2019 NFL QB Draft Prospects

[Scoundrel]

12 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

That’s her

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

That’s her

I never noticed it was her in that commercial lol

[germ-x]

The Kyler Murray talk to the NFL will end tonight.  Clueless when he isn’t well protected and can’t use his athleticism.

[germ-x]

Further Murray is TINY.  I haven’t seen him yet this year.  If he’s 5’10” I’d be surprised.  He’s playing baseball and it’s the smart choice.

[Scoundrel]

Posted these in the NFL Draft Thread

There is a simple play that encapsulates every reason of why I believe Dwayne Haskins will be successful. 

10:15 in the second quarter against Purdue. Haskins side steps a rusher while stepping up in the face of another rusher keeping his feet active, making a read to his second progression while delivering an accurate and perfect velocity throw to his target on a 3rd and 9 for a first while getting pummeled. I watch this play over and over. I love it. Definitely wasn’t his best game but this play shows he has the whole package. 

Haskins footwork is beautiful for a one year starter. Constantly stepping up, keeps feet active up until the release (even as he ***** his arm back his feet are still active). He sets his feet simultaneously with the release as if it is one fluid full body motion. It’s beautiful. When he does make some seldom errant throws it’s when he does set his feet too early and it affects the symbiotic motion of his feet to his throwing arm. When he keeps those feet active he doesn’t telegraph his passes this way and this is why his 70 percent completion percentage is going to carry over into the NFL. 

[Scoundrel]

Recently Scouted Lock and while Ozzy probably has a more in depth assessment than I do this is what I see.

-All Arm, foot mechanics are bad

-Backpedals in the face of pressure and doesn’t have a good sense for pocket timing or edge presence and therefore has poor pocket awareness

-Smart with the football. If it isn’t there usually knows to get rid of the football. (When he does sense the pressure)

-Not the gunslinger mentality despite the arm strength but also a negative because there is not a killer mentality.

-Pretty decent athlete 

-Has an nfl caliber arm

 Locks accuracy issues stem from his footwork in my opinion. He is frustrating because he either stops foot movement (I hate dead feet in the pocket) too soon or backpedals after setting feet instead of stepping up into a throw. Might be able to get away with that in college with his arm strength but not happening in the nfl. He needs refinement and if he can get a coach to really fix the footwork he has the other tools. 

 

 

[Scoundrel]

Recently scouted Finley as well

-24 years old already

-Statue

-Weak arm on outs and comebacks (balls are late or just don’t have the power)

-Rythym and Timing Passer who needs to complete those slants and crossing patterns to get him going. Such a high completion percentage because of so many slants and quick designed passes to RB’s. Which shows the OC’s understanding of who he has behind center. He is the slant and crosser king.

-Makes quick reads (by design), not a lot of progression reading in the offense

-Stares down receivers 

-Not a lot of accuracy on the move, feet must be set to deliver any kind of power behind a ball

-Does have a decent touch on the deep ball

-One of the better back shoulder throwers I’ve scouted

-Harmon bailed him out a lot

-Makes some bone headed decisions in the face of pressure

-Pretty good feel for the pocket

-WCO QB

[Scoundrel]

Posting Grier and Jones more in depth next

Edited January 3, 2019 by Counselor

[Scoundrel]

Will Grier 

Well I found myself liking Grier a lot more than I thought I would. I thought he was going to be more of a system guy like I see Finley but he has real likeable traits. He isn’t a perfect prospect but a round 2 QB who is ready to play. Would even consider trading up into end of round 1 to get the fifth year option depending how our round 1 pick went. My cons may make you question this high a ranking but when I’m usually more critical of QB prospects than glowing. 

Positives

-There is some Baker to Grier’s game. Baker he is not but there is some similar improvision skills and swagger. The Texas comeback shows the type of poise he has and that IT factor you want. It was very Bakeresque. 

-1:23 Q3 vs TT and 2:05 Q3 vs Kansas show the escapability and athletic ability to pick up first downs on the run

-Active Feet

-Pretty good pocket awareness, keeps eyes downfield looking to make a play.

-NFL level arm 

-Smart ball placement (back shoulder, outside shoulder away from defender, etc.), hits all the easy throws

-Can throw on the run, on rollouts and play action 

-Not a lot of progression reading due to offensive scheme but when he does he has some really nice plays 3:10 Q1 against TT being an example of a deep over the outside shoulder touchdown throw to his second or third progression (definitely wasn’t the first read)

-Competitor, at 3:15 Q2 against Kansas throws a goal line int and chases down the corner to prevent a TD. 

-Assumed he has matured with a wife and kid (can’t always be sure though)

Cons

-Holds on to the ball too long and tries to do too much, resulting in sacks. (Especially when trailing by more than one score, Iowa State Game is an example, as he was trying so hard to make plays to bring them back he was sacked seven times that game often holding onto the ball too long and gave up a safety as the last score of the game in doing so)

-Downward throwing motion hits receivers a little low on slants and crossers at times, causing some loss in stride although accurate passes they have to scoop a little shortening stride

-24 years old by season start

-Misses on overthrows deep when has a lot of open field (however can place beautiful deep balls into the end zone, perhaps having a guiding end line in the back of the end zone helps with placement, it’s a bit strange to me)

-Threw three first half red zone interceptions against Kansas counting for 3 of his 8 on the year. These were predetermined throws that no progression was made. 

-Sitting out bowl game (don’t like to see QBs do this, a competitor on the field although I understand why, wife and kid to look after)

-Banned Substance test that led to transfer to WVU (seems to be way behind him)

-Has an arm tattoo (Brock anyone)

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Counselor
Forgot the arm tattoo piece

[Scoundrel]

Grier kind of reminds me of a more accurate Jake Plummer

[Royal_VT]

2 hours ago, Counselor said:

Grier kind of reminds me of a more accurate Jake Plummer

Thanks for the write ups, Counselor. I've been off and on on Grier (only game I really watched was when he played Hokies early 2017, and he looked pretty damn good there). It seems like Hasksins (Jones TBD) is the only 1.10 guy this year, and he will be gone anyway. Lock and Grier seem R2 guys, but you make a good point about trading up into the 1st for the 5th year. Looking forward to your Jones write up, so that we as a forum can argue about something completely out of our control for the next 4 months. 

 

FWIW - right now I am on board with trading up for Haskins, even though it will cost us. A hungry team may see the 2020 QB Class and get excited about the potential of loading up 2020 picks - trading into the top 3 will cost so so much, hoping the Bucs are open at 5.

[Broncofan]

For me, the problem with the 2019 draft class isn't just that they come with very clear flaws (Haskins' only major flaw is the limited body of work, so there's more risk inherent to having a much smaller sample size, just can't argue that the ceiling/tools are there, and in this class, it's not even a question of the gap between him and the rest), but that with the exception of Haskins - all of the players have had very clear periods of struggle prior to this year, and for many, even during their final year.    That doesn't mean they won't succeed - but remember that caveat about year 1 almost always being a throwaway year for most teams that start NFL rookie QB's?   Well, if it takes you until your 3rd-4th year in college before you succeed, and you struggle even then at times, the likelihood of a prolonged NFL adjustment period goes up exponentially.   It's why I like to see early success in college along with owning the NFL-level QB-specific skill set (clean mechanics, anticipation & placement, ability to throw players open with accuracy) when considering Rd1 QB's.   

Even with early success in college, I still expect a learning curve period for the jump to the NFL, because the jump from college to NFL is just that much harder than from HS to college.    But for players who don't break out early in college, not only does it bring more concern about whether they can survive the jump to the NFL, where the competition skill level & speed of play goes up to a much higher degree, but it almost guarantees a longer adjustment period.    Now, that's OK if you are a Day 3 project, or even Rd3 type pick.   But for the capital of a Day 1 pick, taking 2-3 years before the light comes on, that's a huge cap to the return.  And it comes with a much higher bust potential.

Now, early success isn't the only criteria, you need to have the NFL-level throwing skills, and you need to develop the intangible, in-between-the-ear skills (which isn't an expectation out of college, but certainly is a huge bonus if you have it - why Watson's average skillset still played up right away, the intangibles were literally elite-level to begin with).     But if it took a while to adjust in college, then it's hard not to see it's going to take a while to adjust to the NFL level of complex D's and speed, barring very unusual circumstances.    It's why this class really has a ton of Q marks as to their ultimate ceiling, except for Haskins (who I'd imagine won't get out of the top 5, I suspect both NYG/JAX will try to move up to lock him up).

When we look at Grier & Jones, it certainly took them a while to hit that level of consistent success associated with breaking out.    And in Grier's case, he's still got work to do, and more flaws in the NFL-specific set - entering age 24, that's pretty troubling.  Lock's much younger, and his tool set is clearly highest among the 3...but he's also a mess when it comes to translating those tools to actual NFL throwing skills, it's all tools & projection with him.   After 3 years in college, it doesn't mean he's a lost cause, but man, that's a huge flag given our inability to develop guys with Lock's profile (all raw tools, poorly developed skillset).   And I suspect those 3 are the next tier after Haskins.    It's just a really hard group to get behind predicting being ready to start at year 2 in the NFL - if it took them a while to adjust to college, it's really iffy to suddenly think a guy is plug-and-play year 2, let alone year 1 in the NFL.    And none of these guys have elite level tools which might make up for that adjustment period.   Which is totally fine - until you start drafting them in Rd1.   You draft a QB Rd3+, if they need 2 years, no problem, develop them.  But remember the expectations when we drafted Lynch - even though most scouting reports said he'd need 2 years, this was hotly disputed.  And certainly we barely made it to Year 3 (although man, that was one ugly display of zero growth lol).   

If we draft a QB Rd1, whether we like to admit it or not, we'll expect at latest they are starting Week 1, year 2  and play at least at an average level for year 2 (and certainly the latest timeframe if we go top 10 is to start year 2, many will expect year 1 starting at some point).  The problem with this group, outside of Haskins, their college growth curve suggests that's a tall order, given how long it took to get them into the breakout stage, and the flaws they still have now (Jones to me has the most NFL-ready skill set in-between the ears out of those 3, but his struggles until this year at the college level really suggests adjustment to a higher level of competition is going to take some more time - again, not a problem if you are drafting them as typical developmental guys - but Rd1 changes both the expectations and the timeline).    Add in the fact that investing a Rd1 pick means we skip on 2020's class, well, given that the 3 guys we likely are choosing from are Lock/Grier/Jones, I certainly hope we aren't spending 1.10 on them, it's just much too high a price for the QB we're getting (even Rd2 IMO is a stretch in theory, but then at least the overpay isn't OMG-crazy).

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Royal_VT said:

FWIW - right now I am on board with trading up for Haskins, even though it will cost us. A hungry team may see the 2020 QB Class and get excited about the potential of loading up 2020 picks - trading into the top 3 will cost so so much, hoping the Bucs are open at 5.

I think it's worth considering, even with Haskins only having 1 year of work to go off.   But given NYG is at 6 and JAX is at 7, and they both want QB badly, I think we'd be outbid easily to move up to 5 by either team.  Gettleman's total lack of endorsing Eli for the future at the year-end presser is a huge tell - along with his record of moving up to get his guy.   I would be shocked if NYG didn't move up to 3 to ensure they get Haskins.    Gettleman's draft record shows he doesn't usually wait to get his guy, he goes to get him.   Obviously it's just my hunch there but Gettleman's draft history and his comments at the year-end pressers spoke volumes by what wasn't said.  

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[jolly red giant]

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I think it's worth considering, even with Haskins only having 1 year of work to go off.   But given NYG is at 6 and JAX is at 7, and they both want QB badly, I think we'd be outbid easily to move up to 5 by either team.  Gettleman's total lack of endorsing Eli for the future at the year-end presser is a huge tell - along with his record of moving up to get his guy.   I would be shocked if NYG didn't move up to 3 to ensure they get Haskins.    Gettleman's draft record shows he doesn't usually wait to get his guy, he goes to get him.   Obviously it's just my hunch there but Gettleman's draft history and his comments at the year-end pressers spoke volumes by what wasn't said.  

It would cost way too much - and be too big a risk - to trade up for Haskins.

If a decision was made to move on from Keenum, one thing I could see happening is getting Joe Flacco - particularly with the connection with Kubiak. It would give a little space - all Elway to stack picks for 2020 and take a QB then.

Now drafting a QB is a crap-shoot - unless you are talking about a QB that is genuinely a top two pick (and even then it isn't guaranteed). If drafting a QB was easy then every team would have a HOF QB.

[Broncofan]

46 minutes ago, jolly red giant said:

It would cost way too much - and be too big a risk - to trade up for Haskins.

If a decision was made to move on from Keenum, one thing I could see happening is getting Joe Flacco - particularly with the connection with Kubiak. It would give a little space - all Elway to stack picks for 2020 and take a QB then.

Now drafting a QB is a crap-shoot - unless you are talking about a QB that is genuinely a top two pick (and even then it isn't guaranteed). If drafting a QB was easy then every team would have a HOF QB.

My plan A has always been to hit 2020 hard and that’s still my preference.   But to be clear from the earlier post the only QB I think merits Rd1 consideration in 2019 is Haskins (and that’s even with breaking my ideal criteria of 2+ years of work to evaluate).    

But yeah the price for him is going to be nuts.   My point was more that teams ahead of us have us outgunned even if we thought it was worth going for him.  And Gettleman has shown the history to be willing to do what it takes no matter what. When they have position on us I just don’t see it as realistic.  

Re: Flacco the problem is committing 18M more to the 10M dead money (and 21M if we somehow cut him) and the picks traded to get him.   If it was a long term solution sure.  But Flacco’s play has been declining and that’s worrisome at his stage in his career.  Probably still better than Keenum but seems like a stopgap that costs $/picks and only makes us 1-2 games better.  

For a temp solution I’d rather just suffer through Keenum and get the higher 1st round  pick his play will help provide than with another guy lol.  But also keep hitting cheap ideas this year (or anything that makes hitting 2020 hard more doable - day 2 picks probably more realistic as added capital).

Edited January 3, 2019 by Broncofan