drd23 Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 If you take it as "close to winning", then choker/choke artist are the closest It was what a lot of people are calling Kyle Shanahan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danand Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I guess choke artist/artists are similar, but not exactly the same. Anyways, after last night, the story about Shanahan and his team will be, that they are choke artists/får gummiben, until he wins a super bowl. It shouldn't though, as I don't think what we saw last night was a meltdown like we saw with the Falcons, but rather that spark of brilliance Mahomes bring to the game, which was confined for 55 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RavensfanRD Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Danand said: I guess choke artist/artists are similar, but not exactly the same. Anyways, after last night, the story about Shanahan and his team will be, that they are choke artists/får gummiben, until he wins a super bowl. It shouldn't though, as I don't think what we saw last night was a meltdown like we saw with the Falcons, but rather that spark of brilliance Mahomes bring to the game, which was confined for 55 minutes. Should absolutely call them choke Artist when you had a two possession lead with about 6/7 minutes left. 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and playing scared at halftime like the Ravens did against the Titans. MaHomes is an out of the world QB, just like Brady is as well, but neither had no business winning the meltdowns from the 9ers and Falcons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danand Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, RavensfanRD said: Should absolutely call them choke Artist when you had a two possession lead with about 6/7 minutes left. 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and playing scared at halftime like the Ravens did against the Titans. MaHomes is an out of the world QB, just like Brady is as well, but neither had no business winning the meltdowns from the 9ers and Falcons. It was a two score game, and I have to watch it again, but I didn't have the feeling the 49'ers played scared. Mahomes just managed to bomb away. Did you lose an avartar bet, or is that a Browns burn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RavensfanRD Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 46 minutes ago, Danand said: It was a two score game, and I have to watch it again, but I didn't have the feeling the 49'ers played scared. Mahomes just managed to bomb away. Did you lose an avartar bet, or is that a Browns burn? The end of the 2nd quarter they definitely played scared. 1:30 left with 3 timeouts and you run the clock down? Craziness. I won't discredit what Mahomes did because you still gotta go on the field and produce, but man, 21 points in the 4th and you were leading the whole game? 49ers stopped running the ball when they were for the most part gashing the Chiefs. And the av is def a burn to the Browns. Saw it on NFL memes and couldn't stop laughing. Funniest thing I've seen in awhile. I'll be back to the regularly scheduled program in a few days. 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M.10.E Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, RavensfanRD said: The end of the 2nd quarter they definitely played scared. 1:30 left with 3 timeouts and you run the clock down? Craziness. All time "WHY AREN'T THEY CALLING A TIMEOUT" situation. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 38 minutes ago, M.10.E said: All time "WHY AREN'T THEY CALLING A TIMEOUT" situation. I disagree there. If the Chiefs downed the punt inside the five and still had 3 timeouts, the Chiefs would have been in prime position to score more, not the 49ers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M.10.E Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, AngusMcFife said: I disagree there. If the Chiefs downed the punt inside the five and still had 3 timeouts, the Chiefs would have been in prime position to score more, not the 49ers. If if if. You play to win the game. They did not. They have a top offense in the league and they did not attempt to score. You pull that when you have a crappy offense, not a top offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, M.10.E said: If if if. You play to win the game. They did not. They have a top offense in the league and they did not attempt to score. You pull that when you have a crappy offense, not a top offense. Sometimes playing to win the game means not taking stupid risks. Look at the win probabilities: 1:35 left, ball on the 5: 48.4% 1:35 left, ball on the 10: 48.4% 1:35 left, ball on the 15: 49.1% 1:35 left, ball on the 20: 51.1% 1:00 left, ball on 5: 48.4% 1:00 left, ball on the 10: 48.4% 1:00 left, ball on the 15: 49.1% 1:00 left, ball on the 20: 51.1% So regardless if they take a timeout or not, if KC downs the ball at the 15 yard line or less, they are in a winning position. Now it is true that KC did punt the ball into the end zone, slightly flipping win probability, but there is no way Shanahan could have known that was going to happen. Also, the 49ers offense is predicated on the run game, not Garoppolo throwing for chunks. So they are less equipped to go the length of the field in under 2 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M.10.E Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said: Sometimes playing to win the game means not taking stupid risks. Look at the win probabilities: 1:35 left, ball on the 5: 48.4% 1:35 left, ball on the 10: 48.4% 1:35 left, ball on the 15: 49.1% 1:35 left, ball on the 20: 51.1% 1:00 left, ball on 5: 48.4% 1:00 left, ball on the 10: 48.4% 1:00 left, ball on the 15: 49.1% 1:00 left, ball on the 20: 51.1% So regardless if they take a timeout or not, if KC downs the ball at the 15 yard line or less, they are in a winning position. Now it is true that KC did punt the ball into the end zone, slightly flipping win probability, but there is no way Shanahan could have known that was going to happen. Also, the 49ers offense is predicated on the run game, not Garoppolo throwing for chunks. So they are less equipped to go the length of the field in under 2 minutes. I'm not going to argue using win probability stats. They should have tried to score. Stupid risk?!?! Edited February 3, 2020 by M.10.E 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RavensTillIDie Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Win probabilities are by far the dumbest statistic of all-time. I have nothing else to add to the discussion. Just wanted to put that out there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, RavensTillIDie said: Win probabilities are by far the dumbest statistic of all-time. I have nothing else to add to the discussion. Just wanted to put that out there. Well the Ravens are all in on analytics, which are based on win probabilities. I guess Harbaugh is the dumbest coach of all time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RavensTillIDie Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, AngusMcFife said: Well the Ravens are all in on analytics, which are based on win probabilities. I guess Harbaugh is the dumbest coach of all time. No. Analytics are based on real statistics and substantiated by empirical evidence, which is what leads to data-driven decisions by our coaching staff and front office. Win probabilities are stupid because they are merely an aggregation of points in time during a game in which the score was similar and how often one team "lost" and the other "won". When in reality there are a myriad of factors that go into determining the ultimate outcome of a football game which cannot possibly be represented by what team X did in 1970 with a similar score in the 3rd quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMcFife Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, RavensTillIDie said: No. Analytics are based on real statistics and substantiated by empirical evidence, which is what leads to data-driven decisions by our coaching staff and front office. Win probabilities are stupid because they are merely an aggregation of points in time during a game in which the score was similar and how often one team "lost" and the other "won". When in reality there are a myriad of factors that go into determining the ultimate outcome of a football game which cannot possibly be represented by what team X did in 1970 with a similar score in the 3rd quarter. I agree with you there. But my point is that having the ball at your own 5 yard line with 1:35 left in the second quarter, with 2 timeouts, when the defense has all 3 timeouts, when the score is tied, is actually advantageous to the defense. That's the point I'm getting at. Whereas having the ball at your own 20, with 1:00 left in the second quarter, with 3 timeouts, when the defense has all 3 timeouts, when the score is tied, is slightly advantageous to the offense. BUT, Kyle Shanahan could not know prior to the punt, if it would be a touchback or not. I think people calling him out are not really thinking through the scenarios accurately, from a probabilities standpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalvadorsDeli Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 (edited) Watching the Chiefs offense in these playoffs really solidified to me the need to have a really established/strong #2 receiver. Obviously different offenses/personnel but there are some similarities to maybe draw lessons from. During the regular season, the Chiefs offense was built around 2 elite skill position players (Tyreek HIll and Travis Kelce) and beyond them they largely trusted that a combination of favorable coverages, great scheme, and an elite QB to mean that they could plug in nobodies/raw young guys behind them like Mecole Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle and their offense could roll. Tyreek and Kelce balled out in the playoffs too but the more significant part of KC's run in the playoffs to me was that they did not have to go into any of these playoff games relying on those other JAGS to make plays because Sammy Watkins was healthy and dominant and it crucially gave Mahomes a 3rd target he could fully trust even when his primary reads were covered. It seemed like throughout the playoffs it was actually Watkins who would make the initial big play to get the KC offense going/get their comeback going when things were starting to look bleaker for them. Ultimately come playoff time, when the pressure's on, nerves are tighter, and defenses are a little better, you need guys who can win their individual matchups and beat you with their talent. We have our own bizarro version of Tyreek/Kelce developing nicely with Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews, but we saw in the performances of guys like Seth Roberts, Nick Boyle, and Willie Snead against Tennessee what it looks like when so much else of your offense is based around hoping those role players can deliver in the big moment. Mahomes didn't have to find out really whether Robinson/Pringle/Hardman were up for the moment because Watkins showed up when it mattered even if he otherwise has seemingly underachieved for them. We have our Tyreek and Kelce but we need to give Lamar his own Watkins type behind them who, however inconsistent he might be, at least has the talent to measure up when you're really playing at the highest highest level. Hell, maybe that Watkins type for Lamar is literally Sammy Watkins, if the Chiefs cut him. But we need one more weapon in the passing game to really go to war come playoff time. Edited February 3, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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