLbrAO.gif

 

Potato quality

Edited by AlexGreen#20

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Yeah and Bulaga ends up blocking no one. Screw up by that front group no doubt.

I really don't think so. I think that's exactly what was called.

The Dolphins correctly read that Adams in the backfield is an "empty" look from a protection standpoint. They brought the linebackers into the A gap, so the offensive line had to account for them. 6 rushers vs 5 blockers. That forced the shift to the left call by the offensive line which necessitated the TE stepping in to block the 6th guy. Graham just blew it. 

Also worth noting, Bakhtiari also probably would have given up a sack there if Graham didn't. 

Lesson in the long term, keep Williams in the backfield on pressure downs. 

Edited by AlexGreen#20

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42 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I really don't think so. I think that's exactly what was called.

The Dolphins correctly read that Adams in the backfield is an "empty" look from a protection standpoint. They brought the linebackers into the A gap, so the offensive line had to account for them. 6 rushers vs 5 blockers. That forced the shift to the left call by the offensive line which necessitated the TE stepping in to block the 6th guy. Graham just blew it. 

Also worth noting, Bakhtiari also probably would have given up a sack there if Graham didn't. 

Lesson in the long term, keep Williams in the backfield on pressure downs. 

Or at least keep a RB in the backfield to have the threat of a run.  Jones or Williams, take your pick.  Williams certainly better in pass pro than Jones, but as long as Jones does not whiff, something could develop

 

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11 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

https://imgur.com/a/FwLbrAO.gif

 

Potato quality

I just don't see what good the backfield does for Tae there. Motion him out of it to the slot and have him run that route. Still probably a ball Aaron should throw, although there is some risk of one of those LBs undercutting it.

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34 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I just don't see what good the backfield does for Tae there. Motion him out of it to the slot and have him run that route. Still probably a ball Aaron should throw, although there is some risk of one of those LBs undercutting it.

Gets him isolated on the safety and away from Xavien Howard. Even uses the little pick by Graham when the safety jumps outside to be open. 

I really don't think this was a coaching failure, execution failure by Graham and Bakhtiari

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With the INT, is Breeland off the hook? I know he is still knocking the rust off, but up until that point he has been pretty bad.

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14 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

With the INT, is Breeland off the hook? I know he is still knocking the rust off, but up until that point he has been pretty bad.

I don't think we fully appreciate the what it takes to be game-ready in the NFL. He didn't have any time in the offseason, OTA's, installs, mini-camp, training camp and all of the film corrections that the other guys got. So he's still behind mentally.
And physically, he's way behind too because while others were fine tuning their physique and technique - he was busy learning how to walk/run again. Skin grafts are not a trifling matter and that's why it took months ( March - September) just to pass an NFL Physical

To answer your question: Not off the hook yet, just need to see steady improvement from now until February

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17 hours ago, Howler said:

The tweet is trying to insinuate something with faulty reasoning. Mainly that the Packers should be running more on first down. The logic being that they have a high Success Rate but low Run Rate compared to the rest of the league.

What this misses is that the Packers shouldn't be striving to balance their run/pass rates at a similar rate to the rest of the league. For all we know, the rest of the league has it wrong (there is extensive analytical work supporting this idea- teams run too much even in this relatively pass-happy era).

 

Better metrics: why we can't just use Win% or Expected Points

The best play is the one that gives the overall highest win chance, which is generally the play that yields the most Expected Points. We have tons of data for league average teams over many years on what yields the most Expected Points, but for a specific team in any given year there is a lot of noise in EP data due to the turnover of players and the variation of specific plays. A few huge outlier positive (a 99 yard touchdown run) or negative (pick-6) plays can pollute your Expected Point data over just a few hundred first-down plays through week 10 in any given NFL season.

One solution to the limited EP data is to look at a less perfect metric like "Success Rate" (SR). It's less perfect because it will only tell us if the offense hits certain minimal thresholds given down and distance (iirc it's 5 yards on 1st and 10) so it will bias towards more 'consistent' plays like runs and away from plays with bigger explosive potential to get points (big pass plays) but it has the advantage of being a more stable metric that isn't going to be overly sensitive to good/bad luck in big plays.

 

Success Rate

So let's talk Success Rate then. We're looking at first down run SR in this tweet, which means that the only metric to compare it to is not to other team league-averages and rates, but to the Packers own pass SR in the same first-down scenarios.

It turns out, the Packers have almost dead even run and pass SR on 1st and 10. P9V5RMO.jpg

This means that, ignoring personnel decisions (more on that in a moment) most likely the Packers have been nearly perfect in their first down run-pass play split. As good as you might think they are on first down at running, they've been just as successful passing. There is no season Success Rate argument that the Packers should run more.

There are other arguments.

 

What Team Success Rate Misses

1. Aaron Jones is now getting a higher percent of carries. Maybe with more of him and no more Montgomery that Packers run SR can be expected to rise. It is small sample of 1st and 10s so far, but on 39 offensive 1st and 10 plays Jones does have quite a high SR (64%). Williams is not nearly as good (48%) and Ty was about average (53%). If (big if) these rates continue, that would be a strong indication Jones should get more 1st down carries (this is already a trend we are seeing develop as recently as last week).

2. Despite (1), it's possible to argue it is better to pass, because the chance for a big play that passing brings (yes, it is higher than the chance of a big Aaron Jones run) is worth more than meeting the minimum "Success" threshold.

3. Keep in mind SR doesn't take into account turnovers. SR is binary so a play is just as "unsuccessful" on a turnover as on an incomplete pass or a run of four yards. Depending on Jones' fumble rate compared to Rodgers fumble/int rate, it might be better to bias towards the play type that causes fewer turnovers. In his small sample of a career, Jones has a 0.65% fumble rate (1 fumble in 154 rushes). This year, Rodgers has 6 fumbles and 1 INT in 355 pass attempts for a 1.97% fumble+int rate (slightly inflated because it double-counts his fumbles on handoffs from center-qb exchanges on run plays).

Conclusion

It's probably time to run Aaron Jones more on 1st and 10. Not because other teams are running more on 1st and 10, but because so far early results indicate it's going to lead to more consistent yardage gains (and thus sustained drives) than passing- something this team has at times struggled with. If you believe the turnover numbers will hold (such things are highly volatile with this small a sample- was Jones a fumbler in college?), it's probably a safer move for ball security, too. When Williams is in the game, the Packers should continue passing on 1st down as much or more than they currently do. Running Jones on 1st down will mean less explosive plays to MVS and Adams on 1st down, but it should more consistently put us in better down/distance situations on 2nd and 3rd down allowing an opportunity for later-down explosive gains to our WRs.

Edited by Acrid Josher

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17 minutes ago, Acrid Josher said:

Conclusion

It's probably time to run Aaron Jones more on 1st and 10. Not because other teams are running more on 1st and 10, but because so far early results indicate it's going to lead to more consistent yardage gains (and thus sustained drives) than passing- something this team has at times struggled with.

The Packers staple play on 1st and 10 was a quick out to Jordy for 7-8 yards. Great way to stay ahead of the chains. None of the young WRs are ready to handle that play with equal aplomb, so perhaps running AJ is a new, winning adjustment

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