Random Ravens Thoughts: New Forum Edition

[wackywabbit]

57 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I'll wait to pass further judgement, but the chances of either of our TE's becoming All-Pro on a run-first team are incredibly slim. 

Looking back at it, we traded out of pick 16 for picks 25 and 125.

We then sent pick 125 (along with pick 52) to the Eagles for Lamar Jackson and pick 132.

With pick 32 we obviously got Lamar Jackson. With pick 25 we got Hayden Hurst, and with pick 132 we got Jaleel Scott.

So by count, it's Derwin James or Hayden Hurst / Lamar Jackson / Jaleel Scott.

Hindsight is always 20/20 and of course I'm just guessing, but I'd be willing to wager a solid amount of money that if we stayed put at 16, we still could've moved up to grab Lamar Jackson if he was there at 32 - and as much as I do love Jackson, I'll take Derwin James over those 3 players.

First of all your pick tracking is way wrong. We traded back twice in the first and got a LOT more than the 125th pick. Like I said, Andrew's and Young were sourced completely from our original 1st.

Part of the capital went to Lamar, too, but I didn't count that since the main capital there was the 2 seconds, not involved in any trade.

And the idea that we would be better off with James over Lamar, forget the other players is laughable. Wouldn't even consider moving our QBoTF for an in the box safety. That is quite the terrible value prop.

Edited January 14, 2019 by wackywabbit

[wackywabbit]

3 minutes ago, drd23 said:

I agree with you that its not as simple as picking Derwin James over Hayden Hurst, but this does not make sense to me. 

What does where he was drafted have to do with the fact that he's actually played very well in the NFL in his rookie season, to the point he is an All-Pro and likely DROY (in a year with a number of worthy winners)?  Draft position doesn't equal success, and if anything being drafted lower than where many thought he should have been would lower the hype around him

I only mentioned the sliding down the draft because I think that fuels his hype; the opposite of what you suggest in your last sentence.

To the media (i.e. the people that vote on all-pro). He's the top 5 talent that inexplicably fell down the draft and so everyone labels him inderrated. But what happens when every single person says X is that they become overrated. The media coverage of him is entirely positive and his missed assignments aren't highlighted because they dont fit that narrative. The biggest reason I belive James fell in the draft was that people aren't sure he perfectly fits the safety position in a base defense. I've yet to see him show that he can hold up in coverage a that spot. They are using him as a disruptor closer to the LoS. And not to say that he's the same player, but when we do the same thing with Tony Jefferson, what does that really mean?

Regardless of where he was drafted, I think, with the all pro recognition and all, I think James is a but overrated right now. Shades of early Honey Badger to me. I think it's far from a given that he will be the guy we really regret passing on.

[diamondbull424]

1 minute ago, wackywabbit said:

I only mentioned the sliding down the draft because I think that fuels his hype; the opposite of what you suggest in your last sentence.

To the media (i.e. the people that vote on all-pro). He's the top 5 talent that inexplicably fell down the draft and so everyone labels him inderrated. But what happens when every single person says X is that they become overrated. The media coverage of him is entirely positive and his missed assignments aren't highlighted because they dont fit that narrative. The biggest reason I belive James fell in the draft was that people aren't sure he perfectly fits the safety position in a base defense. I've yet to see him show that he can hold up in coverage a that spot. They are using him as a disruptor closer to the LoS. And not to say that he's the same player, but when we do the same thing with Tony Jefferson, what does that really mean?

Regardless of where he was drafted, I think, with the all pro recognition and all, I think James is a but overrated right now. Shades of early Honey Badger to me. I think it's far from a given that he will be the guy we really regret passing on.

I don’t agree. From what I’ve seen they’ve moved him into cover one looks, they’ve had him in the box, he’s manned up TEs in coverage and locked them down. The hole in his game is that he doesn’t have the elite agility to stick with receivers in coverage and he’s not as instinctive in zone coverage to be a true cover one ballhawk.

I have seen him miss assignments and make mistakes. I can agree on that. But I just don’t see their being any elite safeties on the level of Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. In composition to them, James has a ways to go. But in comparison to the current crop of NFL safeties, I definitely think he’s elite.

[wackywabbit]

4 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I don’t agree. From what I’ve seen they’ve moved him into cover one looks, they’ve had him in the box, he’s manned up TEs in coverage and locked them down. The hole in his game is that he doesn’t have the elite agility to stick with receivers in coverage and he’s not as instinctive in zone coverage to be a true cover one ballhawk.

I have seen him miss assignments and make mistakes. I can agree on that. But I just don’t see their being any elite safeties on the level of Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. In composition to them, James has a ways to go. But in comparison to the current crop of NFL safeties, I definitely think he’s elite.

Agree to disagree. If you say a player is overrated and most people agree, then he wasn't overrated.

In short, I think a safety needs to show he can play in deep coverage space before I consider the e-word. He hasn't shown that ability YET. If he's up on the line, we just saw what a quick slot WR can do opposite him.

[drd23]

5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

I only mentioned the sliding down the draft because I think that fuels his hype; the opposite of what you suggest in your last sentence.

You must consume different media to me then because I haven't seen people call him underrated.  I've seen people marvel at his disruptive ability - to have a number of PBUs, rush the passer (his 3.5 sacks is something like 3rd in the NFL for safeties, plus 6 QB Hits) etc - but that is not the same thing.  Unless you're saying that all the randoms on Twitter count/have influence?

5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

The biggest reason I belive James fell in the draft was that people aren't sure he perfectly fits the safety position in a base defense. I've yet to see him show that he can hold up in coverage a that spot. They are using him as a disruptor closer to the LoS. And not to say that he's the same player, but when we do the same thing with Tony Jefferson, what does that really mean?

This says to me two things - 1) that you either misbelieved that he was a center field safety during the draft process, or that you have a very rigid interpretation of what a "safety" should and can do in the NFL, and 2) that considering everyone complains about Tony Jefferson that we could use his skills

5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

I think, with the all pro recognition and all, I think James is a but overrated right now

If he wasn't worthy, then who in your eyes was?

5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

In short, I think a safety needs to show he can play in deep coverage space before I consider the e-word. He hasn't shown that ability YET. If he's up on the line, we just saw what a quick slot WR can do opposite him.

How often does he need to show he can cover deep before it's good enough for you?  A few snaps? A few games? Multiple seasons?  Because there are certainly plays from this season that show pretty good deep coverage ability, even if it isn't his best attribute

[drd23]

Oh, and just for references, these are the trades made in the draft:

Baltimore - 16 & 154
Buffalo - 22 & 65

Baltimore - 22 & 215
Tennessee - 25 & 125

Baltimore - 52 & 125 & future 2nd (Lamar Jackson trade up)
Philly - 32 & 132

Baltimore - 65 
Oakland - 75, 152 & 212

Baltimore - 75
KC - 86 & 122

In total:

Gave - 16, 52, 154, 215, future 2nd
Gain  - 25, 32, 86, 122, 132, 152, 212 

If you only look at the trade involving pick 16, and the subsequent trades involving the picks received from it, then you get:
Gave - 16 & 154
Got - 25 (Hurst), 86 (Andrews), 122 (Young), 212 (Senat)

[wackywabbit]

15 minutes ago, drd23 said:

Oh, and just for references, these are the trades made in the draft:

Baltimore - 16 & 154
Buffalo - 22 & 65

Baltimore - 22 & 215
Tennessee - 25 & 125

Baltimore - 52 & 125 & future 2nd (Lamar Jackson trade up)
Philly - 32 & 132

Baltimore - 65 
Oakland - 75, 152 & 212

Baltimore - 75
KC - 86 & 122

In total:

Gave - 16, 52, 154, 215, future 2nd
Gain  - 25, 32, 86, 122, 132, 152, 212 

If you only look at the trade involving pick 16, and the subsequent trades involving the picks received from it, then you get:
Gave - 16 & 154
Got - 25 (Hurst), 86 (Andrews), 122 (Young), 212 (Senat)

You dropped out pick 152 which turned into Bozeman and Lasley

[wackywabbit]

25 minutes ago, drd23 said:

How often does he need to show he can cover deep before it's good enough for you?  A few snaps? A few games? Multiple seasons?  Because there are certainly plays from this season that show pretty good deep coverage ability, even if it isn't his best attribute

You saw a better player in coverage than I did this year (both deep and close). Not about quantity, I don't see elite quality, yet. 

[M.10.E]

I think our lack of blue chippers is what's keeping us from the top. We have a lot of good players but few great players. Yanda is the only one right now. Marlon will be there shortly if he's not there already. Mosley is the only other one with an argument.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

9 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

First of all your pick tracking is way wrong. We traded back twice in the first and got a LOT more than the 125th pick. Like I said, Andrew's and Young were sourced completely from our original 1st.

Part of the capital went to Lamar, too, but I didn't count that since the main capital there was the 2 seconds, not involved in any trade.

And the idea that we would be better off with James over Lamar, forget the other players is laughable. Wouldn't even consider moving our QBoTF for an in the box safety. That is quite the terrible value prop.

So here's my source: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23324716/2018-nfl-draft-trade-tracker-every-move-all-32-teams

We traded back out of pick 16 and gained picks 22 and 65.

We traded back out of pick 22 and gained picks 25 and 125.

At this point we drafted Hayden Hurst with pick 25. We still have picks 65 and 125 remaining.

Then we traded up to get Lamar Jackson at pick 32 (and we also gained pick 132) by using picks 52, 125 and a 2019 2nd-round pick. That leaves us with only pick 65 left.

We traded pick 65 and got picks 75, 152 and 212.

Traded pick 75 for 86 and 122.

Pick 86 is Mark Andrews. That leaves us with picks 122, 152 and 212 left.

Pick 122 is Kenny Young. That leaves us with 152 and 212 left.

Traded 152 and got picks 162 and 215. That leaves us with 162, 212 and 215.

Pick 162 was Jordan Lasley

Pick 212 was Greg Senat

Pick 215 was Bradley Bozeman.

So if you include literally everything and all subsequent trades, you get Derwin James == Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Jordan Lasley, Greg Senat, Kenny Young and Bradley Bozeman. And honestly I would still take James over that entire collection of players. Also, I'm not sure how the hell I was so off with my initial tracking....lol

 

[SalvadorsDeli]

If you include Lamar in the calculations, then I'm fully happy with the trade. Derwin James is great but you guys are talking about him like he's Ed Reed. I think Lamar can be our franchise QB and his ceiling is absurdly high, that's a shot well worth taking. 

That said, I don't think it's necessarily true that Lamar should be included since as it was mentioned, the bulk of the assets used to trade up were the 2018 and 2019 2nd rounders which were unrelated to us trading down. Which is to say, the late 4th rounder we got from trading down that was eventually used to threw in to get Lamar could have turned into another pick pretty easily, the main interest was the other picks they got. 

Edited January 14, 2019 by BaltimoreTerp

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

34 minutes ago, BaltimoreTerp said:

If you include Lamar in the calculations, then I'm fully happy with the trade. Derwin James is great but you guys are talking about him like he's Ed Reed. I think Lamar can be our franchise QB and his ceiling is absurdly high, that's a shot well worth taking. 

That said, I don't think it's necessarily true that Lamar should be included since as it was mentioned, the bulk of the assets used to trade up were the 2018 and 2019 2nd rounders which were unrelated to us trading down. Which is to say, the late 4th rounder we got from trading down that was eventually used to threw in to get Lamar could have turned into another pick pretty easily, the main interest was the other picks they got. 

He's more Sean Taylor than Ed Reed, but overall being 1st-team All-Pro in your rookie year when you're clearly still learning things and will continue to grow is something worth talking about.

If you remove Lamar from that list of players, then I think it's heavily weighted towards the potential of Kenny Young and the possibility of Hayden Hurst just having that "Rookie wall" despite being old AF for a rookie, because honestly I don't see anything worth being excited about with Lasley or Senat or Bozeman.

[wackywabbit]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

So if you include literally everything and all subsequent trades, you get Derwin James == Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Jordan Lasley, Greg Senat, Kenny Young and Bradley Bozeman. And honestly I would still take James over that entire collection of players. 

 

James is worth so much to you that you (personally) would endure 3 more years of Flacco? 

That might be the single best evidence of people overvaluing him.

Edited January 14, 2019 by wackywabbit

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

6 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

James is worth so much to you that you (personally) would endure 3 more years of Flacco? 

That might be the single best evidence of people overvaluing him.

No, but I realize I should've mentioned that in my post

Not picking Jackson this year means we obviously play Flacco. Then we can evaluate the QB situation next year, or the year after. So at-best it was two more years of Flacco. I think we would've either drafted a QB later on in the draft, or gone with one next year.

But yes, I would take Derwin James over Lamar Jackson even if it meant having to keep Joe Flacco as our QB.

[DreamKid]

4 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

But yes, I would take Derwin James over Lamar Jackson even if it meant having to keep Joe Flacco as our QB.

^^^^Someone hacked AFS' account. 

 

For all of the hype Derwin is getting, he still isn't near as explosive as he was pre-injury at FSU. Dude was a legit monster. 

This seems like a discussion that will be revisited every year.