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BaldyBronco

2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

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I thought I would start a thread to talk about the top QB Prospects in the NFL Draft.  I notice there is a 2019 QB thread, so if this one needs to go, feel free to delete it and I will add to that string.

That said, I wanted to get everyone's opinion how the 2019 QB class and who we should target.

Before I put my initial thoughts down, I wanted to assure this was relevant and not redundant.

Let me know

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Relevant?  Absolutely.  Redundant?  Not likely, as let's face it, this is going to be the #1 topic from January to May...and hell, it might even be the #1 topic now.

I'll go for anyone that's not picked in Rd1, and cartwheels if we wait until Rd3.   The top-end talent that we'll have access to is so...meh (GM Gettleman of the Gmen is a guy who never trades back, but isn't afraid to trade up, so even if we somehow finished ahead of the Gmen, they'd likely move past us to get QB1, pretty clear they will be moving on from Eli).

History says that Rd 3 picks bust far more (>90 percent) than Rd1 guys (50 percent).   The problem is that literally no one from the 2019 class would crack the top 4-5 candidates in 2018, and in 2020 I think Tua, Fromm & Eason probably will be safer picks than who we would consider at Rd1 this year.      2019 is filled with guys who in 2018 would likely be Day 2 picks at best, and frankly, in all but the worst years of top-end QB talent - but some teams will reach for 2+ out of need.  The record when that happens is just scary.    And even worse, we'd pass on a much stronger 2020 QB class if we spent a Rd1 pick.   

As much as I banged the drum to go QB 1.5 in 2018, the talent just isn't there to justify a 2019 Rd1 pick.   The idea of going Rd3+ QB this year (even if he just turns out as a backup long-term, it's a win, since we don't even have that), and hit the trenches for Rd1-2, is far more appealing. 

Edited by Broncofan

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I am researching my Top 5 QB's and other team needs at QB.

The frantic QB pick ups by the league 0n the 2018 QB Class puts us in a pretty favorable position given the Top 10 projection at this point.

I am assuming we end up with a Top 6 pick.  Which gives us probably one of the Top 2 QBs based on the board. 

Looking forward to hearing more from you guys going forward.

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23 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Relevant?  Absolutely.  Redundant?  Not likely, as let's face it, this is going to be the #1 topic from January to May...and hell, it might even be the #1 topic now.

I'll go for anyone that's not picked in Rd1, and cartwheels if we wait until Rd3.   The top-end talent that we'll have access to is so...meh (GM Gettleman of the Gmen is a guy who never trades back, but isn't afraid to trade up, so even if we somehow finished ahead of the Gmen, they'd likely move past us to get QB1, pretty clear they will be moving on from Eli).

History says that Rd 3 picks bust far more (>90 percent) than Rd1 guys (50 percent).   The problem is that literally no one from the 2019 class would crack the top 4-5 candidates in 2018, and in 2020 I think Tua, Fromm & Eason probably will be safer picks than who we would consider at Rd1 this year.      2019 is filled with guys who in 2018 would likely be Day 2 picks at best, and frankly, in all but the worst years of top-end QB talent - but some teams will reach for 2+ out of need.  The record when that happens is just scary.    And even worse, we'd pass on a much stronger 2020 QB class if we spent a Rd1 pick.   

As much as I banged the drum to go QB 1.5 in 2018, the talent just isn't there to justify a 2019 Rd1 pick.   The idea of going Rd3+ QB this year (even if he just turns out as a backup long-term, it's a win, since we don't even have that), and hit the trenches for Rd1-2, is far more appealing. 

This is exactly what I want to discuss @Broncofan.  If we are truly in the business of black box, money ball draft strategy, how do these QBs grade and do we reach in Round 1 out of need.  I applaud them for letting everyone else go QB crazy in 2018 and letting the Chubb pick make itself.  The long term dividends will be huge.

If we stick to that again this year, we should end up in almost the exact same scenario again this off season (seems like groundhog day around here).  If we end up in the top 10 again and pick between 7 and 10, the best players on the board will likely be a DT.  At least 4 grade as Top 10 picks as of now and it's a deep class.  I know it's not a glaring need, but the discipline of 2018, should we adhere to it, would make this a possible pick.  Clemson's Dexter Lawrence for instance if available at our pick would be huge.

All that said.  Will there be a QB that fit's both our incredible need, and the discipline of the 2018 draft class? 

Man it's early to be talking about 2019, but I cannot help it.

 

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14 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

This is exactly what I want to discuss @Broncofan.  If we are truly in the business of black box, money ball draft strategy, how do these QBs grade and do we reach in Round 1 out of need.  I applaud them for letting everyone else go QB crazy in 2018 and letting the Chubb pick make itself.  The long term dividends will be huge.

If we stick to that again this year, we should end up in almost the exact same scenario again this off season (seems like groundhog day around here).  If we end up in the top 10 again and pick between 7 and 10, the best players on the board will likely be a DT.  At least 4 grade as Top 10 picks as of now and it's a deep class.  I know it's not a glaring need, but the discipline of 2018, should we adhere to it, would make this a possible pick.  Clemson's Dexter Lawrence for instance if available at our pick would be huge.

All that said.  Will there be a QB that fit's both our incredible need, and the discipline of the 2018 draft class? 

Man it's early to be talking about 2019, but I cannot help it.

 

The problem is that in 2018 there were 3 franchise-level QB's available (if not 4 - I'll readily state I wasn't sure on Mayfield, but at very worst he should be league-average floor, which doesn't mean he was the right pick over Darnold, but does remove the chances he'll bust outright - I do believe in Lamar, but he was clearly going to need a full year to redshirt and maybe even a 2nd, so I get why he rightfully slipped to end of Rd1, no way you could spend an early pick ahead of the top 3, and no need to) & in 2020 I suspect we have a minimum of 3 franchise-level QB's in Tua, Fromm & Eason.   

There is literally no one in 2019 that I would put over the top 4 in 2018 and top 3 in 2020.  That's just scary.  And we can probably take the "safest" of 2019's QB's off the board, as the G-men have both position on us in all likelihood, and also have the willpower to move up to seal the deal.    I was very high on Herbert going in, as he had early success, and he's shown the most important QB-specific skills of accuracy / ball placement - but he's not really shown any progress this year, either, so he's not even close to the 2018 top 4 class, nor the top 3 in 2020.    This is a rehash debate from the QB discussions from the past, but I think most of us agree that if you have a shot on a true franchise QB, then it's worth taking over all but elite-generational level talent at non-QB positions (and then, it's a great debate).   

Sadly, we won't pick 1.1 or 1.2 - two true generational level talents exist in Nick Bosa and Ed Oliver (disregard the 2018 #'s there - the scheme and lack of talent around him basically limits his output, his tape and his Combine traits will show off the skill set that only Aaron Donald beats, and not by much).   I'd be fine with a Dexter Lawrence, but I'd also be fine with one of the true LT's, too.  They will be very close to a true BPA grade in the 8-12 range, at this pace.   We should be able to match BPA to a prime need position, which is truly the best of both worlds.

Chad Kelly getting kicked off the team really hurts, because I'd have said there was zero chance we'd dive in Round 1 with QB if he even showed he was league-average.  But now, there's going to be a TON of pressure on Elway to find out QBOTF, with no one on the roster.   It's sad, because 2019 is literally the worst year to go early on QB in years.  Think 2011 without Cam, or 2013-14 (2011 is a better comp because it had generational talent at the top with Von/Watt just like 2019 has, and perennial Pro-Bowl ceiling talent scattered throughout the top 12-15).

Edited by Broncofan

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However, looking at draft prospects now is kind of like watching a fart in a hot skillet. 

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Just now, Broncofan said:

The problem is that in 2018 there were 3 franchise-level QB's available (if not 4 - I'll readily state I wasn't sure on Mayfield, but at very worst he should be league-average floor, which doesn't mean he was the right pick over Darnold, but does remove the chances he'll bust outright) & in 2020 I suspect we have a minimum of 3 franchise-level QB's in Tua, Fromm & Eason.   

There is literally no one in 2019 that I would put over the top 4 in 2018 and top 3 in 2020.  That's just scary.  And we can probably take the "safest" of 2019's QB's off the board, as the G-men have both position on us in all likelihood, and also have the willpower to move up to seal the deal.    I was very high on Herbert going in, as he had early success, and he's shown the most important QB-specific skills of accuracy / ball placement - but he's not really shown any progress this year, either, so he's not even close to the 2018 top 4 class, nor the top 3 in 2020.    This is a rehash debate from the QB discussions from the past, but I think most of us agree that if you have a shot on a true franchise QB, then it's worth taking over all but elite-generational level talent at non-QB positions (and then, it's a great debate).   

Sadly, we won't pick 1.1 or 1.2 - two true generational level talents exist in Nick Bosa and Ed Oliver (disregard the 2018 #'s there - the scheme and lack of talent around him basically limits his output, his tape and his Combine traits will show off the skill set that only Aaron Donald beats, and not by much). 

The issue is teams always grade QB's differently which is what happened last year and will likely repeat.  Herbert, Will Grier and Drew Lock will be skyrocketing up draft boards and teams will be clamoring to get up the board to get one of them.  And inevitably our huge need will put us in the position to have to reach. 

Initial looks at the board make me so mad because if we somehow win 4 or 5 more games, we are not going to have the draft capital needed to get a franchise player and if we go 5-11 or worse, the guy we get is not a position of extreme need and Elway may reach.

Maybe draft BPA and hire Chris Petersen and draft Eason, both from Washington and keep Keesum for one more year.  That's the only scenario that I am liking as of now.

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11 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

However, looking at draft prospects now is kind of like watching a fart in a hot skillet. 

:D I went down this rabbit hole knowing full well the danger I would face in talking about what if's right now.  There is an element of this being akin to who will be the democratic Presidential nominee in 2020.  As a 45 year fan of these Broncos, over the last 3 years, the only thing that keeps me going has been the draft.  So I am clinging to whatever I can find..:$

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30 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

The issue is teams always grade QB's differently which is what happened last year and will likely repeat.  Herbert, Will Grier and Drew Lock will be skyrocketing up draft boards and teams will be clamoring to get up the board to get one of them.  And inevitably our huge need will put us in the position to have to reach. 

Initial looks at the board make me so mad because if we somehow win 4 or 5 more games, we are not going to have the draft capital needed to get a franchise player and if we go 5-11 or worse, the guy we get is not a position of extreme need and Elway may reach.

Maybe draft BPA and hire Chris Petersen and draft Eason, both from Washington and keep Keesum for one more year.  That's the only scenario that I am liking as of now.

It’s sad that Keenum starting 2019 is our best long term hope rather than a horrible Rd1 reach and locking us out of 2020.   That’s so depressing.  But it’s looking more like that.  

If we are drafting Rd 3 or later then I’d even be fine with going local - Montez draft stock is in the tank.  He might even slip to Rd4 at this pace.  

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Daniel Jones is the primary guy I'm interested in. That said, Elway is on the record of being more interested in running an offense similar to collegiate offenses, which means a QB fitting that mold could be the choice and the offense would be built accordingly.

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Curious to know what @Counselor thinks. He's got a pretty good track record with college QB's and if early indications hold true, really nailed it last year with Mayfield.

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1 hour ago, broncos67 said:

Daniel Jones is the primary guy I'm interested in. That said, Elway is on the record of being more interested in running an offense similar to collegiate offenses, which means a QB fitting that mold could be the choice and the offense would be built accordingly.

I’m on the Jones wagon as well.  Love what he brings.  Plenty of arm (not a cannon, but can make all the throws required). Big and athletic and a threat with his legs.  Advanced footwork for a college QB (thanks to Cutcliffe) and maneuvers around the pocket to find passing lanes.  I also like the fact that he’s had to deal with pressure and hasn’t had an elite team around him.  People will bring up the INTs, but they don’t worry me he doesn’t have an OL or much in terms of weapons.  He’s forced to win games himself on almost a weekly basis.  If he were at OU throwing INTs like that I’d be concerned, but at Duke it comes with the territory if you’re trying to win games.

Also is incredibly bright by all accounts and will come into the NFL as ready as any QB from a mental/technique stand point.

I watched part of his game vs UNC last week and he made an anticipation throw and hung in the pocket that was NFL caliber.  He got destroyed by a free blitzer off the LT, knew full well that if the guy came would be unblocked and delivered a 10 yard strike to his WR before the receiver had even gotten out of his break.  Very impressive from a young QB.

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On 11/13/2018 at 2:41 PM, AKRNA said:

Curious to know what @Counselor thinks. He's got a pretty good track record with college QB's and if early indications hold true, really nailed it last year with Mayfield.

I need to scout them out to get a better feel. But I do feel that I was right about Baker. We will see in time though.

Edited by Counselor

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What sucks is I still think Jones is more of a late 1st/2nd round pick.  But these guys are always over drafted.  Denver is likely picking in the mid to late teens and will probably need to use that pick to take him or potentially Haskins, Finley, or Grier. Either that or over reach for a guy in the 2nd.

That is, if Denver decides to go QB, which personally I think they’ve put themselves in a position where they have to roll the dice there.

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