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Random Ravens Thoughts: New Forum Edition


drd23

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3 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I agree ^ the more people we drive up a wall having Lamar run the ball a lot, the better. Just limit the hits he's taking. That's all. Run him 50 times a game for all I care.

EDIT: Here's a hit I don't like him taking. You've gotten 20 yards, just slide.

To be fair that was in the first quarter. In the second quarter and on he seems to do a good job of diving forward to cap off a run without allowing a major hit. The only egregious hit I can remember post 1st quarter was the Kirkpatrick tackle out of bounds. But Jackson was already out of bounds by the time that hit came. Looked like unnecessary roughness to me, but apparently not.

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22 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

The only egregious hit I can remember post 1st quarter was the Kirkpatrick tackle out of bounds. But Jackson was already out of bounds by the time that hit came. Looked like unnecessary roughness to me, but apparently not.

There was a hit he took in the 3rd or 4th quarter where the defender got him just above the knee.  It seemed to me like he was taking him time deciding whether to run out or not and so got hit about a yard inside the sideline.

As you said, that Kirkpatrick headlock tackle (which should have been an unnecessary roughness penalty imo too) wasn't Lamar's fault

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For those in the trade Flacco camp, or those wondering who we would pursue as coordinator if Harbaugh is retained and Marty isn't. This is big-

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000988871/article/former-coach-gary-kubiak-might-return-to-sideline-next-year

 

Gary going down to the sideline for Denver would automatically make them a big Flacco destination. Given their success together. Same as it would make him an appealing hire option for us. 

Kubiak owes us one. 

 

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How do we stack up going by DJ's premise?

QB: Joe Flacco(33)/Lamar Jackson(21).

I believe we have one of the best QB rooms in the NFL.

Pass Rusher: Terrell Suggs(36)/Matt Judon(26)/Za'Darius Smith(26)/Tim Williams(25)/Tyus Bowser(23).

Our deployment of them is all out of whack but on paper it's still the deepest EDGE group in the league imo. Suggs is still a B+ rusher, but slows down considerably with too high a snap count. Judon is a C rusher but excels beyond that on stunts and cleanup duty, he also fatigues quickly and needs to be in a rotation. Za'Darius is a C+/B rusher, his impact fluctuates but he does carry his Grade over to the interior as a rusher- bumping his value. Tim Williams is an A rusher, he can torch any Tackle in the league. Tyus Bowser is a C+/B- rusher, a freak athlete who racks up production(even on a severely low opportunity share) due to his burst, bend, speed, explosion, and motor.

Off Playmaker: ? Comparing opportunity to production, I guess the closest would be John Brown(28) and Chris Moore(25).  Followed by Mark Andrews(22)?  Alex Collins(24) and Michael Crabtree(31) can make plays but don't do so consistently, and also bring negative ones with their drops/fumbles. Gus Edwards'(23) sample size is too small.

Big difference between great role players (Willie Snead(26)), and true playmakers. One that's unfortunately defined our offenses for years. You can win with great role players if they make enough plays, as we did with Torrey, Boldin, and Pitta. True playmakers though are another level of value, see Ray Rice. I suppose each evaluator's definition of what a playmaker is varies too. I define it as someone who- consistently produces beyond the normal expectation of the play, converts low percentage opportunity, and draws positive impact for the offense.

We have some good young playmaker candidates in pass catchers Chris Moore, Mark Andrews, and Hayden Hurst. They just need a larger opportunity share. For playmaking runners, Alex Collins was one last year and Gus Edwards was in our last game. Some dark horse candidates are De'Lance Turner and Jordan Lasley. 

Clearly this isn't a strength of our team though.

Def Playmaker: Marlon Humphrey(22)/ Brandon Carr(32)/ Michael Pierce(26).

I don't exactly know what Daniel is defining as a "Defensive Playmaker", because he included a separate designation for pass rushers. So I just listed our 3 best players on Defense this year. Brandon Carr's appearance on the list might surprise some, but make no mistake- he's been playing out of his mind. I gave Marlon the edge because he's drawn the tougher assignments but Carr is playing the best football he ever has to my knowledge. I'm super proud of him.

Marlon's ability speaks for itself. He's elite at staying in phase with receivers, is one of the top PBU artists in the league, and comes downhill in the running game. He's had some back luck with a couple weird TDs caught on him this year, but he's a Shut Down Corner.

We've played a ton of man coverage and with the caliber of our corners, QBs have smartly looked elsewhere. Which is part of the reason we have so few interceptions. In my book taking a receiver out of a play is making a play, so our top playmakers are certainly our CBs- our team's overall strongest unit and the top grouping in the league. 

Michael Pierce consistently makes plays against the run and has generated more pressure this year so he also is up there. Hopefully we trade Brandon Williams and give Pierce a new deal. 

Kenny Young and Tim Williams on a low opportunity share have made plays against both the Pass and Run. Suggs remains a TFL machine. Anthony Levine has made his share of plays. They would be next up line. 

Quality OL: Marshal Yanda(34)/ Ronnie Stanley(24)/ Orlando Brown(22).

Yanda is a Hall of Fame player still at an Elite level. Ronnie Stanley started the year off shaky but has seen his play round into a form, despite fighting through an injury, close to being worthy of the pick we used on him. He's likely a top 10 Tackle in the league at this point. Orlando is what we thought he could be, a major contributor and draft steal.

 

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I went with this: It is weigthed heavily towards defense for the sole reason, that I believe a good QB with a good oline can be able to scheme and use role players enough to create a functional offense. We just saw it with Gus the Bus, an UDFA with zero starts came in and ran all over the place. In modern days you don't need the physical speciment or insane route runner at receiver or tight end because of rub routes, defenses getting spread out etc. There will always be someone open. 

QB (1)

I believe we are in a good but not great position. Flacco could in my mind still be a QB you can win with. Lamar has the upside to be a Russel Wilson light.

OL (3 OT, OC + 1 either OG/OT)

This is where I stand firm. Solidify your oline to protect your biggest investment (QB), and a functional oline make both the running back better and create more time to throw as well as allow more receivers/runningbacks to run down field. I want a good offensive tackle who can hold his own - don't really care if it is on either side. The point is, that this player doesn't need help - that way a team can use chip blocks/help on the other side. 1 good offensive center who can make the calls up front and hold his own and also combine on blocks to make room inside in the running game. Interior pressure won't kill a Lamar Jackson led offense as others, but interior pressure disrupts rythm and makes it difficult to throw. This is why I am inclined to prefer another good interior lineman to a tackle, as a Marshal Yanda type of player can help both inside and outside.

We have Stanley, Yanda and Brown who are either established players or have the potential. Obviously this is where I would like us to look to solidify our talent on the inside, as I believe we have some talent to move to left tackle once Stanley might leave (Senat with upside, Eluemanor a surprising backup solution)

DL (1 interior pass rusher)

Everybody would like an Aaron Donald, but just a consistent player in the middle can do a lot for your defense. A Geno Atkins would be another dream as his play trancends formations. He can do it all and such a player create more room for everybody else on the front 7.

We don't have that. Willie Henry has 1 year to prove he can be it.

LB (2 pass rusher)

This is not a 2 outside linebacker combination. I believe 1 threat on the outside like a Von Miller and an inside option like Derwin James/Whitney Mercilus have a similar value due to versatility. While the outside linebacker/end is the obvious choice as they can put the immediate pressure on with speed/power, the inside option can exploit the space created by the interior oline, stunts and delayed blitzes.

I think we have Tim Williams as a player with upside and then we have to find the other piece - it might be Kenny Young

CB (3)

If a team can throw all day, and you can't get a stop on defense, your own offense won't be able to do much. 3 cornerbacks, 2 on the outside and 1 on the inside who can follow receivers, break up passes, bat balls and get the occasional interception is what will keep you in the game.

Marlon, Tavon and 1 more and I think we are covered here

FS (1)

The centerfielder is the safety net and gamechanger. Eddie Jackson is doing so well with the Bears, Kevin Byard is a better and more experienced example and we have seen what a healthy Hooker can do for a Colts defense (he covers a lot of ground but has unfortunately very little to show for it) and we had an Ed Reed and saw Earl Thomas as a deep safety both take away passes down the middle and help keep the field "short" as well as picking up 4-5 interceptions a year.

We don't have that and we need that - especially with another safety as Tony Jefferson. I don't know if either Clark or Elliot has the range to be the deep centerfield. The range is so important here as well as the ability to read the defense.

That Maryland guy DreamKid posted the other day could be an option.

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14 hours ago, berlin calling said:

speaking of Earl Thomas, would it be too far fetched to hope he could join the Ravens?

what is his expected salary - i do believe DeCosta will either draft or sign a successor to Weddle in the coming offseason.

they have some money and it would transcend the secondary to a top unit. cover up the lack of pass rush.

If the Ravens season ends with us missing the playoffs once again, it wouldn’t surprise me if we replace our current veteran leadership core and go with Thomas.

If we had more sure tackling ILBs, I wouldn’t be against pairing Thomas and Weddle together.

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Little Chris Moore Update:

 Chris Moore- Targets- 16  Catches- 13  Catchable Target Rate- 87.5%  Target Quality Rating- 7.3  Catch Rate- 81.2%  True Catch Rate- 92.9% 

 AVG Target Separation- 2.25 yards    Contested Catch Rate- 100%(2 targets)     Drops- 0     QB Rating when targeted- 103.6

 

To cushion the blow for some of you still upset we didn't get D.J. Moore or Calvin Ridley, let me share with you a little secret.

Chris Moore is a Rich Man's Calvin Ridley.

Shocked? .....Well don't be.

Chris Moore is bigger, has a better catch radius, has better long speed, is better on 50/50 balls and contested catches, has more consistent hands and overall is a way more versatile player.

In the draft Chris Moore was seen as a typical College Deep Threat role player. What he's turned into, is an inside/outside threat with an ability to create quick and smooth separation at all levels of the field. He can elevate over defenders to make the catch, box out defenders to make the catch, and shake defenders loose to make the catch. His focus is top tier. Truly, he's developed into an All-Around Receiver. 

Why the Ridley comparison? It jumped out at me through their utilization.

-Both play out of the Slot on 19% of their snaps

-Both average 6 Air Yards Per Target

-Moore averages 4.95 yards of Cushion and Ridley averages 4.90

After noticing some of those similar numbers I went to the tape and was surprised at just how alike they looked in terms of operation, especially in the endzone. Then what jumped out at me is how many skills Chris Moore has over Calvin Ridley. The only edge I would give Calvin is in route running and even that gap is closing with how quickly Moore is improving. 

They say Wide Receivers typically break out in Year 3. Well, Chris Moore has crushed Camp, Pre Season, and now is crushing the Regular Season. It's safe to say he's arrived. It's not out of nowhere either. He's a beast of an athlete and torched corners like Williams Jackson III and Eli Apple in college. Not to mention that if he's crushing it in our camps and practices, it means he's doing it against great CBs play in and play out. 

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Kind of hard for me to say a guy with 142 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns this season is "crushing the regular season" and "has arrived". I think that's being really, really, really generous and also kind of speaks to how sad our WR situation is that's the lengths people have to go to right now to consider someone "breaking out" at WR for us.

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On 11/25/2018 at 2:53 PM, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Kind of hard for me to say a guy with 142 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns this season is "crushing the regular season" and "has arrived". I think that's being really, really, really generous and also kind of speaks to how sad our WR situation is that's the lengths people have to go to right now to consider someone "breaking out" at WR for us.

Is our WR situation particularly sad? I’m fairly satisfied with the unit. 

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